Thursday, March 20, 2014

What do we do next? From XXI century style dictatorship to traditional Gorilla one

The regime has crossed the Rubicon.


True, until today there was a certain pretense. For example in all their haste they still decided that disbarring Maria Corina Machado from her Representative status had to take, oh, say, a week. She actually took off today for Washington where she will appear at the OAS on Friday, in theory. We will see what happens when she comes back and is accused of traitor to the fatherland for speaking up against the regime.

We all knew that this was a dictatorship. At least regular readers of this blog know that my official date was the approval of the enabling law of late 2010. Maduro is merely the second dictator of the regime, which conveniently reached office through a multi step fraud system.

Sure, there were the beating up of Machado and Borges at the Nazional Assembly. True, insults poured. True, Maduro looted whatever he wanted whenever convenient. But there was still a je ne sais quoi. A few newspapers could still write as they pleased, though they could not print anymore due to end of paper imports. And still all of the opposition leadership was still able to howl.  No more. Tonight two mayors were summarily sent to jail without any legal proceeding. Period. The regime has reverted from a XXI century style dictatorship to our traditional gorilla past, presenting my apologies for the noble beasts who have the misfortune to be used to describe abusive generals.

What makes this an absolute Rubicon is that in preceding days we had clear signs of what was coming. Tal Cual was sued in an illegitimate way that it will put its owners totally out of business. Torture cases revealed were getting worse. Weird moves were noted in the courts and the ministers declarations. Clearly the arrest of Lopez had not stopped anything and had in fact hastened the social decomposition of the country. Also, there is the deafening silence of chavismo support base that feels that this fight is not of their concern, that if Maduro could supply the goods nothing of the sort would be happening. And of course food scarcity growing worst by the day.

The order came from Havana: jail 'em all!

What do we do next? I am afraid we have no choice: guarimbas and resistance as long as we can. The other option is to cave in and accept the dictatorship of Cuba over all of us which will be obliged to nationalize everything to hold on, even our private lives.  This is not about polarization bullshit anymore, it is about survival. The regime never had any intention of negotiating anything. Of course, yours truly and his readers knew that all along.

I have the feeling that the regime knows and accepts it has lost popular support forever and thus this final push over the line. Truly, the regime has no option either.



35 comments:

  1. Island Canuck6:38 AM

    I've mentioned this in the past but we are very close to the Grenada situation of the 1980s.
    Politicians & disenters jailed without trial.
    Marches in the street.
    Cuban domination.

    The straw that broke the camel's back was the shooting of an opposistion politician.

    I can't help but think that some "accident" is going to happen to one of the mayors, Lopez, Machado, etc.
    Then the bomb will go off.
    Unlike Grenada I'm not waiting for the US marines to come storming in.
    This is something we'll need to do on our own.

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    Replies
    1. Concur... But, will the mass of Venezuelans shake off their complacency?

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    2. For all the massive displays of revolutionary fervor there is always a limited amount of people engaged. The bulk of the nationals are rather reactive than active. Whether it is to defend chavismo or to overthrow it, more than half Venezuelans will remain hidden at home, watching it on TV.

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    3. so sad...and that is the impression I get in my world....but you confirmed it.

      firepigette

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  2. Old 03117:14 AM

    Agreed on the US not helping. Will it take the masses of Venezuelans to wake up or will it take the middle ranks of the military to say enough and overthrow the bought and paid for generals?

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  3. Anonymous7:38 AM

    The us is as complicit as are our neighbours. Castro owes much of his recognition to failed American regional policy over the years. Indeed willingness to accept a neighbour who once wanted to launch a nuclear attack against them suggests we are totally isolated.

    I agree with Island, no doubt there. But is it credible that middle ranking officers could take action ? If not we are f.....

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  4. It seemed clear that once the charisma and romanticism of the "Socialismo del siglo XX"! faded away it would become the beast it really is; the final stage was always going to be a traditional dictatorship, we have now entered that stage; now the question is how long it will last, as long as Gomez, as long as Perez Jimenez or just a couple of days

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  5. Obama is too busy trying to ruin the US to be bothered with disciplining another Marxist regime. Marxists all stick together like glue. The regime will probably start threatening war with Colombia next.

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    Replies
    1. Ronaldo10:06 AM

      Columbia has a disciplined professional experienced military. That is a lot different than the corrupt Venezuela military who only know how to kill and wound unarmed civilians. Chavez threatened to bring two divisions to the border with Columbia a few years back. Nothing happened in 3 days because traffic jams in Caracas stopped them.

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    2. The cheap shot at Obama is totally uncalled for and wholly inappropriate. When will you Tea Party types ever give up the bald-faced lie that Obama is some kind Marxist? Shame on you.

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    3. Most unlikely. Guyana is more likely. Nothing against the Guyanans but the Columbians are probably better than their eastern neighbors at shooting back.

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    4. Thank you Rich.

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    5. Boludo Tejano3:09 PM

      When will you Tea Party types ever give up the bald-faced lie that Obama is some kind Marxist? Shame on you.

      Unfortunately for your point of view, some of Obama's own words lend credence to the idea that Obama could be "some kind of Marxist." From Dreams From My Father:

      To avoid being mistaken for a sellout, I chose my friends carefully. The more politically active black students. The foreign students. The Chicanos. The Marxist professors and structural feminists and punk-rock performance poets. [p 57]......

      Political discussions, the kind that at Occidental had once seemed so intense and purposeful, came to take on the flavor of the socialist conferences I sometimes attended at Cooper Union .
      [p 69]
      [There was no indication of attending libertarian conferences, I might point out.]

      Etc. Former White House staffers: Van Jones, Anita Dunn's "favorite philosopher. Not to mention Obama's affiliation in Chicago with a couple who, among other things, were among the co-authors of Prairie Fire, a book that advocated dictatorship of the proletariat for the United States.

      In general, I avoid talking US politics on Venezuelan politics blogs, but in this case I wanted to point out that even if one one disagrees with Obama being "some kind of Marxist," it is not completely absurd to consider it possible, given such statements from Obama himself.

      If there were no such statements from Obama, I would agree with you that it would be a " bald-faced lie that Obama is some kind of Marxist." Unfortunately for your case, as there are some such statements from Obama, the proposition can be termed at least somewhat debatable. I for one, am not interested in further debating it.

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  6. Anonymous8:57 AM

    USA is not going to help. The indication of that behaviour is the editorial in the New York Times. In the states we are well aware that the Times is simply a mouthpiece for the liberal left and the regime. Its an attempt to tell the Americans there is nothing to be done and we won't.

    Sad.

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  7. Ronaldo9:59 AM

    "The order came from Havana: jail 'em all!"
    Exactamente

    It is time to focus on attacking the Cuban leadership. They are killing and jailing Venezuelans.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anonymous10:06 AM

    Hi Daniel, it looks like youre getting on Friday 80t of fresh and best Riot Gear directly from Germany...

    http://www.canalntn24.com/node/125315/

    Hans

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    Replies
    1. cargo not confirmed. didn't you watch the video?

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  9. Anonymous10:15 AM

    The U.S. does not need to help...Only to stop buying the Venezuelan crude temporarily, which is simply their option in a time when domestic production has increased enough to nullify the limited and poor quality production from Venezuela. You can call it a sanction if you want. Maybe even put a little pressure on Citco. Saudi can match any deficiency with the flip of a switch, albiet at a higher price than the lower priced and quality pdvsa production. See how long maduro can buy support on only freshly printed Bs. Oh yeah, forget about passing any tankers through the Panama canal. See how long China supports when their repayments in the form of crude for past bailout loans stops.

    concerned

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  10. Charly10:30 AM

    The regime will have crossed the Rubicon the day the OAS and UNASUR decide it has crossed the Rubicon but don't hold your breath when you deal with coward bitches (cabronas) like the presidents of Brazil and Chile.

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    Replies
    1. crossing the Rubicon means nothing about action. Plenty or Romans left for their villas to wait it out between Cesar and Pompey.

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  11. Can u feel it?...it's speeding up...There is no door they don't hold the keys to.....
    American help?..crazy...
    Curiously. ..all the weapons in this country. ..and only Chavista trash use them.......maybe things will improve. .:)

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  12. Anonymous11:37 AM

    i believe the oppo politicians need to be clear w the lower class and invite them to participate more actively in the protests, while telling them that they have contributed electorally in erecting the monstrous regime. Seems to me that the MUD still believe the myth that the poor are meant only to be addressed and seduced in electoral and economic terms instead of incorporating them in a truly anti dictatorship rhetoric. The lower class needs to understand that everyone must protest together and assume responsibilities in the struggle to push for regime change and the following reconstruction effort.
    rafael silva

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    Replies
    1. Anonymous12:06 PM

      Not really possible when Collectivos are there to threaten them.

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    2. Rafa;

      Too complicated to explain to those, remember the masses are kept with a low level of information, and with that they develop a lower level of discern. (you kill the choices and you reduce the ability to discern). I remember back when Chavez proposed the “Eleccion Indefinida” the parties tried very clever ways to try and explain why that was a bad Idea, when the direct message would have worked better in my opinion, like: “ If you approve the “Indefinite Election” wait until Adecos and Copeyanos return, then you will never see power again. I think that treat should have worked better, especially for those people.
      At this point parties don’t have a real voice at those levels, I don’t think you will be able to count on the majority of them, they will turn against the regime once they sense they must get their goodies from someone else, at that point they will pick a different party, and put their hands forward for a handout. It is human nature, they won’t give their lives for Maduro, but they won’t fight against them either.
      In My opinion the same message should work this time around, if you are a GN, and have a Facebook page spread it, if a picture of them can be taken, capture it, create a web page, publish it, make them known, if you can capture a Cuban within GN, make them talk, film them.. Make it public. Only then, a GN will think twice before doing something stupid. (this includes retaining some of them if necessary), to make them talk to the rest… (Yes it is Ugly, but no one said was was pretty, and let’s face it Venezuela is at WAR).

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  13. There is always a way, no matter how desperate situations become.

    1) The US cannot send troops! That would unleash ferocious hatred throughout Latin America. But there will be tough sanctions. And hopefully, the EU Community will follow suit.

    2) International protests will have to be the norm after Maduro shuts them down in Venezuela. Since the Peruvian opposition is determined to prevent President Humala from instituting Chavismo, in their country, Peru can become a lightning rod in SA against it.

    Then there is Brazil. We know that words wouldn't budge Brazilian politicians into protecting human rights. Protesting against their World Cup will. Venezuelans can join with their neighbors and make Brazil pay for its complicity, and possibly force it to rethink human rights abuses occurring in Venezuela.

    But no matter what Maduro does, he cannot stop brave Venezuelan patriots from disseminating the truth in their country.

    And the world just cannot allow this to go on. When self interests and acting righteous collide, action usually follows.

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    1. Sanctions?..brave Venezuelan patriots?.....bla bla bla....look, they use guns..man power..money...coruption... plus the courts..information. ..they have it all....they are laughing on the island...it's all to plan..because "they had a plan"

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    2. Sanctions?..brave Venezuelan patriots?.....bla bla bla....look, they use guns..man power..money...coruption... plus the courts..information. ..they have it all....they are laughing on the island...it's all to plan..because "they had a plan"

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    3. Let's see Michael. Chile (left, then far far right, now democracy). Peru (Velasques far left, then right, now democracy), Brazil turned the other way. Paraguay turned the other way. Ect. Sometimes left, sometimes right. But those dictatorships(with all the guns) did not last. Cuba, that's a different story. Being an island, its people cannot leave and subjugation is easier for that dictatorship. And you are forgetting that the media of today can ferret out all, sooner or later.

      North Korea has China to protect it, Cuba has its location as protection. What does Venezuela have (it has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia, but it is sooo expensive to unearth) for protection when the the international community tightens up its press with tough sanctions. And when Chavista infighting fully breaks out, which is destined, these guns you talk about will probably be used against themselves.



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    4. I certainly hope that Venezuela is not so unlucky as to become a democracy, by which I mean a country in which the majority can decide anything and everything. The tyranny of the majority is just as much to be feared as the dictatorship that exists now.
      One would hope that there would be a foundation for Venezuela like the Declaration of Independence in the United States. Granted, we haven't always (and less and less today) lived up to those principles, but they are good place to start. One can hardly do better than to live in a country where the rights of life, liberty, property and the pursuit of happiness form the foundation of whatever government exists. Without the guarantee that there are some things that even a majority, no matter the size, cannot vote away, the inevitable end is tyranny.

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  14. Big Mistake to think that the Guarimbas "by it self" will do the job. Big mistake to think that just following Gene Sharp's rules will be enough. We must take in to account that must of the Arab Spring, as well as Ukraine etc, had some elements from his rules, but they did not limit to those only. I read that in Ukraine, they also burned every Government building they could get a hold of, they took Guard's arms and shields as well... and guarinbas were on major highways, and in front of Palacio... Do you see the difference?? Gene's rules may have started "Sparked" the movement but there must be a strong finish to it.

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  15. I also think there is a mistake to confront the Guardia Natzional, especially with the access to fast communication and social network in Venezuela. Gene’s rules specifically instruct you not to confront. A guarimba is set up in a road, and that is all, out to the next one, on a different place. A peaceful march in one plaza, and as soon as the GN shows up, you change the place immediately. You have multiple of these places pre determined. I saw the GN only have 35000 of so effectives, this means spread them out as much as possible, that is the key, and not to confront them.

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  16. Sanctions..????, I think waiting to see if sanctions will do the trick, is also a mistake, they wont. They did not work in Cuba, Iraq, Iran, North Korea… etc etc etc…! Unfortunately “hay que sincerarse” this must be resolved internally, however it can be resolved,. Without discounting any avenue, “ANY”..! Remember Honduras, the big hoopla lasted for a few day, right not tell me who remember Zelaya.?? Moraleja.. take them out how ever possible and deal with the consequences later…. A few burned buildings, tanquetas, and government cars, even a few PDVSA property.. etc… is something that can be repaired, the life of the 30 people dead can’t be restored.

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  17. Anonymous7:39 PM

    Maduro locking up mayors left right and center. You can't blame him. The world will do nothing and neither will the majority of Venezuelans.

    Sadly as this goes on its becoming clear that those who want this government gone are a minority. What a hole Venezuela has become.

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  18. Anonymous8:12 AM

    The Cuban regime is broadly accepted by just about every nation in the Americas as a legitimate way of goverment: stable, safe, even folkloric. Even the US (embargo notwithstanding) sells a lot of stuff to Cuba. Why should anyone think differently about Venezuela? Cuba has seen some unrest at various times in the past and plenty of repression, but all that is conveniently forgotten once the unrest is controlled by the authorities. As soon as the current wave of protest in Venezuela is finally put down, all brotherly nations of the continent will continue to praise the genious of the Great Chavez. Bastards!

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  19. Anonymous7:57 PM

    It is a shame the indifference or even the support to the regime from most of Latin America countries, although I really think no Latin America country has relevant influence on Venezuela except Cuba.

    The single country that could make something relevant is US and it is equally a shame they make nothing (except a few and timid rhetoric). No - I am not saying about US marines in Venezuelan soil - I am sure the party would finish if the money stops to flow into the country, so if US is really interested to help the Venezuelan people they could embargo totally the oil importation for a couple of months...

    It is very sad as it looks Venezuelans are alone with their yoke...

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