But let's g back to reality. The real reason why Chavez is suspending his trip to Cuba is that his recent actions are failing dismally to raise people patriotic spirit, be it the necrophiliac shows with Bolivar remains, or the breaking up of relations with Colombia. I cannot vouch for the the whole country but from Caracas the news is that no one gives a shit, and I can vouch that in San Felipe folks are much more concerned about finding Harina P.A.N. than worrying about whether Colombian soldiers are about to crash into their homes. though maybe I am misinformed and my eyes betrayed me and people are trying to stock up in case of war?
No, the reality is that Chavez screamed "wolf!" once too many and he is getting at best a blank stare from the people, though of course the usual sycophants are crawling over each other to proclaim their support to the beloved micomandantepresidente. So Chavez needs to stay home and work more diligently at trying to make the situation more relevant to his sagging political fortunes. He started by accusing the border governors of treason without any evidence, but demanding that evidence is presented to him. We are sure that someone somewhere will find a picture of, say, Perez vivas shaking hands with a Colombian tourist in San Cristobal as the definite incriminating proof to arrest him and recover Tachira for chavismo. People on Venezuela are in exile for less than that, ask Patricia Poleo for example. Accusing Pablo Perez of Zulia is going to be easier because Chavez knows already that the invasion will be coming through Zulia with the governor waving, we presume, Colombian flags. After all, Zulia did hesitate in 1830 between Venezuela and Colombia and in these days of necrophilia it is useful to remember such ghosts from our past.
But I need to apologize, I still cannot be serious enough. Here I go again:
- The US through Colombia does not need to invade Venezuela to see the end of Chavez. He is working hard at that himself and while he he does seances at the National Pantheon with Bolivar's bones, he is not taking any step to solve our economic crisis, or increase our oil production or export through simple measures such as diminishing our consumption by increasing the price of gas or electricity.Folks, THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE ANY MILITARY ACTION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PERIOD. Colombia has no interest as the mere accusations is going to force at least a re-localization of the camps and thus temporary inactivity; and Venezuela is no shape whatsoever to tackle any action.
- Colombia know very well that Venezuela's army is in deep decomposition, mined by corruption and absolute lack of training. This time around they did not bother sending a single extra soldier to the border, nor did Venezuela for that matter. There is no will for war even if today suddenly Chavez is screaming bloody invasion. Even his timing for that sucks, not having bothered before to seal the borders except for closing a few consulates.
- And even if there were really any bellicose feeling in Colombia it would be at the level of aerial raids to bomb the camps. but the time has not come yet because after the presentation at the OAS Colombia needs to wait a few weeks before the international conciliation and pacification effort fails in order to have a valid excuse to bomb Ivan Marquez, wherever it is he is hiding in Venezuela....
So why is Chavez today with such a war language? The answer could be found in a tweet from ElCiudadano who wonders aloud what the latest number of pollster Seijas are, the pollster of the regime. Apparently Chavez alternative strategies have not been working so far so he needs to stay at home and try something else such as saying that the representatives elected by the opposition will work to surrender Venezuela to Colombia. He should not be upset about that, when you think of it, after all he wants the rebirth of the Gran Colombia, though he would prefer to be the one marching in triumph in the streets of Bogota........ Interestingly at a PSUV mass act today Chavez subconscious betrayed him as he asked the PSUV to work hard to make sure the opposition does not get close to the 50% seats, an admission that his numbers point that way, if you ask me, the amateur psychologist.
To give you a thrill there this 9 minutes video from Globovision where Chavez among many things accuses the US of all evil and rehabilitates Noriega, accusing the US of having killed thousands in Panama and never been able to prove anything against Noriega. In addition of course of some of the stuff I wrote above. Also, so that people cannot accuse me to be unfair, this meeting is the best attendance that Chaevz has managed recently. Seems that his supporters are getting scared enough that attendance is up.