Sunday, July 25, 2010

Paranoia News and Views

Poor Chavez!  He had to cancel his trip to Cuba to commemorate who knows what act of Castro heroism (Castro doe shave acts of heroism compared to the lack of these in Chavez) because an attack from Colombia is imminent.  It is BBC mundo that tells us that, I suppose because they take Chavez words at their value.  They also tell us that Chavez will stop selling oil to the US if necessary ans that we will be eating stones if necessary, anything to save our dignity.  Well, the eating stones thing I got from a center right paper in Span, El Mundo, who loves to collects these cute sayings of Chavez.  Apparently El Mundo also understands Chavez as saying that the Colombia presented evidence is just like the one for justifying Iraq.  At least, if this is true, we can congratulate ourselves for the progress made by US intelligence services since now we have accurate map locations and plenty of videos and pictures, what was sorely lacking in Iraq.


But let's g back to reality.  The real reason why Chavez is suspending his trip to Cuba is that his recent actions are failing dismally to raise people patriotic spirit, be it the necrophiliac shows with Bolivar remains, or the breaking up of relations with Colombia.  I cannot vouch for the the whole country but from Caracas the news is that no one gives a shit, and I can vouch that in San Felipe folks are much more concerned about finding Harina P.A.N. than worrying about whether Colombian soldiers are about to crash into their homes.   though maybe I am misinformed and my eyes betrayed me and people are trying to stock up in case of war?

No, the reality is that Chavez screamed "wolf!" once too many and he is getting at best a blank stare from the people, though of course the usual sycophants are crawling over each other to proclaim their support to the beloved micomandantepresidente.  So Chavez needs to stay home and work more diligently at trying to make the situation more relevant to his sagging political fortunes.  He started by accusing the border governors of treason without any evidence, but demanding that evidence is presented to him.  We are sure that someone somewhere will find a picture of, say, Perez vivas shaking hands with a Colombian tourist in San Cristobal as the definite incriminating proof to arrest him and recover Tachira for chavismo.  People on Venezuela are in exile for less than that, ask Patricia Poleo for example.  Accusing Pablo Perez of Zulia is going to be easier because Chavez knows already that the invasion will be coming through Zulia with the governor waving, we presume, Colombian flags.  After all, Zulia did hesitate in 1830 between Venezuela and Colombia and in these days of necrophilia it is useful to remember such ghosts from our past.

But I need to apologize, I still cannot be serious enough.  Here I go again:
- The US through Colombia does not need to invade Venezuela to see the end of Chavez.  He is working hard at that himself and while he he does seances at the National Pantheon with Bolivar's bones, he is not taking any step to solve our economic crisis, or increase our oil production or export through simple measures such as diminishing our consumption by increasing the price of gas or electricity.

- Colombia know very well that Venezuela's army is in deep decomposition, mined by corruption and absolute lack of training.  This time around they did not bother sending a single extra soldier to the border, nor did Venezuela for that matter.  There is no will for war even if today suddenly Chavez is screaming bloody invasion.  Even his timing for that sucks, not having bothered before to seal the borders except for closing a few consulates.

-  And even if there were really any bellicose feeling in Colombia it would be at the level of aerial raids to bomb the camps.  but the time has not come yet because after the presentation at the OAS Colombia needs to wait a few weeks before the international conciliation and pacification effort fails in order to have a valid excuse to bomb Ivan Marquez, wherever it is he is hiding in Venezuela....
Folks, THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE ANY MILITARY ACTION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  PERIOD.  Colombia has no interest as the mere accusations is going to force at least a re-localization of the camps and thus temporary inactivity; and Venezuela is no shape whatsoever to tackle any action.

So why is Chavez today with such a war language?  The answer could be found in a tweet from ElCiudadano who wonders aloud what the latest number of pollster Seijas are, the pollster of the regime.  Apparently Chavez alternative strategies have not been working so far so he needs to stay at home and try something else such as saying that the representatives elected by the opposition will work to surrender Venezuela to Colombia.  He should not be upset about that, when you think of it, after all he wants the rebirth of the Gran Colombia, though he would prefer to be the one marching in triumph in the streets of Bogota........  Interestingly at a PSUV mass act today Chavez subconscious betrayed him as he asked the PSUV to work hard to make sure the opposition does not get close to the 50% seats, an admission that his numbers point that way, if you ask me, the amateur psychologist.

To give you a thrill there this 9 minutes video from Globovision where Chavez among many things accuses the US of all evil and rehabilitates Noriega, accusing the US of having killed thousands in Panama and never been able to prove anything against Noriega.  In addition of course of some of the stuff I wrote above.  Also, so that people cannot accuse me to be unfair, this meeting is the best attendance that Chaevz has managed recently.  Seems that his supporters are getting scared enough that attendance is up.

17 comments:

  1. Anonymous6:40 PM

    I can't watch the video (too many murderous feelings already), so I have to ask: Is Chavez still referring to Noriega as "The President of Panamá"?

    It's an odd Freudian Slip that Chavez continues to call him that even though Noriega was never officially elected the president of anything. He was the de facto dictator, sure, but never took part of any election in Panamá, much less won anything.

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  2. Anonymous

    Wait a little bit more and Chavez might one day rehabilitate much worse than Noriega.

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  3. Anonymous7:10 PM

    He want to cut the export of oil to the US. Well, since his country own Citgo in the US, the US government should and will one day take his little oil company away from him.

    Oh I which for the day when this tyrant meet is maker.

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  4. Anonymous7:44 PM

    They are trying to increase production. Right now PDVSA-INTEVEP are forming a "Dream Team" to increase from below 2 million to 3 million in THREE MONTHS.

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  5. Bob Sacamano7:58 PM

    Oh boy, I'd love to see that MF stopping the oil delivery for the USA... That would be the day, right.

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  6. torres9:02 PM

    Is it me, or does chavez's bald spot look a lot like the horse looked on the flag, before chavez (i.e., looking back while running away from left)?

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  7. Boludo Tejano9:17 PM

    He is definitely scared that he will end up the way Noriega or Saddam did.

    Since I have never been subjected to a cadena, I find Thugo to be at times an entertaining, if not truthful, speaker. I listen to him in small doses though: maybe five minutes a month. [I have difficulty dealing with the speed of the Caribe accent. Thugo at least speaks slowly.] More than than five minutes a month of Thugo and I would probably gag. My favorite was "Yanqui de Mierda." Unfortunately for Venezuela, he is not just an entertainer, but an astute dictator: at least astute enough to survive so far.

    His talking about Colombian military groups, potential or actual, FARC or paramilitaries, was confusing, to say the least..."hasta la Isla Margarita."

    I wonder if he was deliberately confusing things. President Eisenhower was known to do that at press conferences on occasion.

    Sounds as if he is trying to set up Venezuela as being the victim of Colombian incursions, which does have its truth. As we all know, that bypasses his support of same.

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  8. I think Colombia's applying the "prod the frog in the butt" strategy at the moment. This means taking actions like the OEA presentation and then watching Chavez hop up and down and going into his own "cry wolf, the Colombians/Yanquis are coming!" mode.

    As has been said in this posting, after a while, fewer and fewer Venezuelans take Chavez seriously (although I might say that works both ways; fewer and fewer Venezuelans care that Chavez is methodically removing their democratic freedoms).

    The Colombians have another opportunity to prod Chavez in the upcoming, hastily convened UNASUR meeting (done at Chavez's behest). I'm sure that Chavez and Correa are hoping that UNASUR will be payback time, but I don't think the Colombians are going to cooperate; rather it's going to be another Colombian expose of FARC presence/mischief in Venezuela, is my bet.

    Re: any kind of attack on FARC camps in VZ, I think Daniel's right - for the time being. My guess is that the Colombians will keep up the political/psychological pressure until after the September elections, evaluate the results of those elections, and then make their military move.

    Unless the FARC signals something radical, something to the effect that they want to negotiate peace, the GOC's not going to let them stay there untouched. They'll do something, but they're going to take their time and in meantime, seek to further weaken Chavez politically, both domestically and internationally...

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  9. Anonymous5:43 AM

    Saber rattling for the Septmeber election is the only thing going on right now.

    According to the US gov, imports of Venezuela oil is about 851,000 bbls/day, down 30% since Hugo came to power. Of the 20K per day the USA uses, that amount is easy enough to replace. If it weren't for the sufferering of the worst off in Venezuela, I'd be first in line to advocate a boycott of Venezuela oil. Just don't want to see anyone but Chavez eating stones.

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  10. Boludo,

    My favourite is "la oposición tuvo una victoria de mierda, mierda, mierdaaaaaa". Another one is "yo soy el pueblo y exijo lealtad absoluta". Another one is "mankind is like 20 centuries old, isn't it? 25?"
    Oh, there is so much material!
    But again: I don't have to listen to the cadenas.

    Daniel,
    I wrote in Miguel's latest about a German article on Cuba. It seems the Prison Island is more desperate than ever and just hoping the EU will finance them for the 52 prisoners the regime released. The PDVSA bloke was there to negotiate more aid, but it is becoming more and more difficult even for him to see what Cuba can give to Chávez (other than thugs from the repression system).
    I want to see Chávez in prison, probably in Tocuyito

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  11. I had the opportunity this past Saturday to spend the day with family members, one of whom invited an old acquaintance who happened to be a high up Military man who dogmatically supports " micomandante".I was fascinated to be able to hear his version of his forced closing of a radio station in ( a certain State that I will not name) some years ago.I say fascinated because this was actually the first time I was able to hear a personal account of this type by a person who spoke freely, in detail, and proudly of how he supports and defends Chavez in this type of endeavor.I know some people who advise Chavez but this is the first experience where I was able to interview someone on the ground doing his dirty work.

    I listened for hours in as detached a way as I am capable of( and I can be pretty detached when I decide to be)...in order to take it all in as much as possible.He said that he was defending his poor comandante because the opposition already owned around 200 emisoras and the government didn't have any.Yeah sure :)Like the government was so poor ;)

    Then as he proceeded to detail all of his take over actions, one thing stood out to me as in a sudden flash was when I saw his 'essential way of being' as he remarked that he kicked the opposition out of the station and added:

    " don't think I told him to leave in a nice way like I am talking now, because I told him in a very strong way to leave".As he said that I could feel his pride in his own self image as a strongman,and his total lack of democratic values, not to mention his blind loyalty to' el comandate'..AND MAN-this gave me the chills.I felt like I was talking to a Mafia boss who calmly and with a phony evil smile was saying something like"Kill him slowly"

    The guy's children live here in the US and do not want to return to Venezuela.They seemed 100 % ashamed of their father.

    It was clear to me that the values this man has are so alien to the values of most people in the US that the gulf is fathomless.

    His kids said they want to bring him to the US in some years( God forbid) but he does not want to come because of what he called a " conflict of interests should a war between the 2 countries break out.Someone at the table said that conflict should last about 20 minutes..

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  12. Boludo Tejano10:14 AM

    Kepler, I had forgotten about those. Yes, they were outstanding examples of the genre. I guess I had a selective memory in coming up with a Yanqui-centric example.

    We are fortunate not to be subjected to his cadenas, among other things.

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  13. Kepler, I hope he ends up in Marion, IL max lockdown, like Noriega, or en La Haya for nice show trial, one of these days...

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  14. I don't know about Marion Il. If he goes to The Hague I hope it is just for the trial. I think he has to serve his 30 years in Tocuyito.
    That is officially the "Internado Judicial de Carabobo" (search for Carabobo here

    (or google image cárcel Tocuyito)

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  15. Re Noriega: To Chavez, having the U.S. oppose someone is more legitimizing than any election. Therefore Noriega was the legitimate President of Panama (and still should be, by his logic, since he was removed against his will), regardless of what the people said at the polls, before or since.

    That IS a lot of people at the rally, despite the number of empty seats in the pavilion. I wonder if they raised the payment.

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  16. AIO

    Scare factor plays a role. Many suddenly feel they could lose their fake job if chavismo is out of office. they might hate these rallies but they decided to attend them again.

    Plus, of course, there might have been an extra bonus attached....

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  17. Daniel, true. Since different people have different pressure points, it is smart strategy to try more than one tactic. Since this was the kickoff, of a phase of the electoral campaign, I suspect that the amount of money potentially involved (over the course of the campaign) is somewhat more than a one-off gift for attending the rally of the day, and not showing up that day would have made them ineligible for the rest. But that's just for those who aren't already public employees.

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