The surprise of the Colombian election is former Bogota Mayor Antanas Mockus. But the surprise continues as for the first time a poll puts him winning the second round ballot! As such poor Antanas must get ready for increasing pressure as the other guys surprised, never expecting him, are going to quickly target him, just as Tories and Labor are trying to pull a number on Clegg of the Liberal Democrats.
Mockus already prepares himself. He tries to look stern in front of Chavez but not as extremist as front runner Santos. In fact some suggest that Santos is better for Chavez than Mockus as Chavez has never quite got the handle on making Obama public enemy Nº1 as Bush was. He certainly does not need an Obama clone next door.
But besides this trivia on Chavez it is interesting to notice that in Latin America good tenure is far from guaranteeing that your successor will be of the same party. Piñera beat the Concertacion in spite of Bachelet astronomical favorable ratings. Dilma Roussef in Brazil trails significantly Serra in spite of all the efforts of her boss Lula. Now Uribe cannot seem to impose his anointed heir, Santos. Interesting.... It seems that only bad, perverse and sectarian governments are able to reelect themselves.