Venezuela News And ViewsVenezuela News And Views: The crisis has taken up residence
Venezuela News And Views
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
The crisis has taken up residence
I have lived the start of the crisis while I was traveling and paid little attention to it. First, there was nothing I could do about. Second, who knows when I will be able to indulge myself in leisure travel again. And third I know that Venezuela will be hit particularly hard, so why worry in advance? Thus my surprise returning to see that irresponsible of Chavez saying that we are safe, "blindado" is the word he used, an expression that can be added as of now to the catalogue of famous last words.
Anyway, I will not bore further the readers of this blog with my own version of the coming Venezuelan crisis since the editorial of Veneconomy says it all clear and loud. As such it is worth reposting here in its integrity:
The crisis that originated in the north has not only become entrenched in the United States, but has also extended worldwide.
A brief explanation of the origin of this crisis would be that successive US governments allowed the economy to be sustained for too long on consumption and not on investment that generates productive capacity. So, in order to promote consumption, policies based on excessively low interest rates, surplus liquidity, and a lack of supervision and transparency were promoted, and, above all, excesses were permitted in the financial system.
The present crisis in the United States is so deep-rooted that the rescue package approved last week by Congress will only suffice to avoid a collapse of the financial system, but not the recession that is in the making in the United States, Europe, Latin America, and the rest of the world.
Spokespersons of the Venezuelan Government -starting with the President himself- cut sorry figures when they insist on denying the obvious and are not only bent on making political hay out of the crisis to further their obsolete political project but extol their financial “strategies,” saying that they are preventing the country from being affected by the crisis. That is a cock-and-bull story.
The fact is that, in Venezuela, Hugo Chávez has implemented the same wrong-headed policy based on consumption and not on investment in production that was implemented in the north, including low interest rates, excess liquidity, and a lack of supervision and transparency in the handling of public and private funds. In short, the local model is the same as the model used in the north. The only difference is that the means of support of Venezuela’s model is the price of oil. And now the times of high prices have come to an end.
According to unofficial data, on Friday, October 3, the price of Venezuelan oil had dropped to $83/bbl; and according to a Merrill Lynch report, the price of WTI will fall to $50/bbl by mid-2009, which means that the price of Venezuelan barrel would be around $40. Even with the barrel of oil at $80, the Chávez administration would no longer be able to continue with its oil-diplomacy and its system of handouts via the “missions” or social programs, and it would also find it uphill work to maintain its astronomical level of public spending.
Faced with this situation, the government has two alternatives: either to maintain spending at current levels, which would lead to hyperinflation, or cut back spending and unleash a sudden contraction of the economy, both of which would lead inevitably to an unprecedented economic crisis in Venezuela.
At the risk of adding insult to injury, VenEconomy insists that, if, in this past decade, the government had respected the rule of law, promoted investment, encouraged production, and generated productive employment, today, the country would be in a position to cope with this world recession.
So, instead of boasting about successes that are no more than mirages, the Chávez administration should be designing corrective measures to mitigate the crisis, which is already hitting Venezuelans.
Written from the Venezuelan provinces, this blog started as private letters to my friends overseas, letters narrating the difficult days of the 2002/2003 strike in Venezuela. These letters became this mix of news, comments, pictures of the Venezuelan situation. Unknowingly, I have written the diary of Venezuela slow descent into authoritarianism, the slow erosion of our liberties, the takeover of the country by a military caste, the surrendering of our soul to our inner demons.
Click logo above to go directly to the English language blog. Click here to go to the Spanish language mirror.
Estamos en Venezuela, nunca se sabe. In spite of its Spanish title, an irregular blog about a French student observing Venezuela. Interesting pictures.
General info and discontinued blogs but with good archives
Venezuela Crisis has a visual and textual record "hors pair" of the recent electoral campaign in Venezuela, the first blogger to have covered live a Venezuelan campaign. Seems to be on a resting phase for a few weeks.
Digital papers with Venezuela and LatAm in mind (in Spanish)
There are two major digital papers with forums and all, for a permanent clash between factions. Noticiero Digital is the oldest one and Noticias 24 is giving it a run for tis money.
And a new comer:Venezuela es noticia.
Ciudadania Activa has a large selection of articles on Venezuelan politics and civil rights issues.
Relevant info to expose some of the regime's propaganda and human rights violations
The lies of April
The famous "infamous" video "The revolution will not be televised" has been duly analyzed and shown to be in large measure a crass manipulation. Counter-video in Spanish here, and summary of main points here.
There is a documentary that follows the April 2002 events from the perspective on what Chavez did that April 11, "La Cadena". It is about the forced broadcast made by Chavez to hide the massacre of the pacific march on Miraflores.
The infamous apartheid like system of the Tascon and Maisanta lists
The compilation of various documents from Miguel.
The video "La Lista" and my reviews in English and Spanish by invitation at Hispalibertas.
The El Nacional review of Perez Oramas.
The original video itself can be seen here.
Diverse Human Rights pages
Of course, from Amnesty International to the Human Rights Watch page, without forgetting local organizations such as prestigious COFAVIC, the Venezuelan government comes only too often lacking in its Human Rights record.
OTHER FOLKS WITH VENEZUELA MORE OR LESS IN THEIR MIND (Please send links that should be added here)
And of course to be fair there must be links to pro-Chavez sites. I do pride myself of having been the first opposition blog to have listed pro Chavez links; a situation that has now changed. However extremely rare is the pro Chavez page or blog that links to any of the sites listed above. The readers might draw their own conclusion
Aporrea (Beat up, bruise! as in the imperative mode of the verb; the only interesting one if you can read Spanish. Predicts the future)
And of course the full time propaganda agencies, ALL at tax payer expenses, the National Radio coverage, RNV, and the rather deficient official news agency, ABN (both in Spanish).
Without forgetting the "official" newsletter in English.
Some blogs, more or less sycophantic.
Yosmary, campaigning for Mario Silva, quite something.
Less sycophantic, even critical on occasion Terreno baldio.
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Map of Venezuela to help you locate the different locales mentioned through the blog (click here for a more detailed map)
For the memories. The picture below dates from the epic days of the December 2002/January 2003 "El Paro", when the opposition was strong and decided, and when Chavez was low in polls.
Then came the "misiones" and the worst populist episode of our history. Through pacific protests and strikes we tried to preserve democracy.
History proved us right even if we lost that battle.
Marching toward Hotel Melia, 01/31/03, 5 PM.
Small yellow square under the Pepsi ball is the big stage.
A special thanks to JoAnne Schmitz for the suggestions and help in setting this blog up.
