tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post9026283320469996188..comments2024-03-26T00:37:34.943+01:00Comments on Venezuela News And Views: Will Venezuela default on its debts? Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-27071478221843315272014-01-28T05:54:24.850+01:002014-01-28T05:54:24.850+01:00Agree with Dave. I am watching Argentina alsoAgree with Dave. I am watching Argentina alsoPapi-Mateohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07263862690858981363noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-58109576515890123502014-01-27T17:07:31.943+01:002014-01-27T17:07:31.943+01:00"Will Venezuela default on its debts?"
Y..."Will Venezuela default on its debts?"<br />Yes.<br />cf. ArgentinaDave Barneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07355264650239868491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-39024111700731315682014-01-27T03:34:23.647+01:002014-01-27T03:34:23.647+01:00No credit has been Castro's problem for years,...No credit has been Castro's problem for years, since the countries he trades with have long ago figured out he is a bankrupt deadbeat who won't ever pay up. This is why he is so desperately attached to Venezuela and it looks like he is steering the rojos towards having the same problem. If they keep borrowing money from China, eventually the whole 2.3 million barrels a day will have to go there. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-57102677281102433472014-01-27T03:26:19.004+01:002014-01-27T03:26:19.004+01:00Daniel, how much of the demand for dollars do you ...Daniel, how much of the demand for dollars do you think is "capital flight"?Gordohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15691999086847940690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-32633117014426757592014-01-27T03:09:01.502+01:002014-01-27T03:09:01.502+01:00Daniel, do you think that some of the black market...Daniel, do you think that some of the black market premium is due to a "contraband" effect? For example, illegal drugs would sell for less if they were legalized. I would expect that if the black market was allowed to operate openly, the price would fall. Likewise, if more dollars were available through official mechanisms, the black market rate would fall, even if the official exchange rate devalued the bolivar further!Gordohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15691999086847940690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-26988265974839866532014-01-27T02:21:39.167+01:002014-01-27T02:21:39.167+01:00Another concise and succinct article Daniel. Well...Another concise and succinct article Daniel. Well done! Please publish this one in Spanish also (for the same reasons that Eva Ripp requested, thanks!)<br />I agree this is an important piece and think it should be disseminated as widely as possible. <br />Papi-Mateohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07263862690858981363noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-78442612571206156882014-01-27T01:29:54.270+01:002014-01-27T01:29:54.270+01:00The problem with a default of any type is that no ...The problem with a default of any type is that no one will give you credit and the regime would have to do cash advances. How long could the charade last?Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-81672277183061455932014-01-27T00:31:55.952+01:002014-01-27T00:31:55.952+01:00The pricing of the economy is severely distorted. ...The pricing of the economy is severely distorted. You need to limit yourself to evaluate the price of basic stuff like food, restaurants, taxis. That 30 was my calculation from the last trip I took overseas 6 months ago. As for scotch, of course the black market is accurate. It was imported when that rate was close to 50 and now at 70 it is to the dot! ;-)Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-12659520133997164682014-01-26T23:52:31.869+01:002014-01-26T23:52:31.869+01:00Rafael Ramirez already said that you must prove th...Rafael Ramirez already said that you must prove that you used the dollars you received as intended. They are creating a lot of requirements before they pay the debt to the airlines. Besides, they are investigating the Navantia contract.<br /><br />You can add the opacity of the international reserves, with argentinian bonds (zip) and gold reserves wit undisclosed location.<br /><br />Sorry, but I've got a feelling that they don't wish to pay at all. Eduardonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-68521611863316098482014-01-26T23:25:44.223+01:002014-01-26T23:25:44.223+01:00Daniel, where do you get the 30 Bs/dollar conversi...Daniel, where do you get the 30 Bs/dollar conversion estimate? I notice a bottle of scotch will go for 2000 Bs generally costs $35 outside the country, so the black market rate seems accurate to me but I'm curious why you think it would be 30 if the currency was free floating.ConsDemohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15312125878554292999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-27017844467768413942014-01-26T22:35:33.114+01:002014-01-26T22:35:33.114+01:00By the way my translation of English to Spanish is...By the way my translation of English to Spanish is poor and the meaning would be lost, other ways I would do it myself. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08861338468338157427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-234966499859914432014-01-26T22:15:33.032+01:002014-01-26T22:15:33.032+01:00Either the government has people incapable of runn...Either the government has people incapable of running the economy or it it not convenient for them to get things better in Venezuela. See Daniel this is a very important blog. This could put light on many Venezuelans brains. Can you translate in Spanish so I can share it with all my friends and family. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08861338468338157427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-84379968737294381302014-01-26T20:18:48.747+01:002014-01-26T20:18:48.747+01:00So if it happens than what? Does the country marc...So if it happens than what? Does the country march with López or do they sit their banging pots and pans with Capriles inside of their closets.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-54044439254921277472014-01-26T19:16:46.433+01:002014-01-26T19:16:46.433+01:00Can a petrostate borrow so much in anticipation of...Can a petrostate borrow so much in anticipation of future oil revenues that it later encounters problems in paying its debt? Just ask any Mexican who lived through the presidency of José López Portillo, he of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/2004/feb/20/guardianobituaries" rel="nofollow">Dog Hill</a> fame.<br /><br />[When you vow to "fight like a dog" to defend the soon-to-be-devalued peso, and build a collection of mansions on a hill when you had little wealth before entering politics, your place gets named Dog Hill. ]<br /><br /> I recall reading in the year after after José López Portillo left office, he was eating in a posh restaurant in Mexico City. The patrons began barking. José López Portillo left without finishing his meal. Soon thereafter, he left for Spain. Poor Nicky- Cuba is not as comfortable place as Spain to pass your time in exile.Boludo Tejanonoreply@blogger.com