Wednesday, October 10, 2012

The 2012 Prez results: as Caucagüita votes, so does the country

Enough of you seem to have forgiven me. And so let's get started with the Sunday results. And what better place than to start with Caucagüita which has been a long running monitor in this blog, the latest entry being when I started getting ready for the 2012 speculations.  Not only it will serve as the best way to understand what happened last Sunday but it will also serve as a detailed explanation while so many people got it all wrong last Sunday. We will start with a summary table.


The CNE is accused of a lot of things so for once I decided to go back on my data to include even the null votes.  And it is interesting even if it does not give a smoking gun to blame the CNE for the evils that we, the  opposition, suffer.

First, it is worhty of notice that for the two referenda that have been the more decried elections in Venezuela, 2004 and 2007, we do not get full data as to participation  roll call, etc.  That data may exist somewhere but it is not in the CNE page open to the public. If the CNE wanted to promote conspiracy theories it would not proceed any differently.  The first three rows I made a graph for them below so I will discuss them there.  Let's look at the bottom of the table.

Registered voters. It is notable how the roll grew between 2006 and 2008. and yet, it keeps varying up and down at an appreciable level since. We are talking here a 10% range.  Do that many people die and move in Caucagüita in these 4 last years? Do we have refugees settlements there? Why was there such an increase in 2004-2008?

Abstention. This is the whole story. The chavista machine this time around got its act together and managed to increase the chavista vote by almost 6,000.  2K of these coming from recent moving in the county, by the way.

Null vote. Capriles yesterday said that he did not win Miranda outright in part because of the high null vote. Well, it is not particularly higher in Caucagüita, the second highest only so he may want to look for another excuse. However we also see that in 2004 NO ONE made a mistake, but since then a significant retard population seem to have moved in to Caucagüita. And then the CNE would like me to believe that the 2004 result was clean? Gimme a break!



And there I revisit the graph posted August 14, adding Sunday's result.  It is striking of course  But yet not without its gray areas for chavismo.

The opposition numbers. They keep increasing though at a slower pace. It is possible that indeed Caucagüita was not as happy with their governor as he would like us to think. I am eagerly waiting the results of December.

Vote ratio. In spite of all its electoral machinery, and probably voting rolls not as kosher as they should be, the vote ratio in favor of chavismo does quite not recover and it still was higher in three past elections. In fact, if we compare 2006 at 2.7 votes for every Rosales vote, at 1,7 Chavez vote this time for every Capriles vote means a long term bad sign for chavismo.

Conclusion: this is what happened all over the country  The opposition kept going up but Chavez machinery allowed him to recover his folks, though not making that many new friends besides the natural population increase of his flock. Considering how ill managed the country is, no one could expect such a successful get the vote operation.

PS: for details on the social make up of Caucagüita, as to its importance, please, refer to older posts, I cannot keep repeating myself over and over.

PS2: note that in 2004, 2008 and 2010 there was more than one set of data to pick from. I chose those which I think are the most representative of Chavez direct effect. Still, no matter what set, the trend remains.


24 comments:

  1. Anonymous5:53 PM

    I don't understand it, you can see in the graph that both trends had been moving in opposite directions since 2006 (albeit chavismo showing much more variability), and then suddenly the red line spikes up like never before last Sunday. We need to understand what happened. I think the rural vote is only part of the story. The weird thing is that the trend reversal shows up again and again all over the country...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. there is no rural vote in caucaguita.

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  2. The Chavistas were not only efficient in getting out the vote but also in avoiding defections by the fact that people don't really know if their vote is secret or not.Just the possibility that it might not be secret is enough to inhibit voters from straying because the consequences can be devastating not only because of job loss but also for being blacklisted from receiving benefits.If a Chavista bus arrives in your pueblo and asks you to come out and vote,first it is not very likely that you would refuse to do so and secondly once you have to put your finger on the FP reader you realize you don't have the technical knowledge to know if you would be identified for voting against Chavez or not.

    As long as this situation of intimidation and repression exists we will never know how many people are REALLY in favor of Chavez or not.

    What meaning do these numbers have under this condition? To what degree do these numbers reflect effectiveness of government intimidation ?

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  3. Am I truly expected to believe that the voter abstention rate dropped by 40 % ?????
    And am I truly expected to believe that of the ' new voters ' and the 'no longer abstaining voters', a total of around 6400, 500 only voted for the dems, and all the rest voted for Chavez ???
    My figures are rough, done in my head, but approximate what took place, or what we are told took place.
    Frankly, it's hard to believe.
    That doesn't mean it isn't true, but........

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    Replies
    1. in all countries that i know of when the president or prime minister seat is at stake abstention is much lower than for other elections. sometimes by a 1 to 2 factor.

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  4. Is it possible that Chavez's people were offering a serious cash payment for every person who presented a vote stained finger ?

    ReplyDelete
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    1. not only it is possible but it happened as many witness tell. the thing is that even if the cash transaction happened under your nose., even if you had a video where someone tried to bribe you, what court of justice do you bring that one to?

      the secret of the chavez dictatorship is that there is no independent judiciary. the head of the judiciary is on record a few days before the election in stating that the people had a choice to vote for either the "good government" (she did not bat an eye, it has been good for her for sure) and the irresponsible adventure of capriles. had capriles won we would have a major constitutional crisis because luisa estela morales lamuño would have had to be removed as unworthy of any judicial decision to be made with the state involved in a capriles government.

      Delete
  5. I agree diplomacy and alliances, can open a way over the cliff of Venezuela's stagnant doom bottom!
    .
    To better an established idiosyncrasy [i-deo-sin-crazy] is very hard to build upon for any real progress or bettering of what Venezuela is today!
    .
    Venezuela's justice system has gone down the road too far to be a mere name thing!
    .
    You revert this tendency!
    .
    Nobody really wants to go back to Venezuela of those that have managed to leave!
    .
    When will Venezuela have local airlines again authorized to USA, or to Merida airport?
    .
    As you said, the violence is astounding! a smaller rate to North America disappeared persons and children...!!!??? Eeeeeeek...!
    .
    ...???

    ...???
    THE ONLY REASON I LIKE CHAVEZ IS THAT I CAN HAVE DUAL CITIZENSHIP WHICH WAS NOT SO WITH ADECOS AND COPEI...!!!
    .
    .
    .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. your solution to venezuela's problem is to allow, say, american airlines to land in merida?

      Delete
  6. Dr. Faustus3:23 AM

    "Just the possibility that it might not be secret is enough to inhibit voters from straying because the consequences can be devastating not only because of job loss but also for being blacklisted from receiving benefits."


    Yes, I agree with this point.

    I think the Chavistas knew where their votes were going to come from long before the actual election took place. It was a well-planned and efficient operation, completely opposite of everything else being run in the country. First, identify recipients of past Chavista largess, mostly poor and illiterate. You got a Chinese refridgerator,? TV? etc, etc. Well, do want more? ..this to continue? Next, make sure there is transportation to polling booths on the date of the election. Finally, scare-the-hell-out-of-them with the very sophisticated finger print information, with the obvious implication of we-will-know-how-you-voted. OK? They did this by the hundreds of thousands, millions, in each and every district. They knew precisely what they were doing. They had the numbers,...'right from the start!' As Chavez repeated on numerous occasions, "it is impossible for them to win." He damn well knew it too.

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  7. Anonymous8:08 AM

    I just don't understand you guys, you keep beating your heads against the wall looking for an explanation. The only explanation is Chavez cooked the numbers! what is easier, running around the country intimidating and/or cohersing people to vote or simply fixing the numbers. C'mon record participation? All of a sudden the people of Caucaguita developed a sense of civic duty? The entire country? Here goes once again, as long as Chavez is alive, Venezuela will not have free presidential elections. You know there are cubans there, and those guys if you give them a couple of numbers, can prove to you that gravity pulls bodies towards the sky.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And your constructive solution is? to go home and wait for chavez to die? to start a civil war?

      Delete
  8. Anonymous11:31 AM

    Daniel, I apologize for the tone of my remarks. I respect your oppinions and look forward to visit your blog. I am not Venezuelan, and I wouldn't dare claim to know how any of you must feel. I understand the last thing you needed was a doomsday comment. I feel for Venezuela though, honestly. Having grown in South America when the 90s hit and we returned to democratic goverments, I hoped we had finally graduated from amateur, propagandist and populist leaders, and it burns me to see where we are and where we are headed. Chavez is leading the way but many are following and more are hoping to join. You guys are the front line there, continue to fight for democracy in Venezuela the way you do best by communicating the truth. Do not give up! History tells us all dictatorship end sooner or later. Will it be as result of cancer? or an overwhelming vote? I don't know. For now the next battle is at the regionals in December. God bless the good people of Venezuela.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. it would help very much if you were to sign your post with a made up name so we can follow the thread and not have to guess.

      Delete
  9. Anonymous11:46 AM

    I agree with the abstention issue and have a question that I’m not sure if it has been addressed:
    Does the PC stations used to give info on mesa, pagina de cuaderno & renglon, could have been used to track voter turnout and mobilize possible abstentionists?

    If you think of it, these stations besides creating bottlenecks were not needed for every voter as the same info could have been gathered from the printed lists outside voting centers or CNE’s website (using your cedula).

    If you are able to track voter turnout and, even better, exactly who has not voted you have a potential powerful tool to mobilize.

    Match this with your patrullas de 1 x 10, who can call you, remind you are a beneficiary of X or Y mission and dispatch transportation to your voting center, and you have a heck of an abstention killer.

    I don’t have any facts on this, and don’t believe in fraud theories, yet wondering is this could have been done…

    Any educated thought on this is appreciated.

    DJpidi

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is why there were there for, to inform by noon PSUV headquarters how many mision beneficiaries had gone to vote so between 1 and 3 PM they could target these people and push them to the voting stations.

      Delete
  10. Anonymous12:02 PM

    Thanks for putting this together, but these numbers and chart for the most part defy logic and common sense (obviously not your fault). While there are a dozen or so "mysteries" I can point my finger to, I didn't have an overall "ahá" moment. Do I have a solution? No - how could I, if I don't really understand the problem?
    Mike

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  11. Milonga3:06 PM

    I am with Bayly in this. Meaning, after he lost the referendum, Chavez made sure it never happened again and perfected in such a way the frauding of numbers, that today's fool everyone. I am deeply sorry for all of you.

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    1. Milonga

      You cannot say that. The auditits today force the government to cheat in other ways. That there is still some electronic cheating here and there is possible but not enough to change a national result. Claiming massive electronic voting fraud is a cope out. It is an excuse to avoid speaking about some harder truth.

      Delete
  12. Everybody is looking for a single explanation to that million + votes. Not one single explanation can explain that number because no single explanation can justify that advantage. I think we keep forgetting that the government hit us with EVERYTHING they could think of.
    Discarding the more obvious (that the president has his hardcore base that love and adore him) we must consider all the tactics employed by the government as a whole. The intimidation, the money giving, the missions, mobilization, excessive propaganda (legal, illegal, obvious and subliminal) etc.
    Please do not forget that from day one they said to whoever wanted to listen that Capriles will steal or cancel the missions. If i am not mistaken one of the points that gave us a victory in the past was when they said to the people that modifying the constitution would allow the government to steal the private property. A dirty campaign that i did no see a rebuttal from the MUD.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I have erased a comment thread by mistake. Please, if you notice it repost and hopefully those who replied will do so again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous3:25 AM

      I don't think is worth it anymore Daniel. I'm out of this futile discussion.
      I'm concentrating my energies on freeing the political prisoners.

      Maria

      Delete
  14. I have erased a comment thread by mistake. Please, if you notice it repost and hopefully those who replied will do so again.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Anonymous5:44 AM

    re: Not one single explanation can explain that number because no single explanation can justify that advantage.

    There seem to be a lot of comments about all the evils of the Chavez regime, but it would seem that a fair bit of soul searching about the weaknesses of the opposition is called for. For example, it looks to me like the opposition may be putting out candidates that resemble the stereotype that Chavez promotes.

    ReplyDelete

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