Friday, September 28, 2012

The 1 million vote avalanche

Some folks are talking openly about a 1 million vote advantage for Capriles. Maybe.  So, for the fun of it I tried to think about a scenario that could work out. NOTE: this is NOT a prediction, just a mind game.

I operated exactly in the reverse of my normal prediction method.  This time around, after finally updating my total voters per state, I figured out an abstention and what should Capriles get in each state until finally he gets 1 million more votes than Chavez.  After enough twikering I reached the table above.



  1. Anonymous4:44 AM

    The basic premise in the table is that regions that support Chavez will have a higher abstention rate. That is a necessary assumption for it to work out. It could happen but it it would be more interesting to just look at the Chavista abstention rate. Chavista apathy will make the election for Capriles.

  2. Island Canuck6:29 AM

    At this point with just 8 days left the die is cast.
    All will depend on who shows up on Sunday & actually votes.

    If Chavez needs planes, buses & whatever to get people to show up for him just for the photo ops then he has already lost.

    Just read a Twit where a CCS public employee has been told that all public employees are obligated to show up for Chavez' closing in CCS or they will be fired. Who are these people going to vote for come 7O?

    Will HCR get 1 million + votes on top? I think so but I'm going to stay occupied & partially drunk for the rest of the time. It's like watching paint dry waiting for 7O.

    1. Island,

      Bless your heart.I am also on pins and needles , and will be taking my IPAD when doing chores out of the house so I can check, every little bit.The stress is beginning to get to me over here -I can only imagine how it is for many of you there.

      Even so,I know with all my heart that Capriles has captured the vast majority of voters.The rest is a matter of perseverance and observation and a bit of mercy.How can they hold back the mighty tide?

      Venezuela is in all our hearts.Soon maybe we will look at the sea in Margarita, as if it were transparent or as if it were pure gold, or as if the sea were rising on the Sun...

      or as if the Sun were rising in our hearts.

      I think we are all the Sun rising, and the dawn is near.


    2. what patronizing pap from one who labels a nation as naïve.

  3. Anonymous7:25 AM

    Maybe a little O/T but why do so many women who support Chavez and men too look overweight?
    I think the average Chavez voter is heavier than the average Capriles voter?
    Also, I believe the "silent majority" of voters are women who are quietly serious about getting rid of Chavezbecause they do not trust him anymore. And, Capriles to me "feels" surprisingly trustworthy and magnetic (I am not a woman, but, I have feelings, too-ha)!!
    Anonimo #5

  4. Barrio Adentro lejos de su misión
    Capriles, mi corazon: primero hay que meter a todos los malandron en la carcel, ley de fuga y plomo al hampa. Una vez que el peligro removido de las barriadas populares, los medicos VENEZOLANOS puden ejercer su trabajo en los modulos de Barrio Adentro. La idea de Barrio Adentro es excelente pero los incapaces no la suipieron aprovechar, y como todo cobarde a imagen y semejanza del Comandante Preseimiente, no tuvieron la gallardia de imponerseles al hampa y llevar a cabo su mision a cabalidad: mejorar la calidad de vida del pueblo Veneziolano.


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