Sunday, October 16, 2011

Socialist primaries in France: conclusion

To remind us how lousy the CNE in Venezuela is, the socialist primaries in France barely concluded and Le Monde has already a graphic up with the winner in each French department.  73% already counted, Aubry already conceding and appearing in public with Hollande.

Thus we can gather yet more lessons for the coming primary in Venezuela, the one of La Unidad in February 2012:

- Do not let the CNE hold your total votes announcement since you are allowing the CNE to "help you out". That is, make it sure that there will be no more than one hour between the closing of the last voting station and the announcement. In other words you are renting the services of the CNE, not their counting procedures.

- Do not be afraid to say that the race is too close to call BUT GIVE RESULTS A.S.A.P.

- Be sure that by 4 PM all candidates are back in Caracas ready to have their picture taken all together around 6 PM at the latest.  I would go as far as to request from every candidate a draft of the concession speech, even from the favorite(s).

- Do not worry about candidates campaigning even on primary day as long as it is low key.  Experience in France and the US show us that the dices are rolled before the first vote is cast.

- Get on your web page a cute page like that to graphically represent the results by state and municipios.  Or something equally cute.

As for what this means for France?  Well, the socialists have managed a complex situation quite well, they have made a show of democracy and they are now the front runner for next year presidential and legislative elections.  The more so that the winner is Hollande from the more moderate wing of the party (still to the left of almost any European Socialist party).  Now it is for him to lose the election, which is still possible considering how stupid the French left is and how nonplussed by the current irredente protest Hollande is.  We can be certain that there will be a far left candidate trying to benefit from the current wave of indignados and other irrelevant groups.  We will see how hard they swallow to vote for Hollande in the second round.

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