Saturday, January 27, 2018

Macron does Maduro, or how to make a big mess of your so called foreign policy

Last night I read in awe the words of French President Emmanuel Macron on Venezuela (1). Not necessary for what he said, after all he did not send the French Foreign legion to land in Venezuela. But the circumstances make them almost extraordinary, as extraordinary as the idiotic to muted reply of the regime.


Act 1 was the expulsion of Spain's ambassador to Venezuela. The regime clearly sought to pick up a fight with Spain's government starting with Maduro's own lewd comment on a sexual position that Mariano Rajoy should take so the Venezuelan people would have a better go at him. Whether disappointed by the muted reaction of Rajoy who dismissed Maduro as a nothingness or the sanctions of Europe against 7 high ranking Venezuelan officials, Maduro decided to expel the Spanish ambassador in Venezuela. I suppose that in their minds, those of Maduro and his foreign office, they thought that Rajoy just asked the 28 EU countries to write those sanctions as some form of revenge. After all, this is how it works inside the regime where Maduro or Diosdado call the high court to jail of disbar whoever they want.  But in the EU that is not the way.

Act 2 was Argentinian president Mauricio Macri visiting French president in Paris, both fresh out of the Davos summit where both did rather well.  During the press conference to everyone's surprise, probably even Macri's, Macron had the strongest words against the Venezuelan regime heard from any European head of state so far, and as strong or stronger than those of Trump or Santos. He said that the authoritarian drift of the regime was unacceptable and that the EU should apply further sanctions, as well as other countries (I am looking at you Macri).
Guy Savoy may not be offering arepas in his menu but
lack of food in Venezuela may have been in the talks.
The Macrons night out with the Macris.

We can learn a few things from that. First, for Macron to come out so strongly during a press conference without notes means only one thing: he is well informed on the Venezuelan dossier and has taken a personal interest in it. In serious countries the president or chancellor or prime minister is the last one to speak, when all decisions are already taken. Preliminaries trial balloons are left for foreign ministers and the like. When intellectual Macron speaks that is that.

The second thing is that not only Europe is willing to act (following the US and Canada had) but it is sending a clear message: the group of Lima, first 12 countries and now 14, is asked to start taking actions. That is, they had the nice talk against Maduro's regime but it is time for them to go beyond words. They cannot leave all the dirty work to the others. We must note that for better or for worse Macron is currently the leader of Europe. The UK is plagued by Brexit and Theresa May seems clearly in deep water; Merkel is neverendingly trying to form a government; Italy is getting ready for elections; and Spain still emerging from its crisis does not have yet the weight to be a singing voice there.  So, for the time being Macron is the stable leadership filling up the temporary vacuum and as such they all sort of agree on that. And certainly countries like Sweden, Netherlands etc. are seeing eye to eye against Venezuela.

Which bring us to act 3, the poor reaction of Venezuela.  We are certain of one thing, Venezuela read poorly the potential European reaction. First, they clearly do not understand that EU decisions of that nature must be taken unanimously, or at least unopposed. That is, even Greece's Tzipras did not go against the EU sanction decided a week ago. The second thing is that European solidarity is much stronger than Venezuela ever expected. Insulting Rajoy and then pretending to be the aggrieved party  by expelling his ambassador is seen as an insult for all EU countries. I mean, Casa Amarilla did not have the talent to expel the resident EU ambassador in Caracas, they just cowardly, and for obscure and racist reasons, picked up on the Spanish one.

The communique against Macron words by the foreign ministry at Casa Amarilla will remain an example on what not to write, whether Macron is right being besides the point. Never mind that the communique to refute the EU on the expulsion of the Spanish ambassador speaks of all but the reasons why Venezuela felt justified in expelling the said ambassador.  A very messed up structure at Casa Amarilla, what happens when all career diplomats are replaced with incompetent and ignorant people put there because they will not be red faced when they utter the most stupid inanities. In both communiques the regime cannot argue, just mock.  Simply pathetic, a text book case of ideological but incompetent diplomacy that more than likely does not even benefit at the home front since the chavista lumpen will not understand the references....

Act 4 has started to unfold as Macri today felt emboldened to state that Argentina will not recognize the presidential elections to be held in current conditions. He is joining other countries that have already said so.  We must note in Macri's words the following:

 "A esta altura creo que a Maduro no le interesa nada de lo que se le planteé, él tiene claro que quiere tener un dominio sobre Venezuela por muchos años y aquel que no le guste lo que hace, lo que tiene que hacer es irse de Venezuela". At this point I believe that Maduro does not care about anything that he is told, he is certain that he wants to retain domination of Venezuela for many years and whomever does not like what he does has just leave Venezuela.

Which is the crux of the matter in the renewed rejection of Maduro's dictatorship, a refugee crisis of dimensions never expected in the Western hemisphere, just so that a camarilla of military narco gangsters can go unscathed while keeping disturbing the whole area.

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1- The thread I wrote last night in Spanish late, and developed more here in English. It is 4 tweets in a row.


6 comments:

  1. Anonymous1:49 AM

    What is France? NOTHING, a 3rd world colony faced with a civil war between the French, Africans and Muslims. Macron a cuck married to an old lady, Merkel's lapdog. It would've been nice if Trump or Putin have said something but Putin probably welcomes instability in the US backyard, and Trump is mired in scandals and deep-state interference and sabotaje.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your grasp of international matters is only matched by those at Casa Amarilla. You should apply for a job there.

      Delete
    2. If France lobbies to have additional dictatorship capos put under sanctions, the eu will likely support it. And if his call for sanctions by Latinamerican nations is heeded, then sanctioned individuals will have less locations to hide their stolen money. I can also see the huge number of Venezuelans outside the country may be able to create a small revolutionary army with USA and other help, and enter Venezuela with USA air and naval support. This strategy worked well in Kosovo, with the Liberation Army providing about 8000 ground troops and USA and British planes providing air cover. In other words, the end game isn't set, but as more nations join sanctions it becomes more feasible to use physical means to take down the regime.

      Delete
  2. Charly9:47 AM

    Anon, I know it hurts but, please, have a little bit of respect for yourself, don't show it that openly.

    I just read the latest article by Marianella Salazar. The title speaks volumes: "La Unión Europea les dio en la madre". Attaboy!

    ReplyDelete
  3. The political solidarity mounting against the regime is getting strong, however acts from the USA and Argentina to not recognize the election means nothing. What difference does it make to the regime if they recognize it or not. All the rogue countries like Cuba, North Korea, even Russia has bogus elections that no sophisticated country recognizes but once you go rogue like the regime has all you can hope for is the rest of the world ignores you. Currently, in your words Daniel, the regime is attempting a genocide, killing off the sick and those outside of the regime support. The regime just uses all of this as their justification to their followers that it is the sanctions, etc by the world causing these pains. The followers, which in Venezuela are over 5 million (amazing), are too stupid/ignorant/corrupt to not accept the regimes justification for the pains. They desire isolation from the sane parts of the world and as a band of murdering thieves want to only rub elbows with their kind.
    But make no mistake if the powers behind the USA wanted them out they would already be out. The CIA can bribe and corrupt better then anyone. It would not take them long to dismantle this regime if they truly wanted to. Most of what is done is to appease us simpletons to look like they want them out. Much of the world's economic power houses want those oil fields temporarily out of play, and the last thing the USA would want is a super power country with its act together and unlimited wealth as a neighbor to the south.

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  4. No, Canadian, the Americans are not involving themselves because they have much more important and pressing concerns, and, besides, they would prefer that latin american institutions and countries handle the challenge, with quiet U.S. backing.
    It will take many years, and serious money, before V. oil production moves towards optimum, and in places, ownership will probably be in dispute for years once the regime goes.
    Fwiw, much of the Southern U.S. refinery capacity was built specifically to handle V. crude, and now uses Cdn. heavy crude as a replacement, not their own lighter crude which doesn't suite the refineries.

    ReplyDelete

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