Monday, September 10, 2012

A not so victorious campaign: Chavez es una encuesta ambulante

UPDATED, and worth the update

I have been trying to ignore it but there has been such silliness from the chavista side mixed to more serious stuff that a warning post is necessary.

Last Friday I was watching Diego Arria at El Ciudadano talk show promoting his latest memoir.  Asked about the poll wars, he replied one of his best lines ever, "Chavez is a walking poll" (Chavez es una encuesta ambulante).  Indeed, watchign Chavez and  his campaign can only lead one to think that these guys are smelling the winds of defeat, that they are not used to it and that they are scared.

Let's go in kind of a retrograde order to examine the evidence.


Today chavismo sent his goons, some with PDVSA caps even!, to block a Capriles electoral activity in La Pastora, the Western Area of Caracas.  True , it had happened before but it stopped for a while.  Now, in a post Amuay era, chavismo is becoming more irrational.

Last week we had the tale of a secret opposition program which was nothing less but a neo-liberal package, worse than what Carlos Andres Perez forced upon the country in 1989, leading straight to El Caracazo. There are a few things wrong with that.

First, the opposition has a well crafted plan to bring out the country of its chavista economic prostration.  I may agree in parts and disagree in parts, but that program is open, has been discussed and hides no agenda. But we have not been given, as far as I know, a bona fide copy of the supposed secret government pact of the opposition to privatize even the asses of public workers....

Second, the opposition would have had, in print, a "secret program"? PLEAAAASE.....  I am no Capriles but I am sure that if I were in his shoes and secretly planning to privatize the Virgen del Valle sanctuary I would not need to have it in print, it will be all traced quite simply in my memory.

Third, the actors chosen to advance this latest conspiracy theory are losers, big time.  First it was David de Lima, who was governor of Anzoategui, calling early in his term Chavez a god, but expelled for corruption anyway.  Even when he defected for the opposition he was not able to be warmly welcome like Henri Falcon of Lara.  de Lima had disappeared from the front scene, failing to make any mark in opposotion primaries and probably loaded with defense debts seems to ave come back to chavismo.  Then, surprise, the argument for neo-liberal package conspiracy was taken by William Ojeda.  He is better than de Lima, I even had some nice words for him in my blog (he was one of the early deserters of Chavez camp).  But the poor guy simply cannot win anything inside the opposition. His representative seat he got it after "arrangement". He failed to win the Petare primary and was miffed when his fraud claim were dismissed and his new party refused to support him on that. So his attack this week, when he should have known better as I am sure he participated or knew of people who participated in the program writing, is simply a spoiled brat reaction.

But these above are close to folklore without major effect in the ending campaign (I am sparing you the US mercenary story, a mercenary that had all his instructions on a paper pad).  What is much graver, and could have more effect are the accusations of coup mongering and civil war.

Let´s look at the possibility of the opposition to make a coup.  None. I mean, polls are favorable, why rock the boat. Also, even if the MUD were in the mood of a coup d'etat, how, HOW, could it proceed today? If Chavez has achieved something is a mollified and corrupt and fat army that is not going to jeopardize its benefits either to support him or to overthrow him.

As for defending a victory if its stolen by Chavez, who could blame them?  At any rate the initiator of the civil war would be Chavez by refusing to recognize the result.

But the real purpose is elsewhere in all of these actions.  Chavismo has noticed that too many foreign media are sending newbies to Venezuela and many of these take everything at face value, not imaging that a government can lie at such level.  for example the dispatched of Reuters this year almost sounded to a tee pro Chavez even though they seem a little bit better lately.  thus chavismo is starting some form of character assassination that would justify his not recognition of October results. In short, he would justify his oncoming violence against the opposition because he "knew" they were going to be violent.

Unfortunately it probably will not work.  First, not all journalists are that stupid and within a few weeks in Venezuela they all know better except for a few eternally deluded, and payed for that, like some of the guys showing up at VTV talk shows. Second, a few people are sending messages to chavismo.  If we can imagine that several countries must have warned that enough is enough in the most confidential ways, other are more vocal like of all people, The Carter Center.

But the best sign of all is to watch Chavez who has indeed become a walking living opinion poll result. His incoherence, his inability to stick to an idea that is not an insult, his obvious exhaustion and not only from cancer but from disdain is the surest sign that chavismo feels that its days may be counted.

UPDATE

Courtesy of Gustavo Coronel I read Chavez words of yesterday in Charallave rally
“Hasta a los ricos yo creo que les conviene que gane Chávez… ellos tienen sus riquezas… tienen sus buenas casas, tienen sus buenos vehículos, a lo mejor tienen tremendos apartamentos en la playa, tienen propiedades, etc., les gusta viajar al exterior en vacaciones, etc., a ellos: ¿que les conviene, una guerra civil?"

"I think that even for the rich a Chavez victory is a good thing.... they have their riches... they have their good homes, their good cars, they may even have fantastic apartments at the beach, they have real estate, etc.. they like to travel outside the country for holidays, etc... I [tell] them: what is good for you, a civil war?"

There you have it, Chavez, the extortion master.

This was never a revolution, it was a narco-mob gang making its way to power.

17 comments:

  1. Island Canuck8:17 AM

    In what world would the president of a country be allowed to threaten a "civil war" if they lose an election? Why even bother to have the election? Just take over now & go straight to point B.

    I read on Twitter last night that before his ouster Franko of Spain threatened the same thing. We can see where that got him.

    I really don't think the Venezuelan people in the large majority, Chavista or not, will support any kind of armed conflict for very long. They need food on the table on a daily basis - no one buys for more than a day or 2. If shipments are blocked they will act based on their stomachs.

    Do I expect problems on 8O? I do. Will they last? - I don't think so.

    What has always worried me is the 3 months between the election & the turning over of power. It's way too much time for them to do many things not the least of which will be to strip the treasury of any money & leave a huge hole for HCR to fill. They will also destroy all incriminating documents related to contracts & projects which is probably 90% of the the documentation. There will be nothing there when HCR's team shows up to take over.

    We are headed for some pretty unstable months.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Be reassured: the hole is already there. They are just scraping for tidbits.

      Delete
    2. They will also destroy all incriminating documents related to contracts & projects which is probably 90% of the the documentation.

      Will there be mountains of documentation, as the Nazis produced and later tried to destroy? I always thought that the hallmark of chavismo was to avoid, as much as possible, producing any evidence on paper (or hard drives).

      Delete
    3. Does anyone remember what Capriles found when he went to take possession of the Governorship of Miranda? All offices stripped of anything of value, all of the files destroyed, and all back accounts drained.

      By the time Chavismo is done, public institutions, companies and offices will be similarly decimated. By the time this is done, all of the state enterprises will be stripped of anything that can be moved and unable to function.

      Delete
  2. Stefan9:47 AM

    "...The opposition would have had, in print, a ,secret program`?..." Let´s not forget that many Chavistas also believe in the authenticity of the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" and all sorts of conspiracy theories. So this propaganda, dumb as it is, may even work.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Of course, but for the dumb assed in the cult. Chavez campaign now is aiemd at limiting as much as possible abstention in his camp and thus he has knelled down to primal level. Not that it will work, people sense this type of thing otherwise they would never be able to leave cults...

      Delete
  3. Ronaldo10:58 AM

    Chavez is clearly trying to place the blame on the opposition for violence he plans on initiating.

    If the violence appears, social media may be the best way to stop it. Videos and photos of Thugo Chavez' storm troopers attacking civilians beamed around Venezuela and the world is the only way to get other countries to react and stop the violence. Chavez will likely try to imitate Assad in Syria, Amendinajad in Iran, and Castro in Cuba. All are illegitimate leaders who turned to violence and all have not faced international intervention. The international community must be involved from the minute any violence starts.

    Chavis has many supporters but Chavez and they will be no better than thieves if violence occurs.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The below article leaves a lot to be desired.The title says says it all :


    "Centro Carter: candidatos deben dar garantías para bajar tensión"


    They are equating both candidates in the typical "Liberal" fashion of moral equivalency.A more objective view would point out the fact that Capriles is actually almost too moderate in his desire to appease and conciliate.

    They also claim that the media is polarized while failing to point out the key fact that television is what most matters and there, Chavez has an overwhelming advantage with only Globovision ( with limited geographical coverage) as the lonely holdout.Only in the press do we have both camps present but it is much less relevant than TV is, especially for areas more pro -Chavez.

    And what about this doozy ?

    “Por un lado, hay un sistema electoral, en el sentido más estrecho del término, confiable, pero por el otro hay una sociedad profundamente polarizada y unas condiciones marcadamente inequitativas”



    Only once does the article imply that Chavez is the worse offender, when it is stated that he offers no guarantees wheras Capriles does offer them, however in the context of so much moral equivalency, it comes across as an after thought.

    The title should have read:

    HUGO CHAVEZ DEBE DAR GARANTIAS PARA BAJAR LAS TENSIONES, ASI COMO LO HIZO CAPRILES

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Outside of chavistas, I think most Venezuelan voters would dismiss outright the credibility of the Carter Center. I know I do.

      Delete
  5. Anonymous11:15 AM

    Many Chavistas have good homes, great cars, may even have fantastic apartments at the beach, and all like to travel outside the country for holidays (not to Cuba, of course). What do they want, a civil war? I think not.

    Ann19

    ReplyDelete
  6. Boy, do I ever agree with your comment, Daniel: "This was never a revolution, it was a narco-mob gang making its way to power."

    One can understand the deluded young and not-so-young, the world over, attaching themselves to the earlier manufactured fantasy of a revolution for the people.

    But you really have to question university-educated die-hards, the Eva Golingers, the Weisbrots, and those whose worldly experience may have trumped their education, such as the Sean Penns, et al.

    ReplyDelete
  7. InfoNazi2:45 PM

    I read on Twitter last night that before his ouster Franko of Spain threatened the same thing. We can see where that got him.

    I don't know about "Franko of Spain," but Francisco Franco of Spain began the Civil War in 1936, and won by 1939. Francisco Franco died in his sleep in 1975 as Generalissimo/Caudillo/President of Spain, after over three decades in power.

    Death from old age ousted Francisco Franco from power.

    Only a twit would use Twitter as a history textbook.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous7:14 PM

      And the Republicans changed clothes overnight and became the most vociferous supporters of their own defeat ! A hint of assumed pink suggested by a neighbour and it was off to the firing squad. But that was Spain.

      On the suggestion of a Chaves inspired civil war there's a good chance that he would be precipitating his much anticipated departure. I suspect there are many Latin Americans with an axe to grind. Some have waited decades, others became messy drug war enemies and some just lost too much in many different forms.

      Whilst a restrained anti Chaves Castro democratic approach under the present circumstances is admirable it may be that a stolen Opposition victory could unleash a silent yet pointed action, or series of actions, that instantaneously changes the core sources of upheaval.

      I cannot see civil unrest as recently seen in Arab countries. That being the case Chaves is only threatening. However 'be careful what you wish for', as they say?

      Delete
    2. Steve M11:06 PM

      Anonymous, why do you consistently misspell "Chavez"?

      Delete
    3. InfoNazi9:28 AM

      A hint of assumed pink suggested by a neighbour and it was off to the firing squad. But that was Spain.

      I suggest that you read George Orwell's Homage to Catalonia. The atrocities went both ways.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous5:19 PM

      Enjoyed it so much I walked the trenchlines where he fought.

      Everyone knows the atrocity business swung both ways, naive to consider otherwise.

      Mind you Franco was still signing death sentences during the seventies, before breakfast I believe.

      Delete
  8. Charly8:04 PM

    Currently reading "The Silence and the Scorpion". It confirms what a lot of us already knew, that the head honcho and his henchmen, JVR in particular will stop at nothing to stay in power, lots of blood on their hands. A sobering read especially when the guy is threatening civil war. If it happens this time, like in April 11 which he provoked, lets just hope he will be the first casualty. It nearly happened then, it could happen again.

    ReplyDelete

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