Saturday, August 29, 2015

Note to Obama and Santos: appeasing thugs NEVER works

The Venezuela-Colombian border crisis should have been a fantastic opportunity to put the Venezuelan narco-regime on notice. Instead it serves as show case on how the appeasement policies of Obama and Santos are sinking fast.

The crisis was an absolutely artificial creation of the Venezuelan regime, increasingly taxed by its faults. As polls plummet for the regime when crucial elections are scheduled for December 6, this one has done all what it can to sabotage them. One offensive was to go straight ahead and jail major opposition figures, bar from running other, gerrymander further the districts, increase censorship and try to bankrupt the scant remaining free press. Elections? Sure! Just try to campaign! However it was an uphill battle to regain the favor of its electors, the only real way to win elections. Since the economy has tanked there is only one option left to rekindle the love of the chavista voter: chauvinistic nationalism, redundancy intended.

First there was a renewed anti US anti Obama drive. This one floundered when Havana and Washington started real talks and petered out at the recent OAS general assembly when Maduro got to see Obama without cameras for a brief moment, long enough for Obama to talk him down.

It seems thus that the "millions" of anti Obama signatures "freely collected" and validated without scruples by the "electoral authorities" were not enough to raise polls for a durable hold. So Maduro sought a conflict with Guyana over maritime and territorial claims. The only result of that came with a further loss of the Venezuelan case; and that the supposedly meek supporters of Venezuela in CARICOM went Guyana way without batting an eyelash. Isolation is thy name, Maduro.

Having been defeated in the imaginary northern border with the US of A and the Eastern border of Guyana there were only two borders left. The one in the South with Brazil is far and dicey although it seems the regime will try something. But the Western border with Colombia was ripe with existing excuses, or fertile grounds to plant new ones.

There are all sorts of theories on how the pretext came about. Some say that it all started from a rivalry between two narco-gangs in Venezuela, the one of the "Soles" and the one of "Guajira", both pointed out as being at least partially controlled by different wings of the army. Others say that it was a mere rivalry between gangs controlling the heavy contraband system towards Colombia, courtesy of the artificially deflated prices of Venezuelan goods. Others advance that it was a way to get rid of Tachira governor rumored to be in talks with "transition" proposals. Some even go as far as saying the whole show is just to put pressure on Santos who may extradite to the US compromising witnesses of the narco-regime in Caracas. None of these pretexts exclude the others, by the way.

Clearly, something as crazed as that, with damning images of human rights abuses as Colombians in Venezuela are rudely expelled when not leaving in a hurry motu proprio, should have been a bonus, a golden opportunity for Colombian and US diplomacy to read a writ to Venezuela. Unfortunately the errors of Santos and Obama policies toward Venezuela's regime are now paid, most likely under Cuban direction. Which have been these mistakes?

Obama's mistakes come from opening to Cuba without proper reciprocity.  Thinking that making the first step toward a totalitarian regime will bring concessions is a mistake that the West should have learned once and for all in 1938 while drinking beer in Munich. Certainly I approved of Obama's initiatives since everything else tried before by the US has failed; more by lack of will than actual vices or virtues of any legislation. But one thing is to approve the initial gesture, another thing is to approve the mechanism chosen. The result is that as soon as Cuba realized that the big bucks were not coming fast the Castro's regime started increasing repression and moving its pieces elsewhere. Extortion is the natural state for these people and that Obama and Kerry thought it would be different this time around is simply bedeviling.

The second mistake was sending Shannon to discuss with Maduro and Cabello without anything in exchange. Or so it seems so far. True, it is supposed that the release of half a dozen of political prisoners would be a result of that, along the call for elections which was suspiciously delayed. But the released prisoners are under house arrest and suffer all sorts of impediments while elections can be cancelled even on election day. The real result of these "negotiations" is that thug in chief, Diosdado Cabello, pointed out by many as a drug capo, feels vindicated and now indispensable. So as any good thug would do he has increased his attacks on people who dare criticize him, has decided to bankrupt once and for all the remaining free newspapers, and more. So much for Shannon effectiveness.

Colombia's president, Santos, mistakes started 5 years ago when he "befriended Chavez".  It has been downhill since. Chavez under a reprieve as Uribe's parting shot was exposing all FARC training camp inside Venezuela, played nice and stroked Santos ego in that he could indeed bring the FARC to serious negotiations after having been the Uribe's defense minister in charge of blowing them out. Which he nearly did, by the way and may have been able to complete had he wanted to. Under the excuse that Venezuela's role was crucial to the eventual success of Havana's Santos-FARC talks, the Santos administration made all sorts of concessions to the Venezuelan regime, most despicably by handing over to Caracas drug kingpins and political exiles.

Sure enough the FARC is playing Santos through and though. Its first success was to force Santos into a difficult reelection. This conservative, liberal right president has had to ally himself to the fading left of Colombia to get reelected and thus he has unnecessarily promoted its recovery. After reelection the FARC has become even more belligerent, and now it is trying to use the border crisis offering itself as the best guarantor against contraband and the alleged paramilitary infiltration inside Venezuela, as if Venezuela was not the main promoter of paramilitary groups like the colectivos, pranes .....

How can Santos and his ever more idiotic looking foreign minister Holguin whose appeasing smiles and seduction to Maduro are now blowing up to her face have lost the political coup offered to them on a silver tray?

First, the delayed response. Uribe was promptly at the border with Venezuela while Holguin sought a "meeting" with the Venezuelan foreign minister, the insufferable hack sister of Caracas mayor and inventor of all electoral frauds. While Holguin was giving Rodriguez a propaganda platform to accuse Colombia in its own country, the images of Colombians wading the river Tachira with their scarce belongings made front pages.

Santos waited for a week to go to the border and this late in the game he had to go populist and offer all sorts of goodies to calm down the natives. But it was too late, Colombian public opinion was united, and not around Santos. Even ex president Gaviria questioned the participation of Colombia to fakes like UNASUR who clearly do not wish to offend whatsoever the susceptibility of Maduro and co.  To add insult to injury Maduro kept giving fake handouts in Venezuela, declared falsely that scarcity was over thanks to his policies in Tachira, threatened to push the border blockade all along the Venezuelan border and flew to Vietnam. Cabello on his own decided to stir a little bit of trouble with the Brazil border attacking garimpeiros as if did not know they  had been creating ecological devastation since Chavez came to office!

I think that we are assisting to the undoing of Obama and Santos foreign schemes. I, for one, dearly hope that this is all part of a master plan to muzzle once and for all the rogue regimes of Havana and Caracas. But I am not holding my breath whatsoever.

Luckily for Santos and Obama, they do not have to worry about reelection anymore. Others will sort out the debris.



31 comments:

  1. the title should be appeasement not pacification, IMHO.

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    Replies
    1. You are quite right.

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  2. Boludo Tejano5:03 PM

    Note to Obama and Santos: pacifying thugs NEVER works

    A bit of buyer's remorse regarding President Obama, Daniel? Had you asked me 7 years ago if Obama would pacify foreign thugs, I would have replied: Unfortunately, that is what he will do.

    You are spot-on when you stated that it was a mistake on Obama's part to not require some sort of reciprocity from Cuba. But But Obama was simply being Obama- no surprise here.

    Regarding your not liking what Obama has done/not done regarding the border closing, I am reminded of the old Toyota ad: You asked for him, you got him.

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    Replies
    1. Must we revisit this again and again?

      As with any president you win some and you lose some. Considering the options I still would have voted for him. Then again Hillary was my "man".

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    2. I am not a big Obama fan but what would Bush Jr have done in the same situation? I am struggling to see what your expecting Obama to do. If I was him I would play nice if it gets this gov't out and helps the people of Venezuela. Hammer these clowns after they are out of power.

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    3. Obama encourages Maduro by being extremely soft and friendly with the Castro family dictatorship. Opening diplomatic relations is ok, but he didn't have to sit there and smile at Raul Castro, or send Kerry to Havana to the embassy opening ceremony. It seems Havana's relationship with Maduro is a mystery for the Obama adimunstration?

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  3. Anonymous6:43 PM

    http://devilexcrement.com/2015/08/28/the-devil-meets-forces-beyond-his-control/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Piy_IBvl9Ro

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  4. Anonymous2:03 AM

    Daniel, did all this crap come from? Can you tell from which country these posts originate?

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    Replies
    1. Taken care of. I do not even care the country of origin. Just a spam! Spam!spam!

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  5. Daniel, Maduro is copying an old technique, when things go bad seek somebody to blame. In this case he's picking on a portion of the Colombian minority to see if he can get a hard reaction from Colombia.

    The smuggling serves as an excuse to blame the food shortages on a Colombian mafia, etc. The issue is so confusing to outsiders (and probably to a portion of the Venezuelan population) that it helps prop up the regime. Therefore a hard reaction by Santos doesn't help. The only thing I would do is declare the FARC talks can no longer take place in Cuba, should be moved to a neutral country because Venezuela, and by extension Cuba, can not be considered sensible partners for peace.

    Other than that, which addresses an internal Colombian matter, he should just ask the UN to send a team to interview the refugees, and advise Colombia on how to help them out. I hear it's 30 thousand, that's manageable by Colombia alone.

    It's important that all parties refrain from allowing Maduro to use excuses for his failures, and those around him should understand things are going to get worse for them. Unfortunately, the only way to get the mafias backing Maduro that they will lose is to stop working and helping the government. This is a key point, the government supports itself on the sweat and labor of hard working people exploited by communist red parasites. All of the working class, from professionals to oil field workers to the street vendor must understand they share a common future: poverty, hunger, poor medical care, and slavery. If they are smart enough to understand they have to unite, they will have to stop working. This has to include at least 60 to 70 % of those doing useful work. If that can be accomplished, the boligarchs and the Chavista mafias will change. But Venezuela will remain wounded, changed. What you knew has been genocided. That's what they have done to Cuba. And what they will do to any other country they take over.

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  6. "Colombia's president, Santos, mistakes started 5 years ago when he "befriended Chavez".

    Not a "mistake". Santos was bought out by Chavismo and the Farc. Just like Chavismo bought out half of Latin America, including Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua and even some of Chile, or so it seems, lately.

    As for Obama, Venezuela is way down low in its list of priorities now. There are dozens of far more important countries for the bif USA, especially now with the downward oil spiral and its near independence with Fracking.

    We forget that most countries simply don't give a flying fock about little Venezuela's 300 million monkey disaster, and are just waiting for it to implode and sort itself out.

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    1. 30 million.

      For the USA what should be important is Brazil. As Brazil goes, the rest of South America will follow. With DilmaBitch on fire and Luladron with Petrobras on deep shit, Brazil seems to be shifting gears in the right direction, who cares about Vzla.. eventually it will go back to what it was, a MUDmess, except with heavy oil no one wants.

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  7. Here's an interesting article about how Obama treats Cubans http://translatingcuba.com/u-s-government-snubs-the-independent-cuban-press/

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  8. Daniel.
    You have become a bit unhinged. Maduro is not Hitler. Hitler could start a world war. Maduro can only start a war with British Guiana.
    Do not mistake "no one gives a shit" for "appeasement". No one in the USA gives a damn about Venezuela. It is just not on anyone's radar. VZ oil is not significant to the US economy. the only way for Madura to get attention will be to acquire atomic weapons. And, then, you will see the US Marines.
    ,dave

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    Replies
    1. Errh...... Could you point out where I suggest Maduro can start a world war? When Chavez himself could not send tanks to Colombia as they got entangled in traffic jams.....

      If what bothers you is "jewing" not only Hitler has no exclusivity for killing jews but Castro-chavismo has abundantly shown its antisemitism. I invent words but for a reason :-)

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    2. My first point was: Godwin's Law.

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    3. That is not fair. For GLaw to apply you need at least a discussion of a couple of dozen comments. And you were the one with the H word first.
      😜

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    4. If we're talking about dictators, Goodwins Law does not apply. Otherwise how can we discuss dictators wout mentioning one of them? If we are discussing other stuff it may apply.

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    5. Anonymous3:47 PM

      Dave, Maduro cannot start a war with anyone not even Guyana. They had the opportunity to patrol and challenge the new zone and they did not because they cannot. The cost is too high and would have put them eye to eye with the US Navy.

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    6. Anonymous3:54 PM

      Dave, you are very wrong that no one in the US gives a shit. Who was Kerry with recently? Obama does care and probably more than you. I can say this with a measure of assurance.

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    7. Anonymous4:01 PM

      Dave, yes, terrorism and WMD and the hot bottons. With Venezuela and our clandestine agencies (CIA, etc), it's terrorism and counter-terrorism. Narcotics/counternarcotics is DEA and the investigations are ongoing but whether indictments will go down and be unsealed is political and most likely will not happen during this administration's final days and upcoming US presidential election. Venezuela will be allowed to implode and then maybe the US and the international community including CUBA will be allowed to pick up the pieces but that is for the next WH administration to decide. Venezuela has been mentioned in just about every high-level US-Cuba meet.

      Delete
  9. Anonymous8:49 AM

    Here's the real "Foreign Fiasco" : The stupidity and/or ignorance of a severely uneducated population that sees its Colombian "president" constantly fly on a Cuban plane to China begging for more money, and still thinks that’s normal, just fine, and still loves Chavez and Chavismo. Retarded Zombies is what they've become, over % of them.

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  10. My understanding is that the reason for the Colombian issue is that Bolivian National Guards are running drugs using Colombian paramilitaries. That the killings was a botched deal and that Cabello sent in the military to claim the territory for his drug distribution/movement. All the crap with the nobody Colombians is just to cover up the Military action.

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    1. Anonymous3:56 PM

      its not just the BNG and Colombian paramilitaries running coke and paste across the frontier. It's far greater than this.

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    2. Boludo Tejano9:41 AM

      An irony being here that the "Colombian paramilitaries" partnering with the BNG in drug trafficing are FARC people, who are in Venezuela with the consent and support of the GOV. When Maduro denounces "Colombian paramilitaries," rest assured he is NOT referring to the FARC.

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  11. I'm not sure I would call the U.S. moves "appeasement" since the U.S. didn't give anything. If anyone was a released as a result of the Shannon meeting, then it was worth it. As for Cabello, he would still be where he whether or not he'd met Shannon.

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    1. Anonymous7:14 PM

      ConcDemo, the US did give something: a photo opp with one of the worlds biggest drug lords. Have you not noticed that Shannon is now out of the picture? Shannon was the POINT MAN and he blew it. He had no team providing him w/forward and real-time intelligence thus he walked right into the trap. Kinda silly and stupid coming from the most powerful nation on earth.

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  12. Say what you want about Obama and without a doubt they could have had a lot better. But consider the fact that when he took over from Bush the country was in a tailspin about to crash and burn. They had lost all respect from the international community with only one option left to them and that was bullying to influence foreign policy. Now coming to Obama's term end the country is finally getting back on track both economically and in international policy influence. Still has a very long way to go but they are not in a tailspin anymore. I believe (without proof of course) that Obama's administration in talks with Saudi's had everything to do with the current oil price and the current mess the regimes in Venezuela, Russia, Iran etc are in. All built their power and influence on the world during Bush's term.
    There is only so much publicly the USA can do and seems to me they are doing a lot to right the S America mess created by Bush.

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    1. Anonymous8:26 PM

      Snowbird, please stick to venezuela. You are distracting

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    2. Anonymous8:29 PM

      Snowbird, creo que el precio del petroleo y la situacion economica son mas grandes que un presidente americano

      Delete
  13. The USA and Europe do not give a flying fuck about Kleptozuela.

    They have hundreds of much more more important issues to deal with worldwide, no one cares about Cubazuela's cheap, heavy oil anymore. Get over it.

    ReplyDelete

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