tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post7357949927938811776..comments2024-03-26T00:37:34.943+01:00Comments on Venezuela News And Views: Vote for Leopoldo, pray for Maria Corina, but bet on HenriqueDanielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-74950708778327758572012-01-28T17:07:19.709+01:002012-01-28T17:07:19.709+01:00El ultimo anonymous,
If you could be a little cle...El ultimo anonymous,<br /><br />If you could be a little clearer and more specific it would be nice.<br /><br />But one thing: Chavez being right about the ills of the 4rth Republic required no genius, nor is he the only one that parrots that....but unfortunatly at this point the 4rth Republic looks like paradise compared to Chavismo.firepigettehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17348890269608169297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-35943962847178854182012-01-28T03:50:13.709+01:002012-01-28T03:50:13.709+01:00A mi, todo esto me recuerda a la ultima elección p...A mi, todo esto me recuerda a la ultima elección presidencial de Colombia... Un candidato declarado ganador por todas las encuestadoras y presidente de una vez en todas las redes sociales... hasta que llega el día de las elecciones y todo los que creían que las cartas estaban echadas salen asombrados...<br />Para mi, el 12F muchos van a terminar de entender el por que las encuestadoras nunca pegan una en este país, el por que siempre nos dicen que vamos a ganar cuando perdemos y que vamos a perder cuando ganamos.<br />Es muy triste todo lo que esta pasando con esta división de facto que esta pasando en la oposición, se que muchos no se han dado cuenta, a lo mejor por la emoción del momento que se vive... pero estamos divididos ahora en dos oposiciones, una que supuestamente representa el pasado y otra que supuestamente representa el futuro... una de ellas, pretende ganar ganar las primarias habiéndole mierda a la que acusa de representar el pasado, sin pensar en que va a hacer cuando, de llegase a ganar, esa que representa al pasado la va a tener montada en el mismo barco... como piensan contrarrestar los ataques del gobierno cuando por sus propias afirmaciones le dicen al país, que lo que ha estado diciendo el chavismo todos estos años es cierto... que (gran parte de) la oposición representa a ese pasado oscuro de la historia venezolana... esto me parece lo peor que le ha podido pasar a la oposición en muchisimo tiempo... ese pasado/futuro que quieren meternos a todos en la mente.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-8782475426354785232012-01-27T14:05:08.061+01:002012-01-27T14:05:08.061+01:00geez, you still exist?!? with all the whining abou...geez, you still exist?!? with all the whining about chavez, you lead people to think you'd be disappeared by now. drifted into irrelevancy perhaps<br />-AntonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-48125512729246570042012-01-26T23:40:01.296+01:002012-01-26T23:40:01.296+01:00By the way, just found and interesting article tha...By the way, just found and interesting article that reads similar to my post in CNN: http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/26/capriles-radonski-and-the-new-venezuelan-opposition/karlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-40102228395452306122012-01-26T22:57:54.810+01:002012-01-26T22:57:54.810+01:00Daniel
We have to differentiate between the here a...Daniel<br />We have to differentiate between the here and now and what we wish in the future for a better Venezuela. I do believe that given enough time to develop, a center right party will become an option to the democratic left and Chavismo but that time is not now. The same way we voted for Ledezma a few years back, I see our option this year as a compromise to improve on Chavismo. <br />I believe that a show of strength for the winner of the primaries will help overcome the critics that will surely argue that a leader that got less than 50% of the vote does not represent the opposition and for better or worse, today that is Capriles.<br />The opposition is already shorthanded in resources and message, specially when the government has a likable candidate in Chavez (not my take but all the polls) and is ready to spend its way to reelection in a massive show of populism. As a popular saying affirms "Galan con chequera, mata a cualquiera". Their main handicap is that they are so corrupt and inefficient that they will probably be only partly effective with that strategy. <br />In my take, the poorest members of society are always the least likely to vote for change if the freebies that they are getting are not offered. I don't believe that we are going to convince the masses this time around against a formidable foe, if not with a moderate recipe of "pan y circo", even if it upsets my stomach every time I hear it. We should add the guarantees of a free judicial system, clear investment rules and incentives, promises to try to end both white collar and "ordinary" crime, etc. but always guaranteeing "pan y circo". We should point to PDVAL, PDVSA, Balneario El Guaire, etc. as proofs of the incompetent nature of Chavismo but at the same time validate our desire to provide those services efficiently. I make not like the message, but it is a necessary one and Capriles is campaigning with it.karlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-1729888881967991752012-01-26T20:47:53.413+01:002012-01-26T20:47:53.413+01:00Daniel, thanks for noting that about CAP. I was c...Daniel, thanks for noting that about CAP. I was citing an example I know and, despite having "served time" in Venezuela, I admit I know little about CAP and his policies, at least in detail. But I'm not at all surprised to hear something like that holds for Venezuela.<br /><br />And I certainly recall your personal U.S. history, and predilection for the larger version. (It was a sort of back-handed complient, by taking a swipe at myself - and maybe reminding myself I need to read more about it.) I certainly agree that U.S. history is well worth studying. I won't argue that it can be repeated anywhere, or even successfully mimicked, but I believe there is always something there than can apply in a meaningful way to other countries. I was reading something recently about corrupt cronies of the President and other bigwigs. And how were they undone, you might ask? Mostly one honest man, in a similar position, with significant help from the free press. So the lesson there may be that Venezuela is screwed. :/AIOnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-87484315350115024352012-01-26T16:02:56.256+01:002012-01-26T16:02:56.256+01:00Well, you got one thing right: I have never been o...Well, you got one thing right: I have never been one to go along with the herd, be it Chavez, Leo or now Henrique. In the end I always decide to support one cause or the other and devote myself to it, but I am usually late in the field and never stay longer than needed. The exception to my life I must confess may have been Leopoldo because I was fascinated by his struggle to get to the IACHR and win his case. Such tenacity I always find admirable and the portent of greater things to come.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-75482882912989621392012-01-26T15:57:27.261+01:002012-01-26T15:57:27.261+01:00Well, we do have a "nothing with Menem" ...Well, we do have a "nothing with Menem" already here. All the needed reforms that CAP made are now anathema and people 20 years after, even inside PJ and other oppo joints, repeat as a mantra of sorts that they will never do that, even if they know that they will have little choice but to retake some of CAP initiatives. in my book, if you are already screwed anyway, might as well make the best of it :)<br /><br />And thanks for appreciating the quote. But do not forget that I lived a few years in the US and I made a point to learn as much about US history as possible, recently finishing on my kindle a book about James K. Polk :)<br /><br />I think US history is truly fascinating, one of the grandest experiments in human endeavors, and still in progress which is even better.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-31497151159074364902012-01-26T15:51:54.021+01:002012-01-26T15:51:54.021+01:00Karl
There is a slight contradiction in your text...Karl<br /><br />There is a slight contradiction in your text: how can MCM start building a political party for future influences if for a pseudo pragmatism we decide to vote for Capriles anyway? It does not matter whether Capriles gets 40, or 50, or 60%, chavismo will always say that he does not represent the opposition. I could even push the envelope further saying that Leopoldo will not be an asset because chavismo will prone Capriles reaching agreements with felons, amen of being a felon himself for invading Cuba's embassy. And what not....<br /><br />Over-calculating strategy against Chavez now is not only ridiculous, it is a waste of time. Primaries are for the opposition to calibrate forces and forge post electoral alliances according to what inspired the opposition electorate. Only then a successful strategy to confront Chavez can be created. That is one of my gripes against Capriles, that he is using one of the tempting strategies to counter Chavez already in the primaries and thus making it less effective later for the general election.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-7806199833199794102012-01-26T15:11:23.196+01:002012-01-26T15:11:23.196+01:00Daniel
I almost agree with your analysis being a ...Daniel<br /><br />I almost agree with your analysis being a libertarian myself. That is why I enjoy MCM and Arria for running on a center right platform. <br />I enjoy MCM's emotional delivery and I believe that she truly wants to create a better Venezuela, but intentions are simply not enough. I think that maybe in the future, after founding a political party based on her values, she would be an awesome candidate. <br />I also think that Arria is right in most of what he proposes but I believe he is in it just to make a point and bring attention those things that other candidates are just not saying.<br />I fully agree with your analysis an Perez and Medina, thus it only leaves Capriles now, since Leopoldo decided to endorse him.<br />I am voting for Capriles, even if I do not like PJ and what it has become, because I believe that with Leopoldo's backing and charisma campaigning for him is now the best choice.karlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-40493396645970135592012-01-26T14:53:01.077+01:002012-01-26T14:53:01.077+01:00I doubt that gettting rid of Chavez can accurately...I doubt that gettting rid of Chavez can accurately be called "Chavez light". The worst features of Chavezism disappear with the man. Secondarily, removing the PSUV, a top-down communist party with a single, enforced "line", and replacing it with a government based on multi-party support will change things substantially.<br /><br />I see Capriles as appealing to lapsed Chavistas. Because Daniel was never tempted by Chavezmania, he may underestimate the size of this group.Jeffryhousehttp://jeffryhouse.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-67070734885080233182012-01-26T14:46:20.803+01:002012-01-26T14:46:20.803+01:00The Ortega point really nails my biggest fear in t...The Ortega point really nails my biggest fear in this election - really, even bigger than having Chavez win again - that the next president will perform so poorly that it makes Venezuelans wish for the days of Chavez again. Daniel writes about his worry that Capriles will not be (I paraphrase) "good enough," though I think one must also worry about a President who will be "too good," who will aim for undoing what Chavez did with no regard for the consequences.<br /><br />Think about Menem in Argentina, for example. He tried to go a different way from his predecessors, and the voters didn't like it. Perhaps if he had been more moderate, there would have been less backlash against him. Many of the things he did weren't bad at all, but they became anathema for being part of "the Menem years."<br /><br />It will really be a tightrope for this person to walk, with a long fall on EITHER side. Too much is dangerous, and so is too little. Really, the consequence of either is the same, the question is which is less likely and with whom.<br /><br />(By the way, Daniel, I expect to learn European history occasionally from your blog, but I admit I am humbled when I learn U.S. history here. Though in this case it was just the quote, which I did not remember; I knew what it meant when I read it. But kudos for that reference, nonetheless. It does fit very nicely.)AIOnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-67149626836168212542012-01-26T10:07:15.472+01:002012-01-26T10:07:15.472+01:00This anonymous just did not get it. Anonymous it&#...This anonymous just did not get it. Anonymous it's quite simple: the Sandinistas (Ortega) were defeated in the 1980's but the politicians that came after Ortega's defeat were so darn bad that Ortega is now back in power. <br /><br />What I think Daniel may be saying is that he is afraid, based on what he has seen, that Capriles may not be the right guy out of the current bunch of opposition candidates. Daniel is afraid that Capriles is showing to much similarity as the Nicaraguan politicians who came to power when the Sandinistas were first ousted. Is this right Daniel? Hopefully Capriles is not; as clearly none of us want a future return of the backwards Chavistas should they be defeated this year. Daniel has clearly stated that he will support the opposition candidate who will go against Chavez. But with the opposition primaries a few weeks away there is nothing wrong measuring, and analyzing the choices. Nothing more democratic than this.<br /><br />For me is much simpler; just get someone who can beat Chavez that is my one and only goal. Hopefully we will have a leader who will surround himself or herself with the right team. As there will be a lot of hard work ahead.<br /><br />Daniel keep up the great work. I noticed that your frustration in the last two years have come to a boil. Hope that you're OK. I enjoy and appreciate all you hard work.<br /><br /><br />Alejo, VZLA Paraiso Perdido.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-5268244135930130862012-01-26T06:45:10.805+01:002012-01-26T06:45:10.805+01:00Don't twist a question to avoid answering it, ...Don't twist a question to avoid answering it, FP. Are you voting in the MUD primaries?sydnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-42285854273786835732012-01-26T05:22:34.999+01:002012-01-26T05:22:34.999+01:00Syd,
.. if you have nothing to offer us anything ...Syd,<br /><br />.. if you have nothing to offer us anything but confusion, i would say you are having quite a good day :)firepigettehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17348890269608169297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-5421338653385663212012-01-26T04:52:35.910+01:002012-01-26T04:52:35.910+01:00I'm confused, FP. Are you voting in the MUD pr...I'm confused, FP. Are you voting in the MUD primaries?sydnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-36295753488704111792012-01-26T01:43:37.365+01:002012-01-26T01:43:37.365+01:00I very much agree with you here Daniel.
Sledge,
...I very much agree with you here Daniel.<br /><br />Sledge,<br /><br /> We hold elections to let everyone have their say and vote representatives into office. Some voters take advantage of it, and some choose apathy and don't vote, and others chose tactical voting. Some even try to anticipate what other voters might do, and cast a vote in an unexpected direction not to vote for a candidate, but to affect another candidate's chances.I personally respect the honest vote.If you recall many people voted for Chavez dishonestly out of revenge against the 4th republic....i was there, I saw it.<br /><br />But what many of them might not know is that virtually any electoral process is flawed. Some outcomes are surprising. There are a number of different circumstances in which the candidate most desired does not win.<br />And people cannot really participate in a democracy when their leaders are completely concealed under layers of mindless, gutless rhetoric.<br /><br />The fact is that truthfulness is the necessary condition of democracy and the cardinal virtue of public persons and those who support them.<br /><br /><br />However:"The truth, indeed, is something that mankind, for some mysterious reason, instinctively dislikes. Every man who tries to tell it is unpopular, and even when, by the sheer strength of his case, he prevails, he is put down as a scoundrel." HL Mencken<br /><br />But we have to struggle to uphold it even under difficult conditions.<br /><br />I lose my vote if I vote for the winner....my vote is honorable if I vote for the man or woman of my choice.Once the winner is chosen we can all stand behind him/her.firepigettehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17348890269608169297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-22428872760609082402012-01-26T01:19:18.529+01:002012-01-26T01:19:18.529+01:00Anonymous
You need to brush up on your Nicaragua ...Anonymous<br /><br />You need to brush up on your Nicaragua history before you write that I am comparing Capriles and Ortega. I know that being a PJ supporter may be demanding but I would never do such an awful comparison to any Venezuelan politician, not even Chavez.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-16062098510212413242012-01-26T01:03:43.252+01:002012-01-26T01:03:43.252+01:00Syd
Well, they both have plenty of opportunities ...Syd<br /><br />Well, they both have plenty of opportunities to blow it by February 12..... then I suppose I use short straws.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-46556676266780044692012-01-26T01:02:14.989+01:002012-01-26T01:02:14.989+01:00Who needs the RNV when you are comparing Capriles ...Who needs the RNV when you are comparing Capriles with Ortega?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-22767579364010975522012-01-26T00:59:45.590+01:002012-01-26T00:59:45.590+01:00I recently opened a bottle of Pisco that dated fro...I recently opened a bottle of Pisco that dated from the 1970s. Maybe I will drink it up upon hearing election results.Boludo Tejanonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-70690592069765746442012-01-26T00:33:44.877+01:002012-01-26T00:33:44.877+01:00Looks like another Chavista mob boss just preceded...Looks like another Chavista mob boss just preceded Hugo to the grave today. To paraphrase Freddy Mercury: " Another one bites...".Charlynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-21265804542660578462012-01-26T00:20:00.118+01:002012-01-26T00:20:00.118+01:00Actually, I think this could be a very good role f...Actually, I think this could be a very good role for Leopoldo right now. If I were Capriles, I'd tell him: <br /><br />"Epale, Leo, mira chamo, la vaina aqui se trata de tumbar a Chavez. Tranquilo, que trabajamos juntos, y te resuelvo tremenda posicion en nuestro govierno de transicion. <br /><br />Habla tu de esto, mientras yo hablo de otras vainas: "Segun las mas recientes encuestas, nuestra Unidad con Capriles es la unica opcion remotamente capaz de derrotar a Hugo Chavez. Al fin y de una vez por todas"<br /><br />Los electores Venezolanos deben entender, que al votar por otros candidatosm equivaldria a votar por Chavez, y quien sabe cuantos anos mas de repression y miseria. Porque? Muy sencillo, porque todos sabemos, con extremada certeza, -- a estas alturas de las encuestas y las imminentes elecciones-- que los demas candidatos no tienen absolutamente ningun chance de derrotar a Chavez.<br /><br />Piensenlo bien: que preferimos? un gobierno de Unidad sin Chavez? O mas de lo mismo que hemos soportado durante 12 anos? Depende de tu voto." <br /><br />And stuff like that.Sledgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00669696149094846115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-76234679804321747262012-01-25T23:59:32.011+01:002012-01-25T23:59:32.011+01:00Thank you for this food for thought, Daniel. Based...Thank you for this food for thought, Daniel. Based on your selection criteria, I'd say you might vote for MCM. For between her and DA, MCM shows the better managed/verbalized campaign.sydnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-70475560832725183982012-01-25T23:58:30.910+01:002012-01-25T23:58:30.910+01:00It's not about "ridiculing" anyone, ...It's not about "ridiculing" anyone, Daniel. I read these blogs because you guys are the one know know what's going on. I simply happen to agree with those who think now is not the time to go with our personal preferences among candidates. If that were the case, I'd probably vote for MCM, just for kicks. <br /><br />It's about kicking out the infamous dictator, NOW. Then we'll see.Sledgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00669696149094846115noreply@blogger.com