Wednesday, December 09, 2015

100 days of MUD

I suppose that the tradition of the cabalistic "first hundred days/measures/laws" comes from the first famous 100 days, the ones of Napoleon return to Elba which ended in Waterloo. The regime may want to ponder about that history tidbit, the more so that Waterloo bicentennial was celebrated earlier this year.


Last night we had the distinct feeling that Maduro and Cabello were operating as if they had decided for a speedy return from Elba, ignoring the trashing they got 2 days earlier. Napoleon at least spent enough tine in Elba to mark it for history. And while they plan a crash return/hold to power the rest of the world will take 100 days to find a definite way to get rid of the bolivarian monstrosity. Indeed, what Napoleon achieved in 100 days was the lost of any French recovery at the Vienna meeting, where Talleyrand was surprisingly achieving better terms than expected. After Waterloo not even Talleyrand could do a thing.

What can the opposition do? It all depends whether the outburst of Maduro and Cabello are a representation of chavismo or their desperate cry as they sense chavismo maybe willing to sacrifice them. For the following discussion let's assume that they represent chavismo (the other case is easier, these anti Maduro factions will quickly come to the forefront and we'll deal with them as constructively as possible).

The 100 days (or 30 or 50, does not really matter) started ticking yesterday December 8 and thus the resolution of the conflict is for, at the latest, early March. By then the economic and humanitarian crisis will have swept all parties anyway.

My suggestion for the opposition is very simple, find ways to explain to the country that the economy is a matter for the government to resolve and that the new Assembly will kindly oblige by reviewing speedily any proposal sent to them. Period. (1)

For that communication offensive the new Assembly can do the following: the chair can call for cadenas (mandatory broadcasts), there are precedents; the CONATEL law that regulates communications can be modified on the first days of the tenure so that the remaining subjugated but still alive media can unshackle their transmissions from self censorship as the regulatory agency will not be able to fine them anymore for thought "crimes". Plus other measures like recovering ANTV that will take more time.

Along leaving the dead economy at the regime door step the new Assembly should be sworn in with already a few law projects to recover intuitions and civil rights, forgetting about revenge or control. This can come only later, once the pulse between the executive and legislative power reaches an equilibrium of sorts. In no particular order since that one must be decided as events unfold, the Assembly should be sworn in with the following measures ready to go: amnesty law; call for nominations for a new CNE; revision of law that assigns a mandatory part of the nation's income to the provinces; suspend for a year any bill for weapon procurement; suspend punitive laws like SUNDEE that will have by itself already positive effects on the economy.

The regime will of course oppose every single one but it will be difficult for it to defend such opposition on public opinion as it will point to its unfairness, corruption, abuse and incompetence, reasons why people voted massively against the regime. And if the regime opposition becomes too vehement then there will be the excuse for the Assembly to call for a recall election or a constituent assembly. The 100 days will end there, in a food crisis and a collapse of the regime.

I suspect that there will be enough folks inside chavismo that will not want to sink with Maduro and Cabello and that before the 100 days are over they will have either started negotiations or asked Maduro to resign.

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1) regular readers will remember that I wrote over the week end a decalogue which is still valid, what I am writing above being more of a question of pace as the regime is acting foolishly.

19 comments:

  1. Maybe they can finally determine where Maduro was born.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Trying to explain Waterloo or Talleyrand to the Chavista uneducated thugs in power is like attempting to teach French to Delcy or Cilia Flores. Or Mandarin to Maduro.

    My take is simple: they know their days are numbered, and they will just continue to do what they do best: bribe, intimidate, steal lots of money, as fast as possible.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They don't know their days are numbered. Gengis Khan was kept on a wooden yoke until he escaped.

      Delete
  3. It is very important that MUD has the ability to broadcast parliamentary sittings as would not put it by Maduro to cancel social programs and raise fuel prices and say the opposition did it to turn the poor against them. All comes down to whether the military supports the constitution or not.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The military doesn't support the constitution. But the generals don't want to see everything fall apart and find themselves in The Hague in a few years. Having the ability to broadcast is easy, all they have to do is pass laws intended to allow a free press. For example, they could REQUIRE that National Assembly sessions be covered by national broadcasters and have the full content of the first four hours on the air from 2 AM to 6 AM. They can also legislate an end to the NTN24 ban from Venezuelan national cable systems. You guys know how the system is wired up. Change it for the better.

      Delete
  4. "I suspect that there will be enough folks inside chavismo that will not want to sink with Maduro and Cabello and that before the 100 days are over they will have either started negotiations or asked Maduro to resign."

    Fingers crossed!

    ReplyDelete
  5. My thoughts were along those same lines.
    My advice to the new AN would simply be: force the Government to conform to the letter of the constitution. The new Assembly can't be accused of getting instructions from Washington if their main job is to make sure Chavismo obeys the law of the land.
    That means rules passed violating the letter of the constitution (i.e. for TSJ and CNE appointments and for public spending) are observed to the letter.
    Corruption and clientelism cannot survive playing on a transparent and even field.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Daniel, as a long-time, gringo reader who lives in the US but in fascinated by the Venezuela story I just want to say that your helped save your country! There were times over the years when I felt that the only honest, perceptive news I could get was from your blog. And there were times when I worried for your safety. If the Venezuela story now changes from the dark tragedy it has been to an uplifting one of reconciliation and better lives for its people, you are one of many who deserve credit for your persistence and braverly

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezG3ym4PRdg

      Delete
    2. Anonymous8:46 PM

      no pares a lalocura

      Delete
  7. Happy to see you posting again Daniel
    I wonder about the possibility of the government dissolving the assembly.
    Someone already said they can do it according to the constitution

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:43 AM

      The people have spoken. They want change. A major attempt to override this will result in complete chaos. Maduro would be out within hours.

      Delete
  8. http://www.abc.es/Media/201308/14/maduro-saibaba--644x362.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4OhIU-PmB8

      Delete
  9. So what happens if this parliamentary gives special powers to Maduro over parliament. Can the next one revoke them?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In today's Venezuela the final decision will be made by the military.

      Delete
    2. If the lame-duck AN tries to remove the rights of its popularly-elected successor, that would be a coup d'état.

      Delete

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