The last poll before election of Consultores 21 is out and as expected the rise of Capriles kept going on and now he is leading OUTSIDE of the error margin of 2,7%. Capriles is now leading 48,9 to 45,7. That is 3,2%. Incidentally my spread number on September 17 was 2,2 for Capriles. Thus my conservative number being below the one of Consultores 21, I am happy.
Yet this poll is for the second week of September, a full week after the latest one of Datanalisis, and post Cupira, post Amuay. So there is all possibility that Capriles may get a couple of points more before October 7 and considering his spectacular events in Tucupita, Maturin and Maracay, all indicates that yes, he is gaining further traction.
There are bad news for Chavez. The young vote is going 56,3% for Capriles. Chavez only wins in the 45 year old and more group. Clearly; change is wished for. The other even worse news is that when people were asked who they would vote Capriles lead by only 0,8% whereas when asked to drop a ballot in a box, sight unseen, that advantage rose to 3,2%, half of "undecided" suddenly voting for Capriles, none for Chavez. Clearly, a fear factor exists and if we are to believe Consultores 21 it is about 3-4% of the voting population.
Will there be another major poll before Sunday? Right now we can hope for one from Mercanalisis and Keller, and maybe a "correction" from Datanalisis which has been admitting that they think most undecided will go to Capriles if they vote and thus their result would become a statistical tie. After Sunday, no more poll publication allowed, at least inside Venezuela. Though I am sure that pro Chavez pollsters will have no problem breaking the law in Internet. But even them admit that the spread in favor of Chavez is not that big anymore. However VN&V will break the CNE embargo by publishing its last estimates next Monday <evil grin>