Sunday, April 10, 2011

Exit polls in Peru: worst case scenario becomes true!

UPDATED 2.   When I wrote yesterday about Peru I said that if Humala got more than 30% of the vote his chances for the second round would be believable.  First exit polls give him 31-32%.

If this was not already bad enough he gets, at least for the time being, Keiko Fujimori as his adversary for the second round.  Exit polls give her slightly ahead of Kuczynski, but ahead in more than one poll nevertheless.  Thus the margin of error is sort of annulled by the agreement between pollsters.

Can you imagine Toledo, Castañeda and the APRA calling to vote for the second round for Fujimori's daughter?  I mean, she is not like her father and has given evidence of being a democrat, at least as much as Humala.  But still, Humala got the opponent he wanted.

Then again, Kuczyinski and Fujimori together are above Humala and this one should not have problem endorsing Keiko.

I am afraid that Peruvians will have to go to the second round holding their nose and voting for Fujimori's daughter, another pathetic case of lesser than two evils....  At least no one got a parliamentary majority so we know that Peru has still a chance to survive this ordeal.

Oh why, oh why must we be subjected in this continent to shit like that, from a never ending Peronism to the Venezuelan narco state?

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Update.1  Indeed by now it is certain that Keiko and Ollanta will face off in two months, the longest months in Peruvian history.  According to Vargas Llosa it is like choosing between AIDS and Cancer.  For him Humala will ruin Peru's prosperity because of his resentment and his ties to Chavez, made them "Brazilian looking" through advisers.  Keiko Fujimori will release all the bandits in jail (Montesinos) and those will go directly to high public jobs...

I do not think one should be so negative as neither Keiko nor Ollanta will have even 30% of congress and thus the 40%+ of the center parties whose inexcusable division allowed such a disaster will have the chance to redeem themsleves by forming a controlling block.

The surprise for me, as I kept reading their bios is that both of them did have access to decent education and none of them is an idiot.  But Humala seem unable to grow out of his prejudices while Fujimori is doing this for her father, Far East ancestor cult style.  At least between them I would pick Keiko because as the younger person she might still be able to learn more than Humala who in my view is unable to learn, just as Chavez cannot learn, just develop new tricks through experience.

From here the only thing that I can see is for the three losing candidates to form a front, to meet with Fujimori, exact serious guarantees and go against Humala.  It is possible, they have two months for it, to make it credible for the country.  I would not advise to try the same with Humala because Humala is advised by Chavez and Lula who have demonstrated time and again to be experts in betrayal, to sign anything just to dismiss it at the very first opportunity.

As reader Milonga says, Keiko is like Cancer, you might get cured with some luck.  Ollanta is like HIV, once you get it, it is there for life, like chavismo or peronismo.  Some days you OK, some others you do not.

Update 2: so I am getting ready to go to bed and I checked once again.  Now the ONPE, the electoral organization of Peru, is emitting REAL results and with 43% of the vote counted it looks like Kuczynski is now in second with 100.000 votes more than Fujilori!!!!  Of course there is no way to know whether this lead can hold since I do not know the electoral history of Peru at the provincial level to see if Fujimori can still come back-

My head is spinning and the prospect of the verbiage I wrote above for naught is too much to take at midnight.  Good night!

PS: even if the OPNE is rather slow compared to other countries, it still beats hand down the Venezuelan CNE.....

6 comments:

  1. Milonga6:51 PM

    Worse case scenario is the understatement of the year! There's still a slim chance PPK is the second runner up... that's what everyone is praying for... Why oh why? Because our countries still live in ignorance, Chavez's petrol money is given freely, and people do exchange a vote for lolipops! Terrible! Count on Keiko being the next president. Vargas Llosa said that if both went to ballotage it will be a choice between terminal cancer and Aids. Well, Aids doesn't kill nowadays as before, while terminal cancer (Humala) does. What a terrible choice! #prayforperu is a Trending Topic in Twitter!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous8:10 PM

    "Oh why, oh why must we be subjected in this continent to shit like that, from a never ending Peronism to the Venezuelan narco state?"

    Hard-working, competent, intelligent people do not become politicians. Only 3 kinds of people enter politics:

    1- Those who want to take home a juicy paycheck from their job without having to do any actual working.

    2- The egomaniacal narcissists who want power for the sake of power and/or to avenge the wrongs committed against them.

    3- The deluded dreamers who believe they can make the word a better place, which almost invariably involves getting everyone to hold hands and sing "kumbaya" or some other retarded pseudo-hippie method that betrays their absolute disconnection with reality.

    Or, in the case of Venezuela, you get all those in the same guy.

    ReplyDelete
  3. anonymous

    i would like to agree with you but the problem is that chavez works hard, very , very hard. but his work is absolutely unproductive, totally destructive.

    i think you need to come up with yet another 4th item, related to ignorance and lack of education?

    ReplyDelete
  4. As of this morning, Fujimori is back in second place. Despite her flaws, she would be better than Humala. I know he has tried to soften his image by surrounding himself with Lulaites but his platform is puro chavista. Under him, Peru would join Chavez kiss up society (ALBA) and adopt a reflexively anti-American foreign policy and hyperpopulist domestic policy.

    I also notice, based on the results so far, Humala underperformed the exit poll results and his 2006 first round percentage. Much does depend on the what the losers do. I thought Toledo was okay but he has a choice, does he go for spite (against Fujimori) or against destructive policies (against Humala)?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Eduardo10:34 AM

    As 07:30 morning in Peru, tendences favor that Keiko Fujimori will be in the second round.

    You must notice that ONPE includes first the results coming from big cities, and these people favour the more conservative candidates.

    Afterwards, the results from far away towns begiun to be included, and there Ollanta Humala and Keiko Fujimori have and advantage.

    The same happened on 2006, when the initial results gave Lourdes Flores a second place.

    Kuscynsky need at least five points of advantage in Lima to be sure that he could be in the second place.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Ancestor worship to me is no worse than fanatical believing in anything else, and being young makes one learn more quickly how to operate a smart phone, but it does NOT make wisdom easier to come by.

    Having said that I would prefer Keiko to Humala simply because I doubt she would ruin the economy and might be easier to get rid of if not good enough.

    When observing her face while talking I saw that she has an iron will.How she uses that will is to be seen.

    The fact that she will have to govern with other parties is a moderating factor.The Chavistas would be much harder to constrain, with the oil price so high, they would start buying up congressmen from the first day.

    ReplyDelete

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