tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-40809462024-03-18T19:50:25.409+01:00Venezuela News And ViewsA blog about life under, and resisting, a dictatorshipDanielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comBlogger4660125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-72009233324066353722023-02-26T16:50:00.001+01:002023-02-26T16:50:25.595+01:00Homo chavistus<p>Con la guerra en Ucrania por encima del descalabro absoluto del país me pregunté cómo era posible todavía ser chavista. Sí, es una pregunta que uno se hace a veces, pero después de varios años fuera de Venezuela cuál sería la respuesta que le podría dar. Sin sentir el pulso del país por el mero hecho de ya no tener que hacer cola en algún supermercado o oficina de desgobierno, ¿cómo saber la evolución de las mentalidades?</p><p>Pero los hechos son tercos. Desde que me fui, durante la escasez perpetua, hubo la dolarización. Luego llegó el Covid y el cierre del país a nivel de cierre chino. La reapertura lenta del país vino de la mano de la “<i>pax bodegónica</i>”. Mientras tanto como malvada fuente de alivio para el régimen se iban del país centenares al día. Todo otra vez se vino abajo, sin sorpresa. Otra megadevaluación a fines del 2022 nos dejó boqueando otra vez.</p><p>Por cuarta, o quinta vez, o más, uno pierda la cuenta, volvió a ocurrir lo de siempre, miles de promesas, miles de leyes, miles de presos, y otra vez volvemos en la misma, con una caja CLAP menguante y ahora la desesperación absoluta para conseguir algunos dólares, la puerta al paraíso de alguna medicina vital para un pensionado cercano a la agonía.</p><p>¿Será que los chavistas no ven este tiovivo que nos devuelve al mismo lugar? ¿Será que son incapaces de aprender? ¿Será que el pasado ya no existe para ellos? </p><p>Claro está, no hablo de los poderosos del régimen y la jauría depredadora que los acompaña, protegida por sus guardaespaldas y represores. Esa gente hace tiempo que dejo de ser chavista, si es que algunos lo fueron. Esa gente sospecho dejó de ser humana hace tiempo. Tampoco hablo de los rehenes del régimen, esos pobres, de pobreza, chantajeados por una mal pagada chamba o una liviana caja CLAP. En cierta manera el régimen también les ha robado su humanidad.</p><p>Estoy hablando de esa gente que pregona su chavismo sin motivo aparente, con el agregado de criticar a Maduro y llamar a la vida el muerto. Esa gente también, si uno lee por ejemplo sus Time Line en Tweeter, no se ha preocupado por las masacres a mujeres en Irán. Menos se preocupan por los horrores de la invasión rusa a Ucrania, y van apoyando a nuestro primer sanguinario del siglo. ¡Y como siempre rematan echando toda la culpa a las sanciones, la oposición, el imperio maluco, los europeos decadentes y hasta los LGBT si fuese necesario! Por los dioses, ¿que pasa con esa gente, que pedazo de su corteza cerebral está estancado?</p><p>Vamos a estar claros: lo que ha pasado en Venezuela estos últimos 4 años ha sido traumático. Si el chavista de a pie no entendió que algo anda mal, pues nunca lo entenderá. Ya no podemos llamar al resentimiento social como la causante tara psicológica (eso lo dejamos a los hermanos Rodríguez). Tampoco se considera la falta de información ya que uno lo ve todo al salir de su casa. Ni siquiera se puede invocar el orgullo que prohíbe admitir la equivocación cuando uno ve la penuria humana por doquier. No, aceptémoslo, el chavismo ha creado un hombre nuevo, el <i>homo chavistus</i>.</p><p>En verdad, como reconstruiremos el país si los mejores se fueron y si no sabemos cuantos <i>homo chavistus</i> tenemos en nuestras sienes. Pero ha pasado algo también, una masa maltratada ha decidido no creer más en el régimen oprobioso. Tenemos ya dos meses de protestas genuinamente populares como maestros, obreros que protestan y protestan, sin liderazgo político, siendo liderados por el hastió. Que bueno, la esperanza renace.</p><p><br /></p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-3856525862367306262022-11-29T23:46:00.001+01:002022-11-29T23:46:08.681+01:00A force fed agreement in Mexico<p>The Venezuelan opposition delegates met the chavista's ones in Mexico, in a supposed restart of negotiations interrupted months ago. A curious thing was that they went all the way to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelas-frozen-funds-be-gradually-released-humanitarian-aid-2022-11-26/" target="_blank">Mexico city to sign a document already negotiated behind closed doors in Caracas</a>. So Mexico was an expensive show, <a href="https://talcualdigital.com/maduro-subraya-empeno-en-el-dialogo-y-que-buscan-recuperar-dinero-bloqueado-por-sanciones/" target="_blank">they could have stayed in Caracas</a>.....</p><p>This agreement started a storm in Venezuela even though people do not have access to all the information, even though it was already announced as a restart of negotiation, something far, very far from being a done thing. The Venezuelan public is at the same time so polarized and so divided (schizo?) that little else could be expected. Chavistas wondered how come the opposition delegation was not in jail, the Venezuelan opposition reaction was worse. For them if the delegation does not include who they support and does not address their favorite cause then it is worthless, traitorous even. That the good folks in tweeter let their ire run free is one thing but it is frightening when a leader of the opposition like Maria Corina Machado partakes in that lynching mood. </p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="es">Qué puede salir de una Mesa de “Negociación” que en la práctica ha sido una mesa de extorsión?<br />Una buena tajada para cada uno de los representados, incluyendo la ONU.<br />Quién representa allí a los venezolanos? Nadie.<br />Qué obtiene la gente? Nada.</p>— María Corina Machado (@MariaCorinaYA) <a href="https://twitter.com/MariaCorinaYA/status/1596868697872007168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p><br /></p><p>There she says that those in Mexico are going to split the monies negotiated, and that even the UN will get its take. I'll stop .....</p><p>In front of such histeria it is important to go back to the plain facts. First, the content of the agreement. 3 billion dollars of frozen assets (mostly in the US?) <a href="https://talcualdigital.com/la-onu-creara-un-fondo-comun-para-canalizar-la-ayuda-humanitaria-a-venezuela/" target="_blank">will be given PROGRESSIVELY to the UN that will use them to try to alleviate the suffering of the Venezuelan people</a>. The US oil giant <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-issues-expanded-license-allow-chevron-import-venezuelan-petroleum-2022-11-26/" target="_blank">Chevron will be allowed to operate in Venezuela on very limited objectives</a>, namely to restart some of its production capacity and sell its oil only in the US without giving much to Venezuela. The oil to be produced by Chevron will be considered as repaying the debt Venezuela has toward them. That will last up to 6 months if the Venezuelan regime keeps its promises AND continues to negotiate AND advances toward free and fair elections in 2024.</p><p>That is all. No need to go berserk.</p><p>To understand better it is necessary to recap some of the current political and geopolitical situation. The Ukraine war has changed everything. In addition of trying to help the Chevron lobby, Biden is trying to find new sources of oil. Venezuela, on paper, could multiply by 4 its current production and place at least 2 million barrels on the market. That also explains why France's Macron sat in Paris the two sides and obtained from them to go back to Mexico to sign on what they had already agreed upon. </p><p>The Maduro regime is in trouble. Its Russian ally and now its Iranian and Chinese ones are teetering and certainly in no mood to have Venezuela demand further attention. Cuba is flat broke and in much trouble of its own. And Maduro desperately needs money to grease his repression machinery. Nevermind that the "<i>bodegonomics</i>" miracle of partial dollarization of the country has reached its limits (1). Finally it downed in them that it may well be the last chance to negotiate before something collapses nastily. </p><p>The Venezuelan opposition is cool. It has played the sanction card rather well (note: sanctions are taken by the US and Europe, NOT by the Venezuelan opposition whose role is advisory at most). Thus the promise of alleviating some of the sanctions in agreement with the US is a nice carrot for the regime. It is testimony of the obtuseness and corruption of the regime that they held so late before agreeing on something, a something rather insignificant if you ask me.</p><p>Yet, even though the agreement is small and should not be hard to abide by all the parts, there are many dark clouds on it. First, <a href="https://talcualdigital.com/analista-estima-que-licencia-a-chevron-podria-recuperar-produccion-en-hasta-100-000-bpd/" target="_blank">the fast restart of oil production is a mirage. </a>In the c<a href="https://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2022/11/why-venezuela-cannot-be-fixed.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">urrent situation of the country</a> Chevron cannot hope to increase by much more than 30% its output for 2023. Significant increases will have to wait for the war in Ukraine may well be long over by the time Venezuela replaces part of Russian oil.</p><p>Second, <a href="https://talcualdigital.com/blyde-agencias-de-la-onu-deben-licitar-y-presentar-planes-que-sean-auditables/" target="_blank">organizing the humanitarian help will take time</a>. This help was certainly pressed on by the US to try to stem the flow of immigration that apparently is now reaching 7 million Venezuelans! But the UN needs to decide on what to do, then set it up, and then get the providers, and more important establish adequate controls to protect that help from being stolen by the regime as was the case in previous attempts.</p><p>Do not expect any visible improvement in Venezuela until 2024 if all goes well. In fact already the divisions of chavismo are playing as<a href="https://talcualdigital.com/cabello-asegura-que-proyectos-del-fondo-social-seran-decididos-por-el-gobierno-nacional/" target="_blank"> Diosdado Cabello who has nothing to gain from any settlement, stated</a> that it was going to be the regime that decides how the help will be shared. Within the regime many are scared at the idea of Cabello deciding on such things. </p><p><a href="https://talcualdigital.com/guaido-sobre-dialogo-estamos-listos-por-si-el-ejecutivo-no-cumple-o-abandona-la-mesa/" target="_blank">At any rate the opposition is ready to bail out of this agreement</a> as soon as the regime makes a move to undercut it. After all this time around it is the regime which has more to lose. </p><p>________________________________________________________</p><p>1) More than two years ago the regime with a damning hyperinflation decided to allow limited use of US dollars for import of goods that should be resold in Venezuela in dollars. This resulted in some economic improvement, made visible by the apparition of <i>bodegones</i>, stores specialized in selling outside of any price control and in US dollars. But the amount of dollars available for imports has not increased since the rest of the economic policies of the regime remain and these aim at controlling any free enterprise still in existence. Consequently for the past few months we start observing a stagnation of sorts that could only be avoided by increased production. Which I do not see happening in the near future.</p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-5595842577501425392022-11-09T00:56:00.003+01:002022-11-10T16:13:45.775+01:00Maduro charmed at Sharm El-Sheikh<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOczhXXXi3Xm4R9SihPyKwApf6i1EuFbLwXeOS7xNniYINpS17GNQMhMnDDFUxQ6C5Iv46qVW7GQ7fEMaP64rRHZPIcxJIRbzxF8V_vY67B45tVIpaj5fkNiTjBDon0u6KQUJqG6u34fxqn5jwQ-bomQdFJdCV5m9OP7D4isM4QZwKkX23bA/s1280/macron%20maduro.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="1280" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOczhXXXi3Xm4R9SihPyKwApf6i1EuFbLwXeOS7xNniYINpS17GNQMhMnDDFUxQ6C5Iv46qVW7GQ7fEMaP64rRHZPIcxJIRbzxF8V_vY67B45tVIpaj5fkNiTjBDon0u6KQUJqG6u34fxqn5jwQ-bomQdFJdCV5m9OP7D4isM4QZwKkX23bA/w200-h133/macron%20maduro.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>The big discussion today at least for those interested in Venezuela is the handshake and hallway chit chat that Maduro had with France's Macron yesterday at the COP 27 being held in Egypt. Besides the nauseous images, at least for yours truly, it is necessary to try to figure out what is really going on.<br /><p></p><p>First, what the hell was Maduro doing at Sharm El-Sheikh? He could go there because he did not risk to be detained. Hopefully his two airbus will not be forced to land in a country where there is no dictator like Egypt's Al Sisi. And yes, Maduro went with two big CO2 producing airplanes to Egypt whereas normal head of states go there in a single small plane or, god forbid, fly commercial. The COP 27 is set to deal with climate change and environment. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/08/climate/maduro-faults-capitalism-for-causing-climate-change-but-doesnt-mention-venezuelas-historic-role-in-oil.html" target="_blank">Maduro blamed capitalism in his speech</a> conveniently forgetting to mention that Venezuela has been a major producer of oil for capitalism, under Chavez in particular. He also forgot to mention the considerable environmental damage that the wrecked state oil company PDVSA has done under his tenure, in particular. And never mind the destruction of Venezuela's share of Amazonia due to savage gold prospection, directed by the Venezuelan army in particular.</p><p>But I digress, back to the handshake. It seems that there was a part of improvisation and part of manipulation in that fortuitous (?) encounter. From one of the videos I saw it seemed clear that the president of Guinea Bissau was sort of directing Macron towards Maduro. Guinea Bissau is one of the stopping points for drug trafficking between Venezuela and Europe. Just saying. So they met and talked for about one minute. Not to be accused of cheap anti Maduro I will give you the pro regime feed of Telesur:</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COP27?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COP27</a> | Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro and France's President Emmanuel Macron hold a dialogue at the 27th United Nations Climate Summit in Egypt. <a href="https://t.co/XLHKOODxMq">pic.twitter.com/XLHKOODxMq</a></p>— teleSUR English (@telesurenglish) <a href="https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/status/1589671706939228161?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>Now the question is why Macron was so "friendly". Before I go on let me reassure everyone reading this, mostly if there is by happenstance a chavista: the profound distaste of Macron (or almost any western leader) towards Maduro has not changed. In fact it is probably worse than ever now that Maduro is trying to gain leverage with the little bit of oil Venezuela could produce soon. Blackmail by any other name. Thus what we witnessed there is <i>real politik</i> at its worst, just like Biden visiting the journalist slayer meat processer Mohammed ben Salman (little good it did him but well...)</p><p>The Ukraine war happened; energy transition cannot be done in a day; Russia is to be punished; oil and gas must be found somewhere. Even though Venezuela is no condition to double its meager oil output in a year, it is still necessary to ingratiate yourself with the Venezuelan regime since the boycott of Russia will go on for as long as Putin will hold. And lo and behold, the French surely must know about<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/washington-plays-hardball-with-chevrons-venezuela-license-over-mexico-talks-2022-10-18/" target="_blank"> the maneuvering of Chevron to recoup its lost investment, </a>all this supported by the Biden administration willing to trade prisoners with Maduro. Macron had to run before France's oil giant Total is locked out of a possible reopening of Venezuela. By the way, Total has also a lot of investment to recoup in Venezuela.</p><p>So that explains why Macron allowed himself or was forced to be seen with Maduro. I will also remind folks that the Maduro regime was very abusive a year ago with the French embassy in Caracas, cutting off for weeks water and electricity. But that humiliation seems to have been forgotten. Now, about the consequences.</p><p><a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221108-macron-accused-of-u-turn-over-maduro-encounter" target="_blank">Macron has started getting flack from French press</a>, after years of saying that Maduro is a criminal (Maduro is still a criminal, a hand shake cannot cure this, it just dirties the other hand). Of course, ever the chavista hard core supporter Jean Luc Melenchon went <a href="https://twitter.com/JLMelenchon/status/1589683934593691648?s=20&t=y8VD7te9NVtnbjNqwpufGA" target="_blank">with his own gleeful tweet</a> saying that oil made people [Macron] polite. Macron just trashed one of the main political points against the extreme left Melenchon which was his inability to condemn human rights abuse in Venezuela.</p><p>But the bad press of Macron really does not register much in France. After all it did not make it in the nightly news that I eagerly awaited yesterday. Only today some comments, not favorable, started appearing though <a href="https://www.lopinion.fr/international/la-rencontre-impromptue-de-macron-avec-maduro" target="_blank">l'Opinion thinks that it was a trap set for Macron</a> who dealt with the best it could.. No, the worse of the whole fiasco is that Maduro got for almost free what he so craved for: recognition, some form of legitimation. That the French president shakes hands with a criminal undoes years of work of US presidents, British prime ministers, German chancellors, etc.</p><p>The fact of the matter is that Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed everything causing among other things a panic rush for oil survival [rather than telling the truth to the people about why we must suffer a cold winter at home this year: 1940 heroism is not fashionable anymore]. The big game is barely getting started and for all that we know if given cover we might even see Maduro abandon Putin! Chavismo is venal enough for that if the price is right. Then again Maduro and Putin may be laughing their heads off at Biden and Maduro. </p><p>To end this distasteful moment in a sourer note, there is another reason besides oil why Biden and Macron and soon others, are to talk with Maduro. This one has apparently won his fight with the Venezuelan opposition which is more divided than ever. They all coalesced to support Guaido against Maduro 3 years ago. From the start the regime through corruption and violence has managed to divide the opposition to the point that now it offers a sickening panorama to observers. Not only many spend more time attacking Guaido than Maduro, but the opposition looks unable to prepare for upcoming presidential elections that on paper it should win. It is simply dumbfounding seen from DC or Paris. </p><p>There may be a vote in a year and yet the opposition is unable to come up with a primary system to pick a unity candidate. We even have the sorry sight of more and more once upon a time believed strong opposition figures meekly calling for the end of sanctions against the higher ups in the regime. And Biden, Macron<i> et al.</i> should get cold this winter to help such a bunch of incompetents? I cannot bring myself to blame them.</p><p>____________________________</p><p><br /></p><p>added later, further hunting trophies for Maduro</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">And finally, here's exchange with <a href="https://twitter.com/antoniocostaps?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@antoniocostaps</a>.<br /><br />For all of of Maduro's charm offensive, he missed an opportunity to talk up Venezuelan oil when the Portuguese prime minister complained about high energy prices. <br /><br />"Visit whenever you want. We have lots of Portuguese," he says. <a href="https://t.co/xnTIPkMcRU">pic.twitter.com/xnTIPkMcRU</a></p>— Joshua Goodman (@APjoshgoodman) <a href="https://twitter.com/APjoshgoodman/status/1589996194419609605?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 8, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>The Portuguese Prime minister with Maduro telling him to visit "'cause we have a lot of Portuguese in Venezuela". Classy....<div><br /><div>And next with John Kerry who apparently forgot that his country has a 15million$ reward for bringing in Maduro. Though admittedly Kerry does not seem as cheerful as Macron or Costa seemed to have been.</div><div><br /></div><div>PS/ gets better, State announced that Maduro crashed a meeting where Kerry was participating. It seems more like in line for Maduro: the only people that agree to meet with him are those receiving a stipend in oil from Venezuela.</div><div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div></div>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-22008547827005143622022-11-07T17:04:00.000+01:002022-11-07T17:04:48.508+01:00Why Venezuela cannot be fixed<p> I was planning this second post long ago, following my crude description of why Venezuela remains messed up in spite of all the regime propaganda. But on occasion procrastination pays and I can start with recent items telling us what type of wondercrap Venezuela is.</p><p>First the new economic zones (ZEE). This is the latest at attracting foreign investors offering them all sorts of fiscal favors, and other favors that better remain nameless for the time being, but surely one would be by exempting those investors with having to follow labor laws. The delirium goes as far as including in these zones the Tortuga Island that will be transformed in an international tourists pole with airport and all. I happen to know La Tortuga. It is small, barren, waterless, no natural harbour worthy mentioning, etc, etc. Yes, it is beautifully wild with scuba diving offerings. But if you imagine Tortuga with ten resorts and golf courses, well, there go the corals. Nothing will remain, the island is too fragile for even a single resort. The idea behind that cockamamie plan is for laundering money away from scrutiny, creating at best a secluded retreat so that regime higher ups can go partying among themselves.</p><p>The other item was to give Iran gazillions acres of land so they can produce food to bring home. That the country side is devastated, that the Venezuelan agricultural worker has lost long ago its punch and skill, that we lack food enough that giving land to Iran, that is just crazy. Again, there is something else at play there. There is ALWAYS something else at play when chavismo announces big undoable plans. A secret base for Iran comes to mind.</p><p>And of course, we are now in November and no one is speaking about this anymore. </p><p>From this items you get already the gist of this blog entry: there are no conditions in Venezuela today to discuss any rebuilding plan. Assuming of course that within the regime here are people able to draw a realistic reconstruction plan. This is a short list of the main obstacles you will face to develop almost anything productive in Venezuela.</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>The general infrastructure is obsolete and in severe disrepair. Be it roads or electrical distribution, it does not work and the regime seems unable to fix it except in some points of utmost necessity for them, not for the populace. To build and run something is a major effort requiring that you bring in your own electricity generating system, for example.</li><li>The sanitary situation is simply nasty for foreigners. From run down and resource poor hospitals to the increasing scarcity of decent tap water, life is difficult. Very difficult.</li><li>The legal system is a joke. If you invest you never know when some government agency will knock at your door trying to see what they can extort from you. Or you can yourself get a single protector to whom you'll pay a regular stipend. The law is not your friend, it is your foe.</li><li>Which brings us to the security of the people working for you. As bad as ever. Your top management will need armored cars and perhaps even body guards.</li><li>So you say lets work with locals, they are used to it. What locals? 6 millions and counting have fled the country, including a cohort of skilled professionals. You are going to have trouble hiring competent mid management. As for lower ranks in your business hires, do not be too optimist. 20 years of chavismo have created a despondent worker, that thinks only about rights and that the bosses are tyrants. Then again enough are starving and desperate that you may manage to have them do all sorts of nasty jobs. Note: I am not saying that Venezuelan workers are bad, just saying that building a decent team is not going to be easy.</li><li>And of course considerations such as the environment, protection from messy neighbors and the like you can dream on.</li></ol><div>I'll stop there, enough said for to make my point: Venezuela cannot be fixed as long as chavismo remains in office. There is no means, no skill, no will for that. The country is drifting from an improvisation to another with the sole objective to control population and allow the caste of "revolutionaries" to live the high life in Caracas since too many of them would be arrested were they to leave the country. Oh yes, there are a thing or two you can do with that caste, a.k.a. boliburgueses, but you better be sure that you will have a very high return on your investment and no moral compass least you get taken for a ride and pockets emptied.</div><p></p><p><br /></p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-84808853449202578502022-07-05T21:44:00.000+02:002022-07-05T21:44:19.217+02:00Venezuela se arreglo. Not.<p> "Venezuela se arreglo", Venezuela is fixed up.</p><p>This is what the regime would like us to believe, but not they alone. There are also a few people that are tired to be opposition. There are also a few more in the US that are desperate to recover their lost funds. And some in the Biden administration that would love to have Venezuela supply what we do not want anymore from Russia.</p><p>Pipe dreams all. Nothing will improve significantly as long as those in place remain at Miraflores palace. I am not going to repeat my tired tirade on what we have there are not politicians but a narco mafia set. With criminals there is no negotiation possible unless you show at the same time determination to exert force AND offer a safe haven to some of the gang if they surrender power.</p><p>So, why is there an erroneous perception that Venezuela is improving? </p><p>The first impression comes from the country dollarized economy. This process is unfortunately on shaky grounds. First, the financial players remaining in Venezuela are in no position to secure a durable dollarization since there is no way to guarantee that $$ banknotes are legit, there are no coins, and too many transactions are opaque and mere money laundering. But the problem goes deeper: not only the regime has allowed dollarization without any agreement with the US, but the legal sort of framework upon which it is built can be pulled off easily, with the risk that all dollars in banking accounts could be blocked from one day to the next. In such a situation people are not going to invest long term. Period.</p><p>A second misleading perception is that Caracas, and a few rare spots outside of Caracas, have now <i>bodegones</i>, that is stores that import whatever they want with few if any custom taxes. Their preferred currency is of course the green back. <i>Bodegones </i>are just a gigantic laundering operation where illicit funds are used to buy cash stuff to resell in Venezuela creating thus a legal receipt. All this is made possible with the desperate situation of people that have some income or savings in dollars. In particular those who have relatives that fled the country and are now able to send a little bit of currency to their relatives left behind. Beyond the regime cynicism of washing its loot out of people it ruined, the casual observer will be mislead that shortages are over in Venezuela. They are over only for those who can dispose of at least 400 $ a month. And a rising amount at that.</p><p>A third misleading perception is that some services have improved and that restaurants in Eastern Caracas are full. The essential services, water, electricity, telephone, internet, garbage have not improved. But for those with dollars it is easier now to hire plumbers, electricians, private internet or even dig a well if they are on some sedimentary land with water under. As for the restaurants, keep in mind that international sanctions have induced a lot of those who became rich on looting the state to now be forced to stay in Venezuela. Of course, they are not going to suffer and will pay what it takes to enjoy their riches.</p><p>A fourth mirage is that suddenly we see positive GDP growth rates, relatively big even. But look, when you are in the gutter, managing to sit in that gutter looks good even if you are still soaked in garbage. As long as you do not have the strength to start climbing out, well, your head may be drying but you are still in the gutter. The Venezuelan economy is so downtrodden that to reach pre Chavez level will require many years of double digit growth rate.</p><p>I could go on but you get the picture. If you do not get it, in particular if you are a journo or a tankie visiting for a few days, I suggest you leave the comforts of Eastern Caracas and go spend a week end in a town less than 25,000 people and see the reality of Venezuelans descended to poverty level everywhere.</p><p>All that recovery is potemkinesque and too many people that should know better are falling for it, or are using it to get personal benefit. But recovery is NOT happening because the key element is missing: there is no significant production growth. Why not? Because nobody trusts the regime, a true scorpion on the back of the toad crossing the river: everybody knows that sooner or later the regime will strike back and like the scorpion it will sting the toad even if it means that killing the toad will drown the scorpion. Any legal tolerance can be easily reversed as there is no more institutions or justice left. </p><p>So, who is going to invest in Venezuela? Nobody serious, not even in the oil industry since it is run down and it would take a few years until it can produce enough to replace some of the Russian deficit. People that "invest" in Venezuela are either those that gamble on short term high yield ventures, or those who need to bring their money back to Venezuela before some tribunal seizes it. But these last ones are not investing in productive ventures, not yet. They are much more into laundering facilities such as <i>bodegones </i>of building brand new office buildings that remain empty but that they resell among themselves to get clean billing. These people are not used to work hard the way a normal entrepreneur works so investing in manufacturing or agricultural objectives is not what they want.</p><p>It is thus crystal clear, I hope, that there is no real recovery in Venezuela. As long as production of real goods does not start, it will not happen.</p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-1408284981023391762022-05-20T20:54:00.001+02:002022-05-20T20:54:52.594+02:00Alive and sort of well<p>Since some people seem not to have forgotten me I am writing this short entry to catch up with me, not Venezuela. That one is hopeless and I cannot find courage to write about it, except for a few tweets. Maybe inspiration will come back but I feel like cheating writing about Venezuela without being there. I am not one of these journos or tankies that spend a couple of weeks in Caracas and think they are entitled to write a book about Venezuela.</p><p>Since last time I wrote my remission failed. So new treatments, new side effects, etc. But now things are looking better with the new treatment approved a year or so ago. Had it been approved when I started three years ago I could even be back to Venezuela. But now it will be until fall for me to be allowed to go back, and for no more than a month. Though 2 weeks to the US soon is a nice prospect.</p><p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik8HUj7pnS2HQb-MjVJpdbLgyDL1BTdrNBmFpVlQkhrRcmAbQptx-mCdphKhKYEGYIWIG1S5oKBZtzKILgWz6aomVp6vRHzLbjaVMiFDY0H6Bnf0O7kYzsn3iJOLn4hWECtnp4CJJd01YdQ5kD1xS6IsEstyMt7uuqi3BnCBHcdGa0_Mx4DA/s1599/IMG-20220516-WA0018.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1599" data-original-width="777" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik8HUj7pnS2HQb-MjVJpdbLgyDL1BTdrNBmFpVlQkhrRcmAbQptx-mCdphKhKYEGYIWIG1S5oKBZtzKILgWz6aomVp6vRHzLbjaVMiFDY0H6Bnf0O7kYzsn3iJOLn4hWECtnp4CJJd01YdQ5kD1xS6IsEstyMt7uuqi3BnCBHcdGa0_Mx4DA/s320/IMG-20220516-WA0018.jpg" width="155" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">3 years of work and there you have <br />one of my rose trees</span></td></tr></tbody></table>I had major mood swings which did not help in my writing. I had finally conceived a way to put up together my blog in a book form and last October I had even two chapter drafted and partial drafts on other chapters. But by October I was in no mood for anything. Now, once my spring gardening is done I may just start writing again. Which means that at some point I may need an editor, the more so that in the last three years I have not practiced my English as I should have: I live in a small village, nobody to talk with in English, no book store carrying English books, and too many great books and magazines in French..... The vocabulary still is there but my grammar, never the best, is straining a bit. So if someone has editing experience, or knows someone with experience, please contact me. There will be no financial reward as I will self publish it on some Amazon like platform (advice is also welcome on that). I doubt there is much interest these days on discussing what Venezuela was under Chavez. Only tankies publish books, they are relentless in their propaganda, and more than likely funded. There is nobody to fund me, or people like me for that matter. At any rate, an editor will be fully credited and invited to write the foreword if s/he wants to. It would be a labor of love for forgotten Venezuela.</p><p>I never recovered from the loss of the S.O. And my Maine Coon died a month ago. I had invested a lot on him as it was a way to forget about my other issues. Its sudden death due to a congenital problem sort of stirred everything again. And yet today I found my way back here. So perhaps it was a needed schock? Or maybe it is a "climate change" very warm spring and my roses doing great that moved me?<br /></p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-52997489886172604792021-11-28T01:16:00.005+01:002021-11-28T01:16:44.059+01:00There was an election a week ago<p> After years of covering in detail Venezuelan elections I would be remiss not to mention last Sunday regional "elections" in Venezuela. Then again, as I put in a tweet, the same day Chilean elections seemed more important to follow. At least for me.</p><p>Once upon a time, say before 2015, one could still find enough information, enough semi reliable data to look for trends in Venezuelan voting results. I did not do too bad in my analysis predictions. But after the debacle of 2015 the regime made sure no vote meant anything anymore. I am not going to go into tiresome details. Remember, they are mostly pre electoral fraud, from happily banning candidates the regime dislikes to go all out and take over political parties. Amen of all the treachery in voter registration, excessive use of state means for chavista campaign, etc, etc. On election day you keep having all the unfair interventions from the army forcing people to vote, holding results, etc, etc.</p><p>All very commie banana republic.</p><p>Thus since 2015 I stopped wasting time in electoral analysis. The more so that in addition to the great heights in election treachery we have a large abstention movement and probably up to 4 million Venezuelan voters in exile, and thus with no option.</p><p>This being said, there are a few details worth commenting.</p><p>First, there was after many years the return of serious electoral observers. Namely proven and tested teams. There are only three sources of reliable electoral observation today: teams set up by the UN, the OAS or EU. Some countries I suppose would also do serious electoral observation, democratic countries like Japan or Canada. Maybe even the Carter Center. But that is all, and certainly not the countries that the regime invited previously for what is at best electoral tourism (Russia or Bolivia, for example).</p><p>Why did the regime accepted the European Union to send an observing team? This is the question, the more so that as expected the preliminary report under diplomatic language indicated that the vote of last Sunday was shit. I suppose that the regime having survived three years of sanctions and pressures and general exhaustion about Venezuela assumed that the world would recognize Maduro if this one held semi palatable elections with a selected few handouts to the opposition, preferably to the opposition that it has tried to build through payoffs. Well, if that was the reason, it did not work out.</p><p>Another reason is the need for the regime to reach some form of agreement with the US so that some sanctions are lifted. But the regime, to begin with, is incapable of seriousness when it is negotiation time. Whether the regime offers decent elections is not really an issue there, though it could help. But as the scorpion crossing the stream on the back of the toad, the regime cannot help itself and it will sabotage any opening, be it formal negotiations or semi fair elections.</p><p>This new PR failure behind us, what else can we rescue from last Sunday? As expected the regime won handily but not that great. Abstention was here and with a copious dose of opposition division it still lost on the total vote but carried all states but 3, while loosing a bunch of town halls. In fact that townhall fall back should be worrisome for the regime: for once the regime did better in big cities than in the country side towns where the opposition struck a few interesting wins. The provinces, apparently, are starting to be tired of being taken for granted.</p><p>Thus, in spite of all the treachery, the regime vote count keeps sliding down, fast enough that it cannot be hidden.</p><p>What else is worth noting? The opposition division. This one is basically 4 fold, believe it or not.</p><p>First, the 4 million + overseas. Where would those go were presidential elections carried tomorrow?</p><p>Second, the chronic abstention. Their number look good if you count in the 4 million abroad. But the fact of the matter is that some are starting to vote again. Why? Because the abstention promoters offer nothing in exchange, and people want solutions, not speeches on morality.</p><p>In third we have the pro Chavez opposition. Those are a set of individuals that came from the opposition but decided to try to reach political deals with the regime. All for naught of course, nobody is fooled. In last year parliamentary election the regime had to fudge some dubious vote count to make sure a handful of them would get elected! But they are very useful for the opposition in a way I am surprised people do not talk about. Last week they got more votes than what we could have expected. Me thinks that many chavistas voted for them as a protest vote against Maduro! And remember: when you have been attached for two decades to a political idea, the first vote against is the more difficult; it gets easier after. And those fake opposition parties are a good stepping stone for transitioning.</p><p>Finally we have the remains of the real opposition, those that did jail, were tortured, are in exile, whatever. They did not do too good, though they took 1/6 of townhalls and two states. That is, a little bit more than last time and in spite of abstention exile and divisions. For better or for worse, the so called G4 remains the true opposition and is still recognized as such after last Sunday show.</p><p>That is all. We'll see what's next.</p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-57030675067827971312021-05-14T01:03:00.001+02:002021-05-14T01:03:15.164+02:00No need to hold your breath on oppo/regime negotiations<p> A few days ago<a href="https://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2021/05/a-kleptocracy-starts-facing-reality.html"> I was writing about the regime apparent willingness to consider </a>that maybe, it was an hypothetical hypothesis that well, you know, we may talk to someone in Guaido's office to see if we could borrow the pencil sharpener.....</p><p>And then we got Guaido making a rather dramatic statement as to be willing to ask for lifting a few sanctions AFTER the regime shows positive concrete signs of serious negotiations with preliminary results. In a Tweeter thread I posted on that:</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">(1)This could be a major development. <a href="https://twitter.com/jguaido?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@jguaido</a> offers a global negotiation of measured give and take. In short: as the government allows more freedom, decent elections and international help free of regime control the Guaido opposition may ask for a progressive lift of sanctions <a href="https://t.co/qFCXuy0J7p">https://t.co/qFCXuy0J7p</a></p>— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) <a href="https://twitter.com/danielduquenal/status/1392287309651976212?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 12, 2021</a></blockquote><p>And then we have <a href="https://ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/politica/maduro-donde-quieran-y-cuando-quieran-nos-sentamos-a-dialogar/" target="_blank">Maduro accepting to negotiate through the EU and Norway intermediaries,</a> though adding a suitable set of insults towards Guaido. It is to be noted that according to Ultimas Noticias, a pro regime newspaper, he cited <a href="https://twitter.com/EFEnoticias/status/1392174610855178242?s=20">a misleading Tweet from EFE</a>, the Spanish press agency where it says that Guaido has proposed to eliminate sanctions. Guaido never said that, and at any case he would ask for a partial suspension of sanctions AFTER the regime makes concessions first. Then again EFE has not much credibility when reporting on Venezuela, only too often to burnish the image of the regime.</p><p>While we are discussing pro regime news outlets, <a href="https://ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/politica/rodriguez-el-que-quiere-dialogo-que-empiece-por-reconocer-que-se-equivoco/" target="_blank">Ultimas noticias writes that Jorge Rodriguez</a>, head of the "novel" national assembly will negotiate once the opposition has beaten its <i>mea culpa</i>. That is, he wants the opposition to acknowledge its mistakes and crimes, that there should be no amnesia __ and then we negotiate. One has to admire the ability of chavismo to commit all sorts of crimes, including those against humanity, and pretend that the real criminals are others. The chutzpah of these guys will never cease to surprise.</p><p>Lets pass on the fact that the regime is the one most interested into lifting sanctions since those ones are largely directed at people inside the regime hierarchy, where their ill acquired riches are often blocked on off shore accounts. They want the loot back....</p><p>Maduro and Rodriguez are contradicting each other? The regime has not made up its mind? Can it make up its mind?</p><p>Whatever it is we must understand that the only ones willing to do a serious negotiation are those in the opposition. This one has not only something to gain out of successful negotiations, but it also cares about the humanitarian crisis inside the country. Or at least it cares way more than the regime who is still unwilling to establish a coherent vaccination plan against Covid, for a burning example. Yes, that is right, Venezuela is now dead last in the number of vaccines applied. Any time soon a Venezuelan variant is about to appear!!!!!</p><p>For the regime on the other hand the lone objective of negotiation is to give in as little as possible so that its leadership gets to recover its funds and travel outside to spend them in "la vida alegre". Period.</p><p>Needless to say that I am not holding my breath whatsoever.</p> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-55997680692048504952021-05-06T00:05:00.000+02:002021-05-06T00:05:26.038+02:00A kleptocracy starts facing reality?<p>In the past few weeks a few strange signs have been happening for a regime that supposedly has all controls in hands. A regime that has made a point to sabotage any negotiation, to deny the existence of its political opposition, a regime ready to do anything for its survival has given timid signs of negotiating. Before you get your hopes up keep in mind that until now the small concessions made are easily reversible without much damage toward the inner base of the regime.</p><p>These first sign was related with Covid, in spite of the heartless approach of the regime towards its victims. Namely it was about agreements to obtain help for Covid testing and vaccines. This is still a work in progress but that the regime accepted to hold discrete talks with the opposition was already something.</p><p>Then a couple of days ago some US citizens, directors at Citgo, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-56953793">were released from their Caracas jail to be held in their homes</a>. These men were held as hostages against the Trump sanctions. But it did not work. Sanctions held.</p><p>And a greater surprise was the acknowledgement by the regime of some of its crimes. Selected few of course,<a href="https://www.elimpulso.com/2021/05/04/williams-davila-tarek-trata-de-eludir-competencias-de-la-cpi-haciendo-creer-que-en-venezuela-se-investigan-delitos/"> but those that had quite an echo outside of Venezuela</a>. Though these admissions were limited on context, just as "worthy of further examination". But that the regime accepts to even talk about these crimes is progress.</p><p>The biggest surprise may have been the agreement between the World Food Program and Venezuela. See, both Maduro and Guaido appeared with its chair, David Beasley. BOTH had their tweet pic. And thousand of Venezuelan children may soon receive lunch at school, hopefully lowering the dropout rate.</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Tremendous breakthrough in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Caracas?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Caracas</a>! <a href="https://twitter.com/WFP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@WFP</a> will soon establish operations to provide school meals to 1.5 million of the most vulnerable children. All parties agree that we must always show up together for the people and the children of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Venezuela?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Venezuela</a>. Let's get to work. <a href="https://t.co/LKuOpapgJj">pic.twitter.com/LKuOpapgJj</a></p>— David Beasley (@WFPChief) <a href="https://twitter.com/WFPChief/status/1384813716097703936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 21, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p><br /></p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="es">En mí reunión con el Director Ejecutivo del Programa Mundial de Alimentos, <a href="https://twitter.com/WFPChief?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@WFPChief</a>, le agradecí en nombre de los venezolanos el esfuerzo para que el <a href="https://twitter.com/WFP_es?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@WFP_es</a> pueda iniciar operaciones en el país y se pueda combatir el hambre que padecen millones de venezolanos. <a href="https://t.co/abtZPnDJJN">pic.twitter.com/abtZPnDJJN</a></p>— Juan Guaidó (@jguaido) <a href="https://twitter.com/jguaido/status/1384297547674521605?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 20, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p><br /></p><p>And then today's surprise, <a href="https://www.elnacional.com/venezuela/la-asamblea-nacional-de-2020-designo-a-los-nuevos-rectores-del-cne/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">a new electoral board CNE has been named </a>. Even though the regime could have had a 5 out of 5 names in it, it will be 3 chavistas and 2 opposition (well, we will see how much of an opposition they are). Clearly the regime is accepting to open up to elections that may have some meaning, though do not think that 2 out of 5 at the CNE is enough to ensure free and fair elections, far from it...</p><p>What gives? Rather than discussing the details of these developments let's look at the reasons why the regime is begrudgingly making marginal concessions. Certainly there is the Covid crisis, the bankrut country, its economy in shambles, the loss of territorial control in large swaths of the country, sanctions and what not to force the Maduro gang to the table. But the regime has shown once and again its disregard for the well being of the Venezuelan people. The kleptocracy <i>cum </i>drug traffickers are strictly on survival mode in order to retain power at all cost. </p><p>What gives in my opinion is Biden holding on the Trump line over China and doubling down on Putin. See, the regime has no notion on what state interests are: since Chavez all foreign policy was guided by the interests of Chavez. But in spite of all its bravado, Trump expressed a bipartisan policy of confronting Russia and China. In his first 100 days Biden has talked tough on China and even called Putin a killer, pushing further that bipartisan agreement. The table has been set, the rivalry between China and the US is now #1 priority, with Putin close behind.</p><p>How does this affect Venezuela? Look at a world map and figure out how far from Beijing and Moscow Caracas is. And how close are Syria and Crimea to Moscow and how close the Indian and Pacific Oceans to essential Chinese trade routes. Neither China nor Russia will go to the front to defend Venezuela. In a real confrontation these countries have much more important priorities than Venezuela, a bankrupt and corrupt country whose only interest today is to be used to goad the US. Any LatAm country on the Pacific is way more important to China than Venezuela, and Venezuela simply too expensive for Russia to support non stop. This one, by the way, turns out to be not such a great ally of Maduro according to the limited supply of Sputnik V vaccine it is sending. But I digress.</p><p>Thus it is quite possible that someone inside the regime has realized that now automatic support from Russia or China is not guaranteed. Even Iran and Turkey may not be such reliable friends anymore. Time to shift gears? Maybe it is time to be serious about discussing some sort of arrangement with the US?</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-84399486635295525592021-04-18T23:21:00.000+02:002021-04-18T23:21:05.265+02:00Epic lies, epic Covid in Venezuela<p>As weeks go by the situation in Venezuela gets worse. Reports that reach me are frightening.</p><p>A couple of weeks ago I wrote a long tweet thread in Spanish and with new updates I think it is a time to make it a text in english.</p><p><br /></p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="es">Me van a perdonar por esta serie de hilos en matrioshka sobre la incompetencia del régimen frente al Covid, pero cada día hay más barbaridades que agregar. <br />Hoy tenemos que reportar lo de <a href="https://twitter.com/DrodriguezVen?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DrodriguezVen</a> al rechazar la entrada de <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AstraZeneca?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AstraZeneca</a>, bordeando la locura asesina. <a href="https://t.co/DaYP9rqZke">https://t.co/DaYP9rqZke</a></p>— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) <a href="https://twitter.com/danielduquenal/status/1374890659677667330?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 25, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p></p><p>The thread was taken and retaken as a matryoshka doll as new stuff occurred; so I'll try to give the linear story below.</p><p>ONE YEAR AGO/ COVID LANDS</p><p>In what has probably been the only good measure taken against the Covid19 pandemia, the regime locked its border like no one else. I suppose that the regime knew<a href="http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-aka-covid-19-venezuelan.html" target="_blank"> it could not face the pandemia </a>and thus its only weapon was to lock up every body so as to have the lowest possible spread. And yet two despicable acts accompanied it. First, it was made an unnecessarily stringent lock up as there was a major gas shortage. Confinement made that shortage less obvious. But what was truly despicable was the regime talking of "imported" cases. In its daily notes the regime mentioned something like this "today we have detected 5 new cases, 4 of them being imported". The meta message was that Covid was sent to us from overseas, that the good Venezuelan people could possibly not have anything to do with it. In the first weeks the number of "imported" cases tended to be the highest of the two. Until eventually the charade had to stop: with airports closed for weeks how could you still talk of "imported cases"?</p><p>PANDEMIA CATCHES UP </p><p>There is well over a million Venezuelan refugees in Colombia. As Colombia was struck down with Covid, many considered coming back to Venezuela either because doors were shutting in Colombia or because they needed to go back to Venezuela to take care of those left behind: namely the grand parents and the grand kids they were taking care of while the adults tried their luck away. On their return at the border they were mercilessly put in concentration camps, with little food or hygiene to quarantine. And they were subjected to scorn for having left the homeland, and whatnot.</p><p>COVAX TIMES</p><p>The end of 2020 came with the promise of vaccines, in particular the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVAX" target="_blank">COVAX program</a> from the WHO to provide dosis at reasonable prices or even free to poor countries so they could at least vaccinate medical personnel; teachers, etc.... But there was a problem with that program: you had to be up to date on your WHO membership and that meant Venezuela would have to pay 11 million dollars late fees/dues dollars to have access. Chavismo is now a constant dead beat, and the WHO is no exception. Instead of sending a check (the regime was at the time talking of buying new army weaponry) the regime tried to use the excuse of the US sanctions as to why they could not pay. Then started the leitmotiv "we cannot vaccinate because the US will not let us do it". Which is of course total despicable bull shit.</p><p>CARVATIVIR: whitcraft?</p><p>In January <a href="http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2021/01/carvativir-as-symbol-of-covid-maduros.html" target="_blank">came the Carvativir fiasco. </a>As Covid cases kept growing the government was in need to show some initiative. What did they do? Another great business opportunity. Through two unknown guys, with no CV in the hard sciences needed for that, and a brand new company, Maduro announced on TV some mysterious drops bases on plant oils that prevented and cured Covid. The world was soon going to be told about the virtues of Carvativir! And yet here we are still awaiting for the data with bated breath.</p><p>OPPOSITION TRIES ITS BEST</p><p>The regime excuse for no money was countered by the opposition who offered to ask the US to unfreeze some assets so that vaccines could be bought. An initial agreement was reached with over 300,000 test kits that would be distributed to a list of centers. The kits arrived, the regime took over them, decided to distribute them wherever they liked and.... we never heard of them anymore. Why? Because the regime does not want to publish any real numbers of any medical sistation, and this has happened for many years already. More importantly, they took the tests to be used for the higher up of the regime. Privatized so to speak.<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-21/venezuela-s-access-to-vaccines-imperiled-by-seized-virus-tests" target="_blank"> Bloomberg reports that only 3,000 or so results were reported. </a>No word on the 300,000 other tests. This will have grave consequences on the willingness of donors in the future since trust is lost to unrefrained cronyism and absolute irresponsibility.</p><p>FOR THE REGIME ALL IS BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY</p><p>Before I go on it is important to understand what is going on with the regime on Covid matters</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Denial. Numbers can never be published. It is not happening to us. The US invented it.</li><li>All must be controlled by the regime. Thus any help from any donor has to be given to regime personnel to do as it pleases, namely distribution as pro regime propaganda.</li><li>The opposition is the great villain: any initiative0 or offer of collaboration by the opposition must be refused, sabotaged and what not.</li><li>And greed, so much greed. One recent example is that a new laboratory without any track record on medical analisis and less on Covid got the exclusive privilege to offer mandatory COVID PCR test to incoming travellers who must pay <b><i><u>60$ IN CASH</u></i></b> at arrival at the airport, regardless if they did a test before boarding, if they have been vaccinated, etc. 60 USD in cash, no credit card, no local currency, greenbacks or nothing.</li></ul><p></p><p>So it should not come as a surprise that we have the first reports of blackmarket vials of vaccines who can come only out of the doses already entering the country under strict regime control.</p><p>SPUTNIK V COMETH</p><p>The vaccine era finally arrived and started with the Russians testing their Sputnik vaccine on Venezuelans. Nothing has been published about the results, that I know of. But I also know first hand that some testing was seriously made from a scientist friend that received a dose. OK, so lets give the benefit of the doubt here. What is not to be doubted is that when the first lot of Sputnik came for actual vaccination the priorities were clearly announced by the regime: security personnel AND medical personnel, named in second. There was a brief scandal when we learned that the representatives of the illegal national assembly elected in December 2020 <a href="https://www.infobae.com/america/venezuela/2021/02/22/el-regimen-de-nicolas-maduro-comenzo-a-vacunar-a-diputados-chavistas-en-venezuela/" target="_blank">were among the first ones to be vaccinated</a>. Some were dumb enough to show their selfies of the moment until told to remove them from social media fast. But Maduro was dumb and crass enough to brag on TV that he did get his shots... Meanwhile doctors and nurses were left without vaccine, scavenging for soap and masks.</p><p>Ah! I was forgetting! <a href="https://talcualdigital.com/gobierno-vacuno-a-95-de-cooperantes-cubanos-pero-medicos-venezolanos-siguen-esperando/" target="_blank">95% of Cuban personnel in Venezuela is already vaccinated,</a> ahead of Venezuelan doctors. That is what happens to you when you accept to become a colony..... Note: vaccinated NOT by the alleged Cuban vaccines in development but by the regime purchased ones.</p><p>THE <i>HOI POLOI </i>STARTS GETTING SOME</p><p>Eventually the regime felt the need to vaccinate some besides the generals and Maduro's entourage. So we were treated to the first videos of elderly being called to get vaccinated. And propaganda it was......</p><p>In this thread I explained how 529 doses of Sputnik were distributed only to those who owned a "carnet de la patria". That is, if you are not chavista or have not surrendered to chavismo, you get no vaccine. Think about this for a minute.....</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">We all knew the vaccination of Venezuelan people would only happen as long as the regime could gain political advantage from it. This video from "journalist" <a href="https://twitter.com/YndiTorregrosa?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@YndiTorregrosa</a> shows you how far the regime will go for its propaganda and social control. <a href="https://t.co/oCq8qsHnL9">https://t.co/oCq8qsHnL9</a></p>— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) <a href="https://twitter.com/danielduquenal/status/1380799980097654787?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>ASTRA ZENECA BANNED</p><p>Russian and dubious Chinese vaccines are arriving dropwise. COVAX worked out and agreement between the regime and the opposition to bring in Astra Zeneca AND equipment for the logistic process in distributing the vaccines. Yes, that is right, the current situation of Venezuela requires that in addition of bringing in vaccines donors should also bring in refrigerators, power plants and what not since Venezuela cannot even guarantee enough electrical power. No Pfizer ever here. Well, Venezuela was going to receive over 10 million doses of Astra Zeneca vaccine, the easiest one to handle and that could cover at least the main cities, ALL medical and teaching personnel and the elderly. At the last minute Maduro used the excuse of the troubles with AstraZeneca to ban it outright and announce that it would be substituted by the Cuban ones, not even in Phase III testing, that is, improper to massive vaccination (amen on whether Cuba can produce enough of them).</p><p><a href="https://talcualdigital.com/an-de-guaido-fustiga-a-maduro-por-rechazar-vacunas-astrazeneca-ellos-ya-estan-vacunados/" rel="nofollow">The opposition was prompt in denouncing the regime</a> who prefers to see thousand more die of the virus than to accept that the opposition gets any credit in the fight against the pandemia.</p><p>THE SCARLETT LETTER</p><p>Meanwhile as vaccines are delayed, the pandemia advances. A creative chavista mayor decided to make it public and notorious to identify the homes of those who had a Covid case inside.... Words fail me on that one.......</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">One of the primitive mayors of my home state.<br />Any home in Sucre were a <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/covid?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#covid</a> case is reported will be plastered with a notice. Any attempt at removing will mean removal from the regime handouts programs, essential in impoverished Sucre county.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BringInYourInnerFascist?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BringInYourInnerFascist</a> <a href="https://t.co/PgizBWJjuC">https://t.co/PgizBWJjuC</a></p>— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) <a href="https://twitter.com/danielduquenal/status/1379782035431157761?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2021</a></blockquote><p><br /></p><p>IT IS FREE ONLY IN VENEZUELA</p><p>The lies of the regime are so linked that you need new ones daily to try to escape being exposed as a liar yesterday. The latest atrocious lie comes from Vice Delcy who tells on national TV that <a href="https://twitter.com/victoramaya/status/1379861731422437383?s=20" rel="nofollow">only Venezuela gives vaccines for free while infamous capitalist countries like the US demand payment.</a> Once again, in front of such blatant lies I remain speechless.... Though I can point out that it does not matter whether vaccines are free in Venezuela since there are none to be found.....</p><p> AND MORE DISASTERS</p><p>I need to end this entry. There is so much more to say. <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2021-04-08/el-conflicto-politico-atasca-la-vacunacion-contra-la-covid-19-en-venezuela.html" target="_blank">El Pais of Spain</a> has an excellent summary of recent problems which should tell the regime that the world is watching the crimes it is committing. Among those:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The private business organization FEDECAMARAS offered the regime to pay and bring in vaccines for its own workers. It even accepted a fee of 20% cut of these vaccines for the regime at its discretionary use. Yes, that is right, private enterprise would pay for the vaccines of its employees and their family and pay for an extra big chunk of vaccines for a regime that should be vaccinating all for free. The regime refused.</li><li>El Pais is worried about the sudden desperate search for oxygen in Venezuela. Social media is awash with people looking for oxygen tanks anywhere at any cost. That is a sure sigh that the Covid economic is now out of control in Venezuela. And the lack of oxygen supplies is simply impossible to solve. Even less by the regime.</li><li>El Pais also wonders how come that since Russia and China are supposedly close allies they are not sending as many vaccine doses as they are sending elsewhere.</li></ul><p></p><p>SO?</p><p>Time to stop for today. Just a few thoughts about the nastiness and why the regime is handling so badly the epidemic in Venezuela.</p><p>The first thing that strikes us is the secrecy about it all, the great length the regime takes to hide the tragedy. Not only numbers now come from independent medical observers, and well, well above those of the regime, but we are not told about the mass burials in unmarked graves, the near impossibility that crematorium have in processing all the demands they receive as Covid death are cremated, not buried. I know of two cases from people relatively close who had loved ones die and all the travails they had to endure to recover the bodies (and I will spare you the illness stories and how they ended up in public hospitals or the Poliedro which are now little more that thanatoriums). </p><p>The second striking thing is that the pandemia is all about politics. The regime absolute refusal to get help from the opposition and international donors is simply put genocidal. The regime pretends that all be given to them, all sanctions lifted, etc. while at the same time it demonstrates once and again its incompetence, its sectarism, the waste it would be if by chance donors would be foolish enough to cave in their demands. That is, give in or not to the regime, it is clear that the death toll will be similar.</p><p>Another damning thing is the extremely poor scientific and medical means of the regime. From inventing Carvativir to ban Astra Zeneca for problems irrelevant for the current Venezuelan health system YOU KNOW that those in charge of the pandemia have fucking no idea of what they are doing. Explanation? Those in charge are political hacks who would not know if an astrazeneca beast from an oxygen diving gear.</p><p>These are crimes against humanity that need to be documented for future use.</p><p><br /></p> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-89177850424680796962021-02-28T11:45:00.005+01:002021-02-28T11:45:34.513+01:00The sysiphean Venezuelan opposition <p> Now that we covered in last post the real problem in Venezuela, the economy, and that we have examined the situation of the opposition since December 2020, we can finally look at what can the Venezuelan opposition do. If you are busy and do not want to read it all, here is the executive summary: precious little.</p><p>What is that previous little, which as we shall see is already quite herculean?<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>The first thing is that the opposition needs to find a way to get some real unity of command. This has become an issue as more hints are coming from its major backers, USA and EU, whose patience may run thin. The message is that without a minimum of unity there is nothing they can do to help. And beware: the hidden message is that if the opposition is useless and helpless these countries might accept to try to find some sort of arrangement with Maduro.</p><p>How can such a reunification of the opposition be reached? The good news is that of the three branches of the opposition 2 are on their way to extinction. The collaborationist side of the opposition has managed in a short month to lose whatever credibility they may have enjoyed. Not only they got trounced in December 2020, but their representatives receiving this week the precious few Sputnik vaccines available BEFORE medical personnel and risk groups, has shown that they are just a small appendage of the regime. Unity can ignore them.</p><p>Another that counts little now is the radical wing that awaited for years for Trump to send the Marines. It did not happen and its main spokesperson, Maria Corina Machado, has grown rather silent these days. We cannot ignore here completely as the radical cohort can do some damage on media. Yet there is still a need to find a way to take into account MCM, though not under her terms, if she has any sense of reality left.</p><p>This leaves us with the third leg, the in/famous G4, the group of major parties that were the core of the opposition and who created Guaido. Why this experiment failed is not the point here, too late to even cry about it. Furthermore, the historic of its failures is not very helpful to define a new strategy in the current context. But the G4 is not the G4 anymore. Of the four parties, UNT, AD, PJ and VP one would be hard pressed to decide which one has still some real support across the country. I think that AD fares the best, which is not saying much. VP has gone from high to low with the failed antics of Leopoldo Lopez and the tied hands of Guaido. PJ? Does it still exist? UNT? Did it ever exist?</p><p>The problem of the G4 is not really which G is real. The problem of the G4 is that too many want to be the head honcho without the merits or the persuasion. There is a war still going on between Capriles and Lopez, with misplaced ambition by Rosales and Ramos Allup, not forgetting that Guaido may have his own plans now. Some other nereids would like very much to be on second position for the president's job. And certainly there is MCM lurking. As long as this cohort of characters do not find a way to check their individual ambitions and rally behind a single voice, no unity will be possible. </p><p>How can this happen? I suggest two things. One is for the international allies to push and go as far as designating, discreetly of course, one voice. Another one is to organize a primary of sorts. We do not need to name a leader outright but electing a representation of the opposition in some sort of opposition assembly could help. But all of these folks are too afraid to count themselves least they are revealed for the non entities that some have become.</p><p>There is also an obvious way: to name a leader that promises to accept not to run when elections finally come. Such a leader will of course have an inherent weakness: who would be the interest in following a leader with an expiration date? But on the other hand it would be a ready made leader for an eventual transition while the opposition sorts out how to select the candidate for the first post Chavez full presidential term.</p><p>The opposition has not failed at getting together behind a leader. It happened with Capriles in 2013. With Rosales 6 years earlier. With Guaido 2 years ago. But the opposition was also prompt in destroying these leaders once problems arose. It should try once again. Are there other options?</p><p>If we assume that the opposition can find a single leadership, or at least a responsive structure, it needs also to decide on a crucial thing: go for the regional elections. But that is matter for a full post, coming soon.</p><p><br /></p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-19991072280236190532021-02-23T15:07:00.003+01:002021-02-28T22:55:49.724+01:00The economy: road block to transition<p>Time is running out before Venezuela becomes a failed state. It is true that a failed/war-destroyed state can be rebuilt, but it takes a long time, it takes a powerful political center, it takes outside help, or at the very least no more meddling. Before writing about any possible political solution we need to discuss the distressed economy and how difficult it would be to restart it.<br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vo0l3J8_NM4/YC7ds2oRFsI/AAAAAAAAGZo/LM76cz3f_DoGXtmkAeEEztx43M0heASSACLcBGAsYHQ/s1280/ECONOMY6STUPID.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vo0l3J8_NM4/YC7ds2oRFsI/AAAAAAAAGZo/LM76cz3f_DoGXtmkAeEEztx43M0heASSACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/ECONOMY6STUPID.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>When Maduro was elected in 2013 he could have taken a few token measures that would have avoided the extent of the crisis today. He did not, and took even additional wrong steps. Then this mismanagement was magnified through a nasty political crisis and recently US sanctions.<p></p><p>The root of the economical crisis comes way back. Even before Chavez. In a way we could say that Chavez invented no new deleterious practice: he just magnified them to unsuspected levels. It is too long to review that descent into economical hell, books have already been written about it. Let's just look at today's situation. <span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>The very first problem is the legal and security limbo of Venezuela. Today any entrepreneur, any company that has not yet closed its door must face a whole set of issues. Large expenses just to ensure the security at workplace and transportation/distribution of goods. Legal fees galore to face the repressive nature of the fiscal system. The ever present risk of expropriation without compensation. The constant harassment from extorsion. And more. Just on that aspect we can truly talk of a fight for survival, and thus thinking about expansion requires a serious leap of faith.</p><p>The main day to day concern is the destroyed infrastructure. There is no reliable supply of electricity and water. There is considerable difficulty in finding spare parts, motor fuel, etc. Ruined roads make transportation difficult. How can you program a production plan when you do not whether you will have light all day? Many business have had to invest heavily on their own generation plant, on large water tanks. Lots of places had to resort to dig water wells if they detected, luckily, decent ground water. These are forced investments that are not used to improve training and tools.</p><p>And what about your people? Emigration and recession have created havoc with human resources. It is difficult today to retain your workers when your company cannot manage significant resources in a country devoured by hyperinflation and production problems. And to hire new people is even more difficult: even if you can offer a decent dollarized paycheck there is simply precious few available candidates at the level you need.</p><p>And what about business environment? Some point out at the reactivation of commerce in Caracas and a very few other spots as a sure sign that the worst is behind and that recovery is on the way. Far from it!! The "recovery" we see and apparently not understood by many is an economy of money laundering. It is very simple: a lot of the corrupt officials and associates of the regime have stolen hundreds of millions of dollars (1). The problem is that an increasing number of them are being tracked abroad and have had quite significant sums blocked. So, before financial police take away more they are bringing some back to Venezuela and invest them in three ways. One is using government contact to obtain difficult to get goods at low prices, that is, material to build luxury business buildings in selected areas, office buildings that remain empty. The other one is to buy business on difficulty for cheap, or more recently signing contracts with the regime for its bankrupt expropriations which amount to a hidden privatization. </p><p>The third way is the most obvious: the economy of "bodegon" and notorious parties. These unfortunate souls forced to live in impoverished Venezuela have decided to live well and not suffer the consequences of their previous depredation. So, they pick up adequate fronts and open fancy grocery stores, <i>bodegones</i>, which at exorbitant prices for the <i>hoi polloi </i>cater to their luxury tastes. Quite clearly we could think that brand new fancy buildings at Las Mercedes o La Castellana, a few fancy shops carrying champagne on their shelves give the impression of prosperity. The more so that their employees get paid with a few dollars and that Venezuelans in exile who can send dollars to help their relatives. So yes, there is a circulation of dollars that stimulates some the economy, but it is a Potemkin village.</p><p>All the new "dollarized" economy is a mirage. What you see are dollars getting inside Venezuela and used to import goods or build stuff with no productive value. Basically the business that are needed to produce food, medicine, industrial products are not producing much more than two years ago, and have neither the incentive nor the means to relaunch their business. These laundered investments are not going where they should go.</p><p>The root of the problem is that the regime and its cronies have had control of currency exchange since 2003. Over the years they have built their fortune over the looting of the country. And they do not want to relinquish that control. They also do not have any inkling of what an entrepreneur does. This is at the root of the chavista regime, and goes a long way to explain how their greed promoted crime and drug trafficking. Their looting going unpunished certainly helped them into believing that other crimes would also go unpunished. </p><p>To start a political transition also requires a change in the economic practices of the country, a return to a normal model. Yet, this would mean for the regime to loosen up the nook around the private sector neck, which can only be done with a political relaxation. The regime has too many vested interests, too many compromissions. Is it possible to reopen separately the economy and freedom?</p><p><br /></p><p>_____________________________________________________</p><p>1) The amounts stolen will probably be never calculated exactly since sometimes waste and corruption can get mixed up. Yet estimates of 400 billion have been advanced. </p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-83435763643953351492021-02-03T20:57:00.001+01:002021-02-03T20:57:05.795+01:00The end of the Venezuelan opposition, as we knew it<p>It is time to write that dreaded post, the funeral eulogy of the Venezuelan opposition as we knew it. Something else will come someday for sure but at this point in my life I wonder whether I should care, to tell you the truth.</p><p>Going through the catalogue of all of its failures is rather useless: the political conditions of the country have so changed that there are few lessons we could gain from spreading the blame around. Instead let's focus on the losers (there are no winners, before you ask).<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>The first loser, the obvious one for me anyway, is Maria Corina Machado. Her stand was simple, based on her "moral high ground" it implied to forbid any negotiation with the regime. Maybe she was right, but the only result of that was the creation of a cohort of fanatics that devastated social media with various forms of character assassination. Her position was untenable since it relied exclusively on some form of foreign intervention. But Trump is gone; the Marines did not come, nor will they come in the foreseeable future. Now what for her and her cohort? There are signs that she may want to talk again to some other people inside the opposition but as we say in Venezuela <i>chivo que se devuelve se desnuca</i> (loosely: a goat that turns her head back will break her neck). Whatever it is, the damage she did is there to stay.</p><p>The next loser, in my view, is<i> la mesita</i>, that hodgepodge of political nullities who believed that breaking away from the opposition to negotiate with the regime would bring dividends (1). Nothing of the sort happened. In the end, for all their self-humiliation they got only a few seats in the nNA (2), and some of those on dubious ways since the regime needs to keep some useful fools on board. In short, if anyone followed them it was a scant few disgusted chavistas with Maduro and some opposition that do not agree with the real majority one but not necessarily with <i>la mesita</i>. Unfortunately they are not learning their lesson and instead they are getting closer to the regime! An example is from <a href="https://talcualdigital.com/avanzada-progresista-dice-al-parlamento-europeo-que-la-an-de-guaido-ya-expiro/" target="_blank">Avanzada Progresista who berated the European Parliament decision to support Guaido</a>. Maybe, but the language used is to sink Guaido. No word on their dismal score on December 2020 in spite of all of their compromissions...</p><p>Then we reach Guaido, the G4, Capriles and Leopoldo. Quite a snake pit that became over the years since every one had its own agenda and the only thing they could agree on was what not to do. About what to do, we heard little. Let's go by parts.</p><p>Guaido was the unexpected hero. He did what he could but was hampered along by his inexperience and the blockade of the G4. He did his best but never managed to be his own man and now I feel sorry for him as they are going to make him the scapegoat. These days, from social media you even read oppo crazies that hate him more than Maduro and would love this one to send Guaido to jail......</p><p>The G4 was the group of the 4 major opposition parties. They decided to lead the opposition actions because one of the obvious problems of previous attempts was the atomization of this one (which caused the tinies to form <i>la mesita</i>, offended that they were not considered equal to, say, AD). But it did not work out anyway as each of the 4 only approved actions that did not hurt their interests. The result was missed opportunities, contradictory positions, etc.... but the main fault for me is that they never quite knew what to do when they scored a point, but worse, they never had a plan B for when the point was lost.</p><p>Capriles and Lopez can be discussed together because their main responsibility was an ego war. Such an ego pushed Capriles to start negotiating last year with the regime just to pull back and lose whatever credibility he had left. Lopez ego trip was assuming that since one of his men, Guaido, was put into preeminence that gave him license to run the opposition. It did not and paralyzed it further.</p><p>There are more that can be finger pointed, in particular the abstention strategy which had served its purpose long ago and was NEVER accompanied by a "what next?" once people stayed at home. </p><p>I am really pessimistic. I am afraid the game is over. The regime has all what it needs to survive. And the ruthlessness to do what it takes. Five years of social crisis have only resulted in more repression, more control, and a blanket bombing of the opposition leadership. What could at this point push people to riot and overthrow the regime? What will bring the army to a breaking point? Meanwhile the international view seems unsurprisingly to move away from the opposition current leadership. For example Guaido is being dropped by the EU who sees him now just as one of the opposition leaders. The US keep recognizing him because, well, Biden has bigger fish to fry right now. That the "Lima group" recognizes X or Y is irrelevant as the group itself has become irrelevant. If the opposition does not pull its act together soon the other countries will decide to deal on their own directly with the regime, demanding stability more than anything else; though with the regime they'll never get it.</p><p>It it all over? Maybe not quite but that will be for a future text.</p><p>______________________________</p><p>1) <i>la mesita</i> is a reunion of tiny parties and failed political agendas that decided they were not properly heard inside the opposition and went their own way. To naught. They pretended to retake on negotiations at <i>la mesa de negociacion</i>, hence <i>mesita</i>, an appellation that enrages them but verified every single day.</p><p>2) nNA = <i>novel </i>National Assembly, for that thing <i>elected </i>on December 6 2020 that serves as parliament rubber stamp for the regime.</p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-4250022501529881082021-01-30T17:04:00.005+01:002021-01-30T17:04:56.674+01:00Chavismo reshifting roles<p> Now that we have a <i>novel </i>National Assembly, who is speaking for chavismo? (1)</p><p>One "surprise" is that Jorge Rodriguez is the new chair of the nNA. Well, not that much of a surprise since he was sent to run while he was occupying high positions inside the chavista nomenklatura. <a href="https://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/search?q=jorge+rodriguez" target="_blank">He has been mentioned enough in this blog</a> so I will not review his extended life serving chavismo. From an alleged impartial electoral umpire in the early 2000 elections he ended up as Vice President of Chavez in the many positions he occupied. He, and his sister currently the vice president (2), are now the main operators of Maduro, sort of representing the civilian side of chavismo.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>Does that mean J.R. has his own power base, as many observers think? Not at all for me. That JR is put forward means that Maduro has more power than before and uses JR to further his agenda. For all their skills the evil Rodriguez siblings have no real political base they can call their own. They are the civilian image of the regime, those that are sent for negotiations and the like where you need people that know how to behave, holding a minimum of general education (3). </p><p>Yet JR appointment meant Diosdado Cabello was apparently relegated to majority whip when all expected him to recover the chair he lost in 2015. Does it mean Diosdado star is fading? Probably some but not that much. First, he retains influence within the army. Second he is the manager of the chavista party, PSUV. Third, he represents quite a sector of nouveau riche originating from corruption. And fourth, if drug trafficking has direct influence in the power structure, he would be one of their voices. Dismissing Cabello is way too early. A regime in search of oxygen cannot promote Cabello who has opposed and sabotaged any velleity of negotiation. </p><p>When we ponder the fate of Diosdado we cannot forget that chavismo has a leninist, communist party structure and management. Those who survived or grew in it for the past 20 years know that and obey without fault. Yes, there are leaks. Yes there is infighting. But they are kept at a minimum and when election time comes the candidates are decided way up and all rally behind them. This structure is also necessary for survival when you have become a gang of looting politicians and narcotraffickers. The dreaded domino effect if one side were to fall guarantees that all sides will keep parcels of power as long as in the end all agree and support the front formula. Thus we can even consider that the "demotion" to majority whip is in fact a tactical move as Diosdado is an unpresentable leader for a regime in need of some type of facelift for future necessary negotiations. Diosdado cannot go and meet US or EU delegations, JR can, still.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VTH7LhAHAQU/YBQlzKG9ktI/AAAAAAAAGYs/6NlVCBqPNRQJ14SimiqfKIWRBgfZHhHtgCPcBGAYYCw/s960/jorgitofedecamaras.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="960" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VTH7LhAHAQU/YBQlzKG9ktI/AAAAAAAAGYs/6NlVCBqPNRQJ14SimiqfKIWRBgfZHhHtgCPcBGAYYCw/s320/jorgitofedecamaras.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>We can thus understand one of the latest moves of the regime<a href="https://talcualdigital.com/fedecamaras-y-la-an-de-maduro-uniran-esfuerzos-para-vacunacion-contra-covid-19/" target="_blank"> sending JR to meet Fedecamaras and ask them for help to deal with the Covid19</a> crisis. We get pictures that we would have never expected: the regime going to the seat of the private enterprise organization for talks. For one reason JR was not in the forefront of the disastrous political conditions used to manage the economy; he may have supported the massive expropriations for example but it was not on his visiting card. Certainly Fedecamaras, the culprit of all evils in chavista lore, was more embarrassed than pleased by that visit. But since private enterprise is on survival mode if the regime is willing to offer some oxygen, why not "welcome" them... yet the regime cannot help but be itself and kill on one hand what it seems to offer on the other. Of that meeting a result was to create yet another subcommission which includes "nicolasito", the son of Maduro himself. Of his educational background we know little, of his economic skills less, but we already know quite a lot about his shady financial deals.</p><p>We do not know whether the regime is preparing in <i>nicolasito </i>the successor of Maduro. It should have been from the Chavez family following a certain East Asian country script; but the Chavez family is quietly enjoying their loot share and has been exceedingly discreet. We thus have a modified set of actors. </p><p>Maduro is the front man, tightly monitored by his wife, Cilia Flores. Over time his own political base within the party must have grown some, but it certainly is not very large: the PSUV can make and read polls and Maduro is nearly universally rejected. But Maduro is there, the direct proconsul of Cuba, the front man, the image of regime "stability". That is his real share of power.</p><p>A slice of Maduro power is the Rodriguez siblings. They are convenient operators, used by any faction of the regime, as needed. Their power originates in that they are the only civilians that have an idea on how the outside world function even if their judgement is clouded by ideology and resentment.</p><p>Diosdado Cabello has been losing ground. First inside the army as the people he helped and promoted are going into retirement by law. Nobody knows for sure how influent he is in the new classes. But Diosdado has real following inside chavismo for his vulgar but popular bluntness. He is the only one who still has on TV a popular show that destroys anything it decides to destroy. He also used to be the representative of sorts of the "derecha endogena", endogenous right wing, which was the people that gained immense wealth out of corruption, against the commie ideals of the bolivarian revolution. It seems that part of that support has moved towards Maduro or the army as in an era of less cash the army is less inclined to share.</p><p>The army has managed to retain Padrino way past his retirement age. He seems to have become the inamovible defense minister, a position that is held on a rotation basis among army higher officers on an annual basis. He has been there for years now to everyone's surprise. But how strong is his power share. Is he really the one holding the army together? Does it control it as we know that the feared Cuban surveillance skills know whatever happens in side and snuff fast any remote possibility of conspiracy? Or is he just the face of the army now become a shady business center? Whatever it is the army through its repressive branches are the ones who still make possible the regime and thus must be counted as an extended support for Maduro. Not Maduro's power as he must respond to the army, but as what justifies his hold on office.</p><p>But there is another power that does not have a visible face: rampant crime, militia and <i>colectivos</i>. Crime has become one of the pillars of the regime for the single reason of symbiosis. The regime has lost the will and capacity to control crime. Consequently crime runs rampant in some areas where the regime has given up any pretense of control. We thus have now mini states were gang organizations are the true rulers. Nobody enters without reasons, even less the armed forces though on occasion we do have major warfare between state security and gangs. But the gangs that collaborate politically with the regime and do not go too far in their criminal activities remain safe in their strongholds. Feudalism of the XXI century.... </p><p><i>Colectivos </i>are an elaborated example of these new structures, powerful enough to operate free rein, but not enough to impose their will outside of their areas of competence, so to speak. <a href="https://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2014/11/a-brief-history-of-colectivos.html" target="_blank">I already wrote a post on them in 2014</a>. Since then they have prospered further and became actual parcels of power for secondary regime characters like Bernal who for the time being is behind Diosdado. But his influence/control on some <i>colectivos </i>make him someone who on his own right cannot be ignored.</p><p>We can end this with Iris Varela who has been sent from years as minister of jails to second vice president of the nNA. She is famous for her selfies with notorious criminals and for not solving the overcrowding and other jail problems. But she is also suspected of having deliberately allowed for the transformation of certain jails in yet another kind of feudal grants. Some jails are famous for organizing all sorts of traffick, from kidnapping and ransom to open road hijacks of food trucks for resale, sometimes at the very door of the jail. Why has she been transferred is perhaps the lone surprise in leadership moves. Has the gang system reached such might tha they decided to have their own seat at the big table? Did she get tired? Fired? Is she the radical caution for a regime going back to wild capitalism and negotiations?</p><p>There has been no face lift of chavismo, just some slight shifts which are expected to fool future negotiators. Yet, there is a sense that something may be going on. After the purges of the old chavista guard maybe new purges are in the horizon.</p><p>________________________________________</p><p>1) I use the <i>novel </i>adjective for National Assembly because it is illegitimate and it is not recognized by democratic countrie;s and yet there we are.</p><p>2) Remember that vice president in Venezuela is by appointment, with heavy rotation and as such is just the principal minister.</p><p>3) The Rodriguez siblings are the children of a leftist guerrilla that was killed in detention. They consider that justice was never fully done and that became their life obsession, to avenge their father. They have been on revenge mode ever since and nothing ever will satisfy them. Yet among chavismo they are among the few, he at least as a psychiatrist, who have some reasonable level of cultural education. I personally consider him as a psychopath and she as a sociopath. And I have talked about them with shrinks reaching the same diagnostic....</p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-10258801278552775362021-01-29T16:25:00.007+01:002021-01-29T16:32:35.886+01:00Carvativir as the symbol of Covid Maduro's failure<p>It is now common knowledge that Venezuela's dealings with Covid19 have been a failure. The best that can be said is that the regime has bet secretly on herd immunity because, well, there is nothing else the regime can do.</p><p>And yet in the midst of this abject failure to preserve the health of Venezuelans, the regime manages to outdo itself in its <i>abjectness.</i> Now Maduro on TV has revealed himself a snake oil promoter. Rarely I have been as angry at the regime than after seeing the clip below.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Well, against his incapacity to deal with COVID and much less to vaccinate the country <a href="https://twitter.com/NicolasMaduro?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NicolasMaduro</a> has decided to sell snake oil. With "carvativir" he claims that 10 drops under your tongue every 4 hours will kill 100% of the coronavirus.<br />Let's delve: <a href="https://t.co/0CpLkxz0Eb">https://t.co/0CpLkxz0Eb</a> <a href="https://t.co/Rms6HYcN8v">pic.twitter.com/Rms6HYcN8v</a></p>— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) <a href="https://twitter.com/danielduquenal/status/1353638545576124418?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 25, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<p>What is behind all of that charade?<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>Maduro is promoting what we have seen in so many denial and conspiracy theories about Covid: an unproven herbal concoction as the miracle cure for Covid. Ten drops under your tongue, every 4 hours. <i>Voilà</i>. And to promote the miraculous aspect he throws in Jose Gregorio Hernandez, a reluctantly future saint of the Catholic Church. We do not know what is inside, how it has been tested, if it can be produced in large amounts, if it has secondary effect, nothing. But if you read the loving replies of chavistas to Maduro's announcement tweet you will read an act of faith, a disdain for science and even a belief that science must bend to ideology. We are back to Stalin and Lyssenko. Even the chosen name is a manipulation: Carvativir, to link it to sophisticated antiviral agents that took years to create.</p><p>Maduro has nothing else to offer. Public hospitals cannot deal with the situation. They do not even have enough running water to allow for the basic anti covid hygiene practices. Medical personnel has been so lacking of protection that<a href="https://talcualdigital.com/diputado-olivares-asegura-que-mas-de-dos-mil-personas-han-fallecido-por-covid-19/" target="_blank"> its unofficial count of deceased has amply passed the 300 mark</a> . Statistics are, of course, unreliable: the opposition claims that the death toll is at the very least double what the regime says. So unreliable statistics are that some international world counting sites do not include Venezuelan numbers, or worse show Venezuela as a most successful country against Covid.</p><p>There is, as could be expected, no serious plan on vaccines. And even less of a belief that the regime could carry it successfully. A mere simple PAHO Covid test offer upon which, a true miracle this one, the regime and the opposition had agreed upon<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-21/venezuela-s-access-to-vaccines-imperiled-by-seized-virus-tests" target="_blank"> was promptly rerouted by the regime on arrival.</a> And was not carried properly anyway with unbelievable delays! Imagine if vaccines at -70°C had to be managed, even just for Caracas! The regime has tried to use the excuse of Covid to recover some of the funds frozen because of sanctions. But the opposition has refused to hand them to the regime on account of the regime proven incompetence and corruption. However the opposition accepts that the funds be used by international independent agencies which the regime refuses point blank: any thing for <i>el pueblo</i> must come from the hands of the regime. Period.</p><p>At any rate, using Pfizer or Moderna Covid vaccines is not possible in Venezuela under the current logistic nightmare, starting with frequent power outages. Barely Caracas could be considered for those vaccines, preferably Moderna at -20°C. The only thing we have heard from the regime is for an eventual deal for the Russian SputnikV. In fact Maduro blithely offered Venezuelans last year as guinea pigs for their phase III studies of which, of course, we know nothing of the results. Will Maduro pay for enough vaccines? Does he want to, really? Even at this typing I do not know whether the chinese vaccines are considered...... However I am sure the evil capitalist Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca are ruled out, except perhaps secretly for the corrupt elite.</p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VTH7LhAHAQU/YBQlzKG9ktI/AAAAAAAAGYo/tjbuvOaBhPk6SUI4skmNYLgJlwO70n8aACLcBGAsYHQ/s960/jorgitofedecamaras.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="960" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VTH7LhAHAQU/YBQlzKG9ktI/AAAAAAAAGYo/tjbuvOaBhPk6SUI4skmNYLgJlwO70n8aACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/jorgitofedecamaras.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A picture I never expected!</td></tr></tbody></table>The disarray must be such that Jorge Rodriguez, the chair of the novel National Assembly has done the unthinkable: <a href="https://talcualdigital.com/fedecamaras-y-la-an-de-maduro-uniran-esfuerzos-para-vacunacion-contra-covid-19/" target="_blank">he held a meeting with the private sector association</a>, FEDECAMARAS, to see in which ways the private sector could help on vaccination campaigns. The socialist regime held a meeting with the reviled private sector to seek help, you read it right. Even reading the news I have trouble believing it.... Though the real intentions can easily be seen: in exchange of who knows what the regime wants Fedecamaras to caution the take over of frozen funds away from the opposition: whatever Fedecamaras does it will have to be on the supervision of the health ministry, normal in a normal country but irresponsible in Venezuela.<br /><p></p><p>Meanwhile, if you are in Venezuela take your ten drops and pray to Jose Gregorio.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-8619430593349196602021-01-20T20:12:00.000+01:002021-01-20T20:12:07.943+01:00Biden's administration will have to face Maduro's regime<p> As I type Biden is about to be sworn in and of course I am planning to watch it if French TV broadcasts it. One of the reasons that motivates me is that in the first hearings for his cabinet positions his nominees without a fault are quite willing to continue some of Trump's policies. Sure, the means and ways will differ here and there but on important questions such as the enmity of China or the Middle East moves, nothing much will change. And best of all Secretary of state nominee Blinken has said in his hearing that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-state-venezuela-idUSKBN29O2PE" target="_blank">the incoming administration will recognize the interim government of Guaido </a>and the remains of the National Assembly elected in 2015, considered the last democratically elected branch of government.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>Nobody should be surprised: there is such a thing in serious countries as the interests of the State and those interests are bipartisan. The policy against an invasive and unfair China concerns both Democrats and Republicans. A good application example is the departing recognition by Pompeo of Uyghur veiled genocide in China is prime exemple. China will be upset and will try to retaliate but the incoming Biden people will put the blame on Pompeo while not changing the decision. And Pompeo will be fine with that because it serves the supreme interests of the country. No matter what a crazy supporter of Trump he may have been, enough voices within the GOP have been telling him to do so. Same thing for the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital. The democrats did not like it but Biden will leave the embassy in Jerusalem. No need to pick a fight over that, a done deed putting to rest a thorny issue as keeping the embassy in Tel Aviv did not help in solving the conflict.</p><p>Same thing with Venezuela. European Union failed to clearly endorse the continuing Guaido expired mandate while recognizing him as opposition leader. But Europe has no "state" interests in Venezuela the way the US has. Best to start by recognizing the status quo, recognize Guaido and keep at the very least current sanctions. Then, once in office, once all dossiers are examined by the new administration then it will be time to rebuild an anti Maduro coalition and modify what needs to be modified.</p><p>These overriding "state interests" is something absolutely lost for chavismo. Long ago they have ditched professional career diplomats. Venezuelan foreign policy has become a mere promotion of the bolivarian fraud and Chavez ego. And in recent years Venezuela's foreign policy, so to speak, is on survival mode, selling state interests to whomever protects best its nomenklatura from international pursuits. The paradox is that the dictatorships that support Maduro, be they Russia or China, do have an acute sense of their own state interests. For them Venezuela is a useful foil against the US objectives.</p><p>For the US Venezuela is much more than a nuisance. Drug trafficking goes a lot through Venezuela. The regime protects and sponsors terrorist organizations like the Colombian FARC and ELN. Its influence on all sorts of anti system groups across Latin America is notorious. The tremendous corruption inside of Venezuela spilling over the continent through massive money laundering schemes. Worst or all is how blithely Venezuela's regime sends millions of migrants across Latin America straining countries with narrow possibilities to deal with such a refugee wave. In short, Venezuela is a destabilizing factor over the whole continental expanse and that is not in the interests of the US of A.</p><p>The regime does not understand that. Jorge Rodriguez, a main operator for Maduro and the new head of the overwhelming chavista novel assembly, gave his first interview as chair. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-caracas-latin-america-diplomacy-dd7de047b619aa0a714a38ae02a4834c" target="_blank">In it he offers to the US in exchange for dropping sanctions to free a handful of US citizen prisoners and reopening business for US oil companies. </a>Blackmail/cash-promises for forgetting all of the nefarious actions from Venezuela. The regime presents itself as the victim, with no need for corrective actions. And worse, they think they are about to fool the Biden administration. They do, trust me. </p><p>But times have changed. The US went through the Trump years and too many taboos have been broken. The Biden team is more likely to act through broad coalitions, perhaps with weaker measures but enforced ones. But it will act without the kowtowing of the Obama years. A good starting point is to force other LatAm countries to take real actions against the regime. One of the reason Trump sanctions did not have the desired effect is that too many LatAm countries have been unwilling to take action. Even Bolsonaro has not gone much further than break relations and big words. We need these countries to actively pursue those inside that made deals with the operators of the Venezuelan regime. A little bit of blackmail from the US could help along.</p><p>And there is of course the most important and needed confrontation: what to do against Cuba which is the organizer of the regime. Without forgetting the enablers in Russia and China. Trump's people never faced Russia over Venezuela. Will Biden do so? Obama got conned by Cuba. Will Biden stumble over that same stone again?</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-51296842985497412182021-01-11T15:22:00.008+01:002021-01-11T15:27:21.005+01:00Same old, same old for chavismo?<p> So, chavo/madurismo has all in its hands (1). No Venezuelan government in history had so many levers of power in its hands. All the formal state institutions are now controlled by the regime except a handful of state houses and town halls. But those are restricted on their means, heavily supervised and thus almost insignificant in their potential actions. What makes this one more of a dictatorship than any past one is the complete control on press and media, and the economic control that no government in Venezuela ever had. That these controls broke the country is another matter, though it happened because of these controls.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>However for the regime the conquest is not complete enough and the novel assembly has put as it priority to quell what is left. The priority is not solving the awful economic and health crisis, the priority is to close internet media, harass NGO, go after the remainder of the opposition leadership not yet in jail or exiled.<a href="http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-no-posts.html" rel="nofollow"> It already started</a> and more is in store. For example barely seated as third chair of the assembly Iris Varela has repeated her old promise: seize the properties of those that are not in Venezuela anymore. Now she may have the means to execute that promise.</p><p>Totalitarian regimes cannot help themselves. It is inherent to them to discriminate, sow discord, repress, invent ever new enemies, etc, etc. Castrist originated chavismo cannot escape that condition. Even when all opposition will be erased, even when no private property will be left, save for those of members of the regime something new will come up, most likely inside purges Moscow trial like. Some of this are already taking places against those who abandoned ship, treated more harshly than opposition hostages.</p><p>That democratic international opinion is against the regime they do not care anymore. That there is an investigation is going at the Hague international court against some of the regime higher up is of little concern. That the support of Cuba, Russia and Iran comes at the price of accepted slavery is just what you need to pay to remain in office. The regime is inured to this, they got used to this, they may even toast to this.</p><p>Yet......</p><p>As a narco kleptocracy the dictatorship heroes want to enjoy the loot they gathered, preferably not in Venezuela. This, they can do no more. In some cases not even their families. Also, it cannot fail to escape them, at least the military in charge of repression that more and more repression is needed as hunger is now the daily routine for a majority of Venezuelans. Never mind the Covid situation here where the regime has basically given up, without plans for a massive vaccination program.</p><p>That is the double Achilles's heel of the regime, the worsening situation and the jail feeling inside Venezuela for the elite. How to solve that?</p><p>The solution would be extremely simple: hold free and fair elections and all sanctions will be lifted, confidence and investors will return, travel to party on will resume. But that means chavismo will have to give up large amounts of power. This is THE NO-NO for most of the chavista elite. But the reality is there and needs to be dealt with since repression may not be enough. Now that the regime has no more enemies able to challenge it in the near future the temptation to settle publicly internal scores will rise. The chavista factions notable for their leninist unity against the opposition may find it more difficult to keep that unity. In particular for the army who will be called increasingly to help in repression. The Soviet Union had developed an institutionality <i>ad hoc</i>. A poor institutionality, certainly, but one where all had their place: KGB, Red army, sovietes, Party, universities. Chavismo has been unable to build anything. Its model is more like Cuba who long ago gave up the idea of pretending to be a state...... But if Cuba so far as avoided the fate of "failed state" this may not be true anymore for Venezuela.</p><p>And this is the regime problem: It dominates but it does not rule. Nothing functions anymore in Venezuela. The government is unable to offer a minimum of public services. It does not even pretend to do something about hyperinflation. Nothing. The regime seems to have abdicated its state functions. All is improvisation. (2) </p><p>It remains to be seen how long chavismo will tolerate its own dysfunction now that there is no real enemy in front..</p><p>_________________________________</p><p>1) I think that we should start making a distinction between today's chavismo and what it was, say, in the early past decade. Not that one was better than the other: they were equally awful in their intention, but the results are harvested by Maduro. This has turned the regime way uglier, crossed new lines.</p><p>2) This decomposition of the state, need it be recalled, predates the first international sanctions. It has been years that there has been electrical power outages, problems in water supplies, insecurity, etc.... Sanctions did not help of course, but the regime is not shy at announcing certain type of unnecessary purchases or sending humanitarian help for propaganda purposes.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-41159667482586408172021-01-09T15:00:00.003+01:002021-01-09T15:00:56.772+01:00The NO posts<p>I was planning to write more negative entries to detail the consequences of the dreadful process that culminated on the December 6 vote. But it would require a few more and I want to move on some more interesting and pressing matters.</p><p>These entries did lay down the conditions that will rule now the immediate future. And boy, do they already rule it! We had this first week of January <a href="http://zaperoqueando.blogspot.com/2021/01/contra-la-prensa-libre.html" target="_blank">the closing of internet media</a> (the open air media and written press have been closed or censored long ago). The novel assembly <a href="http://zaperoqueando.blogspot.com/2021/01/fingir-que-postulan.html" target="_blank">seated the chairpersons</a> from hell and hurried to take as first measure create a commission <a href="http://zaperoqueando.blogspot.com/2021/01/carcel-para-los-opositores.html" target="_blank">to prosecute the ex representatives of the outgoing assembly</a>. (1) This commission, to add insult to injury, will be presided by <a href="https://twitter.com/JoseBritoVe" target="_blank">Jose Brito</a>, a corrupt traitor from the Primero Justicia party. He was booted out and went over officially to chavismo who through judicial fiat gave him the direction of Primero Justicia. Now from his new position he will be able to take revenge, and at the same time spare chavismo the technical responsibility of yet a new totalitarian act. Totalitarian regimes of the XX century should be envious to see how easy it is for chavismo to recruit folks for their dirty work. (2)<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>The <b>no posts</b> include <i><a href="https://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2020/12/not-victory.html" target="_blank">Not a Victory</a></i> where I tried to explain why the regime did not score a victory last December. Then the absurdity of the numbers collected by the regime and the opposition, <i><a href="https://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2020/12/no-results-just-data.html" target="_blank">just data</a></i>. Which of course lead to<a href="https://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2020/12/no-negotiation-never.html" target="_blank"> the unrealistic hopes for future negotiations, perhaps ever</a>. In short these elections were <i><a href="https://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2020/12/not-at-cross-roads.html" target="_blank">not a crossroad</a></i> and indicate <a href="https://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2021/01/venezuela-solution-2021.html" target="_blank"><i>the lack of options </i></a>for the opposition.</p><p>Now the bleakness of its all exposed it remains to write about what may happen, which are the triggers left.</p><p>---------------------</p><p>PS: Thanks to <a href="https://twitter.com/Naky" rel="nofollow">Naky Soto</a> for aggregating so well <a href="http://zaperoqueando.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">material used today</a>. In Spanish unfortunately for those English only readers. I am just putting it in short and English.</p><p>________________________________________________</p><p>1) "novel" is the word I shall use for the time being, for lack of better option. The assembly seated January 5 is not only illegal but extremely skewed toward chavismo. They even pushed the cynicism far enough to seat <a href="https://twitter.com/TimoteoZambrano" target="_blank">Timoteo Zambrano</a> through "novel" vote counting so as to give him the foreign affairs chair. He failed while negotiating for the opposition and was basically fired for being to cozy and accommodating to the regime and infamous Rodriguez Zapatero. This was during the oppo/regime "dialogue" in Dominican Republic. He never recovered from being sitesided for the Barbados round and now is on a revenge binge like Jose Brito discussed above. Thus my choice of "novel" for now until its actions suggest a better adjective.</p><p>2)</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="es">Al <a href="https://twitter.com/JoseBritoVe?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JoseBritoVe</a> le salio bien la jugada. Por corrupto y traidor lo botaron de la oposición. El chavismo le regala ahora la comisión para que pueda vengarse. Asi funcionan los sistemas totalitarios, promoviendo la degradación moral, empoderando lacras.<a href="https://t.co/XFe4fbXRK0">https://t.co/XFe4fbXRK0</a></p>— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) <a href="https://twitter.com/danielduquenal/status/1347618434033590280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 8, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-22428181671799431362021-01-04T15:12:00.000+01:002021-01-04T15:12:33.250+01:00No way ahead<p> On January 5 the opposition loses its last legal toe. The constitutional mandate of 5 years for the National Assembly elected in 2015 expires and as of that day all the opposition representatives will lose their seat and immunity. Not that it makes much difference, the list of those already in exile or in jail is quite extensive. The difference now is that a ruthless and vengeful regime will have no need to make up charges to arrest those still free.</p><p>The regime by itself has stopped worrying about its legality long ago. Maduro and those elected last December have not been recognized by democratic countries for quite a while. They are used to it. But at least the opposition in its quixotic quest could pretend to represent the lone legal and democratic institution left. Now in Venezuela everyone is out of legality. Quite a feat it is.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>What road ahead for the Venezuelan opposition? None really. In the immediate they came up with some scheme that I did not understand well. The Venezuelan assemblies out of normal sessions seated a "<i>comision delegada</i>" which is a small group of representatives that can exert some activities during recess approving minor details so the country keeps running smoothly until normal session resume. This time around a commission is established with Guaido as its head for a non specified time unil free elections are held. The excuse is to extend the mandate of the 2015 assembly since no elections could be held. The legality is dubious. Its potential actions problematic. The repression certain as it can be presented as open rebellion. But to boot, the unanimity was not reached inside the opposition.... The immediate reason for this scheme, me thinks, is to allow a certain number of representatives time to hide or leave the country before January 5 while a handful of representatives sacrifice themselves. </p><p>This done, what next? Let's start by putting on the blame of the opposition failure to unseat Maduro. The opposition is now divided in three groups. One is the radicals whose better known figure is the very disappointing Maria Corina Machado. Their sole strategy was to wait for a foreign intervention to get rid of Maduro. Indeed, that may be the lone solution but meanwhile that restrictive attitude sabotaged the efforts from the other groups. At the bitter end Trump is leaving office and the Marines never came. We are waiting for a <i>mea culpa</i> from the radicals. I am not holding my breath.</p><p>At the other end there is the caved-in group. Those ones decided to placate the regime and negotiated at disadvantage. The theory went that it was better to go to elections knowing that the results would be bad but good enough to be a base to rebuild a more competitive opposition. Kind of taming the chavista beast. As such they cautioned the election last December. Yet, they received nothing for their compromission: they got a handful of seats, two of their leaders seated through a post electoral break of rules (read: they did not have the votes, Maduro gave them what was missing). They have nothing to show for their betrayal of the opposition except for whatever funds they received for said betrayal. Never mind that they probably lost the little support of those who followed them. And of course, as happened with previous betrayals, they will be dumped when needed. People never learn.</p><p>The third group was Guaido. Certainly they made mistakes but at least they tried things. If that group was and still is the very large majority within the opposition it was formed by the G4, the 4 largest parties. Thus internal rivalries made it very difficult to decide actions and do what it took to make them work. In the end all hopes were impossibly put on Guaido who now will be the sacrificial lamb, guilty of all and more.</p><p>In front of a ruthless dictatorship certainly it was difficult to find a way without breaking a few dishes. Yet, for whatever little was achieved, a lot of people paid a heavy price. However would have it worked better had Guaido and the G4 leaders marched to Miraflores, bare chested waiting for the first bullet? The thing is whatever they tried a section of the opposition would sabotage it. Negotiate? Maria Corina Machado would curse them until the seventh generation. Boycott the election? The cave-in accuse them of forgetting about the suffering of the people and blaming the G4 for international sanctions. As if <i>el pueblo</i> voting for these unsavory collaborators would have solved anything......</p><p>So? What is next?</p><p>Nobody has an idea. The only thing we know is that with a pandemic the regime preferred to use for political purposes rather than a show of caring for the masses, 2021 looks like being the worst year in our history since the devastating civil wars of the XIX century. The only thing the opposition can do now is to learn from its mistakes, tune down failed egos, try to meet on basic points and hold to them. Only that way can credibility be maintained and reconstruction of some political apparatus started.</p><p>That is all. The rest is not in our hands. Really you may say? Yes I reply.</p><p>The international community has much to be blamed for, just as I blamed the opposition above. They have been told long ago. They have seen the stream of migrations perturbing in many cases their economy and welfare system. Now credible reports of Venezuelan mafias following are coming up. Surprised? Think about the Russian mafia spreading out with the collapse of the USSR.</p><p>Sanctions were necessary but not enough. The Lima group was the wimpiest of all. They let US, Canada and Europe take sanctions but themselves took very few of those. It did not help them against their critics: the left is on the rise again in those LatAm countries who are the ones suffering most of the consequences of the millions of Venezuelans streaming out. In fact the group of Lima has been a huge disappointment, a collection of empty declarations.</p><p>Europe did better. At least they took some sanctions and is actively trying to track down money launderers. But like the Group of Lima, they hid behind declarations and wishy washy wishful wishes of free elections to solve the crisis.</p><p>The problem with Europe and LatAm is that they are afraid to call a spade, a spade. Venezuela is a narco-military dictatorship. That is, a criminal organization and it should be dealt with as such. At least the Trump administration used the right words on that. It took big sanctions. It spoke loudly and menacingly. Yet in the end it did not dare to confront who it really needed to confront on Venezuela: its supporters, Russia, Turkey and China (Iran it did but that is another story). (1)</p><p>So now we are paradoxically left with a blank page and the incoming Biden administration has to fill it up, bring all the other players in. Does it has a plan, a strategy? During Obama they failed on Venezuela and Cuba, I have little hope..... </p><p>Whatever is decided the bottom line is an either/or/and the below observations:</p><p>- a military action. Does not need to be a full bodied one, but at least it must include actions such as blockade of harbours, expulsion of chavistas hidden outside, etc.....</p><p>- a way out for at least 100 top chavistas and their families. A place of safe exile with enough of the stolen money for their <i>dolce vita </i>and that <i>of </i>their children and grand children.</p><p>____________________________________</p><p>1) no, I have not forgotten Cuba. But with the wreckage of the Venezuelan economy Cuba has passed from colonial master status to mercenaries of the other three to keep Maduro in office while they play out their geostrategic games against the US.</p><p><br /></p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-65929187320152942672021-01-03T20:30:00.005+01:002021-01-03T20:30:43.969+01:00A new year<p>Wishing readers the best possible year 2021. It is going tough this time around. And if you are in Venezuela just making it through the year will be quite the achievement. Not that it will be much easier for those of us forced to leave the country but at least most of us will have access to food and running water 24/24.</p><p>If you are not Venezuelan and read this blog, do something good this year: help an exiled Venezuelan.</p><p>Love to all.</p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-28657652065513112312020-12-27T19:55:00.008+01:002021-01-03T20:26:09.737+01:00Defeated, and so far away from Ithaka<p>These last few months have been hard on the soul. You may have noticed if you were a regular reader: writing was scarce. Perhaps it was my subconscious dealing with the reality of exile. I had written that discussing Venezuela from afar was somewhat a hypocrite exercice. It is up to journalists to visit Venezuela for a few days and then bomb us back with supposedly knowledgeable articles from their safe desks at home. But a blogger who made his name writing <i>in situ</i>, from some Podunk like place in Venezuela?</p><p>There was something else at work, the grief of having lost home and memories. I suppose that grieving in a span of 6 months the loss of my life partner, the loss of my father and the loss of my health distracted me from grieving the loss of my country. Oh! I knew Venezuela was lost for a while, but as long as I was there it did not hit home the way it does now that I have left and start realizing there may be no return.</p><p>Two recent articles, unfortunately in Spanish and too long to translate, helped in my efforts to come to terms with my new reality.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>The first one is from <a href="https://twitter.com/miguelsantos12">Miguel Angel Santos</a>, <i><a href="https://prodavinci.com/el-largo-regreso-de-los-venezolanos-a-itaca/?2" target="_blank">El largo regreso de los venezolanos a Ítaca</a></i>, the long return of Venezuelans to Ithaca , inspired from the famous Cavafy poem (1).</p><p>In a way Santos does not say anything new, nothing that has not been said or suggested here and there. But he puts it together under the raw light of objective observation, of the raw comparison of the Venezuelan exile with other painful ones. We do not pass the test. As a nation of exiles we are failing the test, we are not accepting that we have left the country and may have chosen to live in a future of "next year in Jerusalem". And it will not. Even if a quarter of us returns, at most according to historical examples, it will not remotely be the Venezuela we left. And I add, it may have no connection with our memories.</p><p>There are things we need to do. We need to accept the fact that our exile may never end. We need to properly grieve and move on. We need to reconstruct our lives around what we may be able to build wherever it is we are. And we also must develop our community of exiles. This not only to feel better about ourselves and to forge new acceptable shared memories, but also to help those that are yet to come to fit in faster with less suffering than what we burdened ourselves with.</p><p>The second article was from <a href="https://twitter.com/MilagrosSocorro">Milagros Socorro</a> who I often <a href="https://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/search/label/Milagros%20Socorro" target="_blank">referred to and even translated</a> in this blog. This time it is an interview in the great site <a href="https://prodavinci.com/">ProDaVinci</a> where what is left of Venezuelan intelligentsia tries its pen in some times memorable articles. The title is <a href="https://prodavinci.com/milagros-socorro-no-creo-en-las-sociedades-menores-de-edad/?platform=hootsuite"><i>Milagros Socorro: “No creo en las sociedades menores de edad”</i></a> which can loosely be translated as "I do not believe in minor societies" as in too young to be responsible. Certainly the Venezuelan society is responsible for what happened to it.</p><p>In this interview on her latest book Milagros speaks of her creativity and sources on what makes her a great writer of short stories (2). What caught my attention for the subject at hand was this paragraph translated next (3): </p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><i>"Are you telling me that other things should be told? Hugo, I am a loser. I am defeated. For 20 years — twenty years — I have been doing journalism non-stop, non-stop. I have done many interviews, chronicles, opinion articles, grand reporting, profiles and for years I have been writing, trying to prevent things from happening. All that journalism, all that strenuous effort, sometimes even a bit ridiculous, was to keep things from happening, because journalists, really informed, knew the trap that was being prepared for the country. There was no way not to see it. The experts, in each of their specialties, told us that with these actions by Chávez and Chavismo, the country was going to its destruction. If you fire, if you boot, 20,000 PDVSA technicians, you are beheading the oil industry. You are not only doing it to lose all its heritage, but to be able to control and destroy it. There was a will to destroy the entire country. We were seeing it, documenting it, interviewing it. So, I feel like a defeated person. All that work was useless. It was of no use".</i></span></p><p>This is a rather stunning confession and I suspect Socorro says it as an invocation to help rebuild her life. She is after all now exiled, like Santos. Perhaps she suffers more than Santos or myself: there are so many writers and composers that went silent once unable to nourish their souls with the air of their land.</p><p>Like Milagros, all the effort to write this huge blog since 2002 has been for naught. All the exposure I got has been wasted. Nobody will even remember that in 2002-2006 we were only a very few writing in English to tell the truth, to announce what was coming. Few will admit that we were among the first to be righteous. It does no good to remember these days when my voice counted a tiny bit. Like Milagros I have been defeated.</p><p>Any exile is a defeat. Any exile is a challenge. Our grief shall be carried forever but our lives, rebuild we must how unpalatable that may be.</p><p>I have to grieve that all is lost. I am afraid that were I to return my memories may have nowhere to latch on to revive a glimpse of my past. What I will see then is a foreign country where outside what memories I have kept in my old rooms will feel as foreign to me as anywhere else I may be living in this world. Grief is necessary to live so I'll have the strength if I ever return to Ithaka were no Penelope awaits.</p><p>Ithaka gave you the marvelous journey.</p><p>Without her, you would not have set out.</p><p>She has nothing left to give you now.</p><p>And if you find her poor, Ithaka won't have fooled you.</p><p>Wise as you will have become, so full of experience,</p><p>you will have understood by then what these Ithakas mean.</p><p><br /></p><p>___________________________________________________________</p><p>1) If you want the whole poem, a translation is <a href="https://www.greeka.com/ionian/ithaca/about/poem/" target="_blank">here </a></p><p>2) </p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="es">Mi libro, en Amazon<a href="https://t.co/FaxsUeHEXn">https://t.co/FaxsUeHEXn</a></p>— Milagros Socorro (@MilagrosSocorro) <a href="https://twitter.com/MilagrosSocorro/status/1336240197634297858?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2020</a></blockquote><p><br /></p><p>3) The original Spanish paragraph</p><p><i>¿Me dices que otras cosas deben contarse? Hugo, yo soy una derrotada. Yo estoy derrotada. A lo largo de 20 años —veinte años— he estado haciendo periodismo sin parar, sin parar. He hecho muchas entrevistas, crónicas, artículos de opinión, gran reportaje, perfil y durante años he estado escribiendo, tratando de que las cosas no ocurrieran. Todo ese periodismo. Todo ese esfuerzo, denodado, a veces hasta un poco ridículo, era para que no ocurrieran las cosas, porque los periodistas, realmente informados, sabíamos la celada que se le estaba preparando al país. No había manera de no verlo. Los expertos, en cada una de sus especialidades, nos decían que con esas acciones de Chávez y el chavismo, el país iba a su destrucción. Si despides, si botas, a 20.000 técnicos de PDVSA, tú estás descabezando a la industria petrolera. No sólo lo estás haciendo para perder todo su patrimonio, sino para poderla controlar y destruirla. Hubo una voluntad de destruir todo el país. Nosotros lo fuimos viendo, documentando, entrevistando. Entonces, yo me siento una persona derrotada. Todo ese trabajo fue inútil. No sirvió para nada. </i></p><p> </p> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-33365569219376206962020-12-26T20:02:00.001+01:002020-12-26T20:02:26.975+01:00The 2020 Xmas post<p> It is late, like everything in this year.</p><p>But I hope that in spite of all those reading this will have the best possible Xmas they could have.</p><p>Here in exile a Tweet posted a few weeks ago will have to do.</p><p dir="ltr" lang="es">Despues de 3 años de duelos, enfermedad y exilio es hora de recomponer un poquito la vida. La Navidad más nunca será normal pero haremos algo de ella.<br />Empezaremos con algo que no podía hacer en Venezuela, un arbolito en matero que sembraré en enero. <a href="https://t.co/qbpjtdeUue">pic.twitter.com/qbpjtdeUue</a></p>— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) <a href="https://twitter.com/danielduquenal/status/1335755365309243394?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 7, 2020</a> <div><br /></div><div><script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
Although it does not look too happy I think it may survive. We'll plant it on New Year's day. Let's take it as a good omen if it grows.</div>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-125761284199055832020-12-18T18:56:00.000+01:002020-12-18T18:56:09.584+01:00No negotiation, never<p> So Maduro/regime/Cuba have everything: total control of the executive, legislative and judiciary; decisive support of the army; they count the votes; no private sector able to finance an opposition; decided support of all sorts of tyrants/strong men here and there; the acquiescent silence of a few; semi free propaganda from lefties a.k.a tankies. Just a few democracies against and a few damning reports on human rights violations. But who cares: any insubordination at home will be quickly snuffed now that new repressive laws will be easily enacted.</p><p>But there is one thing that the regime has that is a problem: international sanctions. I am not talking about the sanctions against PDVSA which is seen as diminishing the income on corruption schemes (the income for <i>el pueblo</i> is sill enough to fudge elections, and if they want more they can emigrate least they die from Covid before_1_&_2_). The sanctions that the regime fears are those that are an hindrance to enjoy the loot in glamorous parts of the world. That is, it is becoming more difficult to hide the money or buy nice manses in the US or Spain. Never mind the risk of being arrested in doing so.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>And now add the topping that the International Criminal Court at The Hague has decided that preliminary examination considers that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-court/icc-prosecutor-sees-reasonable-basis-to-believe-venezuela-committed-crimes-against-humanity-idUSKBN28O2ZS" target="_blank">crimes against humanity have been committed under Maduro </a>in Venezuela. That is, Maduro and a bunch of other chavistas are now officially examined at the ICC for a possible (more than likely I would say) trial at The Hague.</p><p>What can a poor dictator do? At home no major problem. Investigated and condemned dictators have survived for years in power. There is nothing that a little repression and a little money cannot solve, as long as you do not leave the country. But if you and your cronies want to travel it is another matter: just hope that you do not need to do an emergency landing in an ICC signatory country.</p><p>Thus the "scoop" today. </p><p><br /></p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">It was to be expected. Changing tack makes sense since Trump failed in unseating Maduro. But at least Biden people understand that reversal is impossible.<br />Yet it is perhaps the last opportunity for Maduro to exit without a bloodbath.<a href="https://t.co/h4KqOWnB3G">https://t.co/h4KqOWnB3G</a></p>— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) <a href="https://twitter.com/danielduquenal/status/1339910730993332229?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>Certainly Maduro must feel confident enough now that he has all in hand. Though his denial on the economy will play a trick on him someday, even Bechar and Mugabe fell eventually. He is probably willing to allow the opposition to gain a few town halls, maybe even a half dozen states, all under due monitoring (3). But replaying presidential and assembly election you may forget about it. And certainly not on fair terms, though some fairer conditions could be allowed at local levels, but not everywhere (4).</p><p>In exchange of a few cosmetic offerings, while retaining full judicial control, the most important of them all, the regime merely asks for suspension of sanctions and the implied freedom to keep drug trafficking, money laundering <i>et al</i>.</p><p>I, for one, doubt very much that Biden or the EU will accept that. Venezuela has become an hemispheric security issue. But Trump has failed, Maduro is more solidly in Miraflores than when Trump was elected (apparently solid, you know). The only winner of the Trump bravado on Venezuela is Trump himself: he won Florida. Cubans and Venezuelans in Florida or at home are worse off than when Obama left (5).</p><p>Let's not forget two things. First, the track record of negotiations with the regime has been an abject failure. Even when not against the opposition. For the regime, as with any totalitarian system, a "negotiation" is strictly a tool for gaining time even if some concessions must be made. On the first opportunity everything is taken back, and offensive resumed. And the second thing is that Maduro is propped up by the experience of Iran and Cuba on dodging sanctions and postponing deadlines. </p><p>It is thus quite certain that some conversation/negotiation will take place once Biden is sworn in. Not only it is unavoidable but they are to be supported. Was I thus misleading the reader with this post title? No. The point is that the word negotiation mean different things for a totalitarian state and a democrat. As long as democrats in the US and EU do not understand that and comprehend what that truly means, no serious negotiation will be possible or conclusive. </p><p>____________________________________</p>
1) just read the latest on how the regime is unable to perform even routine Covid tests....
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Fuel shortages are adding to Venezuela's inability to properly test people for Covid-19 despite receiving new supplies. <br /><br />To date, just 1,600 of 340,000 antigen tests supplied by PAHO have been deployed, resulting in 400 positive cases. <a href="https://t.co/g1s8wFiCLI">https://t.co/g1s8wFiCLI</a> By <a href="https://twitter.com/NicolleYapur?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NicolleYapur</a></p>— Álex Vásquez S (@AlexVasquezS) <a href="https://twitter.com/AlexVasquezS/status/1339663541155016704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 17, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
2) Maduro has announced that <a href="https://www.cubasi.cu/es/noticia/maduro-la-vacuna-rusa-sputnik-v-es-la-mas-segura-del-mundo" target="_blank">he is throwing his lot behind the Russian vaccine</a>. The problem, is that <a href="https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2020/12/17/putin-todavia-no-se-vacuna-con-sputnik-v-pero-afirma-que-la-vacunacion-masiva-es-necesaria-para-poner-fin-a-la-pandemia/" target="_blank">Putin did not get it</a> because he said that it is not approved for those more than 60; that problems in production are reported; and last but not least, they are not bothering introducing the dossier of Sputnik 5 to the FDA or comparable agencies in Canada, the EU or Britain (nor the Chinese, for that matter, that I know of at this writing). I find that suspicious and I, for one, will wait for Pfizer/Moderna.<div><br /></div><div>3) one the tasks set for the new Assembly is to vote the necessary laws to establish the "communal state". A long story but suffice to say that a large part of local resources and programs will be controlled by communes whose leaders are elected through public vote and vetted by the regime. In short, even if the opposition were to elect a governor or mayor, there is little this one will be able to do. Nevermind the social control these communes will mean. </div><div><br /></div><div>4) last local elections, for example, the state of Bolivar was won by the opposition. But the electoral board annulled a few votes in a center and that was enough to steal the state. Trump supporters would appreciate, except that this was for real. The reason? Bolivar is strategic as a refuge for allied Colombian guerrillas and for the reckless and ecology disaster of gold extraction.</div><div><br /></div><div>5) Obama's policies on Cuba and Venezuela have been an equally grievous failure as Trump's. One can only hope that the incoming team will learn from BOTH administrations. Let's not forget that on the campaign trail both Harris and Biden have had strong words against the Venezuelan regime.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-66013395035801035702020-12-13T18:50:00.001+01:002020-12-13T18:50:58.400+01:00No results, just data<p> The opposition held this week its parallel election called "consulta popular". Whatever its result their weigh will be limited because the regime has embarked in a new course which includes not only elimination of a real opposition but even of normal elements of civil society it cannot control (1). This is Cuba in waiting for you. You doubt me? Let's look at the "result" of Sunday 6.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-E1xMXTfpufQ/X9ZAH25kr9I/AAAAAAAAGXM/gFr1b1U7AsEWHNtYxTBH4w6881nwBtdMgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1145/asamblea%2B2020.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="947" data-original-width="1145" height="322" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-E1xMXTfpufQ/X9ZAH25kr9I/AAAAAAAAGXM/gFr1b1U7AsEWHNtYxTBH4w6881nwBtdMgCLcBGAsYHQ/w360-h322/asamblea%2B2020.jpg" width="360" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">You were the one who count the votes?<br />You got this.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><p>With almost 70% of the vote the regime gets around 92% of the seats (the undecided in the graph next have mostly gone PSUV).</p><p>Nobody with a minimum of knowledge on electoral system, and how "elections" take place in Venezuela was surprised. The only ones surprised were the collection of pseudo-opposition parties who as "Mesa de Negociacion" were the caution used by the regime to change the electoral system and call for the illegal elections. That MdN did not expect to be so laminated. They "thought" that what had been agreed with the regime would improve the proportional representation. It made it worse, with close to zero minority representation! And note that the regime twisted some of the counting "electoral coalitions" post election to give them two more seats since not all major "leaders" were elected (2). That added more illegality but who's counting?<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>You know what is funny? Of all the minor parties listed the one I think to be closer from a real opposition to Maduro will be the lone representative of the Communist Party! Another delightful detail is that the party of Henri Falcon who claimed to be the opposition to Maduro in the 2018 charade got only 1 seat! In 2018 he got 21% and based himself on that to pretend at the opposition leadership. Clearly the MdN has totally failed to get anything, they have been truly the useful fool. And me thinks that of the votes they got a large chunk came from disgruntled chavistas who will vote back for the regime whenever Maduro is not on the ticket anymore.</p><p>I for one think that the announced "result" is nominally true. The regime had even to falsify numbers to make sure he got in the assembly the opposition it wanted! The fraud came from before with the extensive blackmail and voting interference perpetrated. With all the abuse of the regime even if the opposition had run it would have got more votes than the regime and yet lost the assembly. But the plan of the regime was all along to get the opposition to boycott the election The result was written months ago.</p><p>What should have done the opposition? I would have liked for this one to call for protests or at least sit ins on Sunday 6. But there is no guts left for much, courtesy of years of repression and exiled/jailed leadership. Instead they held a counter electoral event that started last Monday. They asked people to vote through an app or through Telegram on a set of three questions (meaningless in my opinion for being repetitive and wishful thinking). And yesterday as a public event with "voting" booths opened inside and outside Venezuela. They announced today a comparable number of voters than on Sunday 6, equally non auditable as the CNE numbers in my opinion.</p><p>And since I am being particularly opinionated here, I think the result of the opposition today is interesting not at all by its numbers but because in spite of all the regime abuse, the absolute lack of coverage in media they managed to mobilise millions. Imagine what the result would have been with a semblance of real electoral conditions (3).</p><p>Meanwhile the 6+ millions announced should be considered as a mere headcount of people that have not totally given up at this point. The international decision makers will decide what to do with that, it is not in our hands.</p><p>Thus the title. All of these announced results are to be considered with great care and skepticism. They are political data rather than results.</p><p>__________________________________________</p><p>1) it is good to recall that the extensive humanitarian held offered to Venezuela has been stalled because the regime insists on being its distributor. International donors cannot accept that the dictatorship will use that help for its political advantage. The regime does not care about the fate of the people in most need. </p><p>2) the two egregious cases are first Luis Parra, the vermin of Yaracuy my home state who was caught red handed in corruption, was expelled from Primero Justicia, was used by the regime on the parliamentary coup of last January were he became head of a rump parliament that voted nothing since then. He founded Primero Venezuela to syphon the votes of Primero Justicia, got financial help from the regime for his campaign, was declared loser on Sunday night by his own allies and suddenly through crass manipulation found himself elected on Tuesday. The other case is even more offensive. Timoteo Zambrano used to be the informal foreign minister of the opposition and sent to all sorts of negotiations. Not only these all failed but he was found to become cosier and cosier with the regime counterparts and former Spanish premier, Zapatero, who ended up going from mediator to supporter of Maduro. Timoteo pretended to be offended by the questioning of his ambiguous role, to say the least. He went on creating his own party and yet failed to be elected. But the CNE suddenly announced that there was a last minute change in electoral coalitions, of which there is no paper trail, and voila, Timoteo will be now the head of the "opposition" in the national assembly.</p><p>3) one silver lining that probably will never be used further by the opposition is that app voting system (VOATZ). It can be used for a lot of things such as primaries, consulting, censoring, approving. Even if not all have access to internet good enough and smart phones advanced enough, as a consulting system it could help a lot in becoming a unifying system in the opposition. But dreams are cheap, are they not?</p><p><br /></p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-6812287054937137682020-12-07T18:14:00.001+01:002020-12-07T19:07:59.580+01:00Not a victory<p>The first "results" have fallen but I did not follow. It was nice to spend an evening without worrying about elections results, for a change. Instead we did the Christmas tree at home, with a live tree to be planted in the yard in January. After 3 years of grief, sickness and exile it was nice to set a small christmas decoration....<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="es">Despues de 3 años de duelos, enfermedad y exilio es hora de recomponer un poquito la vida. La Navidad más nunca será normal pero haremos algo de ella.<br />Empezaremos con algo que no podía hacer en Venezuela, un arbolito en matero que sembraré en enero. <a href="https://t.co/qbpjtdeUue">pic.twitter.com/qbpjtdeUue</a></p>— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) <a href="https://twitter.com/danielduquenal/status/1335755365309243394?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<p>I suppose that this was a small victory for me here in exile, while unfortunately every one was met with defeat at home as I could see on Twitter this morning.</p><p>The regime first. Amazingly it conceded 70% abstention, which in itself is quite a blow for the regime. Others pollsters/observers are inclined toward an 80% abstention, suggesting number manipulation. Whatever. The point is that in spite of the grossest regime advantage, going as far as tracking down people to force them to go and vote and blackmailing them for food and cooking gas, it still had to admit a 70% abstention which at the very least means that the electoral machinery of the regime is gripped. They could not fudge the numbers, it was for all to see, even their own international "observers" would not be able to butter this up. With 70% not voting and supposedly 66% of the vote for the regime that leaves at best 20% support for Maduro. Forced support or not it does not matter for this discussion, it shows that what serious pollsters say: the regime has at most 20% of popular support. (1)</p><p>But that blow is of course no reason for the opposition to cheer. After all out of that 70% who is the real abstention and who did not vote because they preferred to stand in line to buy gas?</p><p>The numbers emitted by the CNE, if you can believe them, would give about 30% to the "opposition". Remember, the parties running "against" Maduro's PSUV are either a collection of non entities that settled with Maduro, or are <i>bona fide</i> opposition parties that have been taken over through judicial fiat by the regime, and thus running regime approved candidates. Here the defeat is for those inside the opposition that disagreed with Guaido's team: they did not get away with it! The more so if you consider that among this 30% voters there are many chavistas disgruntled with Maduro, forced to vote that voted opposition rather than than the PSUV goons. That "opposition" had months of highly publicized meeting with the regime, wanted us to swallow snakes and yet they failed to attract genuine support. 10% of the electorate, if true, for a dozen parties, well, do the math.</p><p>In short they humiliated themselves for dirty scraps. (2)</p><p>As for the real opposition that promoted abstention, they can find little comfort yesterday. Yes, the big abstention was a blow to the regime but it does not mean automatic support for the current leadership. Out of these 70% who are those who always abstain? Those disgruntled chavistas that are waiting for something better than Maduro? People who prefer to stand in line for gas? But I'll wait for a separate entry to write about the opposition's fate. (3)</p><p><br /></p><p>One thing though is absolutely certain: in 2015 the opposition in already tainted elections managed to gain 2/3 of the National Assembly. Five years later, in the middle of a devastating hyperinflation, the worst economic recession in history, millions forced into exile, lack of gas, electricity, water, food and medicine, in the middle of an ill managed pandemic, the PSUV is returned with more than a 2/3 majority. I have read hundred of history books, magazines and atlases, and yet I have never seen such a thing. But if you think this is coherent, that this is possible, even credible, then please, do call me, I have a bridge for you in Brooklyn. Cheap.</p><p><br /></p><p>-----------------------------------------------------</p><p>1) there have been plenty of leaks though elections days, from Yaracuy governor, my ex-state, at 2 PM ordering his people to move their asses to get people because by then they already knew that the numbers were too low to pictures of poll workers napping on the voting tables.....</p><p>2) Had I been forced to vote I would not have done so for these fake opposition parties. Voting null is difficult with the system. Unless there was a bat crazy candidate I would have voted for a junior allied of the PSUV Might as well get the real thing.</p><p>3) Several serious democratic countries have announced today that they are not recognizing the election. So far the only "success" the opposition can claim out if yesterday.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.com2