Sunday, June 15, 2014

Maduro 3 Santos 0?

So Santos just won his reelection. I am not too optimistic for a good second term. So many things can go wrong when you have such a false start for a very complicated process with a neighbor that wants nothing better but you to fail.  The more so when the neighbors seems to be scoring several unexpected goals, a little bit like the hefty surprise victory of Colombia over Greece yesterday by 3-0.

Indeed, it has been a good week for Maduro. Besides the opposition unable to rally convincingly against regime's abuse (Maria Corina Machado seems to be the next victim to be offered by the MUD tomorrow), ISIS in Iraq is sending the price of oil up. Oh, not enough for the needs of Maduro but certainly enough to give him enough oxygen to prolong our agony for a few more months. Not to mention that a putative world recession would benefit Maduro as his imports would be cheaper, now that recession or not oil prices are to remain above 80.

Now, Santos reelection is a third plus for Maduro. I knew yesterday that Santos victory was a given when Colombian TV showed his cheers when the Colombian team scored. Right then and there, Santos got at least +2 points and in a close election that was all that he needed.

It is not that I am against a negotiation between the FARC and the Colombian government, but that negotiation so far seems to be held with so many trumped card that one cannot fail to understand the severe questioning made on that process. I am not strident like Uribe  but I think that Santos has been had. And he knows it and tries to make the best of it, to further his personal ambition more than anyhting lese I think.

Why has Santos failed? First, an obvious detail: Santos was elected 4 years ago with the vote of a strong right, and now, that he has lost a majority within the right, he is reelected with the votes of the left. This makes him a weak president. Santos will be blackmailed by both left and right to rule, he has no majority of his own. Trying to gain a majority of his own with the left will be unnatural for the patrician he is, and the left will eat him at the first opportunity. Trying to regain a majority on the right will come at the cost of giving up his peace plan with the FARC. He is lame duck as of tonight.

I heard Santos tonight, and his victory speech was not a celebration, it was more of a campaign speech, a justification speech, a search for allies speech. Sure enough within minutes Uribe's speech announced that he was the leader of the opposition, that there is no honeymoon for Santos, that the crisis is only starting. Tough lame-duckness, at that.

I cannot understand how come Santos, the FARC bomber during Uribe's tenure, has decided to put his political future in the hands of mafiosi, drug traffickers, professional murderers and what not. And I am including in that group not only the FARC (and now the ELN that seeing how well the FARC is doing want in) but Cuba and Chavez. When Santos reached office he had in his hands the means to damage Chavez badly. Instead he forgave him in exchange for his help to tame the FARC. Chavez acquiesced  because in Havana they were looking for a way to repeat in Colombia what they achieved in Venezuela: transform a minority left into a majority government in the space of 2-3 years though exceptional historical circumstances.

I do not think that the Castros can repeat in Colombia what they did in Venezuela. To begin with there is in Colombia a strong democratic right that is not going to lay at the feet of a new Chavez the way it happened in Venezuela in 1999. And second, there is no Chavez like figure. But that final objective can wait.

What the Castros are getting today with a weakened Santos that owes his seat now to minority leftists in Bogota, is neutrality on Venezuela troubles. We can be almost certain that the Santos second term will not see visits of opposition leaders at Casa de Nariño. Santos second term will never confront UNASUR, and even less about Venezuela. In short, prolonging Havana negotiations between Santos and FARC for a year or two is enough for Colombia to leave alone Maduro until he can exterminate Venezuelan opposition, including massive electoral fraud next year. Then, with chavismo unmovable once and for all, it will always be time to turn the gaze toward taking over Colombia, helped by a Correa in Ecuador who know has taken the open dictatorship road with his own plans for eternal reelection. Well, that is the idea anyway.

Thanks for nothing, Santos.

6 comments:

  1. Charly4:49 AM

    Latin America is slowly but surely competing with Africa for the bottom of the barrel. Just look at Roussef. She would love to prosecute the military who made her youth miserable. But what moral superiority does she have over them when her bosom serves as an arm rest for the old drooling Fidel who has certainly killed far more than the Brazilian military. Latino politics these days? Garbage, basura, lixo.And those dams Yanks who do not pay attention. What a pisser for the would be neo-tyrans.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The USA elite doesn't have to pay attention to Latin America because the Cuban mini empire will be ruled by 21st Century National Socialists. And this means business for US multinationals.

    Raul Castro knows communism is a failure. He's moving to the center and eventually the Cuban dictatorship will move even further to the right. Raul keeps a red veneer on his regime because that parasitical elite ruling Cuba includes hard line communists, and he has to keep the appearances for Fidel (at least until that dinosaur dies). This veneer will be used to convince the red fifth columns to cooperate with the Cuban take over. But in the end the Cubans will make sure any reds who don't follow Raul's fascist new order will fall.

    Why do you think the SEBIN murdered Juancho Montoya in Caracas. On February 12th of this year? Montoya wasn't about to back Maduro's emerging corrupt Neo fascism. And this is also why the cadres at aporrea are starting to squirm. They know they had better bow to the inevitable, prostitute their beliefs or they'll be dead.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Milonga12:00 PM

    While everyone is distracted by football (50 percent of Colombians did not bother to go and vote, and so is inertia in most countries anywhere you search for) there are some weird guys in Bolivia, Maduro included and thus leggitimated by those weirdos, that are meeting to created a "New World Order" in order to live happily. I don't know about you, but I am terribly worried for whatever these guys are committed to doing in our countries. It seems like an increased Foro de San Pablo, entity which has done enough wrong. I think democrats everywhere should take a serious look to #G77+China Summit in Santa Cruz de la Sierra. Doing these meetings and aiming at all countries under the same flag during World Cup distraction is no coincidence! Am I being paranoic?

    ReplyDelete
  4. There are other blogs,forums and websites for conspiracy cr--theories.

    ReplyDelete
  5. As time goes by, the disguised neo-dictadura bolibanana continues to simmer in.. as I've reiterated for months now, the only way out is further economic deterioration.

    So the pueblo gets really pissed off and overthrows the regime in the streets, the old fashioned way.

    No rigged elections or Mudded Mud will do the trick. No Caprilito BS. Or MCM heroics.

    Lack of Harina Pan, apagones, se fue el agua, no hay, no hay, inflation, crime, worse and worse living conditions, until it boils over. Unfortunately for those still living there.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Sledge,

    Unfortunately I agree with you because many who are left in the country do not seem to mind the crime that much( " it will never happen to me" syndrome), nor do they care that much for freedoms or they would have revolted eons ago.

    The basic dependent/passive attitude, which is mistakenly and proudly identified as peace loving has to go.

    Those who allow evil to happen without anger and outrage, are part of the package, passivity and all.

    I often ask my friends why certain foreigners and others who have possibilities to leave remain in Venezuela when they could easily leave.The answer is usually some version of:
    " I guess they are taking advantage,( meaning money)"

    We just sent a smart phone to our daughter there, where the monthly fees THEY feel are affordable.....I don't have one here in the US because I cannot afford the
    monthly fees.

    Go figure the values out here. I have given up trying.

    Firepigette

    it will be the values that win or lose this war.

    ReplyDelete

Comments policy:

1) Comments are moderated after the third day of publication. It may take up to a day or two for your note to appear then.

2) Your post will appear if you follow the following rules. I will be ruthless in erasing any comment that do not follow these rules, as well as those who replied to that off rule comment.

3)COMMENT RULES:
Do not be repetitive.
Do not bring grudges and fights from other blogs here (this is the strictest rule).
This is an anti Chavez blog, with more than 95% anti Chavez readers that have made up their minds long ago. Thus trying to prove us wrong is considered a troll. Still, you are welcome as a chavista to post,> in particular if you want to explain us coherently as to why chavismo does this or that. We are still waiting for that to happen once.
Insults and put downs are frowned upon and I will be sole judge on whether to publish them.

Followers