tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post2634186325687235225..comments2024-03-18T19:50:24.376+01:00Comments on Venezuela News And Views: Hot predictions for the September election!Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-41032004614504446802010-04-26T12:52:57.531+02:002010-04-26T12:52:57.531+02:00I am sorry for the URLs, I thought the system woul...I am sorry for the URLs, I thought the system would transform them into the proper links.<br /><br />UCC,<br />I don't see how this can work, really. We are not talking about guerrilla tactics where people or units have to spread. We are talking about organizations. Something like this is highly innefficient even in the best case scenario, even in a developed nation.<br /><br />Just the sheer logistic thing: you need to spread the message, you need people to do it and you need some message, you need someone who gets things printed, distribute flyers, etc.Keplerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11125538872924743270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-66993959354619327282010-04-25T20:07:18.191+02:002010-04-25T20:07:18.191+02:00Then again it is much easier to attack and demoniz...Then again it is much easier to attack and demonize a few opposition parties than dozens.<br /><br />(feel free to tack this onto the last post)GeronLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13145189615256636055noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-52138745008906279882010-04-25T20:06:21.756+02:002010-04-25T20:06:21.756+02:00Maybe there should be some type of floor to get on...Maybe there should be some type of floor to get on the ballot nationally? Like 100,000 registered voter signatures or something to get a party on the ballot.GeronLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13145189615256636055noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-55183799994084112442010-04-25T09:55:36.494+02:002010-04-25T09:55:36.494+02:00Daniel,
I think you were a bit optimistic indeed....Daniel,<br /><br />I think you were a bit optimistic indeed.<br /><br />I think UCC has a very very very very very (I mean very) important point and I think most people living in Venezuela are not seeing it at all.<br />This has no comparison in any country I know of, unless it is Somalia or Afghanistan.<br /><br />Daniel showed the parties with likelihood to get a seat.<br />That is correct. What is not shown there (it is not possible) is what we have nationwide: a legion of parties, not 10, not 20, not 30, not 40 but even more.<br /><br />And whether we have now some (Venezuelan) "unity" thingie or not, the very existence of all those "parties", which are nothing more than a platform for some microcaudillo, is very damaging.<br />Just imagine this: what does it take to have some sort of secretary and a telephone? Imagine even 1/4 of those parties wanting to be more than just a mobile phone number and a guy.<br />How inefficient can it get?<br />You don't believe me?<br />Daniel, I link here to a couple of graphs I have shown elsewhere.<br /><br />1) results for 2008 elections in Libertador of Carabobo (almost 100 thousand voters, I think):<br /><br />http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_rZbKKDohSyc/S5UWCOGlXLI/AAAAAAAABL0/NFfjpp5c7lY/s1600-h/libertador.JPG<br /><br />Now a commune in Norway with the same amount of voters:<br />http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rZbKKDohSyc/S5J7wdpme-I/AAAAAAAABK0/c6hZuxlLTgE/s1600-h/nor.jpg<br /><br />Now: the sad thing is that this is not Third World Country versus Norway. It so happens that Chile, Brazil and COLOMBIA of all places are much closer to Norway when it comes to the amount of parties.<br /><br /><br />Same state, Valencia, lost "thanks" to caudillo Salas clan:<br /><br />http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rZbKKDohSyc/S5UR5Qpa-EI/AAAAAAAABLc/Ls2wLuNQw0w/s1600-h/valen.JPG<br /><br />Same state, San Diego, with a good mayor who can't stand Salas:<br /><br />http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_rZbKKDohSyc/S5US8akcBaI/AAAAAAAABLk/TZcB42ycxRY/s1600-h/sandiego.JPG<br /><br />And it gets worse for less central states. I did some analysis of Monagas. PJ got like 0.95% of the vote there and about 5 "united fronts" did better.<br /><br />Now we are not going "all parties for all, but with some lists and yet reality is still there: we have a million groups who are able to work together only for the least they can to see what they get out of it.<br /><br />Venezuelan parties are mostly empty shells with no ideology and what is worse: no plan for the country. If you don't have these things, even if they are for yourself, you don't have a target, you don't have power to motivate your own people, much less others.<br /><br />Most of these parties should just disappear. At the very least, most Venezuelans should realise they need to take a decision and really go massively for 3, 4 parties at most. That is enough to represent the different main ideologies.Keplerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11125538872924743270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-15802885859197151542010-04-25T06:19:43.947+02:002010-04-25T06:19:43.947+02:00anonymous
it is not 31%, it is 31 seats.anonymous<br /><br />it is not 31%, it is 31 seats.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-59071643159778962532010-04-25T05:58:42.129+02:002010-04-25T05:58:42.129+02:00UCC
Venezuela has a multiparty political traditio...UCC<br /><br />Venezuela has a multiparty political tradition. Between 1958 and today only three assemblies had a party with an absolute majority by itself, 1958, 1993 and 2005, if memory serves me well. Coalitions were necessary for all the other assemblies, never mind that the 1958 one lost an absolute majority soon enough.<br /><br />Chavez of course does not like that, preferring a neat division between himself and the imperialists lackeys on the other side. through polarization of the political speech and changing the electoral law he tries to get that, with him on top of course.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-61435937696979523472010-04-25T05:56:00.047+02:002010-04-25T05:56:00.047+02:00I look at the 31% and think there is only one thin...I look at the 31% and think there is only one thing impossible.<br />Taking your pants off - over your head.<br />I don't believe (g)god has the upper hand always.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-48970262201249131512010-04-25T04:42:34.024+02:002010-04-25T04:42:34.024+02:00Too many opposition parties?
Or would unifying th...Too many opposition parties?<br /><br />Or would unifying them too much make them too tempting a target for the secret police?GeronLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13145189615256636055noreply@blogger.com