This is kind of a useless post but since I am on vacation, and drinking wine as I type, I thought I could indulge in commenting about the guys who signed up to run for governor in December 2012.
First, why is this post useless? The main factor here is that the presidential election is on October 7 and we need to wait two full months before voting for governor in December. So judging a primary option when the vote is so distant is akin to some form of politico-intellectual masturbation. Never mind that a winning Chavez could well scuttle governor elections.
Also let's not forget that most people will follow the primary campaign for presidential and many will vote for governor primaries based on what they feel about the presidential candidate. Saying that X, supported by Y, should carry Z state is almost ridiculous if suddenly W is leading, Y is sinking and suddenly Ñ becomes the favorite in Z state, for that mere tendency.
This caveat made, let's have fun.
I am not going to list all details in all states because I am on vacation and also because I am not familiar with all the candidates. So there are the few where I dare to describe a starting line, sure that I will be proven wrong in most of them when February comes.
These have the peculiarity that UNT, AD and Copei have some strength as PJ and others are still building their electoral machinery. Thus the outcome in these states will depend a lot on how long Pablo Perez coat tail is, and if he is ahead.
Zulia, Lara and Tachira have no primaries, the opposition having decided "unanimously" on the candidate. Oh, well...
In Merida we have the mayor of the capital supported by COPEI and PJ. He should overcome without much problem the one supported by AD. And after the primary he should be in good position to take the state away from chavismo.
Trujillo? who cares, the chavista will win.
Falcon is major possible gain for the Unidad and thus the fight for the primary will be fierce. three candidates are fighting out, from Copei, AD and the latest rather counter nature coalition of PODEMOS PJ. It is one of the first three races to watch because primary participation is going to be a determinant in the Unidad chances to get a state that has been in chavista hands since 2000.
Yaracuy is as pathetic as ever. My home state will sort it out between Biaggio Pilieri of dubious heroic status early this year and Victor Moreno, ex mayor of San Felipe. Victor is the card of PJ and is a better candidate even if both are for me me questionable. If Moreno can convince San Felipe to vote for him again he has a chance.
Margarita will not have primaries.
Sucre has improbably 4 candidates. The battle there is between the one supported by AD and Copei and the one supported by the others. Interesting test on how well the old machinery have survived.
Monagas is a long shot for the Unidad and yet has 5 candidates. The curious note: Voluntad Popular of Leopoldo Lopez runs on its own there.
Anzoategui is the likely pick of the Unidad. We have a "classic" battle here: old parties versus new ones, both with viable candidates. Probably one of the top three races to watch.
On view of the candidates proposed I bet that most states will remain chavista. Only one pathetic case to note, Cojedes, where multi defeated Galindez is trying again but without the support of AD. And one curious fact, most opposition parties are supporting Bella Petrizzio from PPT in Portuguesa. She may win the primary but I doubt she will take the state.
Carabobo has no primaries. And it should, but I digress.
Aragua should be a difficult state for the Unidad. but it has been going up there slowly but steadily and the recent PR disaster of former governor Didalco Bolivar with the very arrogant current governor puts Aragua in the not so far fetched list. Yet the primaries are weird as former opposition candidate Rosales is not running supported by PODEMOS but AD. I suspect that the PJ man will get the nod there.
Vargas is a mish mash for a state most likely to stay in chavista hands.
Miranda is the other of the top three races to watch. There Mendoza wants to make a come back. He used to be a popular governor and has remained active. But Petare mayor is running for PJ to replace Capriles running for higher office. A good battle of old versus new. And a hard one to call though if Capriles does well nationally Miranda should go to Ocariz.
Amazonas has no primaries, so PPT gets to keep two states! Well, there is only one candidate so I assume there is not going to be any primary vote.
Delta Amacuro has 5 freaking candidates and I am clueless as to what is going on there.
Bolivar has 6 candidates. Andres Velasquez wants a come back again but he keeps failing to get it. Still he has enough parties behind to make it this time around. The others are unknown to me except for the one of VP who used to be Chavez safety and rescue guy. If Lopez does well Rivero might have a chance but I think bolivar is Velasquez to lose.
Again: remember that this is all very preliminary and very dependent on how the big race goes.