Sunday, June 10, 2018

A way out for Venezuela: the regime options

What can the regime do at this point?

Since its sole wish is to remain in power to avoid jail, they have clear objectives. Unfortunately for them the strategy to reach them has to change almost daily as events seem to escape any sort of control.  Thus the regime sticks to three main lines and lets circumstances dictate adjustments.


The genocide /migration card

It worked in Cuba until Mariel, though arguably Cuba was less genocidal then. That came later when the country collapsed once USSR subsidies came to a halt. Then all sorts of diseases started to appear in spite of what people wanted to believe was an advanced health system. How can you verify the numbers offered by a dictatorship? What good is it if medics do not have the means to treat people, assuming they have the knowledge...  But moral diseases also came through turning the young into jineter@s, that is both male and female prostitution.

The neo-totalitarian state being constructed by the regime is looking lighthearted at the migration wave out. The best and brightest already left. But they were opposition, good riddance. Now the middle and low is leaving. Good riddance, less people to feed.  That medication from HIV to renal transplants is now inexistant does not matter: these people are a burden. Eugenics here we come! Besides they can blame it on the sanctions even though the health system collapse predates the first sanctions. But the regime speaks to its lumpen base and they are more than willing to take it, bait, hook and sink.

Hunger and insecurity are also deliberate parts of the plan. If you do not feel safe then you will go out as little as possible, less probability to join a protest movement. And if your life is consumed by the search for food, well, the regime gets double bonus: it controls you politically and you have no time to protest.

The circle the wagons card

The totalitarian genocidal human rights dirty abuse is not unnoticed outside.  If this is the XXI century and it cannot be forgiven, that does not mean that some foreign army will land on Venezuelan shores any time soon; though I think that the regime should not be so assured that no intervention will take place. But to bee fair so far it is been a rather limited sanctions system. There are risks though, but I doubt that unless some stronger sanctions are taken the regime will not budge.

The defense strategy there is to break away of all international associations, to become a deliberately closed, isolated country. It does not matter much to the regime, they are getting used to the idea that soon they will never be able to leave Venezuela except for Cuba....  Other country(Russia?) are too far away in case a fuel stop or emergency landing is required...  and Interpol awaits for you at the end of the plane stairs. Eventually over time people will start to get used to a totalitarian Venezuela and the regime will regain some relations. A little bit like it happened for Qaddafi in Libya. Even Obiang can leave here and then his country. Although it infuriates Maduro et all not to be able to show off their wealth overseas, the other option, jail, is really not that appealing.

So it will be a few years of isolation. But once all those that wants to leave left, then who should be complaining anymore about Venezuela?

The soft repression card

This one is trickier because it does require that terrible images of repression circulate through Twitter and Facebook to scare away people. But not so much that a sudden outburst of revolt were to come. And the gods forbid, trigger a foreign intervention.

What the regime will do is to shut down any protest that could gain any visibility. They are doing that already, beating up sick ward folks blocking the streets to claim for their medication.  In the end the objective is to have an official opposition into which people do not believe but that will be around and still getting enough votes to pretend that there is a democracy. It already works, see May 20 results. I will continue working, see Russia.

Venezuela will not be as closed that Cuba but leaving will be difficult for the costs. For the occasional visitor hotels could still have CNN.  And more of the like, we are in the XXI century after all. But for those who dare to look up, even if briefly, the totalitarian state and its repressive apparatus are already well set.

Thus depending of the situation the regime as its goal well established and three action plan based on the above premises.  What can we do against this?


5 comments:

  1. "What can we do against this?"
    You have to win the troops over to your side.
    That is, get them to not shoot.
    See: The Carnation Revolution.

    ReplyDelete
  2. First of all....you must stop being the opposition...force the Regime to recognize what you are..Venezuelan.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous8:06 AM

    Another option, and far more effective option, is to increase the use of mass terror, violence, murder and to implement a forced labor/gulag/death camp system.
    This works(ed) very well in the former USSR, N.Korea and Cuba and Maoist China.
    Since Maduro and his fellow thugs are communists, the use of mass terror will be excused and rationalized by the international "community," and in the not to distant future, we will see "educated" college kids here in the USA and Europe wearing Maduro and Chavez T-shirts.
    Also, expect Maduro to be invited to the UN to give a speech - which will receive a standing ovation - after which the millionaire, progressive Manhattan glitterai will invite Maduro to a big fancy shamncy reception hosted by Robert DeNiro, DeBlasio and other assorted TV, movie, Broadway and media folks.
    Yep, it will be a real humdigger.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Some part of the army is required...possibly to put down an uprising...and then changes sides. Impossible at this time to even imagine an uprising, and i'm not suggesting or supporting one, just mentioning that, as one thing leads to another, a minor uprising that requires the army's attention could, just could, be the start of change.
    As you suggest Daniel, when people are busy as heck just trying to get enough food, supplies etc to survive, who has the time and energy to get involved in an adventure of that sort...so maybe i'm totally wrong.
    The other possibility is a split within those who rule......leading to change.
    Terrible situation. Tyranny is one thing, and bad enough, inept tyranny is a disaster. Venezuela's oil production continues to plummet, possibly to the point that there are not enough goodies to feed the big boys and girls and still dribble enough down to those who still support them on the streets......and that could also lead to unrest, this time amongst the regime's supporters.
    When something can't continue......it won't.....

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  5. I think many people would support an uprising even with their lives. Issue has been all we have seen is useless protests. People do not want to suffer the wrath of the regime just for a useless political protest. Seems to me the opposition may have done them on purpose to take the fight out of the people. The opposition has played into the regime at most every step.
    As for the plummeting oil production it is not due to ineptness. Was always the plan from those behind the scenes. Drive Venezuela back to the stone age and left owing and dependent on others for a very slow recovery that never allows Venezuela to reach its potential which would have less S America to power revaling N America. The 2nd Venezuela has no way forward the regime will change and the oil field wealth will benefit rich companies and Venezuela people will get little which will seem like a lot.
    Anyone who could pull of the destruction of every democratic level of government certainly had the intelligence to make the oil fields produce and certainly wouldn't have destroyed all other forms of income at the same time. All a grand plan that the Venezuela people are the only victims of.
    Played like a story book, big oil wealth to allow gifts to corrupt all and get democratically in control and justify massive bonds and debt to the tune of 140 billion. Then low oil prices to justify all the wealth to be stripped away such that anyone with a backbone would leave and mindless remaining will go with whatever the future brings.

    ReplyDelete

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