Sunday, December 16, 2012

Electoral note 3: the results are truly awful

The results are in.  I did spend actually a rather relaxing day, no TV, little computer.  But I semi tuned in this evening and the wait with the CNE on TV, the general mess, the armed civilians as if it were for war, remind me that we are becoming ever more of  the 4th world. That sort of did me in a little bit before any result was published.  Oh well....

Around 7 PM from the chavista headquarters here in San Felipe we could hear quite a few fireworks so I knew that as expected Yaracuy was a loss for the opposition.  No surprise whatsoever.  The surprise will come if Biagio Pilieri makes it to 45%.

I did not watch CNE's head Tibisay on TV again: I cannot stomach her anymore so I waited for the thing to pop up on the net to write this. I even kept Twitter in cool mode ...  So there we go: an unmitigated disaster for the opposition. Abstention was worse for our side than for chavismo as I expected since the electoral machinery of chavismo would give it an edge in this scenario.  The little bit of extra voting in late afternoon was too little  too late.

My "opposition defeat" 3+1 scenario was actually not good enough: we lost even Tachira, due to opposition divisions even though we won it against Chavez.  Mendez in Tachira has some serious accounting to do. We also lost Monagas were we went divided and the MUD would have to explain why the primaries of Monagas were iron clad but why in Miranda Capriles was allowed to push away Ocariz to get a very, very meager 4% margin. At least, since we must find silver linings wherever we can, for better or for worse the leaders of the opposition are now Henri Falcon and Henrique Capriles. Good thing it seems they get along fine.

I was very pessimistic in my forecast but this is even worse...  What happened?

The "pity" effect for Chavez worked in full. There is no other way to account for defeats in Aragua or the close score in Miranda.

The idea that a governor in the Chavez camp was overall better for the people, contrary to any evidence, has made inroads. Otherwise how to account for the loss in Zulia?

The opposition did not vote because of idiotic angst. That played badly in Nueva Esparta, Anzoategui, Carabobo and Miranda mainly.

For all of its talk of primaries and going against Chavez eternal reelection amendment in 2009 the opposition had two dynasties in Carabobo and Nueva Esparta that overstayed their welcome.

Paradoxically divisions inside chavismo played in its favor at least in one state: Merida.

The insecurity fears played in favor of Chavez running military personnel for states. Even if all the evidence says that a military governor is no better for security this certainly helped in Zulia (unbelievably!), in Tachira and in Nueva Esparta.

And more reasons that can come up as I start perusing the results.

But right now there is no need to elaborate: we are a wretched country and what I wrote on October 7  evening is even more valid today. In the face of an upcoming crisis, rampant inflation, crime and more crime and the electoral fraud of running a sick man in October, the Venezuelan people either stayed home or went to vote for whomever Chavez pointed at. We are an idiotic country and we are going to get what we deserve.

This is not anymore about Romney 47% or my own 43% estimate of those who hate me. We need to add a few points of the idiots in the opposition that thought by not voting today they would "do something". They did shit.  In short, there are more than 50% of Venezuelans that I am embarrassed to share an passport with and I am afraid this number is going to grow further.  They are the people that find it fine to live in shit as long as Chavez gives them an occasional handout and people that prefer to wave their arms rather than perform the basic elemental act of voting.

Woe is us.

3 comments:

  1. Daniel, the results show why Ibsen Martinez piece that you linked in a previous post was so wrong. Capriles had to run, he had to show that we could win Miranda again. If he had abstained running in Miranda and acted like a cheerleader, we would probably had lost Miranda and he would be sent to oblivion. Miranda was a challenge and he was up to the challenge.

    I think that the opposition candidate that better understands Venezuelan politics is Capriles.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bruni

      I have always said that Capriles was right in running again for Miranda. Please, rephrase your comment according. :)

      Delete
  2. Anonymous4:18 AM

    Oh Daniel, cannot agree more with your last statement

    "there are more than 50% of Venezuelans that I am embarrassed to share an passport with and I am afraid this number is going to grow further. They are the people that find it fine to live in shit as long as Chavez gives them an occasional handout and people that prefer to wave their arms rather than perform the basic elemental act of voting".

    It hurts a lot but it's essentially the true

    ReplyDelete

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