Venezuela News And Views

Vote for Leopoldo, pray for Maria Corina, but bet on Henrique

2012-01-25T16:56:00.001-04:30

Wilson at 29

Even though this headline does not apply anymore, I was not going to let it go to waste, having been planning a post with that title for a few days. The line comes from noted US historian Samuel Eliot Morison who recalled that the first time he voted was for the election of 1912 between Taft, T. Roosevelt as a dissident and Wilson for the Democrats. Young and inexperienced he asked for advice and one of his friends told him that line that for some strange reason always stayed with me for its nearly exquisite understanding of politics: "Vote for Roosevelt, pray for Taft, but bet on Wilson." (1)

Until Monday night this had been pretty much my feeling as to what the outcome of February 2012 should be, or at least how should I think about it. Alas, Leopoldo and Henrique tied the knot yesterday and I have not been able to pull out an adequate historical quote.

The thing is even as I was tweeting live the debate of Monday night I was also getting ready to write that post that will never be written now (to the relief of many I presume). In the debate for me it was clear again that Lopez and Machado were the superior candidates to Perez and Capriles. Not that Perez or Capriles are bad and whichever of them wins I will become a rabid supporter of their cause for next October, but in a primary you do indeed have the privilege to vote for who better represents a combination of what you think is needed , who represents your ideas best, etc... and you can vote for that person without any consequences even if you know that s/he may come in dead last at 1% of the votes cast. Voting for the apparent winner just to ease your low self esteem has never been my cup of tea, and even a counter argument if any for me as some pro Capriles folks are advancing (you all know who you are).

Thus I decided long ago that I would pick my choice as late as February 11, if needed. In other words I was going to proceed by elimination rather than by an active choice. As such until Leopoldo announced his reversal I had eliminated already Medina, Perez and Capriles. And now it remains for me to decide between Machado and Arria who I will vote for on February 12, knowing full well that unless Capriles is found in some bed having sex with a 5 years old it is nearly impossible for him to lose the primary election. Which will not happen as Capriles may be many things but a pervert he is not nor he needs to be (though the official dirty campaign has already started this early so you can imagine what will come next; and at tax payer expense on the national radio network of Venezuela, as this RNV example will illustrate).

Thus the title of my projected post, since Leopoldo was the best combination of what I wanted for Venezuela, energy to win, smarts, etc, etc... And yet Maria Corina Machado hints so badly at what we all secretly want, a classy revenge with a real new way to do things in the country, while the inevitability of Capriles looming for whatever reasons those may be closed the rewrite of the Morison line.

I discarded Medina first because even though I grew to like him during the campaign, as a real example on how people can change for better, even much better I would add, he still does not have all what it takes, no team, and too disperse a mind when intense focusing is essential as of October 8.

Perez of Zulia I was OK early, but during the campaign I started to dislike him and came to see him as the puppet of some weird Maracaibo mafia allied with the remnants of the AD/Copei mafia. I am surely wrong about the mafia part but I am not sure that someone who gets elected such such compromises may have the ability, or even be allowed to make all the tough decisions come October 8. Amen of a lousy campaign so far, always a sure sign that you may not be able to run the complexities of a country in crisis (there is a reason while the US vets its candidates through grueling campaigns, as the best way to asses the ability of the guy to perform under heavy stress). Thus, even if Tal Cual (and Teodoro) favored him from the start, it is not enough for me to follow just as it is not enough for Lopez to endorse Capriles for me to abide.

Which brings me to Capriles. For all of his success and hard work (I am a fan of him for many reasons, already giving him an assured reelection in Miranda in 2010 for his gumption in water works) I do not see him as the guy best able to face the difficult situation that awaits us next year. I have been complaining recently that Capriles's Primero Justicia is becoming a mere bad copy of old COPEI, but the Capriles campaign makes me afraid that he is a bad copy of the old Carlos Andres Perez campaign of 1988. Then CAP promised to improve on Lusinchi work and instead started a plan of economic liberalization that led us to El Caracazo. CAP was right in what had to be done but he did not campaign on it and today we are still paying the consequences for that miscalculation of his campaign.

Through the campaign I have never seen a clear hint from Capriles that he truly measures the task ahead, and that he comprehends fully the situation the country is in. I mean, surely he has an idea, surely some folks at PJ must know, but I have not seen that hint that would reassure me that he fathoms the abyss. In fact the whole campaign of Capriles can be summarized as some form of chavismo light, a "I will be efficient" theme and that the "best" of populism will be preserved, that all that matters is that me and my guys are in charge. Well, it is not, and even if Arria or Medina or Machado may exaggerate on occasion they are at least showing me that they truly understand what is at stake, what awaits them. Capriles does not, and his calm, composed, intentionally boring presentations at debates, with a repetitive message targeted to the chavismo dissatisfied with little intellectual demands, with allies that give him a chavismo light quality label turn me off completely; besides worrying me sick that he will fail, and that electing him may turn out to make things worse in the long term (Ortega's return in Nicaragua, anyone?). October 7 is not about fixing potholes even if that is the only thing that 90% of the country wants to hear.

I am not asking him for a blood and tears speech, I know he needs to be elected, but at least he should make it clearer that some sacrifices will have to be made otherwise the Caracazo that awaits him will make the previous one a child's game.

So I am left to decide between voting for Maria Corina or Diego Arria. Both today came forcefully out in stating that they remain in the race until the end and, I presume, getting a not insignificant share of Leopoldo's vote, and who knows, maybe of Perez vote now that it seems he will not win. The good thing about Leopoldo endorsement of Capriles is that now it is much easier for some of us to vote our conscience. And this blogger will.

-------------------

1) I should not assume that everyone is a history buff like me.

That line meant at the time that Teddy Roosevelt was immensely popular yet controversial for breaking the GOP ranks, while Taft represented the safe and secure business establishment. Thus the rather weak democrats had an opportunity to benefit from that GOP division, which they did ushering in 8 years of Wilson administration.

That is why this line is so good because it reflected so concisely the dilemma of the majority republican of the time absolutely unable to make up their mind between a political star (and successful ex-president but always perceived as reckless) and and a dull but safe administrator. They knew full well that it opened the door to an untested intellectual (never a plus in US politics) who indeed became president (and was for that matter the last intellectual to hold the presidency).

The debate that ended in a real surprise

2012-01-24T02:08:00.000-04:30

At the debate tonight what mattered the most was the leaving line of Leopoldo Lopez as to a forthcoming joint announcement with Capriles next day. In fact, after watching it live, really, Miguel and I did hang out for a while and all candidates did, except Leopoldo who was nowhere to be found, with few of his supporters around except for his mother that made a point to go and give Capriles a hug (well, we thought it was Leopoldo's mother anyway). There is no need to treat this as some form of running away, but simply something big is planned tomorrow and the less people had access to LL and his close circle, the less possibility of a leak as to the details.

It would be unbecoming, so to speak, to speculate widely as to the announcement tomorrow but tonight we can certainly piece up a few things. Readers of this blog should not be too surprised after all: the Maria Corina Machado bout with Chavez 10 days ago has changed the dynamics of the campaign (here and here). Not that Henrique Capriles Radonski is threatened decisively but now positions 2, 3 and 4 are up for grabs and wide open for Pablo Perez, LL and MCM, without discounting that after tonight's performance HCR is not going to go up in polls and could well be in trouble by February 12. Let's face it, if Capriles were so sure of winning, why would he accept a pact with Leopoldo at this late in the game?

So, what gives?

LL has been done in by the non committal performance of the judicial system that let's in place a possible impeachment where he to win. People like me know full well that chavismo will not dare to refuse a victorious LL to take office, but the hoi polloi does not understand those subtleties and actually thing that Chavez would get away with what would be a coup d'etat unacceptable for his colleagues. Simply put, for all his best effort, his dynamic campaign, LL had to spend a debilitating precious time to convince people of that without really succeeding.

But LL has long term plans. In fact of the 6 candidates they are only three that have the potential to become statesmen some day, LL, MCM and Arria. But for LL anything short of a 2nd place or excellent third place is not acceptable for his future career. And MCM stunt makes that there is no poll able to measure such a shifting landscape in the next two weeks before February 12. A decision of sorts had to be made so as not to risk and undeserved embarrassment.

HCR had problems of his own. He might be leading but it seems that this lead has stopped growing long ago (maybe shrinking some as no one is publishing any poll). In fact debates et al, have shown his limitations even though his qualities were still apparent. Probably his own campaign staff agrees with me that MCM may take more votes from his base than he could care to admit. And finally, the Unidad having refused to allow for a second round balloting, the perspective of winning with as little as a 35% of the vote does not yield a strong candidate to counter Chavez.

An alliance between the 25% certain of HCR and the 10% certain of LL gives a 35% certain that is easier to transform into a convincing 51% on February 12. Simple mathematics, you see....

But it is also more than mere mathematics: worrying about a mandate election is the sure sign of a maturing opposition that starts to understand truly the nature of the challenge next year if it wins. And there is also the possibility to try the all new front. See, LL and HCR appeared in politics AFTER Chavez and 4th republic charges cannot be lobbed at them. The more so with a PODEMOS and PPT caution. Whereas PP is burdened with the Maracaibo mafia, and the AD one and the COPEI one...... In fact, as one of my contacts suggested, there may have been also into consideration that paying the departure of Chavez with the return of AD and COPEI was not acceptable.....

I will stop here because anything else without knowledge of the details of the agreement would start now to be the domain of astrologers. More tomorrow.

PS: as I finish this I see Miguel's post on this evening. I agree with all what he said except that I would have put LL on top with a very close second for MCM. For more details on my differences with Miguel you can read my Twitter timeline of tonight. And as Miguel does, I apologize that we were not readier to face technology challenges, trusting Globovision and the UNIMET to supply better access to technology.

A 23 de Enero with a new breeze

2012-01-23T17:20:00.000-04:30

Today we commemorate January 23 1958 date we threw out or one before last dictator. Yes, I consider now Chavez a dictator even if he has been elected at some point So the opposition Unidad decided to use the date to offer the governmental program for the next elected president of the opposition. Assuming we will win.... Still, it was a nice ceremony that I attended courtesy of my contacts with X. I did a live twittering of the whole thing with some picture (not too good, my zoom stopped working for some mystery reason not solved yet). Nice, simple ceremony with the 6 candidates on state listening the presentation and not declaring anything.

Yet, there was a small problem we heard later: Arria refused to sign, which probably will do him in, with the "Unidad" spirit prevalent these days for better or for worse. He may have a point, that promising stuff is almost idiotic since we have no idea in which state the new president will receive the country. We all know that, but we better keep silent about it. Then again, if polls are not good, a "por ahora" moment is desperately sought.

Chavistas of course dismissed the whole thing, without even reading it since it came up on line sometime after the ceremony. But then again, they should say so since they have no program but their master's voice.....

Debate tonight

2012-01-23T17:01:00.000-04:30

Tonight we have what might be the last debate before the campaign ending, or at least the last debate that may still change the arriving order. I will be covering it live either on twitter or blog. Starting Caracas time 8 PM. It is hosted by Globovision and it seems that the format will change some so that the candidates will have the opportunity to diss the other guys a little bit. should be more enjoyable than the previous ones. And Globovision is seen in many countries so check your cable if your Spanish allows for trying to watch the show.

Campaign temperature

2012-01-20T23:49:00.002-04:30

Without judging the value of that video or investigating whether the claims are correct (I assume that they are not totally misleading because at this stage of the campaign it would be too dangerous to pull such a stunt) I am putting this video ad of Leopoldo Lopez which apparently was censored by X. It is about Lopez commitment to fight crime. I have no further detail so far on that censorship allegation. Regardless, it gives you an idea of the campaign temperature and probably foretells a more interesting debate than usual next Monday night. You do not need to understand Spanish to get the mood.

The other primaries: PJ gambit in Miranda and Aragua

2012-01-19T21:51:00.001-04:30

Let's start for the easiest one to discuss and the only one that has reliable polls for some of the races. Primero Justicia is trying to with Miranda what UNT has done in Zulia: transform the state into its political base and try from there to hopscotch elsewhere, like in next door Aragua. For this it is willing to burn bridges and antagonize whoever it needs to.

Miranda governor

If there are five crucial races to watch in Venezuela next February, the Miranda primary for governor maybe the most telling one of the lot. It pits former governor Mendoza of COPEI to "upstart" mayor of Petare PJ's Ocariz. Mendoza should have been governor in lieu of Capriles but in 2008 he was "inhabilitado", barred from running through an administrative fiat of the regime. He swallowed hard and was good sport enough to help Capriles win Miranda with his still significant popularity and electoral machine. He expected to have the elevator sent back to him as soon as his legal if unfair limitation was lifted but no. PJ in 2010 had quite a hard time to accept relinquishing a safe seat to Mendoza for the National Assembly. Thus the stage was set for today's dispute where Mendoza ads have no qualms in using Capriles weakest spot of his administration, security.

Not that I want to defend Capriles but with the emergencies that he had to face because of the weather and the excessive sabotage by chavismo upset at him unseating Diosdado Cabello from Miranda and trying to investigate him for corruption, Capriles could barely breathe enough to face the emergencies and could simply not put security as a top priority.

The dispute has been long brewing and COPEI used all its contacts, with AD, inside the Unidad to force Capriles to either run for president or for reelection and thus forcing PJ to put up for grabs Miranda. PJ took the challenge because it has a good candidate with Ocariz who in spite of all sabotaging by chavismo and an unrepresentative local council still managed to improve things in the difficult and popular district of Sucre which includes the Eastern part of Caracas choke-full of slums.

Thus the interest of the race: on one side we have the old system represented by one of its ablest managers with Henrique Mendoza and the new "upstarts" of Primero Justicia helped by chavismo dissidence. A bellwether race if any! Unfortunately for Mendoza, having been away for two terms and having been unable to make good figuration in the national assembly in 2011 the race will almost certainly go for Ocariz, pulled by Capriles at the top of the ticket. Polls indicate that already. Politics is a particularly ungrateful bitch....

Miranda districts

Here PJ is aiming for the grand slam and as far as I know all districts are going to primaries with always a PJ candidate running against all the others. The prognosis is that PJ should win the primary everywhere except perhaps in the Caracas districts of Baruta and Chacao.

Sucre which is left behind by Ocariz has the good fortune for PJ to have a candidate with a certain Caldera who actually did get better known through his job at the National Assembly. Thus that district of Caracas should remain in the hands of PJ in any election. But the other districts of Caracas are another matter and even victories there by PJ may not be that helpful in the long run for the resentment that they will bring.

First there is the unnecessary and even mean attempt by PJ to force its way back into Chacao town-hall now presided by Grateron of Voluntad Popular, their only elected position in the country so far for the party of Leopoldo Lopez. This is a mean move and probably due mostly to the resentment inside PJ for Lopez departure a few years ago. Ramon Muchacho already lost 4 years ago against Grateron, by a rather wide margin considering that it was an open 4 way race where the opposition had been unable to agree, a major scandal at the time even though Chacao is the safest opposition district in the country. I think it is a useless distracting move by PJ and I wish the best to Grateron in the primary because he has also been a very decent mayor. I am calling this one for Grateron in spite of the dirty campaigning of Muchacho.

Another rather mean move of PJ is in Baruta district even though at least they have an excuse there. 3 years ago the natural heir of Capriles, then outgoing mayor of Baruta, was stopped from running for an "inhabilitacion". Uzcategui would have been a shoo in for the job and now he wants his revenge even though Gerardo Blyde did not do a bad job with the town hall, making a point to insist of continuity of a good administration, something that PJ has no consideration for. In fact, Uzcategui is aware that like Mendoza he does not have much of a case and runs very emotional ads bringing forward shameless imagery of Capriles. Thus in Baruta we have an interesting race where both newcomers and old timers are divided between two symbols of the new politics of Venezuela. I am afraid that the race will in the end go for Uzcategui because of the pull of Capriles at the top and not his own merits. But at least Blyde has a chance.

The other districts of Miranda are a free for all that all should result in a PJ victory, which stress even better that PJ should have graciously conceded at least Chacao. But as I have noted PJ is starting to look more and more like the old parties......

Aragua governor

The only race to watch there is for governor and maybe Maracay mayor. I think that the grip of chavismo is still too strong in that state in spite of all its failures and corruption, even the governor seat will be hard to pry. Thus the interest of the local primaries are strictly to see how opposition parties evolve, namely if PODEMOS will be able to become a real option (doubtful since its leader left Aragua to run for a Caracas job) or whether AD and COPEI may make a slight come back. That is, the question is will PJ be able to fill the political void of the state (UNT is nowhere to be seen there).

PJ has a good chance. It has an appealing candidate in Richard Mardo who barely lost Maracay mayor in 2008 and won without much trouble the Maracay seat for the national assembly in 2010. He should win the governor primary even if in front he has Henry Rosales who may have won the 2008 primary but was soundly beaten for the governor race. Henry Rosales thus represent a little bit the old party system there and his score will be telling: if he does not get at least 40% that will mean that AD, COPEI, MAS are done with as PODEMOS prefers to hide its weakness behind PJ (possibly getting the top spot for Maracay mayor).

This race is crucial for PJ because if it is about to take control of most of Miranda it seems woefully unable to really score big outside of Caracas area. This make the Aragua race one of the top 5 races to watch because if Mardo wins the primary it will be the first major victory of PJ outside of Caracas and its graduation from regional party to national party.

The other primaries: ground rules for local election peering

2012-01-18T14:07:00.000-04:30

If general attention is focused mostly on the presidential primaries of the opposition, for some of us who live in the hinterlands of Venezuela the picture is not necessarily set in the studios of Globovision or OpEd columns or blogs written from Caracas or outside the country. Since Panorama faked debate was supposed to be about the regional proposals of the 6 musketeers, it is as a good a time to start looking into the other primaries, for governors and mayors. The first post will be about PJ efforts in Miranda and Aragua while further posts will visit some important regional primaries but before we start, some ground rules, so to speak (so that other posts may be short and breezy).

The first thing to note is that if polling is hard to come for major candidates who have little money and keep close to their chest their cards, you can imagine how much more difficult it is for polling for governors or mayors. In fact, the few polling one has access to sounds much more like poll wars than anything else.

The second thing to consider is that local primaries and presidential primaries affect each other a lot. That is, if in a state PJ is running candidates, those will be helped by Henrique Capriles Radonski (HCR) relatively high polling numbers and vice versa. But PJ candidates running in Zulia, if any, will have quite a hard time, no matter how high HCR performs, while this one may suffer in Zulia counts.

A third thing to observe is that the only candidates who have a reasonable slot of running mates elsewhere (PJ and UNT through HCR and Pablo Perez, PP respectively) three of the other candidates do not support much locals or are supported by few and yet their poll numbers, even if low, may have an effect on the local race (Arria for one has announced that he would not support any because he would have to work with all were he to become president, a posturing he may be regretting these days). On this respect Voluntad Popular (VP) of Leopoldo Lopez (LL) is an exception of sorts as it has taken an early policy of supporting whomever is best even if that person is not supporting LL. Though the lack of reciprocity has made VP run its own guys in many a joint.

In other words there is a lot of possible cross overs, the more so that a given governor candidate may be weak whereas the mayor one from the same party may be strong, but not strong enough to force a vote for the governor nominated. As you will start to guess, prediction of results is rather difficult when you leave the 6 musketeers situation even though these local results could in the end have very specific consequences for them. In Venezuela we have had some interesting surprises of vote changing at the last minute. One of the recent examples was Grateron in Chacao who was barely ahead, supposedly closely followed by the UNT candidate and yet in the last 24 hours the pendulum shifted, he won handily, the UNT candidate got a dismal 4th position, BEHIND the chavista candidate, and for all practical purposes her career was over.

What I am trying to say is that if the presidential race is close, a couple of states could bring the decisive edge to one of the guys. Equally, a strong lead by HCR could help a lot the PODEMOS and PJ lads running for smaller districts. I know, I know, this is rather obvious, but what I am trying to convey is that for these primaries it may be a bigger consideration than for other electoral episodes, the more so that we are not used to primaries. And even more if we add the immeasurable subjective factor that many people may still vote for the one they like knowing s/he will lose because they know that they will vote for the unity candidate anyway.

Finally, in spite of all of these caveats the local primaries will be a watershed election. If they are not going to help much in deciding who will win the general election (governors are in a year and mayors in almost 1 and a half which is a life time in politics) they will be the first true and real measure on how far the new parties have advanced against the old ones. That is, for the first time PJ, UNT will face up in enough places with AD and COPEI to see a new political who's of Venezuela while we see how recent upstarts fare (from VP to the PODEMOS and PPT combo to see how well they did in their post Chavez life). In the end this will be the most important take home lesson of the February primaries.

Ibsen Martinez calls Maria Corina Friday moment a "black swan"

2012-01-18T13:13:00.001-04:30

Ibsen Martinez, noted political commentator, has just published an article in La Patilla where he writes about 90% of what I wrote yesterday about Maria Corina Machado moment at the National Assembly last Friday. The 10% missing is that he calls it a "black swan", an unexpected event that will have durable consequences. So I do not need to translate it since you can read my post again and just add "black swan" wherever you may like :)

Debate versus cadena

2012-01-18T00:00:00.000-04:30

Tonight we had the leisure to compare an exercise in neo-totalitarianism and an essay on democracy. Neo-totalitarianism lost hands down.

Chavez dared to call a cadena on the formal appointment of Rangel Silva as new defense minister. He already is but there is always a ceremony of sorts since military love to polish their shoes, dress up, pin up their shiny chest hardware. So Chavez decided to make it a grand ceremony and attack all those who attack Rangel Silva, and upgrade (?) Maria Corina Machado from fly to viper. I made a video of the beginning but the Internet is soooo bad tonight that I am not sure to finish this post before midnight. So tomorrow from work I will upload it because it is worth it for you to see what a lousy army we now have, morally AND physically.

Neo-tots

But the worse of the show was not the scenery, it was to see that in an activity that concerns exclusively the executive and the armed forces all the alleged independent powers of the state were sitting in the front row and applauding at any politicized declaration of Chavez or the out-going in in-going ministers. The message was clear, and it was to the military of Venezuela, not me: "see, all come here to pay tribute, the change of defense ministry is the highest function of the state, you are on top. That is, as long as you only recognize me as your commander in chief." Heck! Chavez was even dressed as a civilian to stress that point! Or, in common parlance: "if you want to keep cashing good and keep your privileges, you know what you have to do".

Democrats

But I will pass on the bevy of neofascist phrases from Chavez to focus in an amusing example of debate-non-debate which actually demonstrated clearly how democratic our Unidad 6 musketeers are compared to how dogmatic and brain washed chavismo has become.

Panorama newspaper did hold its debate tonight. And it was on a Direct TV channel so after all I was able to watch it at the last minute, missing actually the opening question to Arria. No time to warn you, sorry. I was left with the option to tweet it live.

The format was lousy, trying to avoid debate between the candidates. The journos of Panorama did decide on all the questions and were allowed a follow up question with a shorter 30 sec reply to the original 1 minute reply. In other words it was Venevision again but without the glamour set or the pretense at objectivity. After all, what can you expect from journalists that have spent the best years of their career finding creative ways to shine a positive light on the regime?

Indeed the heavy pro Chavez bias appeared from the very first round of questions. I say heavy in my eyes because in their eyes they must have thought of themselves as paragons of objectivity. But I can assure you that El Ciudadano at Globovision can ask meaner and more difficult questions to his friends than that bunch did from what could be considered political enemies. And that is why the debate in the end worked because it quickly became funny. Funny because the chavista journos were not up to the task, one of them, in Maracaibo, going as far as wearing the favored accessory of fashionable chavista women in power: a couture scarf (silly canary yellow in her case).

I am just going to give you the most glaring examples, two questions to Maria Corina who was certainly the main target tonight. The idea was to try to ship her into irrelevance. So they asked her about abortion to which she answered adequately, GOP style moderate. Pressed on as to make abortion right in Venezuela a referendum (it is forbidden) she brilliantly replied that no human right should ever be put up to referendum. But that was not enough: she was asked what quality of Dilma Roussef and Cristina Kirchner she would like to have herself. Two socialist women, you can imagine her surprise. But she managed well. She made her surprise last while she found a reply and on Dilma it was easy as the woman has real qualities. But pressed on Kirchner who has no admirably qualities whatsoever unless dirty wily politician is considered one, she replied that she could use a strong political organization which was a backhanded way to say that the woman truly suck and that the journalist should be embarrassed to consider la Kirchner a motif of admiration (well, she has one quality after all, her distaste of Iran).

The other trick questions for the other candidates were not as bad but still bad enough that quickly it became a funny sports game of volleying back to the journalist their lack of seriousness and ethics.

So you got it, another wasted opportunity. And yet not all was lost. First, when compared to Rangel Silva or Chavez speeches, the 6 musketeers proved each to be remarkable democrats, duly vetted and tested and able and independently minded and reasonable, and witty, and educated. I think a political ad should be made with a few seconds of the earlier cadena and a couple of choice lines from the musketeers.

Alas, it was still a debate and there must be winners and losers. Without a question Leopoldo Lopez was the clear winner this time around. Finding his groove he was relaxed and intense at the same time, showing truly why he wants to be president and believing in the good he can do. But Maria Corina Machado was a close second even though on twitter I tied her up. The thing is that after last Friday I was trying to avoid reverse discrimination and forced myself to lower my expectations so as not to be unfair to her. After all you cannot produce everyday a line that will resonate in all the country for days or more. But as I type it was Leopoldo that came ahead in my mind, clearly. His proposals made sense, he knew his stuff, he had great presence, etc...

Capriles needs more excitement in his approach and tonight he was barely adequate. He certainly looked bored and unhappy to have been trapped in the ridiculous set up but at the end he joined the fray and showed that he could actually make fun of the journalists when he offered yellow scarf to come and be treated for free in one of the hospitals he manages in Miranda.

Medina is a mess but a lovable one as his heart is clearly in the right place. He also had the best moment when questioned about why he was cavorting with the right, his ancient foes. He did not need to think about the reply for a second: because "we are all united against the dictatorship". I am sure that whatever journo at Panorama came up with that question will not receive an end of year bonus....

Arria seemed tired and got the most unfair question of all: why with low polls he is still in the race. To begin with, no one has published a recent poll on such numbers and thus it was unfair for the journalist to share such an information which might be unknown to the candidate. And second, as Arria rightly replied, if candidates were to decide all according to polls we would not need elections anymore. Which, come to think of it, is exactly what chavistas would like things to be as no matter how low Chavez is the opposition division always allows him to be on top in polls, until there is a single name in front.

However the big loser, no questions, is Pablo Perez who may have damaged his campaign beyond repair tonight. First, I wondered whether he knew he was in front of a national debate (even if labelled for the regions, which it was not in practice). Or whether he thought this indeed was a town meeting in Tucusiapon de Machiques. He also got the easiest question of the lot and managed to blow it totally! He just needed to say what all know, and certainly at this level, that the price of oil is determined by how much India and China keep growing. Instead he went on a tirade that made no sense about oil industry jobs and who knows what. Nasty! Thus the journo with the most idiotic question of the evening got a pass after all.... It was not, unfortunately, that question alone: in other questions he was almost as weak which forces me to my great regret to announce that he is the first candidate that I am officially discarding for February. Heck, even for October I would have trouble to be enthusiastic about supporting him since I even doubt he can take upon Chavez....

Shifting political grounds

2012-01-17T13:10:00.002-04:30

I am not too sure what is exactly going on but one thing is certain: many players are getting ready for a change. We are not sure what change is coming but something is coming. And I am not talking about only the possibility of Chavez losing office.

The thing is that the reactions of some pro Chavez players added to the general reactions to Maria Corina Machado "por ahora" moment last Friday has been quite revealing in that some form change is certainly coming. I doubt that people know what they want but that is another story. I have been thinking a lot about that since Saturday and below, in no particular order, some thoughts.

MCM and PJ: exposing the COPEI-zation of Primero Justicia?

Last night Julio Borges, the head honcho at Primero Justicia, was in Alo Ciudadano. We need to understand that if Capriles is the candidate of PJ, Borges is the one running the show inside. He had actually a stellar moment last Friday too when he told Chavez that there was no point in discussing whether the regime built X houses when independent observers calculate it is only Y houses. His question was simple: if the regime indeed has built so many lodgings how come the climate refugees of 2010 and 2011 are still in the refuges? No real answer from Chavez on why these people have not received these houses for which we were told they had priority to the point of violating the Constitution with an enabling law, but we got in exchange a cruel exposition of chavismo hypocrisy, and on paper as good as the MCM thievery implication. Thus Borges was invited for a serious commenting on Chavez declarations; and yet every caller wanted to talk about MCM, one silly woman even asking why did not Borges defend MCM as if he were expected to run on stage and beat down Chavez to a pulp because he looked askance at Maria......

The answer to these emotions lies elsewhere. PJ is facing a problem that is bigger than what we thought: some people are resentful that PJ which natural vocation was to become a modern liberal right of center alternative is instead giving the appearance of selling out. That woman so harshly criticizing Borges is probably a Caracas woman that marched in many opposition rallies, probably often next to the PJ contingent if not within.

The thing is that it has been disconcerting to many, including yours truly, to see with what ease PJ has allied itself with all sorts of transfuges from chavismo. Nobody can quite clearly understand how come PODEMOS and PPT have been so easily able to pact with PJ when there were more logical options. If to this you add the non confrontational campaign of HCR, openly wooing the soft chavista vote, you can easily understand that the hard core opposition voters who are at the start of PJ are rather discombobulated even if until now they followed orders accepting the pragmatism of PJ campaign. You must remember that PJ leadership in 2002 and 2003 got a lot of tear gas thrown at them when Leo was still inside and when Ismael was still defending Chavez.

I have a possible explanation: dissidence of chavismo and reality checks have convinced PJ to become the one to deal with chavismo to ease its way out. That is why PODEMOS and PPT are in so readily because they think that negotiations are in order, that chavismo after 13 years cannot be removed as if nothing and thus a transition period is a must, which hopefully will benefit PPT and PODEMOS while PJ will hold power for as few years as possible. This implies that enough inside chavismo know they are done for the time being and are unwilling to lose their privileges making them willing to negotiate through third parties preservation of a power/wealth quota.

But this does not go without its problems for PJ and HCR as the not insignificant rather radical vote inside PJ is having a harder and harder time to swallow the pill. We have had that happen in our past and to this day we are still paying the price. COPEI started as the democratic right wing option to AD left wing. Yet it seemed very difficult for COPEI to reach power and its leader, Rafael Caldera was not the most patient of men. What he did was very simple: taking advantage of an AD internal division, he squeaked into power with the slimmest of margins and made a pact with AD by which AD retained some parcels of power while COPEI completed its transition to an AD like populism. As a result AD and COPEI became every election harder to differentiate, people got tired of the lack of options and in 1998 Chavez swept away the system.

Thus Primero Justica may be having its own COPEI like moment and there will be consequences to pay.

Maria Corina Machado and the new right?

While PJ is facing into consensus politics blandness MCM did break a taboo of Venezuelan politics last Friday, in addition of her "por ahora" moment.

Since 1958 there has been no avowed enter right party in Venezuela (except in circumstantial moments, flash in the pans like the Cruzada Civica Nacionalista of the 60ies). Even COPEI called itself "social-christian". Not only this has not helped the country by never offering a credible alternative, but it also helped Chavez in calling all those to his right the "ultra-right", and make it stick. After all, no one in Venezuela has any good idea what the democratic right stands for, since even our "traditional" right, the army, is now proclaiming itself socialist.

By reverting the tables when calling the socialism of Chavez robbery, MCM might have hit much harder and higher than she ever thought she could. Her enthusiastic reception by students and business folks last Sunday at the UNIMET tells us that. Her "capitalismo popular" suddenly becomes more credible as it is suddenly not associated anymore to the erroneous notion that free enterprise is organized robbery as chavismo would like us to believe.

Suddenly MCM has a role much bigger for her than winning next February 12: she is going to singlehandedly have the opportunity to create a democratic right movement that in 6 years from now (and probably much less) will become a real political option in Venezuela. As such, she stands right now to bring the biggest political change in Venezuela since 1958. Yes, 1958, because Chavez is a continuation of precedent politics, the final outcome of crass populism that always ends up into a transmutation into some form of fascism.

I do not know, and less speculate on how fast this will happen. It is probably too late for MCM to win next month, but it is quite possible that of today the HCR coalition can only grow from its left, as it will start a slow bleeding from its right. But this, to me, is not the point anymore. Be it Diego Arria or HCR, the next president will by force be a transition figure and surprising political novelties are in store for us.

Opportunists in the rebound

A sure mark that chavismo knows that change is on the horizon comes from of the pro Chavez private media which is suddenly rushing to renew their ties with the opposition. We already had the lousy debate at Venevision early December but today we have a stunt by Panoramra offering a debate among Unidad candidates through an Internet format and regional TV, labelled a debate for the regions. Seeing Panorama, the oldest and still main Maracaibo paper which has not written a nice line about anyone inside the opposition since I can remember, organizing a Unidad debate is at the very least a shocker. I am not going to reproach the primary candidate to participate in it, they need all the exposure they can get and such a Panorama move is good in particular if you ant to reach the soft chavista vote, but I note that of this tying the debate is only advertised by Panorama, of course, but also by Venevision.... Nor will I expect much from them since Panorama controls all the questions, even from the Internet, so we may be assured that they will try to avoid any offense to Chavez, reeling badly from last Friday as it is.

I will not follow the debate because my Internet is too lousy for such an event and Direct TV does not carry my regional TV. But that is OK, I am sure. Panorama is not expecting to change anything, they are just doing the needed hypocrisy to remain in business once the regime falls. Who knows, such a spineless paper may be some day supporting a right wing government of MCM........

Marian stunts: part 2, Maria C. at the National Assembly

2012-01-15T19:34:00.000-04:30

Daring!

One thing was certain: the talk of the town waiting for the Divina Pastora to walk by was of Maria Corina Machado calling Chavez a thief. That is, for those who did not forget their political interests while performing their marian devotions. And as the week end progressed she remained the talk of the town, to the point that Chavez himself felt compelled to pretend to be the aggravated party when it was for all to see that he was a mere machista lout in his blurted reply to her last Friday.

The thing is that the Friday show, which lasted 9 hours or something like that, was merely an electoral campaign stunt for Chavez that did not turn as expected and that became the "por ahora" of Maria Corina Machado. Chavez wanted to use the pretext of the "state of the union" chavista style to prove once and for all that he had recovered and that he was in charge. Bruni even suggests to us that the ultimate intention of Chavez was to establish a Guinness record just in case he dies or gets the boot next October. And indeed 9.5 hours is a record that only a more deranged mind than Chavez or Fidel may want to challenge.

Since as it has been the case in the past 12 years that the negative outweighs the positive, as usual Chavez strategy was to speak for hours on end trying to distract the audience with personal anecdotes and stuff like that. One wonders how a recovering man can stand for 9 hours to speak, but he did (with an adult diaper?), and his fortitude (drug induced?) was the intended message. Or that was the intention until it all fizzled out and the 2 minutes of Maria Corina Machado all but annulled the 9 hours of Chavez.

La Patilla had one of the first Youtube excerpts out on the exchange between them. A lot other versions have come out where the title is altered to suit the media favor (for example pro Chavez Panorama of Maracaibo title the video "Chavez replies to Maria Corina"). So below you have the La Patilla Youtube so you can keep giving hits to make it the most read of the lot.

Some explanations are in order. When Maria Corina addressed Chavez she had been sitting for at least 6 hours listening to the ramblings of Chavez. Anyone in that position would have been exceeded and upon taking the microphone would have been nervous as she was. But that served her well because her few seconds of fame do not look rehearsed at all, the woman really had the wits to overcome her hunger, her desire to visit the rest room, her annoyance, her boredom, her indignation at Chavez abuses and shameless lies, to retort fearlessly to him. No wonder Chavez felt compelled to return to that scene today, and perhaps even to cancel today's Alo Presidente until he can evaluate dealing with that outburst that cost him so much.

For those who do not speak Spanish at all the highlights:
- early Chavez states that if he loses he will surrender power, trying to make amends from his general declarations that they would not recognize an adverse results Observation: the foreign corps is present and those intemperate military words did a lot of damage to Chavez.
- put pause on second 7 and look at an hilarious Soto Rojas enjoying the machista mockery of Chavez toward MCM and her contained anger at such public abuse
- just at sec 24 look at the scornful smile of Chavez thinking he had trashed her
- at second 34 starts MCM reminding that they have been sitting for 8 hours for nothing, telling him that he lied on purpose as to the increase in milk production as all Venezuelan mother know how hard it is to find milk, about the 180,000 mother grieving for a killed relative since he became president, as to his lack of solutions and that the time for bullshit is over. The chavista crowd in the background mocks her and Chavez to his credit makes them hush (the opposition deputies were not allowed to invite anyone, only chavista are in attendance besides the diplomatic corps who stays mute at all times, see more on that at the end of the post)
- but the line that got most media is when she said that expropriating without adequate payment was robbery (starts at 1:37) which made Chavez react repeating "robbing" (at 1:41)
- and at the end (2:22) Chavez does not reply and, remaining the machista lout he is, demands her to win the primary before she dares asking for a debate, and he keeps trying to find more rather desperate words to humiliate her while the chavista crowd roars in ecstasy at the vulgarity. Never mind that we all know that never has Chavez debated with anyone, and certainly never again will he subject himself to the risks of a mere exchange in cadena.

Certainly these two minutes of video cannot illustrate better how undemocratic chavismo has become, how brain washed are its components starting with Chavez who places himself above all. Certainly for his first real commendable attempt ever to start a debate he blew it badly.

We need to appreciate what Maria Corina has done because let's not pretend that chavismo is not going to try to exact revenge from that one. How and when is just a matter of time and circumstances. All of us in the opposition do know that, instinctively now after 12 years. And as such we do appreciate her selfsacrifice. True, it will serve her campaign well but the thing is that anyone who observes that video has to conclude that it was not a prepared statement, that it was an impulse response and that the woman, well, she has balls if you will forgive me this machista comment.

In other words Maria Corina Machado puts her money where her mouth his and such a novel thing in Venezuelan politics will have a lot of echo until February 12 and maybe later even if she does not win. Because this is where the effect of her words must be found. It is possible that as of Friday the race for 2nd and 3rd slot has become wide open between MCM, PP and LL but also HCR will be affected.

See, the hard opposition core vote is already split between Arria and Machado with a dash to Lopez. Those "hard core" will stay where they are though she could get some of the Arria vote after Friday. But there is also a not so hard core vote but hard enough who supports the campaign of Capriles and Perez. They have accepted pragmatism, avoiding calls of revenge in the hope of trying to get enough chavista votes to win not only in the primaries but also in October. I have already discussed why I do not agree with that strategy and will not come back on it. But Friday brought a new element: Machado personal stand has revealed a lot the hypocrisy behind such a pragmatic approach for UNT, PJ and AD. That has to give a bad taste to many inside who digest badly the idea that most of chavismo will not only go unpunished but will retain enough strength to sabotage and eventually come back Nicaragua style.

It is there where Maria Corina Machado may suddenly start gaining traction and I expect any time soon HCR and PP to become a little bit more incisive in their attacks on Chavez if they know what is better for them. If they do not, then all ticket spots will be up for grabs in February no matter what polls may be saying today. And this is quite a stunt for Maria, if you ask me. And it may be already paying off today at the UNIMET.

Finally, to tie the two posts, from La Pastora to Maria Corina Machado. La Pastora reminded us some of the good values of Venezuelan society, when for a few hours we can all put aside our differences, still existing after 13 years of chavista onslaught. But the treatment received by Maria Corina Machado, the situation that forced her to say what she said also remind us that chavismo is deliberately bringing us toward some final confrontation. You have it all there, in less than 24 hours. Think about it for a while, will you?

------------------------------------------
On a not totally unrelated topic and not wanting to make a separate post out if it.

Coming back to Friday. The S.O. was told on Thursday that it was mandatory attendance Friday in front of the National Assembly to welcome the beloved leader. So, putting up with that obligation with a grin he took his discrete camera and sends for us a few pictures below (again, the only opposition available at the National Assembly where the Representative because it could not be helped and the hidden ones like the S.O.). Maybe Maria Corina saw that on her way in and got her upset quite early? My brief comment under each picture.

All sorts of bizarre groups with elaborate "spontaneous" banners attended. In this one you can read that all socialist producers and produceresses (?) of the Guillermo Ribas producing unit wish Chavez well.

Here we are supposed to believe that they cam from afar, risking their health walking barefoot in Caracas filthy streets.....

Certainly the adjacent blocks to the National Assembly had to be red, without forgetting Cuba with its flag, mercifully displayed below the Venezuelan one. What you are seeing of course is mostly public employees getting sort of a day off from that carnival. El Pueblo has no time for that, needs to go to find milk, sugar, coffee, corn flour, etc and there was no distribution points set up.

Of course, celebratory music was in order while the banner reads that all the scheduled work for 2011 was well done

And now we also have chavista brown shirts. Or is that khaki?

Marian stunts: part 1, at La Divina Pastora

2012-01-14T23:45:00.000-04:30

La Divina Pastora, my second ever tweetpic

I do not know what to think of that coincidence. On Friday a woman called Maria did bring religion to many people by calling Hugo Chavez a thief. And today I went to Barquisimeto to watch that other miracle, a Madonna image called La Divina Pastora bring to the streets millions, with S, of people to march along her side. We will start with the procession of La Divina Pastora.

I am not a believer, I am an agnostic and as such you need to read this photo essay, making sure that any belief you hold is not offended. And yet, the intensity of the moment with the huge crowds that one has to face can raise troubling feelings, if anything of jealously for not being able to be a believer of anything.

But I digress. I had wanted for years to attend one of these events, the easier for me that I do have relatives in Barquisimeto and I can arrive the day before to dodge the bullet of massive traffic jam on the 14 in the morning. Already I did write about this event in 2004, which by the way was the first time ever that blogger allowed me to post pictures in the blog. It is kind of fitting that 8 years after I post above my second ever twitter picture taken from my berry. Technology advances. But I digress again.

Lara State stand handing out water and tangerines for free

The thing is truly impressive and if you ever have the chance to attend do not miss it. It is not that it is particular beatiful (it is not) or spectacular (it is but not in your usual ways), and yet it is something quite unique that can be seen only perhaps at La Guadalupe in Mexico or maybe some Hindu festivals and pilgrimage shrines. The atmosphere, you know.

Rooftop with tent party

It all starts early (I was awaken in the middle of the night by canticles of all sorts). At 8 AM the crowds already throng the Santa Rosa church (I did not go, watched all on TV until it became clear that the procession was reaching our neighborhood so we had to go get a viewing point). There is a well attended mass (with the who'swho of Venezuela politics, minus chavismo who limits itself to the local mayor Amalia Saez). Then at 11 AM the procession starts to cross all of Barquisimeto until it reaches the Cathedral where another mass is held around 6-7 PM. On the way the image stops in front a few churches where it faces them and is inclined in salutations. All very pagan if you ask me.

But if I am at the same time impressed and nonplussed, I cannot fail to observe the crowds, from rich to poor, from black to white, all are walking for hours in perhaps the biggest show of national unity that we can think of (La Chiquinquira and Virgen del Valle are rather local affairs even if well attended, and La Coromoto is simply too far from big cities for any good use). If more than one of you are driving you can make the round trip in the day, thus allowing maybe 2/3 of the Venezuelan population reasonable access, the more so when the 14th falls on a Saturday like this year.

La Pastora arriving, preceded by crossed penitents

There is no loud noise except for fireworks welcoming the image on occasion. There is no gaudy displays like at La Guadalupe though some will carry a cross and do it barefoot. All is peace and harmony, even crime taking a break. And better, there are so many people and business that must feel that they have sins to be forgiven that you have all sorts of stands along the way where bottles of water and fruits and even sorbets are given away for free (I put above one of the Lara state stands). The rather calm atmosphere still does not stop some to improvise subdued rooftop parties.

The arrival of La Pastora becomes of course the big moment wherever it catches you. In the picture in the right you can start to see on the left side the glass canopy and one of the penitent cross (they tend to show off as close from the venerated image as possible). And you can also thus appreciate the density then. Avenida Venezuela where I am standing has 4 central lanes with an island, and two extra islands which separate 2 more slow lanes and the parking areas. All is packed. I am not sure there were really 3 millions as organizer and TV claim, but I have been in enough gigantic marches in Caracas or Washington DC to tell you that this is the biggest one I have ever been and thus the million barrier is amply crossed and I am willing to believe that the 2 million one was also crossed. In my first short clip below I am standing in the isle and filming a panoramic so you can see the flow and the variety of believers walking. That video was at least 45 minutes before La Pastora arrived!

In the crowds of course celebrities are seen. I saw two. The first one was Lara's governor, Henri Falcon, but I was not ready and I could not take a picture (try to run to catch up in such a crowd). One thing I had plenty of time to notice: he was walking with at most a half dozen people, NONE looking like a body guard (though I am sure that a couple of them must have been). The thing is that the governor of Venezuela's 4th state walks the procession in full like anyone else, un-heckled, greeted and even welcomed by anyone in spite of his supposed betrayal of Chavez. People pointed out to me that neither the Barquisimeto mayor nor big chavista wigs dare to pull such stunts these days !!!! Another celebrity that I did catch was Leopoldo Lopez below, carrying on shoulders his daughter, and surrounded by a lot of admirers though also walking without body guards or even a tight group of folks. Another one that has no problem with the crowds.

Leopoldo Lopez and family (wife is the far white hat, I think)

But Lopez was not alone. I heard that Capriles and Arria also attended but Machado could not (but last years she was quite prominent at La Pastora). I could not check whether Perez went but I hope he did for his political sake. La Pastora is thus confirmed as a mandatory destination for any ambitious politician and I am sure that Chavez must be worried that he cannot attend any of these events anymore unless he commandeers the whole Basilica like he did in Guanare a few days ago....

But the crowds and the identification of the regime with "security forces" also give a bad taste to the whole thing. Indeed, some form of security is needed as the Madonna circulates least overzealous worshipers make it capsize (she is carried by hand all along the way by people fighting hard to be awarded the honor to carry her a few yards). Thus you see this sorry image a few instants before she crossed in front of where I stood, a see of drab olive green (imposed by our alliance with Cuba, by the way) parting the crowds.

La Pastora, surrounded by para-military and military.....

Below there is my second clip of the day, the moment the glass case of the venerated image walked in front of us. The sound is not too good, but try to pay attention and uses your imagination to perceive the "long live" and other vivats of the crowd as the image rolls by.

To close this post two little notes. First, one of the streets parallel to Avenida Venezuela. This last one is so crowded that the two parallel streets have a steady flow of folks going to the Cathedral of Barquisimeto (campanile in the horizon). And this picture I took at least one hour before La Pastora passed by a block lower.... note, by the way, the extensive aerial electric network....

Last but not least, an evangelical congregation house closed for business. On a Saturday afternoon these omnipresent places of worship and reunion are open but today they decided that it was not worth the aggravation. So at least one day a year in Barquisimeto the Catholic Church still carries the day.

"Local Evangelico" (click to enlarge like for all pictures)

PS: the other Marian stunt will be written tomorrow, about Maria Corina Machado calling Chavez a thief.

Correction: ALL Unidad candidates were at Barquisimeto today. On the late news I learned that even Pablo Median made the trek. The only candidates missing were the chavista ones.......

Hints of polls

2012-01-12T22:29:00.002-04:30

[UPDATE] This post may have been an early reaction to a cheap poll wars launched by HCR supporters through 2001 and Ultimas Noticias. Still, never having erased one of my posts I am not going to start now :)

What do you know? I was writing yesterday that the numbers were making Capriles Radonski an almost sure winner and today 2001 publishes that Consultores 21 and Datanilis see a comfortable victory for HCR. Of course, as usual, when things are so delicate, we only get the newspaper article, no real details on how the poll were made, etc, etc... so a grain of salt with the interpretation, will you please. Though we can now assume safely that unless HCR implodes, he will win next February. What is left to decide is the margin and who reaches second position since Consultores and Datanalisis are wildly different on this respect!

Consultores boldly gives HCR between 45 and 55 %. Apparently the poll was held the last days of December. So considering that we are barely in the second week of January it seems like a rapid survey, probably a phone one or something like that, quickly calculated. Valid still, even if it is made probably at the least politically significant week of the year, but not good enough for assessing a margin of victory, and even less to state that Perez has 16,8 Lopez 13,8 Machado 2,4. I love that the three get exact decimal and HCR gets a whooping range..... Memo to me: I have to learn to kill the inner scientist in me.

Datanalisis at least gives a decimal to all of them and right then and there I trust it better. Not to mention that its numbers look more rational. HCR is at 35,6 , followed by Lopez at 20,2 and 18,4 for Perez.

Conclusion: Arria, Machado and Medina are now out. It is too bad for Maria Corina Machado who this week gave the best TV performance in the Globovision series I mentioned earlier. She knows her stuff. She has real ideas, real programs that make sense and are away from wishful thinking, or the elaborate comeflorismo of HCR. She cares, or at least fakes it much better than the other (Arria does not pretend to care but his campaign has a different objective). Too bad, as the US has learned long ago, that primaries process do not yield the best candidate necessarily.... And as far as I am concerned Lopez and Machado are the best ones, the ones I would love to trust the country to. But what do I know? I am not a comeflor nor a chavista.....

Ps: reader EV brings up more annoying information and the whole thing is maybe a poll war between factions with meaningless leaks and I fell for them. Or the journalists who wrote that article is more of an ass as I thought before. We should also remember that 2001 may have endorsed Capriles, and that as of this typing no word on these numbers elsewhere.

Today's line on Venezuela comes from Shimon Peres, president of Israel

2012-01-12T22:04:00.000-04:30

Shimon Peres has been around a lot. Shimon Peres has had to deal with a lot of crap in his life. Many toads he kissed and none became human. So when he speaks about Chavez for a CNN interview as to Ahmadinejerk trip to the ALBA countries, he knows of what kind of character he is talking about. And he also shows that he is infinitely informed as to the events in the world (the Jewish world conspiracy at play I suppose, would say antizionists in the Chavez camp). The quote:

"It seems like a joke on history. To think that [Ahmadinejerk] is traveling to Simon Bolivar's nation is the biggest contradiction we can think of." and then
"[Chavez] maybe a good show on TV but Venezuela did not improve with him. Venezuela's economy is not better, people are not happier".

Bless you Shimon!

To this we can add the editorial on Correa in Ecuador from the Post as he is receiving Ahmadinejerk (TV showed an arranged support reception in front of Carondelet Palace who makes one wonder about the sanity of the Correa entourage...)

Predicting the unpredictable: the primaries result

2012-01-11T22:25:00.000-04:30

If in previous elections looking at historic trends could allow me to do some electoral predictions, for these primaries it is basically a useless task. And yet, who can resist?

In the past elections I kept doing better and better at predicting results getting to a rather amazing 69 seats for the opposition in 2010. But then the trends existed even if the CNE figures were not quite fully reliable (after all we are still waiting for the 2007 referendum final and complete result). This time around, since primaries are for president, governor and mayor, and since there is no consistency in who supports whom, it is simply impossible to do a prediction based on previous returns since almost at every circuit the parameters will be slightly different from next door circuit. Still, it is a worthy exercise in that I can decide from such a study that the only ones on paper that can win are Capriles or Perez. True, with one month of campaign left, implosion is still possible. But after almost two month of candidate vetting it seems unlikely that Capriles or Perez will collapse, though it is possible that Lopez will sneak into second place, beating Perez by a hairbreadth.

How did I reach such a conclusion. I will not worry you with the tables I built on Excel (not to mention that this being such a speculative venture I am in no mood to have a table done in good faith be slammed at me in a month from now). Thus you will only see a summary of my method and the results I got.

First I assumed that that the results of 2010 Latin american Parliament vote as given by the CNE are legit. Since those are the only ones nation wide to carry the political party symbols it is the best suggestion we have. And yet not complete since for example Convergencia did not post a card and thus trumped the Yaracuy results for my prediction (but Yaracuy being small, who cares really).

Second I divided the votes by region:
- Oriente: Nueva Esparta, Sucre, Anzoategui, Monagas and Bolivar (this last one because I think that for primaries it will behave roughly like the other states of the list)
- Llanos: Apure, Barinas, Portuguesa, Guarico and Cojedes (though I even questioned worrying about them because they are heavy chavista and the most likely to have the highest abstention).
- Occidente: Zulia, Tachira, Merida and Trujillo (Trujillo really does not matter much and the other ones together because in these three states UNT and COPEI will behave more predictably, simplifying my calculations).
- Centro: Falcon, Lara, Yaracuy and Carabobo (because Carabobo is the only state where Proyecto Venezuela is strong enough to make the difference and it goes for Lopez in theory)
- Caracas at large: Vargas, Libertador, Miranda and Aragua (because it is the stronghold of Primero Justicia)

In third I started giving abstention coefficients to each party according to each region. For example AD will have in general more voters absent from voting stations because it does not have its own candidate. However where AD has a strong candidate for a governor primary its abstention would be lower, benefiting Perez. Or PPT who I doubt that more than half of its voters will go and vote in a primary. These coefficients were at least 30% going up to 50%.

Then, the fourth parameter is an absolutely subjective coefficient on which party is more able to convince all of its voters to vote for the supported candidate. For example I have strong doubts that COPEI voters will follow massively Perez when their more natural fit would be Capriles, Machado or even Lopez. However UNT and PJ voters should be more consequent. Still, I gave every party a desertion coefficient of at least 10%, up to 60% in some states.

Finally I added all in four groups, Capriles, Perez, Lopez and "uncommitted" meaning a sum of small parties in the CNE result, the "unity" cards in those ballots (MIN and UNAPARVE) and other subjective criteria that I pleased to have (my blog, my criteria).

The results are as follow (all rounded up, of course)

Participation: in 2010: 5,1 million (5,6 with PPT and OPINA)
Participation in one month from today: 3,2 million

This is quite good if you ask me. In previous posts I wrote that anything above 2 million would be good and I think that we can make it to 3 million. Of course chavismo will consider anything that does not reach 50% of registered voters a disaster for the Unidad, but let them eat cake. Anything that reaches half the vote of normal elections is considered anywhere as a primary huge success. Note: in 2010 there were 17.5 million registered voters and an abstention of 34% with 11,3 million valid votes. So 3 million votes represent almost 30% of the voters and any number above that can only mean that chavistas have gone to vote in the primaries too.......... hence the campaign of discouragement that the regime is undertaking to make sure that participation will not go above the 2 million that they could still sort of explain.

I then give:
Capriles 993.000
Perez 1.195.000
Lopez 279.000
Uncommitted 695.000

On paper Perez is winning but all polls so far give Capriles ahead. Thus I am wrong in estimating the loyalty to Perez of AD and Copei voters (even some UNT who would have preferred Rosales). Also my uncommitted number might be too high as many may have migrated to Capriles already. Thus in all subjectivity I am passing 100.000 to Capriles from Perez and 50.000 from uncommitted.

Capriles 1.143.000
Perez 1.095.000
Lopez 279.000
Uncommitted 645.000

And lo'and behold, we do sort of get the latest complete poll we had in October! 30% Capriles, 25% Perez and the rest, the rest, with Lopez ahead of the pack.

From this exercise we can see that Lopez is too far behind on paper, and political parties loyalty, to overcome the lead or Perez and Capriles. Even if the 645.000 were to go all to him he would still not reach the million votes and at best could only challenge for second position. And in the 645.000 we can be certain that Medina will get at the very least 50.000, Arria 100.000 and Machado 150.000 (though each one is supposed to get at least 200.000 from the people that signed for their candidature).

However my gut feeling does not give me these numbers. I think that Capriles and Perez will indeed not go much above 1.000.000 each because their campaign is not attracting the hard core opposition and chavista will vote for them in October but not necessarily this time around, too afraid of being caught voting in the primaries at work or at the mision. In other words they are at their peak already and their campaign playing it safe, I do not think they can grow much (though the Perez campaign seems suddenly more reactive, having endorsed today the no-re-election policy and the Unity card for October, very popular issues among hard core opposition).

The ones that are motivating the hard core opposition voters are Lopez, Machado and Arria and they will bring possibly an extra 500.000 votes to the 3 million I calculated, and split it among themselves. So these three may have as much as 1,4 million votes to share, making a surprise victory by one of them a possibility if either Capriles or Perez make some significant faux-pas in the next 4 weeks. Though in all conscience I doubt that at this point Capriles can lose unless Perez manages to revive dramatically.

AGAIN: this is not an official prediction, it is at best an educated gut feeling on how the electoral base for the campaign moves. And with 4 more weeks to go. It is a mere starting point for the trends to come, illustrating the challenge for each candidate. I will refine this model and include polls as they come available and as I know more about some local governor races of influence (Miranda and Anzoategui in particular). Then, and only then, may I dare make a prediction.

And back to the salt mines: the campaign starts this week, really!

2012-01-10T14:36:00.000-04:30

The December lull is gone. As usual Chavez used the time to make lots of noise (naming Diosdado, naming Rangel Silva, threatening this and that) but the opposition this time did not have to reply as it was busy doing the door to door thing instead of wasting time in public rhetoric. All good things however come to an end and this week politicians of all stripes are returning to the newspaper and talk shows. Thus it is time for a general update.

The opposition

Since all the real action and drama is within chavismo, puzzlingly the opposition with 6 primary candidates look almost restful, so let's start with them.

They all did their homework through the holidays and left Chavez own words damn him. Though they were not totally away from the limelight as they lent themselves to the silliness of the "Buenas Noches" talk show of Globovision at 10 PM. I did not watch any of it because it is a bling-bling show and because I cannot stand Kico or Carla while they do not let the only worthy member of the trio, Carreño, figure as much as he should. The man, a fashion chronicler writer is in fact one of the most perceptive journalists around, if you ask me. But I digress.

The first week of January, the deadliest one of the year, nothing happened and the airwaves were for Chavez, and bloggers criticizing him. This week Globovision started a new series of shows, with a real debate that is not a debate. In short: they taped on the same day the 6 candidates with more or less the same questions and without the other ones knowing what the heck they replied. And they are playing these shows everynight at 8 PM starting last night with Diego Arria. I suppose the format is better in that you do get to see the candidate more in depth than the previous "debates", and Chuo Torrealba seems up to the job.

Arria was good but without any pretense, almost sounding already the elder statesman resigned to his upcoming electoral defeat and positioning himself as the "indispensable" man for the campaign and foreign secretary seat. Of course, he would not say so but his language and body language implied it: his objective is to try to reach 10%, but a solid, values based 10% that cannot be ignored February 13. I truly wish him well because with a 10% show he is still around and preserves his chances if suddenly the plans change(Chavez croaking, for example, and suspending the October vote, ushering a transition of sorts).

The surprise comes from Pablo Perez who apparently did not show up for the taping even though he was warned in advance. Globo does not mention it but my sources inside one of the campaigns tell me so. Maybe Globo will give him "special" treatment? At any rate it is not surprising because the poor guy is facing a public transport strike in Maracaibo and in polls he is having a tough time to keep in second position as I understand Lopez is now fighting him hard for that spot. Then again another source put Lopez in 4th, behind Machado. I would believe more the fight for 2nd place because, let's face it, the campaign of Perez is less than stellar and his people have found a need to launch a mision of their own to rescue Perez, mision "Victoria Total". At least Perez did a good thing this week: he went out to condemn relations with countries that do not respect human rights, sort of leaving Capriles alone in not condemning things like Ahmadinejerk visit in Caracas.

The thing is that by now we should be getting new reliable surveys but we are not, except for two for Miranda state published over the week end in El Universal (one and two). No surprises, Capriles seems to be leading the state into remaining in Primero Justicia grasp with Ocariz leading more than expected ex-governor Mendoza and Caldera almost a shoo in for Sucre, Easter Caracas. This makes me wonder about the actual lead of Capriles, if it is not based a little bit too much in Miranda and Aragua polling... But more on that in another post to come later this week.

Medina is unheard of and Machado keeps working hard as if nothing, so we give her a bonus point for stamina and dedication. El Nacional had three experts discussing the six candidates (subscription only). In their opinion it would seem that Perez is doing better image wise, if I understand well, but there is really no major difference between Capriles, Perez and Lopez as to their plus and minus sum. Leading us to speculate that one month of campaign left could have an effect on the rankings. However the three experts seem to agree in that in spite of their virtues the other three candidates do not have what it takes at this point to become real challengers.

Chavismo

Here, as we say in Venezuela, "la procesion va por dentro". Loosely meaning that there is no public displays but that does not mean that things are not difficult inside.

The problem of chavismo is that they do not know how long is left for their leader and succession wars seem to have taken the best of it, and may be actually settled provisionally. There is a dangerous price for chavismo in these maneuvering because to date they have officially named no candidate for governor and mayor whereas the opposition is holding its primaries in a month. The contrast is glaring and damaging, the more so that organizing a PSUV primary is becoming quite difficult in the remaining time if they want to avoid an internal battle that could damage further Chavez chances in October. In other words the disease of Chavez is exposing the less democratic spirit inside the PSUV, forcing it to gamble it all on a Chavez victory in October so whomever he appoints for local candidates will be elected anyway. I think that even chavismo is past this type of politics now.

But is that strategy even viable? No, I do not think so and Chavez recent appointments seem to indicate that chavismo has a Titanic kind of feeling and that mision SOS has started. What chavismo should do is hold primaries in March and set a body politic ready to step in if Chavez were to falter. But the autocrat understands that such a move could threaten his grasp on power if he were to find a cure and as any good sociopath he prefers to take everything down with him if he cannot have his way. Leaving remedial steps for later if he has again a chance to do so.

It is this way that we must understand the moves to name Diosdado and Rangel Silva. It was kind of a palace coup if you ask me. Chavez had to chose between the "civilian" ideological wing of the PSUV, the one led by Maduro, Jaua and Isturiz, supported by Cuba, and the pragmatic side of the PSUV willing to do the dirty work to reelect Chavez but decided to strike on its own if Chavez gets sicker or loses in October. It seems that fear of the military has forced Chavez to chose Diosdado and Rangel Silva. These two characters have a lot to lose if Chavez loses power but they are also the ones that can build enough strength to force the opposition to negotiate with them, the more so if a weakling like Capriles is elected president. In other words it is "I tried to screw you up as much as I could but you won anyway. OK, now I am giving you Miraflores but my property is mine [Diosdado] and you will pass me to honorable retirement and do not pursue me in court [Rangel Silva]. Though if you want to bring a few ones down I will not stop you [if they come from the ideologues like Ramirez who is a perfect scapegoat]. We got a deal or we are going to have a civil war?". It is important to note here that neither Diosdado or Rangel Silva on their own control or can control the military. But together they may go a long way to that effect. The military after all do not want to kill civilians, do not want to lose their privileges and would like to have a country less dysfunctional where they can enjoy themselves better. The Diosdado faction allied with the drug trafficking faction could give it to the military, you know.

Now you can understand better the nature of chavismo campaign strategy starting this week: money, and more money thrown to buy votes, cheating, and more cheating, and if it does not work, negotiation with the opposition so that at least a portion of chavismo saves its ill acquired goodies. Chavez knows the new game but will he play? That is the question...........

The mysterious case of the expelled Miami Consul

2012-01-10T14:33:00.000-04:30

Really, the expulsion of Venezuela's consul in Miami is very simple to explain. The expelled consul was an agent double, that is, in XXI century socialism parlance, a Venezuelan paid by Venezuela but also a Cuban agent. Except that Venezuela apparently did not know how infiltrated its foreign service was by the Cuban G2, basically realizing that now Venezuela does and pays for the dirty job that Cuba needs to be doing, like sabotaging the US, monitoring the Cuban (and now Venezuelan) exile in Miami, etc... Hence the delay in the Venezuelan response to something that normally should have been an immediate screaming scene against Washington. After all, even Maduro must have been aghast at the chutzpah of the G2 in high-jacking the missions in Mexico and Caracas where sweet Livia worked...

The 2011 post (kind of late, no?)

2012-01-09T12:36:00.000-04:30

And you thought you would escape a reflection on the year past. But then again for once all was clear so why elaborate much?

Is there anything to discuss on the importance of the "Arab Spring" as to what will happen to us while they try to digest the conservative religious wave making its way to power through elections? This "revolution" is here with us for decades. We better get used to it soon.

Is there anything to discuss on the importance of Fukushima? Conjugating the nuclear disaster of Japan and the economic crisis will be haunting us for decades too, as we deal with the transition from cheap oil energy to more expensive and dangerous or not energies.

Is there anything else worth noting from last year? Thus I will give you below for me what was the main salient point for Venezuela in 2011.
It was the year we learned how miserable a country we really are, not only from the chavista side but also quite a lot from the opposition side too. It was the year when we finally understood that we are getting what we deserve.

This happened:

Chavez got sick and the regime was able to hide everything and no one really protested as it should be
PDVSA was accused of dealing with Iran in spite of UN sanctions and opposition politicians (such as Henrique Capriles Radonski) went knee-jerk to defend PDVSA
Corruption kept showing examples and the opposition preferred to focus on placating chavismo sensibilities
Chavez supported repeatedly the murderers of Syria and Lybia and I am yet to see a chavista defecting on that matter (the opposition reaction to that was rather bland if you ask me).
And more along those lines......

At least this year starts better in that three of the opposition candidates have condemned the visit of Ahmadinejerk starting today in Caracas. But no word from HCR or PP on that matter, at this typing. And forget about any chavista condemning a regime which has executed hundreds last year, which stones women, etc, etc....

And this IS THE BIG NEWS of 2011 for Venezuela. The country confirmed that it has no use for ethics

Why the f..k am I bothering blogging, worrying about ethics?

Chavez at our Lady of Coromoto: an essay on moral turpitude, part 2

2012-01-08T00:09:00.004-04:30

In philosophy or ethics we can discuss morality, immorality and amorality. Immorality implies knowledge of morality and thus the possibility of sin and repentance (even if it rarely happens). Amorality may imply ignorance of morality whatsoever, or the outright rejection of the concept of sin (and hence repentance). When I look again at the videos of Friday's visit of Chavez to the shrine of our Lady of Coromoto I am at a loss as to what to use for Chavez, immorality or amorality; or perhaps look into coining a new term to express what I am about to show you (though the simpler term "circus show" could also be quite acceptable).

In the preceding post I tried to illustrate how the pro-Chavez culture has robbed its followers of free will making them a flock of luxury beggars, and/or desperate ones. In this text, which follows Chavez once he entered inside the Basilica of our Lady of Coromoto, I am going to try to let you understand how low chavismo has gone to the point of making blunt politics with religion and faith, while INSIDE the most sacred of our shrines. If the previous post needed no translation of the sound track, this will require some. Still, they are still quite short, at a minute and a half at most. Commentary starts after the video image.

This shot is a few minutes after Chavez entered the sanctuary, which is decorated at the altar with the huge flags of the Vatican and Venezuela (you will see them in a following video). Although at all time we will hear crowds during the cadena we never see them in full, just close ups. There are at least three priests welcoming Chavez, and a choir near the altar singing all sorts of things from middle age monastic responses to more modern stuff as at some point the audience and Chavez are treated to a brief concert.

Our Lady of Coromoto

But back to this video. What you see there is the mother of Hugo Chavez, making a P.D.A. of sorts in front of the reliquary that holds a statue of Lady of Coromoto and the Baby Jesus. Note that the woman has quite a few jewelry and bangs on her.

What is interesting in this segment is the soundtrack. The media folks are interviewing some woman from the "consejo comunal", the communal council who are supposed to be the backbone of chavismo. They sure enough picked someone with a "tierrúo" enough accent, that is as popular as possible but still quite understandable to all, from me to the rankest and filest of chavistas. Her intervention starts at second 4 and the highlight of what she says:
"Le pedimos a dios todopoderoso que, que, su sanacion sea efectiva que ya el esta sano esta declarado sano. Entonces nosotros, en nombre de los consejos comunales y en nombre del poder popular que esta relegado [sic?] aqui trabajando hondamente con el gobernador del estado y con, con la revolucion que tenemos aqui un gran presidente que se ha preocupado por los humildes, se ha preocupado por los niños, por los ancianos, todos "
We ask God almighty that, that, his cure be done 'cause he is already healthy he is declared healthy. Thus we, in the name of the communal councils and in the name of the Popular Power which relegated [delegated?] here working deeply with the governor of the state and with, with the revolution that we have [got] a great president that has worried for the lowly, that has worried for the children, for the elderly, all.

Observe that her speech is not polished (she was chosen on purpose, she is not faking it, and yet understandable) and that she makes sure to quote the essential of Chavez reelection program, namely the Popular Power and the misiones recently relaunched, ignoring that nothing was done in 12 years, and that these recent misiones are just remake for the second or third time of previous misiones from 2003 and 2006.

That is what you call a well oiled propaganda machinery which main purpose is to create a class difference.

This video is shorter to comment. First there is a blessing from the main priest (I really do not care who is it so no name searched but I am sure that the Catholic hierarchy will have its say somewhere). And then Chavez places a rosary on the image of the Virgin!!!!!!!! A rosary!!!! At which point a big applause breaks which suggests to me that there must be a TV screen somewhere for people to follow. You can hear in the background "celestial" music.

Now, you may remain stuck on the pagano-religio-ridiculo aspect of the scene but you would be wrong.

First, Chavez has decided to play at the Catholic Church level and hunt for its votes, trying to neutralize it for the next election. For somebody who has demonized the Catholic hierarchy, there cannot be any bigger reversal but to come to Coromoto with as rosary, the symbol of old church goers (think about the mision he just re-launched for the elderly). This is XXI century tropical Canossa.

But in second there is also a major gamble from his part. For years Chavez attacks on the Catholic church were interpreted (wrongly) by the evangelical movement of Venezuela (20%?) as an indirect support. For Chavez to do the rosary scene means that he either takes now for granted the evangelical vote (more worried about rivalry with the Catholic church than moral issues like in the US, this being Venezuela after all) or that he is giving it up. Because you can trust me on that one, if this image circulates among the Evangelicals of Venezuela, he is going to lose votes, many votes.

And we come to the last but not least part of this series of 9 videos.

Chavez uses the sanctuary of Our Lady of Coromoto to make a political speech. He starts by asking the permission to the padre but does not wait for it, not even pretends to look toward the padre.

In this video you will see how he calls to the pulpit the three major political forces of the area after himself (governors or ex governors of Barinas, Lara and Portuguesa), at second 20. All running for office in December, by the way.

And then he calls Rangel Silva at second 22. He announces at second 55 that he appoints Rangel Silva as the new minister of defense, asking for the blessing and protection of the Virgin (1 minute and 11 seconds). Rangel Silva being, for memory, the general accused by the US of drug trafficking, the general that announced he would not accept an electoral result unfavorable to Chavez.

I do not know about you but such a political act in a major Catholic Sanctuary is profanation, and it is an agnostic who is writing this. Be it a Mosque, a Synagogue, a Temple, a Church or a Pagoda, the only speech one can ever do there, and on very counted circumstances, is on religious matters of tolerance, brotherhood and the like. NEVER to ask the deity to protect you and your goons. Will the Venezuelan Catholic church reply?

Notes:
- Tal Cual makes fun of this by wondering whether it is the Lady of Coromoto or Jose Greogorio Hernandez who cured Chavez.

- Tal Cual also suggests that the main priest of the Basilica seemed to be surprised by Chavez daring to touch the statue of the Virgin and pout a Rosary. That would make sense because it is hard to believe that the Church would willingly have allowed all what Chavez did Friday evening.

- Apparently, at this point, the national press does not seem as offended as I am by last night pathetic show. But El Pais in Spain noticed and used the words of Chavez asking for the Virgin's blessing to highlight their note on the matter.

Chavez at our Lady of Coromoto: an essay on the grotesque, part 1

2012-01-07T14:29:00.000-04:30

Yesterday's Chavez cadena from the Coromoto Basilica in Guanare must have marked a new level in the grotesque, comparable today only with the funeral in North Korea, all proportions guarded, keeping in mind that these are the tropics, after all. But the levels in the grotesque and cynicism are quite up there, trust me.

Or if you do not trust me you can always watch this video assay which consists on 9 videos split in two parts.

They were filmed on my camera from my TV screen. The first six ones are short affairs, less than 30 seconds all, of a few highlights of Chavez making his entrance in the Lady of Coromoto Sanctuary, the virgin patron of Venezuela (like the Guadalupe in Mexico to give you an idea though the Guadalupe is a much bigger affair than the Coromoto who has steep competition from La Pastora and La Chiquinquira).

In these short videos I am focusing on displaying the beggar culture of Venezuela which has been developed beyond limits under Chavez. It is a strange mix of personality cult and projection of the reality that Chavez is the lone giver of this country. But as you will see in these videos there is a price to pay for the whole thing, besides the grotesque. The next three more "political" videos are longer and will be discussed in part 2 tomorrow. Comments on the video are below the video.

In this one, not that telling in a way, you will observe Chavez picking up a piece of paper, a petition for some favor, from someone below the balustrade that leads to the Basilica (that you will see at the end a rather ugly concrete affair). you can see the paper in his right hand at 8 seconds.

NOTE AND REMINDER: all of this is taken during a cadena. For those who are just reaching this blog and do not know what is a cadena, it is a MANDATORY broadcasting ON ALL TV AND RADIO networks of the country, SIMULTANEOUSLY, for AS LONG AS THE GOVERNMENT WISHES IT so. What you will see and hear in these videos took about 15 minutes without any clear message, without any interest for the country. The whole exercise was pro Chaevz propaganda on a personal matter of his, wishing, we are told, to thanks the Virgin for curing him from his June Cancer. No one, of course, has any right to reply on any state owned TV or radio, and few of the privates one will dare to offer you a right to reply and criticize Chavez for such an abuse.

This second video starts a few seconds after the first one and in it Chavez pulls up a little girl recklessly passed to him by her father. There is no way to know at this point whether this was arranged or spontaneous but we can all agree on what a dangerous operation this was for the little girl since had Chavez missed his grasp (he is in recovery after all) she would have fallen from three time her own height. Then again Chavez may have wanted to show that he is strong again? Inexcusable no matter what.

In addition it is forbidden by the law to use children in any political activity. But as all laws in Venezuela they apply to everyone but Chavez. That law, by the way, LOPNA, was voted under Chavez so he could not pledge ignorance.

Yet the move was clearly reckless and dangerous even for his entourage. One of his body guards/helpers is seen rolling his eyes in disbelief at second 19.

Notes: at second 12 a little boy running that we shall see in next video; the guy in grey shirt and grey hair is the governor of Portuguesa state where the "ceremony" is held.

I do not know whether the little girl in the preceding and this video was coached in asking Chavez for something for her familiy, though I am willing to bet my life on it. But in this video you can clearly see the mother holding the kid that was runnign before trying to catch the attention of Chavez and this one bothered wanting to know who is behind and why can't they control her until her turn comes. Poking is thy name.

I know and understand that Chavez is kind of a rock star for these people but you must admit with me that the level of grotesque is starting to become bothersome. I mean, the woman is even chewing gum!

Note: there is no point in commenting the sound track as the speaker rambles about how loving Chavez is. Allow me to spare you that additional embarrassment for those whose Spanish is zero.

In this next video there will be no further doubt as to the culture of beggary that Chavez has reinforced within his followers (and maybe outside if you want my opinion). "Lambucios" we call them in Venezuela, those that are ready to do anything for a free lunch, hardly any better than my dog haunting me always in my kitchen.

Here, as Chavez finally left the balustrade and the kids he grabbed, he walks toward the basilica entrance and he is intercepted by a woman, with the appropriate red shirt, political slogan included. Quick enough she slips in one that you can see at second 8.

Note: you can read in the banner "ceremony of the [sacred] word in Thanksgiving in front of our Lady of Coromoto".

In this video we are really talking business. There must be quite a despair in the humble classes who have placed their faith in Chavez 12 years ago! At second 7 there is a man in a blue shirt, rushing to Chavez, waving a big piece of paper to make sure all know what he is going to do, hoping I suppose to avoid a harsh reaction from the body guards. But he fails, and in front of this unexpected action as Chavez was getting ready to speak to the crowd the camera switches fast to the front entrance of the Basilica least we see more of the roughing up of that desperate man. It is a live broadcast, after all.

Think about this, 5 petitions recorded on camera in barely 10 minutes, allowing us to wonder how many more were not recorded......

Note: I do not think the man was dangerous. Entry to this sort of Chavez activity is restricted to the faithful; and those who have a chance to get near, accidentally or not, are searched, or scanned or something. Of course, Chavez needs his body guards, but he is more in danger of having petitions stuffed down his throat than any real attempt against his life.

This last video has Chavez already inside the basilica. Incredibly in the surrounding hysteria someone hands him over a baby strictly in diaper. The baby seems to be crying, at least on TV, the camera not picking up the sound as well.

This is not only dangerous for the baby that could fall and be trampled, but I would even suggest child abuse for the mere fact of holding a quasi naked baby in such an event where heat, humidity, danger, discomfort make the poor creature miserable. And of course, yet another violation of the LOPNA law on the use of children for political activities.

Notes: you can also see there people with papers in hands (one in this segment at second 16) ; the speaker was mentioning Kirchner and Lula, reviving mildly the suggestions of Chavez as to these cancers being provoked (though Kirchner today came clear from malignant cells after her surgery, another slap to Chavez conspiracy theories).

------

So there you have it, your own material evidence to make your own conclusions as to how Chavez has created a society of dependency on purpose. And as we saw with the crying folks in Pyongyang, it comes with its heavy does of ridicule and circus quality grotesque.

And this is corruption, by the way, of the crassest form, creating the impression that some are beyond the pale of the law; and that you must get close to them for your lone hope for salvation.

URGENT! Narco general Rangel Silva becomes defense minister

2012-01-06T20:23:00.000-04:30

Not that it is a real surprise but Rangel Silva has been appointed a few minutes ago defense minister, of all places during a religious ceremony at the Basilica of La Coromoto, Venezuela's patron Virgin. although it is in the pattern of naming Diosdado at the National Assembly, that appointment of Rangel Silva is considerably more important. Let's see why:

First, Rangel Silva is the general that said a few months ago that the Venezuelan Army would not recognize a president elected against Chavez. That is, just for that simple sentence he should have been fired, or send to retirement or at the very least fined. Instead today he becomes Defense Minister of Venezuela, the one that will be supervising the October elections which are monitored by the army (a defense minster usually lasts between 1 to two years in office, traditionally).

Second, Rangel Silva has been accused of being associated with diverse drug trafficking rings, even by the US, something that already EFE and ABC remind folks in Spain. Thus, the very least we can say is that his reputation is questionable and that his good name should have been cleared before such an appointment, and cleared not only because "Chavez said so". For example a detailed retraction of Makled could have helped.

Thus, what is the message here?

Chavez is weak and needs to project force and determination. Thus he names unpalatable people in high offices, people who in an after Chavez would have a lot to lose and thus have today a lot to gain, or to preserve as the case may be, in supporting Chavez no matter what.

In other words, if you are corrupt, if you do dirty business, if you are intolerant, if you are undemocratic, if you are [fill in negative epithet of your choice] you will be praised and compensated as long as you do all of that in the name of Chavez.

The target is the military who may think that Chavez time may have run out, those bolibourgeois oligarchs who think that maybe financing the opposition campaigns may help them retain their newly acquired fortunes.

Of course, this is not a message to gain votes, Chavez is now beyond that. The message is to scare chavistas to shape up and put up. But it also has an intended effect with the opposition, to dishearten it. Indeed, what is the use to campaign for the election if Chavez has all these thugs that are going to make electoral fraud; and beat you up if needed?

UPDATE: Miguel has not covered that issue yet but he tweets. Here are the two links he gave: one referring to Rangel Silva when he was offering money to Antonini (the 800,000 USD luggage, remember?) and the other is the official US communication as to Rangel Silva being in the shit list.

So there, you know that crime pays in Venezuela.

UPDATE 2: Diego Arria did write a letter to Rangel Silva two years ago. There is no excuse, this appointment is a deliberate strategy of Chavez.

A little bit of the amusing fallout from the swearing in of Diosdado Cabello

2012-01-06T00:03:00.002-04:30

[UPDATED]
As expected, such a controversial nomination could not go un-commented. But first let me point out an article in El Universal from Luis Salamanca which alludes to many of the stuff I wrote this morning. In short, that designation is all about who would replace Chavez if worse comes to worse and Diosdado for all of his faults, and they are big, is an alliance of the military and the nouveau riche of the regime (same difference it would seem now that I think of it). We all know that such an alliance is the best guarantee of "stability". In quote for lack of a better word.

This being said we can visit, oh, say the Maria Corina Machado reaction who as a representative was attending the "ceremony", in quote again for obvious reasons. What was interesting in her presentation is that even though she will not win next February she was the official response from the opposition of the awful words of Diosdado during the day. That is, it was a personal rebuke to Diosdado insinuations that the primaries were about to collapse, showing visible proof that this was not the case. In other words: it was a "we are ready for you".

The other notable reaction was also from a presidential candidate, Capriles Radonski, on his twitter that called Diosdado a thief, advising people at the assembly to hold their wallets tight. Think about it for a second, a presidential candidate calling openly, bluntly, the newly "elected" National Assembly president a thief (again, sorry for that unavoidable use of words in quote marks).

@hcaprilesHenrique Capriles R.

Tengan cuidado los Diputados de la AN con ese Pdte que eligieron,no sea que pierdan la cartera!Este país clama por un cambio!

11 hours ago via UberSocial for BlackBerryFavorite Retweet Repl

And he goes one further by stating that many of the PSUV seats where "forced" to vote for Diosdado.

@hcaprilesHenrique Capriles R.

Se que muchos Diputados del partido de Gob(así me han dicho)no están de acuerdo con ese personaje corrupto y mafioso que les impusieron

11 hours ago via UberSocial for BlackBerryFavorite Retweet Reply

It sure will be quite interesting if Capriles manages to beat Chavez in October when he sends his first legislative proposal to Diosdado....

PS: It is worth reminding readers that Diosdado Cabello has a huge dossier submitted to the Prosecutor's office as to his tenure in Miranda State for the period 2004-2008 (including a huge collection of personal cars, vanishing budgets, etc...). Justice being tightly controlled by the regime that dossier and the investigation that should follow some of the very obvious evidence has been stalled, allowing Diosdado to become the new speaker. Meanwhile any opposition mayor or governor who takes a paper clip at home because it got entangled in its clothes is investigated to the 7th generation and barred from running for public office if possible.
------------------

Update. As an additional reaction, it is worth citing two articles from the Economist which we must consider seriously as it is doubtful they would publish such things without getting some form of double crossing of their references.

The first one discuss the rise of Cabello as it being influenced or imposed by the military of Venezuela who want someone THEY can talk to, not some silly civilian or even worse, and ideologue civilian. The Economist and yours truly thus concur on what is rather obvious for anyone following Venezuelan politics. No genius needed there. (To which I may add my recurring theme of Venezuela's regime being a reactionary one, harking back to our military past of caudillos and conspiracies as our natural Arcadia).

By putting the party machine in the hands of Mr Cabello, Mr Chávez has signalled his reliance on the military wing of his movement. Mr Cabello’s army contemporaries have risen to be generals or senior colonels, holding key troop commands. Nobody, not even the president, understands politics, the armed forces and the business world, and the way they interact, better than Mr Cabello. That makes him both a crucial ally and also a potential threat to Mr Chávez.

The second one is about Chavez disease that the Economist think is not over. The reason? the secrecy around it, of course.

More tales from the crypt: Diosdado Cabello returns

2012-01-05T09:25:00.001-04:30

Today the surprise is the official return of Diosdado Cabello to the forefront as the plum political job of presiding the National Assembly becomes his. True, in December he was promoted back to the direction of the PSUV but from there to reign at the Assembly?

Diosdado Cabello has never been too far from these pages, from the description of his newly acquired wealth and power to his "triumvirate" position with Chavez and Chacon. If it seems that Jesse Chacon is definitely out as his brother still lingers in jail while himself has been downgraded to official pollster of the regime, it also seems that Chavez has not been able to get rid of Diosdado Cabello. From here deciding whether the fight continues is not possible but what we can surmise is that the disease of Chavez and the ability of Diosdado to retain a power quota (he managed to have quite a few of his unconditional win the "PSUV primaries" for the legislative elections of 2010, including his wife) have conspired to this renewed burst of realpolitik.

For all the tales of succession Chavez has no real heir because as a good autocrat he has always been more concerned about cutting down to size new promising talent than promoting it. Thus only reckless and ruhtless operators like Diosdado have a chance of surviving. And now that Chavez is sick and that there is a need to have someone at hand to avoid a feared collapse of the regime, Chavez is placed with the unappetizing bite of having to revive one of the triumvirate legs. Chavez still has moves to avoid a full rebirth of Diosdado: for example he has yet to appoint a new vice-president that could quickly become a counter balance to Diosdado. But that would not be a new triumvirate because the previous one was born of common necessity while right now any vice-president Chavez names will be seen automatically as a natural rival of Diosdado.

What does this all mean in practical terms? It all depends if Chavez indeed wants Diosdado to be a potential successor (and thus acknowledging his own novel political weakness).

If Chavez is indeed weakening and that there is a doubt as his ability to run in October then Diosdado is a natural candidate, together with whomever Chavez names to replace Jaua at the Vice-presidency. That way Chavez will still have a choice of sorts when the time comes. Besides, currently Diosdado has his uses as the campaign develops: no one inside of chavismo has the chutzpah to bully, insult, and violate the rights of the opposition as Diosdado does. His actions and speeches in the National Assembly since he was elected to it a year ago have made him one of the most despicable characters to haunt its hallways. We should not be surprised of course, Diosdado is a very corrupt military and thus the kind of folks least able to understand any shade of meaning in words such as "democracy" or "ethics". From his new position we can expected an even bolder jerk, if possible.

But if Chavez is feeling healthy enough the promotion of Diosdado might just be a trick to get rid of him once and for all after October 7. For example Chavez can use Diosdado to do all of the dirty work that he should not do during the campaign, such attending rallies to insult the opposition candidates since it is clear that Chavez campaign this time around will be much more on TV than on the stump. It would be a classical example of giving him rope so Diosdado can hang himself. It could work if Chavez manages a convincing reelection and if he has time to groom a counter balance to Diosdado, today the lone faction of the PSUV with some real power now that the presumptive heir Maduro has been evicted to Carabobo state where he is likely to disappear along his clan (Cilia Flores, defenestrated from her Assembly position, and other civilians that have been filling up the graveyard of chavismo leaving mostly militaries in charge everywhere).

We will see soon enough.

Flip-flop-flipping around happily...

2012-01-04T23:30:00.000-04:30

I am still not ready to come back, enjoying too much a blog distancing (and life distancing, for that matter), but I cannot resist to report on this latest hat-trick-that-wasn't from the regime.

See, on February 12 the Unidad will hold its primaries to decide its candidates for the election rounds starting October 7. But that day also sort of coincides with the Battle of La Victoria which is one that chavismo likes to celebrate even if it is not a real national holiday. But the battle marks the bravura and self sacrifice of a few young Venezuelans during the Independence wars and for a military regime like the one of Chavez it is irresistible to pass on any linking real youth (meaning revolutionary youth) with any military activities. So the ineffable youth minister, Mari Pili Hernandez, announced that the real Venezuelan Youth will be discussing the Bolivar plan for the next eon and submit their thoughts to Chavez on Youth Day. How much more Castro Cuban can you be? Really..... And this would have been accompanied by a large rally in Caracas on, you guessed it, February 12 while the opposition tries to vote (traffic jams, scare tactics, SA like salutes, etc, etc...). Never mind that historically the celebrations are in Maracay/La Victoria and not Caracas.

Sure enough the opposition was quick in pointing the flaws and the threats and the admission of weakness from chavismo trying to distract in any silly way it can from the primaries. Some within chavismo realized that it was a political blunder, a silly game of "mine is bigger" that they could only lose. So Hernandez backtracked and Chavez said that they did not want to distract the eyes of the country as to his predicted opposition poor showing.

But in the same breath he also said that nothing was changed, that he did not know what Hernandez was up to and that La Victoria was always the seat of the activities on February 12. A strange flip back after the flip-flop.

What to make of that? That the regime is getting worried sick about the Unidad primaries, that it is realizing, belatedly, that they will be held, that a clear winner may emerge in the end. There is no hidden message in Diosdado Cabello "prediction" that the primaries will be cancelled, or that Hernandez wanted to create a distraction if anything to keep a few people from voting by forcing them to march for the regime. They are worried and are at a loss as to what to do to hide them or make them disappear.

Actually Chavez betrayed his worried subconscious by revealing that his information is that no more than 20% of the country would vote and thus the primary will be a failure. In fact 20% turnout for a primary is EXCELLENT anywhere in the world, and the more so in Venezuela where Chavez claims that more than 60% of the people are with him, and we must presume unwilling to vote in an opposition primary. In fact, if 20% of people actually vote in February it may mean that already 40% of us are ready to vote against Chavez and with the usual 30% abstention, well, that leaves 30% for Chavez in October...... Even though I shall add a "caveat emptor" as electoral history of primaries tend to say that the primary vote is never even half of the final vote count.

Patente de corso para Chavez

2012-01-01T16:41:00.000-04:30

Patente a Surcouf, siglo XVIII

El año empieza bien para Hugo: ahora sabe que puede nacionalizar y robarse lo que el da la gana. En Venezuela con venezolanos ya no paga un carajo y con empresas extranjeras el costo va a ser bien bajo. Como a el la plata no le duele, que le importa si le tiene que pagar unos 900 milloncejos de dolares a Exxon/Mobil cuando en algún momento el propio alcahuete-ladrón mayor en PDVSA decía que no iba a pagar mas de 2500 millones. Si siguen así ni 1500 millones pagarán una vez que se juzgue lo de la Conoco, y eso si es que pagan porque una cosa es perder un juicio o arbitraje y otra es cumplirlo. De este punto de vista a Hugo no le importa nada de nada, ni la corte Interamericana ni cualquier arbitraje comercial.

¿Sera que nos alegraremos que Venezuela vaya a pagar menos por las fechorías de Hugo? ¡Para nada! Eso es mas plata que ellos se van a poder robar, o repartir para comprar votos (después de cobrar la comisión adecuada por comprar y repartir linea blanca).

Vamos a pensar bien y decir que el arbitraje que no le favoreció mucho a la Exxon/Mobil le devuelva en verdad, digamos, 1,000 millones a Hugo. ¿Que va a hacer el con esa plata? Digamos que una casa popular modesta cuesta 50,000 dolares. ¿Alguno de mis lectores piensa en verdad que se construirán 20,000 casas mas en el 2012? ¿Sera que con eso le alcanza a terminar un par de estaciones de metro en Maracaibo o Valencia?

Cáiganse de esa mata: parte de la plata que escondían para pagar algo de esos arbitrajes (lo suficiente para que esa gente no joda durante la campaña del 2012 y después pa'l carajo con ellos) será gastada en lavadoras y neveras que le van a costar el país 5000 dolares cada una, pero eso si, incluyendo comisiones y corrupción +IVA.

Total, que cobre Conoco o Chavez o los 4 pendejos que sí conseguirán casa gratis, el que esta seguro de no cobrar nada soy yo. Ni siquiera los huecos de la ARC me los van a arreglar ni disminuirán los cortes eléctricos......

Happy 2012!

2011-12-31T20:07:00.000-04:30

Massive Internet problems at the homestead. I has been quite a struggle to open the page long enough for this note. Think about my friends and colleagues who at this time must think I am the rudest person. Believe it or not, but I cannot even open Gmail in normal frame, and HTLM version was dicey enough that I could get out one single mail today....

Apparently the gods wanted me to be able to write only to my readers today! Thus best wishes for 2012 and may we start in earnest the end of chavismo.

Red page special: when populism sends people up in flames

2011-12-29T23:40:00.001-04:30

And thus we end the year with tragedy upon tragedy. Not only we are apparently now the country in LatAm with the highest crime index but we are also one of the worse ones as far as security on the road. Today a gas carrying truck fell on the road side, overturned, released gasoline which quickly found a spark. Apparently at least one kilometer of the Panamerican highway between Los Teques and Caracas burst into flames killing 12 passengers in a bus and a driver in a car, 16 to 20 people were hurt and a few survived because they threw themselves into the bushes down hill until they reached help. Apparently the public services from cops to fireman were on site as early as possible. All the Los Teques to Salias area was cut off from Caracas for several hours.

I am not writing to comment on the accident but to wonder how come such disasters are not more frequent. Surely we must be a country of exceptional drivers to be able to deal with all the obstacles that exist today in Venezuelan roads:

- Pot holes everywhere
- Gigantic pot holes more often than what you think, even in highways.
- Almost nonexistent Highway police except in "alcabalas" which are usually Nazional guard affairs where trucks are stopped and found deficient on this or that so that they bribe the Nazional Guard to keep driving.
- Highways which have become mere boulevards as the regime has allowed for so many squatters to settle on the side of Highways. I let you imagine how these people cross the way as if nothing, ignoring that cars are SUPPOSED to drive at 80 km per hour.
- No speed control anywhere and thus cars and trucks which can drive at ABOVE 80 km/h, no one bothering them. I let you imagine the effect on cars and traffic of cars falling at 80 in a deep pothole....
- No car or truck inspection whatsoever except for their paperwork. At night you simply cannot drive anymore because too many trucks and cars do not bother to replace their position lights.
- Crime which operates a lot at night when they put nails on the road to force people to stop and then rob them. This also happens on day time and trucks can then be looted while they are stuck in traffic jam caused by the looters.
- And all sorts of additional inconveniences such as unmarked roads, rare direction signs, lack of decent service joints because crime forces them to shut down or degrade their offer, etc, etc.....

So it is quite possible that today's accident is solely the fault of the driver of the PDVSA truck, but no matter what, the regime takes the blame because it needs to answer the following the questions:

- Was the driver of a gas truck properly trained?
. Was the truck duly inspected and certified for its brakes and emergency equipment?
- Was the Panamerican road in good enough shape that a driving bomb could use it?
- How come that truck was driving at that time of day (2 PM) when it should be driving at less crowded hours (5 AM)?
- Etc....

So yes, the driver will be arraigned but the one that should be arraigned is Chavez because it is his fault to refuse to invest in road security because it does not give him votes. Period.

He didn't say that! Did he? Your Christmas idiot on the loose

2011-12-28T22:58:00.000-04:30

Holding a Ph.D. in Molecular Biology, as a published scientist of things such as hot springs dwellers, having heard lectures by quite a few Nobel Prizes (received or received post conference), even if I am long retired from the field I get easily infuriated by the like of creationist idiots or totally unscientifically aberrant characters like Chavez today. They both do the same thing, twist science out of recognition to sponsor their political agenda. Today Chavez "suggested" that the odds were too high for 4 South American presidents to be stricken with cancer in the same span of time. Must we believe that the CIA now stands for Cancer Inducing Agency?

In the video below Chavez does indeed do more than merely suggesting that the cancers of Lula, Roussef, Lugo, his own and as of this week Kirchner have no real natural cause and that maybe in 50 years from now we will find out that they were caused by Obama of all people.

First, as a Molecular Biologist by trade I wish we had reached such capabilities of some mystery targeted cancer producing agent (Bruni has an excellent post on how much BS is that Chavez accusation so I am not getting onto the details).

Second, even with current science, it will not take 50 years to find out whether such a thing could have effectively happened. (starts at 2:50 min)

Third, Chavez shows us that in addition of being an adept to crazed conspiracy theories (starts at sec 34), he has no knowledge of statistical odds and probalilities which clearly go a long way into allowing us to undertand how bad Venezuela has become in recent years. (starts at 12 sec, with a peak at 3:24)

And fourth, for now, he claims that he has the freedom and right to speculate in such things (starts at 3:58) when he does not allow people to speculate on Venezuelan matters. Ask Uson who spent years in jail because he speculated on the burnt soldiers of Fort Mara or Alvarez Paz who speculated on drug traffic and is facing a dubious trial. Maybe the US could send Chavez way an arrest warrant for speculating on things he has no fucking idea about? You know, kind of fashion police type of warrant....

But you know something, really it is not that we have such an inflated idiot ignoramus ego ruling over Venezuela, it is that so many people are putting up with it and even taking him seriously. We are going to pay for that so dearly....

PS: it is as good a time as any to remind folks that Chavez said that the fall of Tripoli was staged in Qatar, that Martian life was erased by capitalism and that the human species has been around for 2,500 years approximately. Just the shinniest pearls of his infinite wisdom ....

The Grinch that keeps trying to steal Christmas

2011-12-26T19:53:00.004-04:30

The more time passes, the more Chavez looks like the Grinch (even some would say in his green complexion). Usually as the holidays approach Chavez tries some media stunt to make sure people do not forget about him, but this year he reached a new level. It is not that what he did benefited him much, I think it will be counterproductive, but it is worth reporting because it describes perfectly the advanced degree of mental decomposition that an obsessively narcissistic personality reaches over time.

First, he did a cadena. You know, the forced SIMULTANEOUS MANDATORY BROADCASTING ON ALL TV and RADIO STATIONS of the country. You may point out that he does cadenas all the time but the one he did on Xmas eve was, well, ridiculous. He had all of his cabinet around a table, on a Saturday, before Xmas, when they should be taking care of familiy matters rathert than waste time listening to yet another of Chavez diatribes. And if such public servants are supposed to serve even at Xmas, well, let them serve and do not hold them hostage to Chavez idiocy.

Of course, I did not watch it, of course, almost no one did watch it because everyone was preparing for our traditional Xmas eve feast, or running around like a beheaded chicken seeking a last minute due gift. But Chavez did plow through his midday cadena, reprimanding his staff, or congratulating it, and making all sorts of promises and all sorts of lies as to having fulfilled previous promises. I may not have watched but I was told and read the tweets of those who watched (because it is their job to watch Chavez for me). I suppose that Chavez wanted to look like a piñata santa.....

If this was not already bad enough, the man had the chutzpah of sending an SMS to everyone in the country. I find that particularly offending, that Chavez invades my SMS box who I let very few people access, to tell me in his usual tone some insincere bullshit that I can do without, a bullshit that had absolutely no redeeming Xmassy quality. Not to mention that he must have paid for it, or did he force the three cel operators of Venezuela to relay that for free? Chavez abuses really have no limit, not the slightest sense of decorum or timing.

But I suppose he wanted to be sure we would be reminded of him atrociously before he goes to Cuba to spend the holidays receiving some mystery medical treatment....

Thus is Chavez, completing his full transformation into a Grinch, not content in stealing from us our livelihood, homes, lands, etc... but even our privacy and our Christmas spirit.

But keep going on Hugo, and watch Putin. He was high in polls and suddenly the Red Square filled up with protesters when he went one step too far. The way you are going I am glad to observe that any time soon you are going to make that misstep.

The Christmas post 2011

2011-12-22T15:42:00.000-04:30

Well, it is this time of year again, to wish everyone a happy Christmas to Hanukkah or Kwanzaa as the case may be. But no vacation again as politics will keep coming our way in Venezuela. True, it will slow down some as Chavez will use the holidays to get more secretive therapy, the opposition knowing that nobody reads papers (when published as some stop publication altogether until mid January 9, including El Pais for the comment section I participate!) will prefer to do door to door activities and be seen at any live nativity scene available, though sitting governors will be giving stuff away as if they were Chavez, but a live one.

Thus it will be a good time to take stock and write less often but on more general stuff, trying to get some of the perspective that may have been lost in recent weeks of a stressful end of year. For news junkies, I probably will be posting more of the eventual newsy stuff on the Facebook pendant of this blog, Interpretando Venezuela (though I will watch for any political Christmas Miracle for here). Facebook is quicker in holiday mood as the link is up there fast (if I can mange to make it work on my Berry), and there is only need for a short comment from my part while you can add all the comments you can possibly wish to write, without moderation. Thus even if you do not read Spanish check it out and point it out to your Spanish speaking friends.

As I will be travelling I probably will not show up until the 25th so have a good Christmas eve in Venezuela and most of Europe and LatAm, and an excellent Christmas day in the UK and North America.

Medina at El Ciudadano

2011-12-20T21:47:00.000-04:30

And to close the cycle of El Ciudadano interviews the old warrior came to the show. As I was watching Pablo Medina, the sixth Unidad presidential candidate I was thinking about Diego Arria. In a way they are very similar, and I am not referring to their desire of calling for a constituent assembly. No, they come from other times and both are reminding us of what was good in the decried "4th Republic". Maybe Arria had all the options, maybe he made a success of himself, but Pablo Medina, trade Union warrior before Chavez came to wreck it all, is also a product of those days, where for many core ethics and personal responsibility did not depend on how successful you were.

Pablo Medina has made many errors in his political life, something he freely and refreshingly acknowledged tonight. But yet his message surprised me by a renewed freshness and candor from his part. Watching him and knowing that there is no chance in a frozen day at hell that he will win next February (he may not be last, though) I still was drawn in his arguments. After all he is admirable in that he is able to learn from his errors, that even though he belonged to the Constituent Assembly of 1999, he was one of the first ones to break up completely with the chavista system (he admitted never having liked Chavez but following at first in the perceived need for an initial collaboration to change the system, another one of his errors). The man tonight, from all fights in the Guyana labor struggle, CausaR, PPT and what not has learned that free enterprise is the only way to create real prosperity, that in spite of all of its excesses it is still much better than whatever crap Chavez is trying to do.

And there resides his importance for this campaign because he is the honest harbinger of what is yet to come, that the working class will start finally to understand that state control and all the power to the soviets was never for them but for a reduced crewed taking politikal advantage of it. It is too bad that Medina did not have the caliber or experience or breaks Lula did because tonight he showed us that in Venezuela it is possible to have now a true social democrat. Thus Medina is essential for this campaign where comeflores fight it out with right wingers: Medina is understood by the people and maybe by many of the NiNi that the Unidad needs so much to win next October. I, for one, wish him to get at least 5% of the votes so that whomever wins sits down with him and talks serious business.

This being said there was really nothing original in his offering tonight, besides the fact that he was the one offering the stuff. But, if you ask me, he made a better case for the constitutional assembly than Arria did. After all Medina says that as an ex consituyente he did agree with 95% of the current text and thus his real goal was to replace the high court and all of the corrupt chavista that will be blocking his action as a president. He probably his right and we should recall that Arria said that Chamorro allowed for a "reconciliation" when she ousted sandinismo in Nicaragua and we should look where is Nicaragua at today.... We certainly should seek some form of negotiation with a defeated chavismo but a general "pass" as proposed by Perez or Capriles will undermine their own tenure, real fast.

Yet, his rather chaotic way of thought, even if meant it in the best of terms, makes him unfit for the presidency and reluctantly, note, I have to give him the last slot in my general ranking which ends up as following

Leopoldo, Machado and Arria, Perez, Capriles, and Medina last.

But then again this is a ranking on their ability to withstand an Interview with El Ciudadano who has given us a great service in opening the best window so far in how the mind of these guys do work. I do hope that he will pull some related stunt before the campaign ends, perhaps moderating a presidential debate himself?

Pablo Medina en Aló Ciudadano por Globovision

Obama gives an interview to Caracas El Universal

2011-12-20T09:35:00.003-04:30

President Obama has given an interview to nothing less than El Universal of Caracas. Possibly because it is the lone Venezuelan paper with an English Venezuelan section, so the guys at the White House would be sure that the message came free of interference. No need to comment on the interview, it is self explanatory in that Chavez international standing is, well, lowest than ever (and his support to recently croaked Kimmy is not going to help). He is an annoyance, maybe dangerous, but Chavez will never be respectable, never worthy of a deal since he cannot be trusted on anything. I mean if a Liberal Democrat thinks so lowly of Chavez.......
English version.
Spanish version.

Lopez at El Ciudadano

2011-12-19T22:25:00.001-04:30

[UPDATED] The good thing about this post is that it will be short. Lopez did what he had to do, be firm, focused, with a vision. No matter how hard the Ciudadano tried (I do not think he tried that hard), Leopoldo remained focused.

In short Lopez went on a lengthy explanation on his "security" proposal, trying to make it not to sound too right wing by including, adequately, that increased security of all will also pour its benefits in other sections of the economy and society. Since the interview started with the Ciudadano questioning his trip to Colombia to meet Uribe, Lopez pointed out that the "economic miracle" of Colombia in the recent years could not have been possible if Uribe had not put some order int he country. Thus brilliantly dodging the issue, including an idiotic attack by Diosdado Cabello today.

Otherwise there were two highlights in the presentation.

Eventually after lots of prodding by El Ciudadano Lopez acknowledged that the high levels of insecurity in Venezuela might also be a strategy of the regime. A sick strategy for sure, I hurry to add, but a strategy as insecurity keep people at home instead of protesting in the streets against Chavez. Never mind that the people for a little bit of increased security would be willing to accept in a not so distant future that Chavez cuts down Human Rigths. Today Obama, coincidentally, criticized Chavez implying that he is a wannabe dictator, WaPo/AP and the BBC, which made it even more relevant that we have at least one candidate focusing strongly on Human Rights. It will be interesting to see how far is Lopez willing to push this accusation of ill intentions of the regime. Well handled it could change a lot the dynamic of the campaign.

The highlight that made us think the most, or wince in my case, came from a caller who was upset that Leopoldo Lopez did take upon Capriles in the last debate (when he offered him the post of education in his eventual administration). This is really becoming a problem, that people do not understand what a primary campaign is all about (we never had a real one) and that too many of us look for a Messiah to take on Chavez and have no patience with democracy's apparent disorder. Amen of the "comeflor" crowd who genuinely think that a language of love will overcome everything. What Lopez replied is not important (he said justly that there must be more debate for more differentiation and that come what may on February 13 all will be united behind the winner), but the problem that is coming up with the Unidad candidates is that debating among themselves is alienating for too many people, and thus they may be reluctant to try it out, losing precious opportunities to polish debating strategies that may be needed against Chavez later. Then again, this may all be a pet peeve of mine.

All in all Lopez gave a very solid performance and I must tie him up to the top, and perhaps, if the questions sent his way had been better he would have won outright this series. Because the man came pumped up, be it by Uribe or recent polls, he reeked of optimism tonight and this never hurts.

-----------------------------------------------
Globovision did not offer at this typing any video of the show tonight. I suppose because Lopez offered a public meeting today where he presented his security program, a semi-fat blue book. So I must put up this presentation video from Globo in all fariness so you will have a look at the man today, even if not infront the Ciudadano. I will change the video if Globo decided to put up an excerpt of tonight.

López: La inseguridad no es un problema que... por Globovision

UPDATE This series is about the general tone of the candidates as they visit Venezuela's top talk show, each in turn. At most I indicate the main points of their programs, not the details since it is more interesting here to evaluate their attitude in front of a questioning party. Their programs are best examined in a different series of posts to be written in January. Still, Bruni, long time reader did get from the post the motivation to dig further and wrote this follow up on Lopez (in Spanish).

And in all fairness if anyone is inspired to write in their blog or paper on the other guys inspired on this series, let me know and I will update those posts to include your text.

Electoral stunts

2011-12-19T08:30:00.000-04:30

Uribe and Lopez

One funny thing about primary electoral campaigns is that they tend to be full of stunts, more than general elections who need a little bit more of composure. But when you trail in the polls and you have nothing to lose anymore, you either go to The Hague, or closer and cheaper, meet with Uribe in Bogota.

These stunts need not be a bad thing and actually do help focus the issues sometimes. If going to The Hague was, for Venezuela today, useless, it was a good way to remind folks that the Chavez administration is a criminal one that has committed enough felonies to deserve at least a judicial investigation. No poll yet has published whether Diego Arria benefited from that trip but he sure made a few headlines and forced the PSUV to reply even if it were to dismiss the stunt. In other words, the stunt did anger chavismo which is not a bad thing in politics.

The stunt that Leopoldo Lopez pulled this week is of a more immediate effect because it connects the Venezuelan voter with the reality of crime in Venezuela and the knowledge by all that in Colombia next door, Uribe did improve things. You may deny it if you are within chavismo but you cannot hide to yourself that your little buddies at the FARC are in trouble due to Uribe. If he supports a Venezuelan candidate then this can only mean trouble for you some day somewhere.

Telesur, this paragon of objectivity, the CNN of our glorious Latin America XXI socialist wannabe did unwillingly reflect that in the video that I put at the end of this post. The snippet lasted 40Sec, started by saying that Uribe "intervened" in Venezuelan politics (yeah right, Chavez, Telesur boss, never did interfere in Colombia), that the reason of the meeting was that Uribe is afraid that Venezuela is becoming a dictatorship (it is, Telesur should not even mention that word if you ask me), and finished saying that Lopez is corrupt and Uribe even more. Quite a smashing argument from Telesur, I am sold!

But the meeting was more important than Telesur would like us to believe. Even though Uribe is a busy man these days, he found 4 hours for Lopez. And in these 4 hours he semi-publicly quizzed Leopoldo from oil production to how many cows are in Venezuela. We do not know if Leopoldo replied to all but Uribe seemed pleased that Leopoldo was prepared enough though he took care to let him know that focusing his campaign on a single issue (crime in the case of Lopez) was not enough to defeat Chavez.

I do not know if that meeting is going to be good for Lopez, but it certainly was good for Uribe who shows that he is still on the top of his game, that he follows Venezuela as closely as he follows Colombia and that his office is a Mecca of sorts.

As for Lopez, he risks little. He is trailing, a strong third maybe but still a third. Such a meeting gives him a few plus: he is taken seriously by a notable leader of the hemisphere, that leader thinks he is viable and that he can be elected (and thus take office which chavismo is trying to muddle); he probably will get advice, and support from the Colombian community in Venezuela who likes Uribe. But there are also negatives, after all Venezuelans do not like much "foreign intervention", even from someone like Uribe who could teach us a few things that we sorely miss these days. Also he is not making happy the opposition umbrella MUD because of that "intervention". But then again it seems that the MUD only likes what Perez and Capriles do, so why should Leopolod care much about the MUD angst?

In short, the kind of stunt good enough for a primary where you need to take chances to be seen as different. Outcome uncertain but worth a shot.

Juan Carlos Monedero, otra joya del chavismo

2011-12-18T19:18:00.003-04:30

Miguel en su blog nos informa de una entrevista publicada en ABC de España de Juan Carlos Monedero, esa joya del chavismo, uno de los "intelectuales" que dirigen el Centro Internacional Miranda, esa cosa que trata de darle algo de sentido al socialismo del siglo XXI y que a decir verdad ha sido de lo mas discreto en estos ultimos dos años, a medida que ahora unicamente la opinion del Supremo cuenta. En fin, las respuestas que dio Miguel me dejaron algo insastisfecho, y ademas con la necesidad de poner tambien algo en español para que nadie se lo pierda, señalando a ese farsante chupa dolares (o euros?). ¡Ah! Se me olvidaba, como la Golinger en el New York Times, el tipo en los comentarios de la entrevista escribe que la entrevista fue mal editada. ¡Es que creen que uno es bolsa!

Puse un texto en ABC pero aqui abajo me permito ponerlo otra vez para que ustedes lo puedan disfrutar tambien:

A Juan Carlos Monedero

Lejos de mi polemizar aquí con usted. Ya tengo muchos años siguiendo sus travesuras en Venezuela en mi leído blog (y que los lectores de ABC me perdonen que sea en inglés).

http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/search?q=monedero

Pero hay unas cosas que no se pueden dejar pasar de su entrevista, para que los lectores de ABC puedan entender por completo lo que usted representa.

Por ejemplo usted habla de las certificaciones de la UNESCO y de otras agencias de desarrollo. Pues bien, diga también que esas agencias no verifican números, aceptan de buena fe los números enviados por los países miembros, que los números de Venezuela los calculan gente con su talante, y que nadie en Venezuela tiene la posibilidad de verificar esos números debido al hermetismo y el sabotaje de los poderes públicos en contra de cualquiera que se atreva a investigar.

Usted trata de minimizar la violencia, de comparar Venezuela con México o África. Pero diga también que, desde que Hugo Chávez llegó al poder, en 13 años se triplicó la violencia en Venezuela. TRIPLICÓ. Y lo peor es que la subida dramática empezó con las famosas misiones sociales que supuestamente iban a resolver todo.

Usted implica que el gobierno prefiere inflación a paro. ¿Será que usted tendrá la gentileza
de explicar al lector que en Venezuela hay millones de trabajadores informales? ¿Que para el
INE (nuestro instituto de estadísticas) cualquier persona que ejerce alguna actividad remunerada unos pocos días al mes se considera trabajador a tiempo completo?

Dígalo, por favor, en nombre de la objetividad. Las explicaciones se dan como uno quiera pero los números, señor Monedero, son terribles para la reputación de gente como usted.

Y ni mencionemos su comparación grosera de la Venezuela pre Chávez a la España franquista. De todas las burlas a la inteligencia que usted ha dicho, esa puede aspirar al título de la peor.

Shake it, baby! Shake that PSUV tree!

2011-12-17T22:59:00.000-04:30

I have lost much interest in following the inner works of chavismo. I do not mean to say by that that what happens inside chavismo is not important but it is now so clouded in mystery, so dependent on Chavez whims, so perturbed by his disease that there is just too much speculation and garbage to sort out before one can begin to understand what is going on. Besides, we already know anyway: rule1, Chavez is the boss; rule 2, Chavez is the only boss, rule 3, Chavez is way above anyone else; rule 4 you better stay quiet and rule 5, if you do not stay quiet, if you bring the slightest of a hint of a shade on the bright glory of Chavez, expect the worst and be thankful for it. The list of people that were tossed to the garbage since Chavez is in office is now too tedious to count, only the list of the few ones that were dug out from the trash is worth any interest.

You will thus be forgiving of my slight coverage on these issues in the past few months, much preferring to write on the dynamics of the opposition primaries. But on occasion I have to come back to it and even ride Miguel's approach, as good as any speculation you may find around, and probably much better as way less hysterical. Because, let's face it, are you not tired sick of the constant waves of rumors about Chavez health, more than likely now totally orchestrated from Miraflores Palace so we discuss that rather the myriad of problems harassing our daily existence? At the top of Chavez disease I barely participated in them and now I simply erase any mail or tweet on that. Call me when he finally croaks.

But this week shake up was a tad too much to ignore. So, no speculation from me but rather a tentative explanation of why such things are happening and why they will keep happening, at least until next March.

First Chavez is sick. How sick? Who cares anymore! The thing is that his now avowed mortality with a je ne sais quoi of the lady does protest too much that she is cured, must lead us to the belief that there is uncertainty about how vigorous Chavez will be for a difficult campaign, and even whether he can manage to reach for October 2012 and anyway, even if he reaches that date and win, how long will he be able to stay in office until he has to be replaced by someone.

Thus, second, Chavez is in the most terrible of positions to have to plan for a successor even if in his core self he believes that there is no revolution without him, that no one is worthy to step in, etc, etc... But he may croak and he needs to think about the future of his clan, the famous Chavez robbing brothers who own by now some of the biggest fortunes of Venezuela. If not the biggest when you put all of them together. No arguing that: look at their life style, their farms, their secrecy, etc., etc. These guys are loaded and are torn between the need for discretion and the nouveau riche desire to show it off.

Which leads us to third, that the only possible heir that Chavez would have is a relative, just as Fidel did, just as Papa doc did, just as Somoza did, just as many were about to try in Libya, Egypt, etc. Not for Chavez the subtleties of Mexico's PRI or the successive generals of Brazil, or even, pushing the envelope, India's Ghandis. A Chavez ruling is the only reality accepted.

The problem is that form a legal point of view he really cannot put up one of his brothers unless he changes a few things first. His daughters seem evil and willing enough but are still too young; his son, nobody knows where his son his, rumored to be partying around, gay, whatever. There is a son in law but he has zero charisma and he is pure evil himself, oozing it (I remember him when he was a mere talk show host at VTV pre-2002, before he boinked a Chavez, and I do not think I would have been able to shake his hand then).

And of course within the PSUV and barracks a few know these harsh facts of life and think that if they do not make their move soon, if a heir is finally in place, well, bye! bye! presidential hopes forever. Note: observe I am not even bringing in the Cuban factor since for them the choice is easier, "whoever keeps sending us our monthly allowance".

So that is why Chavez keeps downsizing people like Diosdado, to bring him back up again while the "heir apparent" Maduro is downgraded to running for Carabobo governor. Note 1: I happen to think that Maduro is perhaps the lone choice that chavismo has for that state after the amazing fiasco of La Hojilla creep in becoming its governor in 2008, Carabobo having become la bête noire of Chavez. Note 2: I never quite bought the Maduro "heir apparent" thinggy. What Chavez is doing is simply making sure that no one gets strong enough to threaten him, or any of his heirs when he finally settles for one. But not destroying them either so that they will be able to support and help his heir to prevail for the succession. A complex game that will be repeated over and over again for as long as needed and for as long as the opposition speaks of that before it speaks of lack of jobs, inflation, potholes, etc, etc.....

The only thing that bothers me in this whole charade is how primitive, how out of place, Chavez mind is. But then again, as I have written already in the past, Chavez is a reactionary, XIX century style, someone absolutely unable to understand the future.

To conclude this waste of time, a piece of advice: do not bother anymore about Chavez health, do not follow rumors, unfollow Boccaranda on your twitter, pay at most a distant attention to regime changes (though watch out for the laws popping out), enjoy the primaries and your Xmas holiday.

Arria at El Ciudadano

2011-12-16T21:06:00.000-04:30

It is more difficult to evaluate the interview of tonight as we were clearly playing in a different league. Not major or minor league, just a league next country, almost. First, El Ciudadano was interviewing a candidate more to his generational standard: the conversation was almost intimate, between two pals commenting on the state of the country behind a cup of coffee. Second, it was much more about a diagnosis of the country than an actual government plan. And third, Arria has been around the globe several times.

I suppose that the versatility of the Ciudadano, his desire not to appear to endorse anyone made him find a way, for the fourth time in a week, to allow the interview to play on the strength (or alleged weakness) of a given candidate. On this respect, kudos for the man as he is indeed a better journalist (or manipulator as some would say) than I knew him already to be. And yet, for all of this coziness the interview had a few telling highlights as Diego Arria managed clearly to cast a doubt on the other candidates vision. Without naming a single one he successfully exposed their basic weakness: the pretense that all will be fine and that chavismo will let them serve their 6 year term. Well, rather Perez and Capriles I should say though I should say that Machado seems quite sure to serve her own full term.....

And yet this is a weakness of Arria as he received a phone call that was rather negative and that he could not quite answer. There was that woman calling, clearly from a popular back ground (so even there they do follow Arria) who wondered if he was speaking French because he mostly, but also the other candidates, was not speaking clearly on how to solve her problems. Bingo! I am tempted to say because indeed for all their efforts apparently neither Capriles nor Perez are convincing on that respect. At least if you believe her. The conclusion is that when push comes to shove, people like this woman might decide to vote for Chavez again anyway because even though she knows there are only promises at least there are promises she understands, in Spanish.

In other words, that woman wants a solution now, today, and she does not understand or does not want to understand that no one, and certainly even less Chavez, can produce a solution until some of the country parameters are reshaped. And this is where we need to look for the strength of Arria's intervention tonight. Although he cannot say it frontally, he knows that there is no way a new government will be able to bring clear solutions in a year or two, perhaps not in 6 years even if the duration gives better possibilities.

On an intellectual point of view his offer is impeccable: he will rule for three years. In three years there is enough time to change the main operators of the state to place competent and honest ones in their spot. There is enough time to redesign the economical functioning of the country, to revamp its balance of payments so that even if we owe our asses to the Chinese at least we will have a clear payment plan. There is enough time to purge the army of its drug trafficking group, to ship its Cubans back home, to reestablish a semblance of order, or at least build the basis to restore order. And in three year, after he has taken upon himself all unpopular measures he can organize real elections where real choices can be offered and leave Miraflores, his head high even if only 5% of the people still like him. All of these he addressed briefly, to the point, without making a new constitutional assembly the essential part (backpedaling to the possibility of a more limited constitutional change focused on the must-change rules and people).

Unfortunately his plan can be understood by El Ciudadano, by me, but it cannot be understood (yet) by the woman that called. If the woman is not planning to vote in the primaries (I assume that because she clearly sounded confused about their objective), will Arria's speech convince enough people among those who understand him, for him to win in February? And thus tonight Arria won points to sticking to his guns while makign them more palatable, but lost some by offering the real solution to the country but one that few can understand. Yet there is still 1.5 month of campaign left and like Machado, his door to door approach could deliver him enough votes if not enough to win, enough to influence the MUD/Unidad.

Indeed, besides the expected stunts that are now his trademark (he showed blackmail receipts signed by the FARC to Tachira farmers who paid vacuna) there was his not quite veiled criticism of the MUD, of its complacency with the CNE, of its desire to smooth all differences at all costs, yet not offering him the chance to participate in the elaboration of the MUD program. On this he is right: if Machado or Arria were to win in February they would be imposed upon a program that they took no part in elaborating. Think about the implications. It is time that the MUD takes seriously those two (and Medina too), that it stops being a lone mostly PJ/AD/UNT organization if it wants active collaboration from these people, and their voters, after February 13.

Just for bringing back this dose of realism, even though his presentation was hard to classify, I will tie him for the first place with Machado, ahead of Perez and Capriles who remains last so far (note, AGAIN: last in this subjective but fair classification does not mean bad, it means that the other were somewhat better than Capriles in the Ciudadano format).

Diego Arria en Aló Ciudadano por Globovision

----------------------

Additional note to praise Capriles, Arria and Machado equally. None of them is making a big point, or even a point, of the prosecution or dangers that they have suffered in their political lives or during the campaign. For memory:
- Capriles was jailed for several month without cause until the regime had to let him go, without any restitution for that part of his life stolen from him
- Machado has been often threatened, even barred from leaving the country, for her role in SUMATE, and was almost shot in the 23 de Enero a few weeks ago (plus many other incidents with chavofascist storm troopers)
- Arria was robbed of his property by the state without justification and even less of a compensation, has been threatened and tear-gassed in campus he visits.

And yet, none of them has exhibited these events except in a casual comment at most (e.g. Arria just said he was robbed, without giving any detail whatsoever, moving quickly to more constructive words). Quite refreshing from Chavez who spends the best part of his cadenas bemoaning all the evils that were done to him, real or imaginary, same difference. Kudos guys!

Dudamel versus Serenata Guyanesa

2011-12-16T10:56:00.001-04:30

A very nasty comment by "anonymous" in my post on Xmas music make me take the unusual step or publicly replying as an excellent opportunity to measure the survival of artists in fascist regimes like our own today.
In Venezuela there is no copyright valid. The regime paid long ago some lip service when Microsoft launched a strong world wide campaign in defense of intellectual property and nothing followed, all was promptly forgotten. Not to mention that there are those in the regime that think that working with your mind alone is not a revolutionary attitude. As a consequence today Venezuelan artists cannot make a decent living if they depend solely on the Venezuelan market. They may sell a couple of thousand of copies of a new CD (to people like me that condemn piracy for artists) but quickly the pirated copies will be sold by the thousands and thousands through pirated sellers in the streets, for a tiny fraction of course of the original.

This is the case of Serenata Guayanesa, a superb group of Venezuelan folk music, which has done a great work of rescuing many tunes and styles that were unknown to most of us, way before Chavez came to power. But now their style has gone out of fashion as reggaeton has taken over supreme over the country (even Salsa is under threat). That, plus piracy, and you can understand why the Serenata Guyanesa group has been vying for some government support. Before Chavez they could make a decent living at best (no Hollywood like mansion and swimming pool for them). But since Chavez allowed piracy so his hordes could get access to stuff for cheap to nothing, the Serenata simply cannot make ends meet on their work as even concert sessions are on the way out, not only because of fashion, but also because of insecurity when you attend them, the cost of holding them today, etc, etc....

Although I am certainly not happy that they caved in (after more than 10 years, it must be noted), I really cannot be mad at them. But I can be mad at Gustavo Dudamel who is now in my shit list of chavistas, doomed to suffer the von Karayan syndrome for the rest of his life, the more so when the crimes of chavismo are finally fully revealed.

There are two people today noted for the youth orchestral system of Venezuela, the founder Abreu and his biggest star so far, Dudamel. Abreu is working for the remain of his life is to preserve the system he devoted his life to, trying desperately to avoid a chavista take over which would mark its demise as it is the case of everything chavismo touches. Thus Abreu did nothing different than what he did in the past: kowtow to the power in place. He will pay a price for that but at least he has an excuse and when the regime meets its defenestration we will find a way to redeem him.

But Dudamel has no redemption ahead of him because he does not depend on the regime for his livelihood as he is now an international star, Music Director of the L.A. symphony. He could have found many ways to make his support to the Youth Orchestral system discreet but no. As times goes by it seems that his relationship to the regime grows and that he takes even pleasure in it. Some people simply cannot resit the lure of raw power. Other rising stars of the system did not succumb like Dudamel did: think for example of the Venezuelan directors now in place at Oslo or La Fenice in Venice. I do not see them playing for Chavez on a regular basis (nor hinting that Dudamel is "sacrificing" himself so that they can stay out of to rule). I suppose that maybe someday we may learn that it was a plot all along by Abreu and Dudamel to sacrifice themselves for the befit of the system, but that ultimate condemnation of a passed regime had better be good if Dudamel wants his good name back in Venezuela. I, for one, will not be buying records or concert tickets from him ever again (not to mention that I have my own artistic questions about how brilliant Dudamel may be).

Since at some point the regime is going to be ousted (they always do, it is only a matter of time) it is already important for us to discuss such things because we need to settle the criteria which will allow forgiveness or punishment of its collaborators, be they Dudamel or Ramirez at PDVSA. We need to understand the reasons of why they did such collaboration and accept that somethings can be crossed over and forgotten, but some cannot. Certainly Dudamel cannot be sent to jail for his own hubris and immaturity, but public contempt is in store for him, without the need of a trial. He is still in time to find his way out of his own self created mess, though he certainly can remain in the wealthy left of L.A., as disconnected from the reality of the world a group as you can find. They do go well together, bbq at the Penn compound included.

----------------------

Special note for anonymous on his blasting "el norte". You missed the point completely. That song is about the travails of emigration, about the dashed hopes that go with it. It was written at a time where NY was as much our exile route as Miami (it is not any more for Venezuelans). But the song could have been equally well written for Madrid or London or Dallas or.... If they chose New York it was to make sure folks at home understood better because all of us had been or knew someone one who had been to New York. True, it is a little bit strong at first, but it certainly is not ANTI New York. It is ANTI emigration and New York is the unfortunate prop.

So, if you are a New Yorker do not take it personally and be sure to understand a text, not only in words but in context and humor before you trash it as idiotically as you did. Thank you.

Machado at El Ciudadano

2011-12-15T21:15:00.001-04:30

Well, what can I say? If the only three candidates were HCR, PP and Maria Corina Machado and the vote tomorrow I would vote for her without batting an eye. Trailing in the polls, really hard pressed by an unusually aggressive Ciudadano in the first part of her visit, she put all of that on the side and was able to draw her vision of the country. You may agree with her, or not, but you cannot deny that the woman knows what she wants and that at this stage she does not care whether people think she is right. She knows she is and she knows her mission goes beyond the current electoral context. I have always been a sucker for Cassandra like politicians and let's say it: she was thatcherian tonight.

But one better, actually, because she has some genuine compassion to go with it. Her best moment may have been when the Ciudadano told her dismissively that all candidates promised such stuff and she looked straight at him and said " but they believe it when it comes from me".
Ciudadano: Eso se lo dicen todo el mundo, Maria Corina [dismissive hand gesture follows]
Machado: Nooo, eso es verdad; pero a mi me lo creen

That is what you call aplomb.

I do not know how true is that, or if she was trying to gamble everything to nudge a few points in the polls, but one thing is certain: she has star quality because the callers were devoted supporters whereas the callers from the first two guys were more inquisitive, seeking reassurance. None of the Machado callers sought reassurance.

But let's get back to the interview and away from my perceptions (I love wonkish strong women, even if I have little use for them). First, I suppose that the initial almost harsh stance from El Ciudadano was part of the show. After all, his self anointed mission is to make all candidates play on their strength, and MCM being a woman and trailing, he may have wanted to show the world that she is credible as a president of Venezuela. Her first hellish 10 minutes did prove that point and the rest of the interview went much more according to form, with El Ciudadano even joking at some point that people are upset when he is too harsh and upset when he is too soft. But the man has been around the block and I suspect that he really wants the best one to win in February, whomever. Which led to a telling moment.

EL Ciudadano was of course asking her about her lack of crowds, of mass meetings, etc, as the main three candidates are able to pull at their events. She said some crap about going to the people instead and she dismissed all the polls bravely pointing out that not only 40% of the people have not chosen their man yet, but had the Ciudadano made his choice already? He fumbled, taken by surprise, and admitted that he was waiting for February (as yours truly isdoing, by the way). Which was my best part of the interview for me because MCM showed that she clearly understood what a primary is all about: you chose the one you like the best, not necessarily the one you think will win the general election. This allowed her to be generous in saying that all candidates would be united behind the winner in February and that it was great that we had such great candidates to pick from.

Since this is long enough already, I will pass on the wonkish part except to stress that she knows her numbers, she made her homework and she has ideas, clear ideas. We can discuss their feasibility at will but since I am of the mind that the feasibility of anything is questionable, why bother. Let's suffice that a candidate shows intellect and the ability to come up with solutions because the solutions we discuss today may well be absolutely moot a year from now when a new administration takes charge and finds empty coffers and thousands of saboteurs in front.

At any rate, tonight Machado showed that intelligently she is doing a primary campaign. She is not wasting time on the pretense of a national campaign as those ahead in the polls are doing, and she is focusing on the only thing she can do: gather one by one the faithful, those that will be certain to vote for her once convinced. That is how it is won in Iowa and New Hampshire, and how it should be won in Venezuela except that she has little time left until February 12. We´ll see.

Maria Corina en Aló Venezuela por Globovision

-------

PS: So right now my series choices stand as MCM in first, PP in second and HCR in third, with three to go, and none eliminated outright. Wish me luck in being able to follow the three interviews as I may miss the Monday night with Leopoldo but I should be able to get Friday and Tuesday..

Your Christmas present to yourself

2011-12-15T15:25:00.000-04:30

I have a suggestion for your Christmas this year, at least if you live in Venezuela. Do yourself a favor and get this strange compilation "Navidades Venezolanas". Apparently somebody had the good idea to get the copyrights (buy? steal? we are in Venezuela after all) of some of the best known Venezuelan Christmas music. The real stuff for us, no Silent Night or Jingle bells here! The version chosen might not be the best ones (I question at least one medley) but the overall result is very, very satisfying (including the Nancy Ramos version of Guanaguanare).

You get Burrito Sabanero, El Niño Jesus Llanero, Corre Caballito (one of the greatest Xmas song ever if you ask me, by the unmatched and unmatchable Serenata Guayanesa), the now classical Niño Lindo, etc...

And of course, as you shop get the Christmas album El Cuarteto en NocheBuena of a few years ago. THE BEST Xmas album in any country. OK, I am prejudiced but try to prove me wrong. (already reviewed here in 2004).

Ref: ICRecords PALACIO, 2011, CD-66720, FD-260-2011-648 Aeromusica barcode 7 591476 113224

Perez at El Ciudadano

2011-12-14T20:51:00.002-04:30

Tonight the second Unidad candidate, Pablo Perez, took the stand at El Ciudadano. Takign the stand may be a tad strong since both El Ciudadano and Pablo Perez are from Zulia state and no matter how hard they tried the atmosphere was more relaxed than during the first of the series, the visit of Capriles last Monday. this caveat being advanced it still was a real interview, a one hour chance to say to the country why Perez wants to be president.

The good news is that the format is definitely better and that hard questioning by El Ciudadano (making us try to forget the usually inane question of his side kick Peñaloza) gave us a better image of Perez than this blogger had. A much better image actually. The bad news is that I still cannot erase from my mind that him like Capriles would benefit of another 4 years at the head of their state before becoming president. There is that je ne sais quoi missing still. And yet that cannot stop me from writing that the opposition has the luxury to be able to pick between several great candidates, unlike the GOP in the US who seems unable to embrace the lone serious candidate they have as Moises Naïm has reported in El Pais. But I digress.

Since I did not promise objectivity but at best trying to be fair I will not go into his low points. After all, not only you cannot define a je ne sais quoi, but he really did not get any hard ball question that he could not find an elegant way to dodge (even the inevitable question about all of those dinosaurs supporting him, going as far as admitting that Ramos Allup is one of his main advisers). Teflon he ain't made of, but it still slides somewhat.

Fortunately for him as I write this review he made a few strong points. For example, in one that is sure to send many hard core opposition raving, he said he was not afraid of the CNE and that he would not allow them to wait until the wee hours to publish their results. What was notable in that statement was not the phrasing itself but the assurance he displayed. He may have been rehearsing that really well or indeed he is ready to fight for our rights. And I am afraid that it is the latter because on other points he showed a strength of character that I am afraid to say Capriles did not have in contrast. He seemed to be someone that you would actually follow in a protest march. Note: Capriles has been tear gassed, but he does not play on it whereas as far as I know Perez never was gassed. But in politics all is about perception and tonight Perez showed that the comeflor candidate was not going to be him.

Another point that came across and that he seems determined to play is that he is not form Caracas, contrary to ALL OTHER candidates. That gave him the assurance not to talk or even be questioned about recent polls. The guy knows that once people outside of Zulia realize that he is not from Caracas they will be more willing to listen to him. His electoral strategy is long run and he seems very comfortable being in second position right now. For example he made a point to name small states and saying that these should also be considered because they are also Venezuelans. He also extended his protective hand to the Llanos. On this respect he scored yet another point against Capriles who cannot seem to escape his Caracas aura even though he is campaigning strongly all around.

Speaking of protective, he is playing on his natural physical bulk trying to look protective. His shirt, contrary to Capriles, was the blue of UNT but with a fashionable little blue alligator on the side (in Venezuela there is no copyright so that the alligator is freely stolen, no one is fooled). But the shirt fit him better and credibly. We can trust more a father figures if he plays the part, you know...

In short, Perez came out as a no-nonsense social democrat and that did him a lot of good. Thus my conclusion for the time being: 1) Perez and 2) Capriles, with 4 more to go.
-------------

Reader Syd pointed out that Globovision has already a partial video with its report. I should have known better and wait a few more minutes before posting to wait for the video. Here it is.

Pablo Pérez en Aló Ciudadano por Globovision

Brazilian Imperialism at play: Marco Aurelio Garcia is at it again

2011-12-14T13:28:00.000-04:30

Chavez's man in Brazilia?

Marco Aurelio Garcia is a shadowy figure that intermittently occupies the forefront of Brazilian politics since Lula was elected 9 years ago. He comes from the left but that has not stopped him from embracing Brazilian imperialism, the more so if that one will secure his vision of the world. His role in supporting Chavez no matter what and making Venezuela a Brazilian dependency needs no further detail. And with great courtesy he reminds us today that this is still his plan, that Chavez is good for Brazil even if he is not good for Venezuelans. But Marco Aurelio Garcia is not well known for his democratic initiatives, unless someone is willing to prove me wrong.

I am one that does not espouse "integration" at any cost for Venezuela, and even less today that we are now a mono-producing country of oil unable to grow even half of its food. If Venezuela were finally to be allowed to join the Mercosur, not only this one would not guarantee democracy for Venezuela as it is one of its missions, but that would compromise seriously Venezuela's recovery once we get rid of Chavez. For reasons too long for this post, Chavez is throwing back Venezuela economy to mid XX century needs of industrial and agricultural protectionism to allow the reconstruction of a basic economy before we can join globalization. Certainly Brazil, and Argentina do not want that since Venezuela economy already depends so much on their own.

Paraguay, the little guy of Mercosur, has the merit of pretending still to be a sovereign nation. Two deadly wars were fought by them on this subject. So the Senate of Paraguay has steadily refused to allow Venezuela into Mercosur until it gives better proofs to its commitment to democracy and Human Rights. This is of course annoying for Marco Aurelio and his buddies who as a good scion of an imperialistic and even neocolonial wannabe power could not care less about human rights outside of Brazil. So Marco Aurelio told Paraguay that Brazil was disgusted by the delays put by the Paraguayan Senate.

If there is any need for arguments against Venezuela getting inside the Mercosur, Marco Aurelio Garcia did supply a good one today. As a Venezuelan I wish to thank Paraguay for blocking our access to Mercosur even if some of our own opposition politician want us in for whatever obscure and unreal reasons they offer us. Ledezma et al. should be aware that no matter what the internal rules say or the treaty of Ushuaia pretended, once Venezuela is in Mercosur people like Marco Aurelio Garcia are NEVER going to help the return of democracy in Venezuela. He said it so yesterday. Neither Cristina nor Dilma will lift a finger, ever, and even less Pepe Mujica because Chavez is the perfect scarecrow to have to control their own rowdy left represented by people like Garcia, wolves in sheep clothing if we have ever seen them.

UCV: the results are in

2011-12-13T15:24:00.001-04:30

In spite of all the trouble of last Friday the Central University of Venezuela finished counting the student votes. And chavismo was trashed, TRASHED! Amusing details next.

First, the trashing. The non chavista groups run three lists and each one at the very least doubled the lone chavista list led by the now ineffable Kevin Avila. First, the participation was a high 45% (in other instances the student body may vote as low as 20%). Right there you can read that the latest attacks and maneuvers against the UCV, using creeps like Avila, badly backfired. With a 45% participation and such a victory, the best thing for the regime is to drop the issue for the time being and seek how to replace Kevin boy.

The three list had respectively 4411 + 3171 + 3006 = 10 588 against the meager 1019 of the Avila list. A 10 to 1 trashing if you will.

Second, the chavista reaction. Kevin Avila is an idiot. I have put at the end a video where you can find some of the stuff he said and I will address next. And watching the video, even if you do not speak Spanish, you will wonder whether you would vote for someone as uneducated as he is. I mean, we are not voting trade unions here where roughness of style and grammatical with vocabulary mistakes are expected, we are voting student body where it is expected that the student representative is articulated enough to hold his stand in any circumstances against these nasty faculties trying to screw up students.

Of course Kevin screams fraud. What he seems totally unaware of is that the argumentation he advances is the same as the ones advanced by the opposition against the CNE, who never obliges. Unfortunately for him the UCV already decided to go beyond vote recounting and repeat the vote in the two faculties that were trashed by Kevin's little buddies. It is to be expected that the anti Chavez vote might be even more mobilized this time around aggravating the actual trashing of Avila. another beauty is that Kevin states, without even batting an eye, that there were more voters than people registered when the UCV electoral body recognizes a 45% participation. Kevin the parrot, truly..... If those are the best and the brightest chavismo has to offer us, well, we are in deep, deep trouble. I am already missing Robert Serra.....

Third, about Diego Scharifker. Even the brightest of the opposition manage to make really bad moves. Diego was elected last year with a big score. The very articulate and very promising Diego wanted to repeat his hold on office for one more year until he graduates, forgetting that the tendency now is to step aside after one term, setting the example. Yet he had merits to try out. But Diego has decided to throw his lot with UNT. Nothing wrong with that but compromising enough that it explains why he lost his reelection bid with the 3171 reported above, 25% less than the winning list of a certain Requesens. I used to follow Scharifker on Twitter but then his tweets became a series of activities to promote Pablo Perez. So I "unfollowed" becasue I was more interested in his activities to defend the UCV. If I want to know about Perez I will follow his tweets as I follow those of Lopez, Arria and Machado...... Apparently I am not the only one that decided to "unfollow" Diego.

Chavez in heavens/paradise (lapsus brutis from the Nazional Guard?)

2011-12-13T12:35:00.002-04:30

This one will have to be listed in the chapter of "truth is stranger than fiction". Click for full effect.

Tal Cual regales us with this recent painting that has been hung in the Nazional Guard headquarters of the Andes region (San Cristobal). Besides the obvious, that we do not know exactly whether Chavez is in heavens or paradise (same difference for many), we cannot help wonder if it is not a classical betrayal from the sub-conscious of the Nazional Guard in charge as to the coming demise of Chavez. Still, for fun, let's do a little art criticism, or deconstructionism if you will, to try to understand whatever is going inside the strange neuronal connections of these people.

Let's start with Jesus. After 13 years of "racial" bolibanana revolution", he is as Scandinavian as it gets. I mean, he was an Israelite. Look at Palestinians rioting today and find anyone reminding you of that Jesus. Don't chavistas keep bragging about their ties with the Palestinian cause?

And let's keep on the race card. Any African anywhere? Or must we assume that the grotesque character with a poncho and a reversed baseball cap is the token African American in the composition? Because the natives are represented at least twice, including the cherub like creature with a Yanomamian shaved head leaning against Chavez crotch.

Let's go back to the heavens now. On the top left we have the allegory to Carabobo. Of course, we are in a barrack and though the decades Carabobo has become a myth even though the Independence war did not finish at Carabobo. This is the myth created by Gomez to justify his army that has gotten a life of its own....

There is also a little "llanero" choral floating. Jesus was not updated but singing cherubs have. I suppose there is some progress there.

Symbols abound: two aragüaneys in bloom, a forest that looks more New England than Venezuelan, two parrots, orchids, etc... including a cloud in the form of Western Venezuela, the Guard locale. And of course the sword of Bolivar that goes ABOVE the "Moral y Luces", underlining sub consciously that the will of the arms is stronger than the civilian symbols or morality and enlightenment.

Ad since I cannot avoid it let's finish with the said Bolivar, with a strange blue spin in his brain, who looks like a cross between ghost and fairy godmother which end up giving the look of a cheap fag in drag.

Truly, I am in awe at this display of chavisteria.......

PS: let's not forget about a portrait of Bolivar as a terrorist displayed a few weeks ago in these pages.

Capriles at El Ciudadano

2011-12-12T22:06:00.002-04:30

El Ciudadano is the flagship talk show of Globovision, from 5PM to 8 PM. The political who'swho of Venezuela has to go through its demands, like it or not. Chavistas have stopped going there years ago because, see, the guests receive unfiltered phone calls from the audience which can be quite nasty on occasion. Yet, the strength of the show is in its anchor, Leopoldo Castillo, who is tough but fair, not tolerating nonsese or "guabineo" (dodging the issue, failing to give at least a partial answer to a given question). Hate it or love it, it is the one and it has privileges that no other talk show has. Such as organizing a one hour for each candidate of the Unidad starting tonight with Henrique Capriles Radonski (HCR). None will miss the date (then again all have gone there at some point so they are used to it and not afraid anymore).

I am not promising to watch all of them but I'll try to do so and give as brief a possible a comment on that because, well, there are bound to be better to know the candidates than the stupid debates we have been subjected to so far. Unfortunately at best a 20% of the population may end up watching the shows because of the hour and because of Globovision limited to cable TV outside of Caracas and Valencia.

Without further ado, let's comment on HCR tonight (remember, I am not even pretending to be objective, but I will try fairness).

The governor of Miranda appeared quite relaxed (good poll numbers still). But he was cautious enough to wear a rather awful shirt but in the COPEI green which means that he feels that he needs to work on attracting the Copei vote away of Pablo Perez. COPEI should be in theory a natural fit for HCR since he started his political career as a COPEI representative in 1998. (Juan has posted a partial video of the performance at his blog which I have lifted for the bottom of this post)

He did not say anything that he has not said before (jobs, fairness, justice, whatnot). However he said it with more conviction than I have seen him saying it since he started. At least he betrayed some awareness that his nice speech is part wishful thinking when the reality of January 2013 comes rolling in at inauguration day. He is not as comeflor as I was starting to believe he was. Still, when a caller confronted him on why he would not pursue Chavez in front of courts (second debate "highlight"), he failed. He took the tangent that it was not his duty to judge anyone (true, and fair answer) but he was unable to explain what plan he has, if any, to make sure the judicial power becomes independent enough to dare to prosecute corrupt chavista officials on its own. In other words, he may believe truly in separation of powers, that he should not interfere, but he pretends that all will be solved nicely without his intervention. No deal, for me, because you do not go from a chavista fully owned judiciary to a fair one without some significant measures. Not even in Oz.

This being said, and I do not want to be negative, it was his best presentation so far, and for the first time I liked the guy, really. Yet, it is very likely that I will not vote for him in the primaries though I would feel much better about voting for him in October if he wins the primaries (I would have anyway, but now I will feel better about it). Again, my major grip with him is that he would make a fantastic prime minister, a great manager. It is about the presidential job I am less certain. Still, if he wins in February, HCR can count on me and this blog without any misgivings from me.

Why they want to be president

2011-12-11T13:40:00.001-04:30

Not to bring a discordant note but with now more than month of primary campaign there are only three candidates that came out clearly as to why they want to be president. Interestingly they are still the same three that were clear on that matter in October and still my three favorites: Maria Corina Machado, Diego Arria and Leopoldo Lopez. You may disagree with their vision of the country and the future but you cannot deny them that they have at least a vision for something greater.

There are at least two other candidates that I would love to hear from them something as clear and concise as the three named above. You know who you are.

Guanaguanare

2011-12-10T20:27:00.001-04:30

Guanaguanare

Guanaguanare es un extraño villancico, lleno de la tristeza de la separacion si escuchan la exquisita sobriedad de Jesús Ávila, o el consuelo algo mentiroso de la versión navideña de Nancy Ramos. Y sin embargo es delicadamente evocador de la calma de las mañanas en Sucre, si han tenido la suerte de disfrutarlas, una calma como no la he sentido nunca en otro mar.

Tengo que admitir que este fin de semana mientras saqué al aire mi música navideña, se me anudó la garganta. Así operan las extrañas asociaciones de nuestras mentes, haciendo de una canción un símbolo de todo lo que anda mal en nuestro entorno. Seguramente es una triste coincidencia que esta tonada incluya el nombre de Guanare donde esta semana se unieron en una mugre espantosa tantos aspectos de nuestra miseria. Pero esa mugre nos ha sido impuesta por un régimen que en verdad no ha hecho nada para proteger a los derechos del niño, de las minorías sexuales, de la propiedad, de nuestros derechos básicos. Es cierto que no podemos culpar al chavismo por el machismo, la homofobia, la ignorancia del débil que son la triste herencia de nuestra historia. Pero sí lo podemos culpar por pretender ocuparse de estos asuntos cuando en verdad los agravó mientras perseguía el poder, y el dinero, y el materialismo, que hoy reinan supremos.

Y para completar la semana anoche los malandros fascistas incendiaron la "casa que vence las sombras" mientras que hoy en otra cadena obscena el grotesco tirano de nuestro espíritu jugó con un niñito en disfraz de militar.

Pero Jesus Ávila no nos deja sin un consuelo

Tenue es la luz y alegre la alborada

Guanaguanare

2011-12-10T19:37:00.001-04:30

Guanaguanare

Guanaguanare is an odd Christmas song, full of the pathos of longing if you listen to the exquisite sobriety of Jesus Avila, or fake merry Christmas spirit, but consoling, if you consider the Nancy Ramos version. And yet it is exquisitely atmospheric if you have had the luck to wake up more than once in Sucre where the morning calm is the calm I have never felt elsewhere.

I have to admit that this week end, as I am dusting off my Christmas music, it is hitting a raw nerve. Thus work strange associations who make a single song suddenly embody all that is wrong with your surroundings. Of course, it is a sad coincidence that this magic tune includes the name of the city Guanare where this week the most ugly aspects of misery came up as flotsam. But that flotsam was brought upon us by a regime that has really done nothing to protect children rights, gay rights, property rights, basic rights.... We certainly cannot blame the regime of the machismo, homophobia, disregard for the weak that are the sad heritage of our history. But we can blame it from having paid lip service at best while it made it all the worse in its pursuit of power, and money, and materialism, which now reign supreme.

And to finish it all up last night the fascist thugs set aflame the "house that defeats the shadow" while today in yet another obscene cadena the tyrant of our spirit played with a little boy in military drag.

But Jesús Ávila leaves us a consolation:

Tenue es la luz y alegre la alborada

A preview of October 7, 2012 (or how fascism does not lose elections)

2011-12-10T00:38:00.001-04:30

This was the entrance tonight of the Aula Magna, the major auditorium of the Central University of Venezuela, UCV, a World Heritage site of the UNESCO since 2000 (and for how long now?):

In this picture the pro Chavez students that got trashed in the student body election of today (apparently more than 10 to 1), did not like it, attacked with gunshots and cocktail Molotov to try to seize the ballots and only managed to destroy the voting and counting machines. We are told that ballots are safe and will be counted tomorrow when the situation goes back to "normal". We can anticipate chavismo refusing to recognize the result on any stupid detail that they created themselves tonight in the battle field.

Of course, the "students" that protested and set fire did so with the adequate head gear, not for protection from the flames but to hide their very "democratic" identity. We call that style of "student" encapuchados (the current vice president of Venezuela, Jaua, used to be a noted encapuchado in his student days).

Naked fascism, mask or no mask.

The background is very simple:

No matter how hard chavismo has tried, it has not been able to get the upper hand of the UCV. Even though its professorial section used to vote for the left in its regular election, it has been voting consistently, and with wider margins, against the candidates of the regime who now do not even reach a third fo the vote.

Same thing in the student body where pro Chavez lists are trashed by increasing margins, even when the non chavista students run on separate lists (after all, the students have very specific ideas more or less to the left but all democratic contrary to the increasing fascism on the other side).

The regime has tried other means of pressure to force the surrender of the UCV, from where after all come a large fraction of the new apparatchiks that really, really would love to go back as the masters in the UCV when they get back there at some point (not to mention that they would gladly offer the UCV as a trophy to Chavez, and a validation of their submission to the regime). these means of pressure have included budget freezes for now several years n spite of a galloping inflation (most research is now stopped at the UCV), tricks to try to make service workers votes equal to those of professors in deciding what the curriculum should be, etc, etc... All still mostly contained because the constitution of 1999 guarantees the functional autonomy of certain campus in Venezuela.

Kevin and Hugo

As a consequence the academic level of the UCV has suffered, the World Heritage university has degraded because the regime does not give the support it should be, pleased to destroy anything that stands in the way of Chavez no matter what.

What triggered the assault tonight has been brewing for a few weeks now. A certain chavista student, Kevin Avila, was filmed attacking the rectors of the university during a formal function in campus to commemorate, if memory serves me well, an anniversary of it being declared Worl Heritage. The attack included bodily threats to the rectors, tossing of food around, copious amount of insults, etc... The UCV decided to start an expulsion sanction of one year but the Venezuelan high court promptly stopped that once Chavez himself held high the hand of Avila as a hero.

And so they went to elections that they lost. Which did not stop Avila tonight to promptly declare to the state radio, RNV, that the attack was from a rival opposition list that was defeated. Forgetting of course to mention that his own list was duly trashed, arguing that the school were he was running, the most "chavista" one in the UCV, was rumored to be also an anti Chavez major electoral upset. which by itself would explain the pro Chavez attackers since they were about to lose the last bastion they held, the school of Social Work, an obvious magnet for pro Chavez students that hope to get a job in public administration.... Such a repudiation of Kevin Avila after Chavez himself promoted him could not possibly be accepted, you must understand.

Consequences

Now we have a clear advance on how will chavismo react in October 2012 if it loses the general election.

Now we have the first clear, unequivocal demonstration that chavismo has grown beyond communism into a bona fide fascism. True communists manage better such situations, knowing well in advance that they are going to lose and thus taking precautions to stop the elections of make the necessary previous arrangements not to lose. Fascists apparently tend to believe that they may win and thus need to resort to such acts of violence. Since there were already bombs thrown today in Campus to try to stop elections we must conclude that chavismo is now divided into a commie group and a facho group. Though the end result is basically the same: totalitarian abuse.

I think that it is time to make people take notice, here, in Venezuela but also outside of the country, starting by informing the local embassies as to what is brewing.

We must also note that media was very slow, even reluctant to cover the events. Self censorship is alive and well. One year ago Globovision would have interrupted its normal programming to report live. Tonight Patricia Velazquez movie presentation was not interrupted, the host satisfying themselves with occasional verbal updates.

Leopoldo Lopez and the reality

2011-12-08T21:01:00.001-04:30

Two days ago I did not think that I was getting the idea of a theme: how politicians deal with reality in Venezuela. But today, with a High Court (TSJ) idiotic, unfair, unconstitutional ruling and the coincidence of a new ad launched by the team of Leopoldo Lopez we get a new opportunity to discuss what is really at stake.

Globovision has been fined for doing its job during the jail revolt at El Rodeo last June. Besides noting that no one else of the media that was covering the event was fined or even questioned, Globovision not only got a fine that will put in the Chapter 11 bench, but also its workers were rather copiously accused of all sorts of things on the state media, without any right of reply whatsoever. Not only Globovision refuses to pay the deadly fine and is using all of the means to appeal, but its workers signed on their own a recourse that they submitted to the TSJ as to their victim status in all of this mess.

Today the TSJ rejected the recourse form Globovision workers. The rationale that they used are extraordinarily telling on how degraded is the judicial system in Venezuela, how servile it has become and how it is there only to protect the regime and to sink the hopes for justice from anyone pretending to seek mere redress from governmental abuses. See, as I have written in the past, the real coup d'état, the one that allowed for the regime to set it grip on the country was late December 1999 when during the Christmas recess Chavez changed all the justices of the high court to put in his cronies. All went downhill since.

Which were those reasons of the TSJ today? First, that not all of the signers were present in front of the judicial clerk when the recourse was submitted. That the TSJ security asked for only 8 of them to go to the chamber is totally ignored by the justices even though the presence downstairs of the journalists is documented on video. Trickery and material details are now used routinely to dodge any real issue. Second, even though the journalists of Globovision are constantly harassed and constantly insulted on state media the court pretends that none of their human rights has been threatened. And third, the best part, the court used a sentence of 2005 to claim that in fact only politicians have freedom of expression and thus journalists, we suppose, cannot speak their mind or seek redress. I am not too sure how to evaluate completely that as the decision is not yet made public, we only have the lawyer of Globovison to explain it to us so far, but there is no reason to deny the intent of the TSJ in refusing to hear petitions of Globovision or its workers in order eventually to close the last free media left in Venezuela. This is the order from above and the TSJ executes it.

It is difficult for people outside of Venezuela to understand up to what point the judicial system has ceased to work here. Not only any recourse you put against the state has 98% chances of failing, forcing you to move to international courts, but the corruption that goes along makes even individual civil cases decisions depending on whether one of the parties is willing to pay its way out of trouble. This is what makes Venezuela a true dictatorship today because even though there are some form of elections, and even though information sorts of circulates, the results of the vote and the consequences of the information are voided by the courts if there is any reason that these could affect the power of the regime. It is the new hallmark of what the XXI century neo-totalitarian state is all about.

It thus really great today that one of the candidates for the opposition primary manages the trick of creating a political advertisement that ties his aspirations with his deep personal knowledge of what is perhaps the biggest problem of the country. I have to admit that after my depression of the news on Globovision, watching this ad premiere tonight lift my heart. This ad is simply brilliant: Leopoldo Lopez takes his own issue and brings it forward making it the issue of all of us in a way that can be understood clearly, at least at a primal emotional level. We may not know, remember, the issue that put him down, but he stood up again and kept fighting, scoring victories and offering his skill for us to overcome our own misery, to help us in our own doomed fights. Or something like that but we do not care anymore because at the end we find ourselves trusting that man.

"There are those that ask me whether it is true that when I win the election they will not let me rule. Do not let them confuse you: that is what they want you to think. The problems are not the obstacles that they put in front of me and that I have overcome. They want to corner all of us, you, me, our future. Nothing and nobody is above the people. Do not let them fool you, the one that will rule is whomever you elect. We are going to demonstrate that the popular will [Voluntad Popular] cannot be stopped by anyone."

[Note also how brilliant the ad is in that Leopoldo takes was is hobbling his campaign the most these days, that he may not be able to be sworn in, to make it a strength!]

I personally thing that this is perhaps the biggest problem in Venezuela, the one that stops us from finding a solution to any other of our pressing problems, stopping even the regime in finding solutions because the lack of justice perversely ends up working both ways even if naively one side thinks that it is benefiting from so much corruption. When Chavez decides to remove someone, that (ex?)-chavista is no better off than us who have opposed Chavez since day -1. Misery of even a worse nature becomes his or her lot.

It is essential for the Unidad candidates to express such a knowledge of the situation of the country even though I doubt that any other will be able to be as razor sharp as Lopez is above. We are comforted because even if we do not know how he will fix the problem, that he understands it so well makes us confident that he will find a way.

Again, not only a brilliant advertisement (to whomever thought of it) but also a big moment in the campaign just as Arria's position in the first debate was a peak. Now two candidates have been able to demonstrate their stature, their grasp of what is at stake. We are now waiting for the others to make their move and reassure voters like me that we can trust them and follow them on D-day wherever it is we need to follow them.

VN&V en Facebook: Interpretando Venezuela

2011-12-07T22:18:00.001-04:30

Pues bien, me rendí a Facebook y abrí una página alli para el blog. Pero hay razones.

Para empezar mucha gente le gusta Facebook, algo que no entiendo muy bien pero algo que es verdad (todavía me cuesta digerir Twitter aunque estoy avanzando algo en ese asunto, a pesar mio).

Segundo, si bien escribir en español no ha sido un fracaso (lo leen mas o menos la mitad de los que leen los artículos en inglés), tampoco ha llegado a cumplir mis deseos, y, sobre todo, cualquier progreso en ese campo esta limitado por el formato de Blogger. Por ejemplo, para evitar sobrecargar un blog que ya se va acercando a 4,000 posts, no puedo resaltar artículos de actualidad en Venezuela. Los lectores en inglés se espantarían. También parece que los lectores en español son mas renuentes a dejar comentarios en el blog que los que escriben en inglés. Tal vez sea el formato mas formal de un blog, tal vez sea que no se atreven a criticar mi prosa no tan castiza, tal vez....

Por lo tanto voy a seguir publicando aquí primero los artículos de VÑV pero con un link inmediato a Facebook. Asi aparecerán los artículos simultáneamente en ambas páginas y los que solamente estén interesados en textos en español, pues no mas sigan la página de facebook. Pero también pondré en Facebook otro material que no cuadra en el blog y que tal vez sea de interés para algunos de ustedes.

Pero la guinda de la torta será para los que están ya en Facebook porque ahora podrán comentar a su antojo sin que ningún gringo malcriado les agüe la fiesta. :)

Por favor, visiten, hagan sugerencias, comenten, lo que sea (sin olvidar un click en "me gusta"). Para eso es Facebook, que se diviertan, que critiquen a su antojo, que este blog me lo protejo :p)

Pollster Keller throws a big stone in everybody's pond

2011-12-06T18:06:00.001-04:30

My favorite pollster (which is not saying much), and apparently Globovison's official one now, has just published his latest findings, from the first two weeks of November field work. In other words, we can call that one the first significant poll since the primary campaign of the Unidad started though it certainly will not asses the impact of the first debate, and even less the second one.

The good news is that there is no surprise. The end of the "I am sick" effect of Chavez is coming and people are getting back to their everyday misery. As such Chavez numbers are starting to go south again. The bad news, if you will, is that there is still that 30%+ hard core chavista that will vote for him no matter what depraved action he may commit. But so do work cults and chavismo today is a cult whose high priests are the ones gaining wealth through corruption. Or something like that, I am stopping to care as the effect is the same: a destroyed country. But I digress, let's get back to the poll highlights.

The first thing that I want to note is that according to his poll Keller says that crime is the overriding issue. But this an urban area poll, and the Gumilla center poll specific to the lower classes sectors ((E and D) was that getting a real job was their real problem. As such my first conclusion is that Keller's poll is probably too directed towards the middle and up (C, B and A) and thus maybe not as representative as it should be. However this is good news for Leopoldo Lopez because the bulk of primary election voters should be coming from C, B and A as it is not clear yet whether the Perez and Capriles strategy to woo E and D chavista to vote for the primary will work out.

A positive thing for the opposition is that in the last 4 quarters more than 80% of the folks report having experienced scarcity of some food item, mainly milk. So if A, B, and C report that you may be sure that D and E are in the front line of bitching at that. And the cause is clearly seen by the population which blame Chavez expropriation policies for scarcity and underemployment by 61% against the 25% of the faithful (note: 25%, which means that even his solid 30+ ain't as solid as one may expect).

In graphs the decline of Chavez is clear no matter how well made the poll is (reminder: in Venezuela look at trends, never at numbers in polls or you are going to be always disappointed). Click to enlarge, explication below the graph.

This is the long term trending poll of Keller by trimester when data is available (observe that some quarters are missing). When the dissatisfaction reigns, red line, Chavez is in trouble: 2002 coup, 2007 referendum lost, 2008 and 2010 electoral losses (but 2009 blue small peak gave him the eternal reelection referendum). Now the dissatisfaction line has been up for two years in spite of already one year of "mision vivienda" and other such crap.

Which brings us to the personal popularity of Chavez which sorts of follow the above except on punctual cases like the "cancer boost" in the third trimester of 2011 at the end. A sharp favorable blue peak that is already getting ready to cross the red line of unpopularity.

This is a very interesting graph because it follows the oil boom that started in 2003: easy money in the streets, at least for some. The blue line of people who think the general situation is from average to good has been up since 2003 (remember, ignorance allows many to think that all is fine just because they get a bag from Mercal for free on occasion). But look how it has started to drop sharply this year as finally the effect of two years of recession is catching up with the hoi polloi. And this in spite of pumping more money in the streets through Mision Vivienda....

The questions regarding the primaries say that 41% are "certain" to vote in the primary. I doubt that it will be the percentage; however it predicts a good turnout and I have written in an older post that the Unidad primary will be considered a success if they manage to have at least 2 million votes (which means that the Unidad candidate has 4 million as starting capital). So we are on track.

The big news here is that Keller confirms his earlier finding that Chavez can be beaten at the polls; and that now three of the primary candidates are perceived as able to beat Chavez.

Capriles, Perez and Lopez could beat in early November Chavez, though only Capriles escaped the margin of error of the poll, around 3%. I do not see how the primary campaign could change that result, if anything it will make it easier for any of these three to reach the 50% intention of vote as the general election campaign will start in March.

This graph is the first complete polling study of the 5 primary candidates (Medina was not in yet). It is a graph to be taken with a grain of salt because in the earlier quarters polling data was not as strict as it is becoming now. Also, there is no debate influence in that poll. That is why Arria appears only in the 4th trimester whereas the other 4 were already followed, directly or indirectly (Keller does not admit it but we know better, don't we?).

There is no surprise really. Perez started his dramatic growth once he became the official candidate. I would not extrapolate a continuous growth but he is in good shape and going up. Lopez was declining until the IACHR gave its ruling and he showed a big rebound. Capriles floats up and and down above the rest but that is what you expect for someone who run alone for a few months until his two main rivals could finally become full fledged candidates. Maria Corina Machado is way down but her debating skills should give her a 10% next time, essential if she wants to be credible in January.

Thus as I wrote two posts ago, the election is set to polarize between Capriles and either Perez or Lopez. My big concern here is that considering that there is no second round balloting I truly hope that whomever wins does it with at least 30% of the ballots otherwise..... And right now this is not happening, early November or today after two debates.

Arria and the reality

2011-12-06T09:24:00.000-04:30

I feel sorry for us as a country when I hear Diego Arria and the non-response he gets. Last night for example Alo Ciudadano took great pains to explain that we needed to make a campaign plan of solutions, inclusion and what not, from El Ciudadano himself to Ramon Guillermo Aveledo as his main guest. I do not mean to defend Arria here, he does go overboard in his anti Chavez campaign even if he is quite justified in doing so. What concerns me here is that we are having two sides opposing each other more and more inside the Unidad and that if the situation is not controlled adequately we could lose it all. If according to the Unidad spokespersons the solution is not to follow Arria, it certainly is not the one offered by Capriles and Perez, pretending all is fine and easily fixable. All is not fine.

Yes, I know, I have been ranting about that a lot, but the more the campaign advances, the more the country spirals into final decomposition, the more I think that Arria is closer from the truth than Capriles. Or rather that both are wrong.

As I have already written Diego Arria would be a great transition president (emphasis intended), and since I wrote it, he coincidentally campaigned on that (maybe he reads my blog?). His solution is basically what is required for Venezuela: a transition government whose members know that they will assume the political costs of all that needs to be done, likely sacrificing their future political career. In other words, a government that offers itself to the Republic, for its salvation, in sacrifice at the altar if you forgive me the cliché. And I admire Arria for offering himself instead of remaining in his cozy US retreat (he got attacked by chavista thugs once again last night, including tear gas inside an auditorium).

This may sound melodramatic but it is not. There follows a short list of measures that would be required to be taken in the first 6 months of an eventual new government. As you read the list make your pick of at least 50% that are a must in the first 6 months.

Economy:
-Increase the price of gas by at least ten folds.
- Increase utilities price to more realistic levels and start making all pay something even if if it a token payment.
- Remove price controls on all but a few items, noting that within a year even those items will be out of price control.
- Revert land ownership in at least 50% of the Chavez seizures, even if it means putting them up on the auction block and paying the old owners with that.
- Start a progressive dismantling of CADIVI while creating a system of semi protectionism that should last for a few years until Venezuela recovers some of its producing capacity, or at the very least until we are producing 75% of our food again.
- Start the privatization process of some of the stuff that Chavez grabbed.

Social:
- Stop some of the Misiones, revamp the rest into a system that is designed to help the 30% more vulnerable part of the country. That is all the government can afford it if want to have enough cash to pay our debts and restart the economy, rebuild our infrastructure.
- Revamp a retirement system so that no one gets from the state more than 2 times the minimum wage no matter how much you paid in Social Security taxes. True, past exemptions will have to be maintained but it should be made clear that in an European way retirement now will be for all AFTER 60 something, with limited benefits, starting for those who are below 50 today.

Legal:
- Confront the judicial power forcing them to start working or to resign. Admittedly the crisis that would start might require at the very least a referendum and possibly a Constitutional Assembly.
- The drug traffic problem is too advanced but if the government does not take at least the step of purging a couple of dozens of high ranking officers and investigate them, Mexico is ahead for us.
- Revert brutally the centralization of Chavez, send to the states, chavistas or not, a bigger allotment of money and bigger responsibilities. This may be obvious but after a few years of centralization people are into the habit of "asking Chavez" and they might do against governors and mayors what they did not dare to do against Chavez.

International:
- Break up with Cuba, send back half of its contingent and have the courage to keep financing Cuba at a lower level for a few months in exchange of their silent departing.
- Get ready to confront Brazil, China and seek forgiveness and repentance with Europe, Colombia and the US.
- Manage a debt repayment plan that will include the investigation of the contracts that such debt required. Get ready to default if needed.

Security:
- Start building jails
- Finance a doubling of police corps in Venezuela
- Force local authorities to participate and arm them as needed, even in chavista governors hands.
- Without forgetting to explain that other ways to reduce crime through jobs and education will take years and that some repression is required meanwhile, because such measures are unfortunately going to affect a lot the lower classes where crime is now almost a necessity.

Etc., etc., ....

Now that you have this short an partial list to be embraced the day after you take office ask yourself the following questions:

- What president or political party can survive such a set of measures that are going to alienate for sure his opposition and his own supporters?
- Will the new president have also the time to deal with pothole repairs and school repainting?
- Can we afford an improvised character at the presidency, someone who will start his decision making process thinking about his eventual reelection?
- Can we afford a president that does not know how to find people adequate for the job, and not willing to boldly delegate and hope for the best?
- And let's not get into the possible scenario of confronting a massive electoral fraud, bare chested, at the front of protest marches, Toledo style.

In all truth I do not know if Arria is up to that daunting job. I think that he will know how to delegate, he will know how to deal with foreign creditors, he may even know how to tackle crime to make it a little bit less aggravating but when I hear that he is already discussing presidential reelection and cutting down the term to 5 years I wonder if he is connected enough to our reality. At the very least he is fully aware that after 3 years he would be toast and unable to retain office. But his mission may be done then and we should all be the better.

But when I look at the others I am worried further.

Maria Corina at least has the merit to show her awareness of the situation but she is making it a personal match with Chavez as if it were enough to remove him from office. True, it is sine qua non but there is more to it today than Chavez.

Medina has the right feel but he is mentally too disperse as we will need a president focused as a gamma ray knife.

Perez and Capriles do not even give us the impression that they are aware how deliquescent the country has become in a single year, and not even due to Chavez illness. This sudden degradation is the result of a willful process even if the extent might be surprising chavismo itself. Only Lopez by harping at the security issue shows that some awareness has hit him.

I will repeat it once again: favoring the Capriles or Perez campaigns as they are is a disservice not only to the country but to them. If the strategy of pothole fixing were to prevail and beat Chavez (which I personally doubt since at the end an "efficient Chavez" will never trump the real thing) let's think about what type of mandate they will have when the hard choices will have to be taken, when Luisa Estela starts striking down their decrees, when Luisa Ortega refuses to pursue criminals, when parliament refuses to vote credits the way they do for Chavez today as if nothing, when chavista governors refuse to follow and assume their responsibilities, when PDVSA goes on strike because it refuses to accept at least a 20% of payroll cut when 2/3 should be fired on the spot..

I am sorry if I am a nagging Cassandra but Capriles and Perez are forging right now the sword they will fall upon and as a perverse contrast Arria may be unwillingly helping them. But at least Arria's role is accidental whereas Perez and Capriles seem to seek suicide.

But there is still two months to go, let's allow ourselves the moderate optimism that things may get better message wise. I personally doubt very much that Venezuela will set the precedent of winning the primaries in the center and then win the general election on the extremes where Chavez will push it, the more so if the primary winner is already in the center. I am certain that it would be easier to move to the center starting February 13 2012 than avoid being pushed to the extreme because you already wasted all of your centrist arguments in the primary campaign.

----------------------------

Added in proof.

I wrote this last night and decided to sleep over it. And yet, once editing was made I went ahead to publish. However I want to add something I read this morning in El Universal which in a distant way sustains what I am writing above. Namely that promising efficiency may not be enough to rule and may not even be enough to win in the end. Capriles and Perez take note.

What to look for in a debate: a cold eyed perspective

2011-12-05T11:53:00.001-04:30

I have an urge to yet again revisit this subject because last night I noticed quite a little bit of partisanship. Even though I have low activity in Twitter-land I still get enough re-tweets and stuff to observe that for example Maria Corina Machado generates all sorts of passions, from the bitterly negative approach of Jose Guerra who makes his own support of Capriles look the support from Caracas Chronicles almost an objective one, to the near ringing endorsement of whatever she says by Garcia Mendoza of the BVC.

Heck, I even myself indulged this time in a winner search by putting up a poll that was limited in time, just to gauge the immediate reactions of the few readers that this blog gets on a Sunday night. That is, I am not really interested in reading detailed polls as to who won or lost because in this sort of non-debate debates what matters the most is who benefited the most from it, and that does not go necessarily with the winner label. Amen that I called it for Leopoldo but readers went to MCM unabashedly! :)

Let's have a little thought exercise if you will. In the table below I list first the perceived winners according to this blog and in the second part the perceived beneficiaries of the debate, that is, those who did not win but stood to benefit the most from the debate result. All subjectively mine. The higher your total the better off they are.

Putting aside the subjectivity of the table and its arbitrary numbering and lack of dramatic difference because most of them did good once and bad another, you can see that if we go to gut feeling MCM won, should be ahead, or at least climbing, in any sensible poll. But if we try to do the more subtle calculation then HCR seem to have benefited the most from both debates even though he did not win any, not even close. And is still ahead in polls as far as I know.

The problem here for the casual observer in search of blood speeding emotions is that MCM may have won but people perceive her as alone, no one endorsing her, as unable on her own to do the changes that we all agree must be done even if we hate to admit it. Leopoldo is almost as alone but because he got at least the support of PVzl he seems more credible. And Perez is the most underwhelming of the lot but, in the general perception of things, that AD and Copei are behind him makes us think that well, he has a chance to fulfill his promises, as anemic as those might be.

I hope that this helps folks understand why even though I called it for Arria and Lopez I still think that Capriles is ahead, benefited the most from these debates in spite of his blandness; and that Leopoldo is now the lone one that could really threaten his lead if Perez starts deflating.

At any rate, remember that we are not yet on December 12 and that this means that two full months of campaign are ahead and thus there are gazillions of opportunities for any of them to pull a McCain, to speak in contemporary terms :)

The second debate non debate

2011-12-04T23:17:00.001-04:30

Since I twitted it live (@danielduquenal) I have no desire to go overboard on comment. A quick item by item to let you know why I think Leopoldo Lopez won tonight.

Venevision. The big loser tonight. They set it up as if it were some game show, all bright and shinny and bad judges all from the home field. Pathetic. But at least it will not displease their chavista masters too much because I bet a lot of people got turned off. The previous debate was more rustic but more heartfelt and thus way better. But all is not lost, at the very least the chavista hoi polloi now knows what is missing from their side: questioning! And that can only but help the Unidad. I have the feeling that Venevision is not going to try that stunt again....

Pablo Medina. Earnest but all over the board, inconsistent. He did not even lose the debate, he was not there.

Maria Corina Machado. She had a strong start but she seemed to fade as the debate went on. On points she might be the winner but somehow they did not add up.

Diego Arria. He was perceived as the winner last time but this time he was not as provocative, played more the statesman. I suppose that since Venevision is a national broadcast he felt more inhibited? He was good enough but after last time people expected more of the same and as such that perception played against him this time. Unfair but that is what show business is all about and Venevision setup was a show.

Pablo Perez. He lost tonight. If sticking to the script may work for Capriles it is still too early for him to play that card. Last time he was probably the one who benefited the more from the debate by proving that he was more than just a provincial governor. Tonight he proved that he was not much more than that, and boring. He should have taken his chances to score against Capriles, his main rival in the electoral pie, but he may have lost his chance. Hopefully for him tomorrow being a working day many may not have stayed until the end.

Henrique Capriles. In a strange turning of the tables he may have won tonight by assuming the expectation of Perez last time. Capriles strategy is not to take a chance but prove that on occasion a little bit of blood runs into his veins. The risk tonight was to appear too dull but he avoided it and as such of the six he may be the one that did the most good to his position as the one benefiting the most from an anticipated Perez drop in polls. But playing the safe front runner strategy of not taking chances does not always work until the end, somebody should tell him.

Leopoldo Lopez. Last time he was expected to win and he, well, sort of lost. This time around he was expected to be more strident, more aggressive, but he resisted and came out the better, winning this debate but not by much. Actually he was the only one trying to turn this fake debate system into a real debate of sorts by asking Capriles to be his education minister which maybe the high point of the evening besides MCM description of Chavez. As far as I saw it tonight, there are only two guys who are presidential material and tonight it showed with Arria and Lopez. The other ones for all of their qualities did not look presidential tonight and on this respect Lopez helped his cause a lot tonight, at least with the more intellectual lot which is unfortunately the smaller segment of the electorate.

Effect? Little and a lot. On the surface all were good enough and none apparently hurt his or her chances (except the already dismal odds for Medina which were made worse). But the electoral trends may be setting soon and will do so under tonight's impression as Xmas comes around.

1) Perez is not up to Capriles and thus this last one will benefit and can start hunting on Perez grounds
2) I have the strange feeling that for all the good things MCM said tonight it was her swan song. But she should not complain, Medina had his first and swan song tonight...
3) Those who do not want Capriles will have now to chose between Lopez and Arria and Lopez will grow by being the non-dull-Capriles because Arria is still perceived as having little chance to prevail.

Thus December will be crucial for Capriles and Lopez, the first one in conveying the inevitability of his candidature and Lopez in making sure people see him as the only other choice, making January a contest between them for the top tier.

Then again the fickleness of Venezuelan politics........ I am still reluctant to rule anyone out already except perhaps Medina.

Two polls for fun

2011-12-04T19:06:00.001-04:30

On the right I put up two polls for fun.

One pre debate that closes at 9:30 PM as to whom you think will "win". And the other open longer as to who do you think did "win" after all.

AGAIN: this is for fun, as the nature of the show is really not to destroy each other, not a real debate to the kill. We just want to express who do we think accounted for hismelf or her the best.

Debate tonight

2011-12-04T18:39:00.001-04:30

The Unidad candidates are holding their second debate tonight. And of all places at Venevision who is either sensing the wind shifting or is goign to sabotage the event for Chavez. After all, let's face it, Venevision has been working for chavismo more or less directly since 2007. But let's give them the benefit of the doubt tonight, hoping that they finally found their way to Damascus. And thank them for taking the risk, becasue in Venezuela ti is a risk, to show nation wide 2 hours of opposition talk to a country where at lest 40% of the people have not heard anything straight and live from an anti Chaevz point of view. Enjoy it becasue it may well be your only chance if the debates head back to the Globovision cableTV ghetto.

There will be two novelties compared to last time. It will be more professional from a major network and it will be coming from journalists that will this time around ask the questions instead of the students. Somehow I am doubtful that the chosen journalists will do a better job. But gain, let's give them the benefit of the doubt.

And there will be one major change as this time around we will have 6 guys since Pablo Medina will be allowed to join the other five, Arria, Perez, Lopez, Radonski and Machado.

I do not know how good I can be at that but I will try to do a live twitter following so if you have no access to Venevision you may always try me at @danielduquenal . I promise not to tweet more than every ten minutes average, when and if something significant happens. Starts at 9 PM Venezuela time.

CELAC-anthus

2011-12-03T20:05:00.001-04:30

Raul at the summit?

Sometimes stuff is still born, no matter how desperately the parents of the creature try to breathe life in it. We saw such another sad spectacle this week-end in Caracas where, minus Lula, Chavez alone could not manage to give life to that silliness that was "born" a couple of years ago in Cancun: the CELAC or in English, the Confederation of Latin American and Caribbean States.

All was not wasted for Chavez, he got an ego boost, he repeated N+1 times that he was cured, he put up a show for the 30% of us that are congenitally unable to see any fault in him. This being said the rest of Venezuela made fun of the whole thing, when not outraged not only at the expense but at the inconvenience for Caracas to hold such an event. After all, Chavez went to the extent to cancel Baseball Venezuelan League games and give public workers the day off Friday in a desperate effort to unclog somewhat the streets of Caracas. That did not stop a pot banging event of some resonance to take place in Caracas Friday at 8 PM. Certainly he did not fool any foreign visitor because, you know, they get reports from the embassies including Consuls shot in the crime wave to scarcity of food and the hours lost in a car for any errand.

The thing is not only still born but it has the strange feel of dusty fossils that one has no idea what they are for, be it a Raul Castro talking about democracy, or a Chavez talking cancer as if it were now in formaldehyde. The thing cannot prosper because it has killed its original purpose of a small group of Latin Countries with some muscle that could help other country in trouble. Now it is an ersatz from Anguilla to Brazil whose only apparent purpose it s to exclude the USA and Canada. I mean, the US ancestral grudge I can understand up to a point, but Canada? And never mind the dreadful symbolism of holding a meeting of "democrats" in the main military camp (literally, under a tent) of the corrupt and drug trafficking army in what looks more and more a narco-military regime.

Still, many came but many had reasons of their very own. Not to mention that head of states love to go to these summits because they can do a lot of business in hotel hallways, saving their country's cash from other trips that they would have to take just to meet so and so. Let's take a few examples. Miguel tells us clearly that Chavez desperate to have a few real head of states attend decided to pay off the long festering Mexican Cemex nationalization. Calderon announced at the very end he would come, only after the agreement that should have been signed 3 years ago was finally done. He spent at most 100 K to recover for CEMEX 600 millions. Not bad.

We could say the same thing for Dilma Roussef of Brazil that could not postpone anymore a big meeting with Chavez. Lula would have visited Chavez at least twice since he got sick, Dilma is always pushing it off, having things way more important to do. But this week she came to tie up a few dead ends such as the PDVSA collaboration for a refinery in Pernambuco, that obligingly EFE informs us PDVSA giving cash insurance for the project. I kid you not.

Colombia's Santos, who was already early this week in Caracas, attended to make sure that the CELAC would not get any ideas at interfering in its internal strife against the FARC. See, the troubles of the on the run FARC could be alleviated if an "initiative of the CELAC" (read, FARC supporters Castro and Chavez) were to offer a mediation which without doubt would put an immediate stop at the current successful offensive of the Colombian government. Right there you know that the CELAC has no future in solving any of Latin America problems!

The possible lone voice of sanity in this gabfest was Piñera of Chile who commented that the best of the CELAC is yet to come, a diplomatic way to say that right now it is totally useless. Of course the guy is certainly more serious than some of the other clowns attending: tomorrow he flies to real meeting in Mexico, for the second summit of the Pacific alliance. These four countries, Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico, are coordinating their efforts where it really matters, to counterbalance the rising influence of Asia on the Pacific rim. Probably Dilma would have liked to supervise that one instead, a development counter Brazil hegemonic interests in the region which are not going to be served well by the way CELAC is turning out so far...

And others simply came because Venezuela footed the bill for their trip (you know who you are), because they wanted to see on their own how sick Chavez was and how long they could keep expecting an occasional alimony, or some other equally irrelevant reason. At any rate neither the US, nor Canada or the OAS seem to have lost any sleep on this issue, probably secretly hoping for the soon to be demise of the OAS so that they will not have to bankroll it anymore..

One thing is certain and that is the message these people gave the Venezuelan people: we do not give a shit about your problems, your lack of democracy, your wanna be dictator. As long as Chavez is going to give us freebies you are on your own.

Foreign Policy top 100 thinkers of the year

2011-12-01T21:25:00.001-04:30

What better way to start commemoration and list month (December) than noting the magazine Foreign Policy top 100 thinkers. Only two Latino Americans made it, and a well deserved choice: Yoani Sanchez and our very own Teodoro Petkoff. Two anti Castro and anti Chavez thinkers. And in the list try to find one who seriously would consider defend Chavez or Castro.
ERRATA: although I scanned the list twice I missed Dilma Roussef in it. So I suppose that I was wrong in assuming that no one in that list would defend Castro or Chavez. Not that she will necessarily be willing to do so since she is less keen on be seen with Chavez than Lula was, but she will defend Brazil big business in Venezuela and if it means hugging Chavez publicly once a year as she did yesterday, so be it. Yet, considering her rather significant reversal on Lula support to Iran, I have still hope that she will dump Chavez when necessary.

PPT, PPT and ppt

2011-11-30T08:46:00.001-04:30

Yesterday the High Court (TSJ) ruled on a matter where they should not be ruling: they decided that the PPT direction was not kosher, dismissed it, allowed for three "groups" and barred all of them from supporting any candidate until they sorted matters out. That is, if one of the fractions has enough money to block the other two they could manage to make sure that the PPT cannot present Henri Falcon for reelection in Lara. That other parties can sponsor him is irrelevant, in a perverse way.
What to make of this? First, we can dismiss out of hand an elaborate theory as to the ever dividing left. That constant splintering of Venezuelan parties is not an appanage of the left. After all, the left itself started as a splintering of AD.... Never mind that UNT and PJ are splinter groups of sorts, having a conjoint splinter in VP. This is just the way political parties live in a country where caudillos are the hope of any grouping to reach power, except that they cannot ever agree on a caudillo making that disagreement pass often for democratic debate.

No, this is just an act of vindictiveness from chavismo who after beating and abusing the PPT for years are all surprised when the majority of its members decide to leave Chavez. It is nothing else but the syndrome of the battered spouse. If anything we should give credit to the PPT to break up with chavismo when it was yet far from clear that the opposition was going to build a unity platform solid enough to challenge Chavez. And a credit to the Unidad that the PPT decided after a lot of reflection to cast its faint future with them.

If to this you observe that chavismo latest attempt at building a grand coalition of el pueblo for Chavez is not finding any serious taker beside the Communists (and with reticence), then you can understand that the idea grew to pay the lawyers of a malcontent faction of the PPT in order to try to get the PPT to join the (still?) born again Polo Patriotico. With side benefits such as weakening the standing of the most hated governor of Lara behind which more and more pepetistas are rallying as their only chance to scratch the few scarce electoral seats available to them. See, no matter what the discontent PPT achieve, one can be certain that Chavez will not give them a single governorship position, and probably no mayor seat either. But money? Very likely....

This is not the first time that chavismo has tried to butt in what is not its concern (I mean, if stolen money inside a party was the matter we could understand the TSJ getting involved at some point). But in all democratic history when a party splits the largest group gets to keep the name. Even in Venezuela although there might be a legal battle for the name (1). But forbidding the PPT to even run candidates is simply ridiculous and yet another demonstration of how low chavista thugs are willing to go for revenge, for political expediency, just because they can get away with it.

In practical purpose it may mean nothing much: the wronged side, the one of Henri Falcon will run for office anyway and if needed will create a movement or something for which I will obligingly sign just as I did for Arria or Machado: small but significant movements should have the right to run for election and get trashed if they so do wish. And if it is a matter to stop the ridiculous minority side to run under PPT colors I am pretty sure lawyers will manage to stop the PPT-Chavez to join the Polo Patriotico until it is meaningless. Which is probably any time soon as the Polo is turning out fast into a fake grouping of people wanting money for something.

1) famous divisions of Venezuelan history

1962 with Leoni who had to run under the black color instead of the traditional white of AD.

1967 when the MEP left AD but AD kept its colors and flag and name.

1992 when Causa R, one of the multiple splinters of the left grew big enough to almost win the election next year. Causa R promptly split to give birth to the PPT.

Etc... If you feel confused I have already written the field guide of Venezuelan political derivatives.

Primaries shenanigans (+ new feature)

2011-11-29T11:16:00.001-04:30

It is time for a short update before the next primary presidential debate of the Unidad rolls around next week end, if confirmed. Nothing really major has happened, except that the number of candidates has gone up from 5 to 6 with the inclusion of Pablo Medina. This is not expected to change anything as Medina at best would have some influence in Bolivar, Caracas, Zulia and Aragua.

It is too early to make any evaluation of sorts although I have the feeling at this point that the only regions still up for grabs is Oriente and Guyana, and thus the primary will be decided there. But we will discuss that when the time comes. Otherwise, for the rest of this update we will discuss the potential crisis that could fall on the Unidad anytime, all of its own making if you ask me.

The big problem facing the Unidad right now is that when it established its operating rules for the primaries it was working on the assumption that all elections would be held in December 2012. Now, the CNE has decided to split it in three, presidential in October 2012, governors December 2012 and mayors with their councils in April 2013 (maybe...). And yet the Unidad is refusing to change its calendar on the obvious: postpone the primaries for mayor to at the very least June, or even January 2013. Whether Chavez loses, 3 months campaign would be enough, the more so that more than half districts will be decided by consensus, without a primary, and thus already in campaign before the respective primary. But forcing upon mayoral candidates elected in February 2012 a 14 months wait is, well, ridiculous. And possibly damaging as candidates may look worn out, passé, before the legal campaign starts.

And yet, there is an even worse time bomb because the hurried search for mayoral primary candidates has revealed some incipient fissures of the Unidad, in particular from AD and Primero Justicia.

This week end I was in Caracas and my contact in Voluntad Popular invited me to the launching of their candidates for Caracas mayoral jobs. So I went, why not? It is always amusing to watch politics in action when you are just an interested observer at best.

Do not worry if you do not know all the faces, there was one, on the right, for El Hatillo that I did not know either. My point is that there is an interesting story for at least two of them.

Grateron on the left. He is currently mayor of Chacao, the designated heir of Lopez. He won his seat convincingly in a 4 way race with 48%. No primaries were held as the opposition went divided in the safest district of Venezuela. His closest challenger was Ramon Muchacho of PJ who got only 27%. No contest, not even close. Grateron did manage a decent tenure in spite of all sorts of obstacles, to the point that this week end he inaugurated a very decent cultural center, something unheard of in Venezuela since Chavez came to office. And yet Muchacho is challenging him in a totally useless primary as I can assure you that Grateron is going to win it by at the very least 10 points.

The thing is that PJ is still smarting that Leopoldo Lopez left them and took Chacao with him. Also, PJ is a "right" party in spite of its counter nature alliance with PPT and PODEMOS. Thus their birthright is Chacao, I suppose. And to add insult to injury AD has decided to support Muchacho even if for president it does not support Capriles.... Never mind that AD supported Grateron in 2008 with a mere 7% of its total... Fortunately ridicule does not kill politicians.

Thus Voluntad Popular rightly decided to put someone next door with Freddy Guevara (second from left). In Sucre (Petare, Eastern Caracas), the refusal of the Unidad to change primary date for mayor (and AD in particular within the Unidad) is forcing popular Ocariz to run for Miranda state house and leave his mayor seat which could have been considered safe but will no more be so. Now there is going to be a primary that Juan Carlos Caldera will surely win but media savvy and energetic Guevara will give him a run for his money. Another waste of resources if you ask me.

The third story in the picture would be Leopoldo but the story there is for the one that did not show up for the group picture. See, VP endorsed Blyde for reelection at Baruta and PJ is also very upset at it as they think Baruta is their fiefdom, Capriles having been its mayor for two terms. Certainly if Uzcategui had been allowed to run (he was "inhabilitado" as Lopez was) he would have won easily and Blyde of UNT would not even have challenged him seriously. But Uzcategui could not and Blyde benefited.

Unfortunately for Uzcategui bid, even if in part justified, and certainly more than the lousy move of Muchacho, Blyde has not been a bad mayor. Thus, instead fo recovering Baruta, PJ and AD divisive moves may well result in the consolidation of UNT and VP in Caracas at their expense. there is still a note to be made on the abscence of Blyde: he supports Perez and thus appearing in the picture with Leopoldo could be confusing as suggesting that he supported him. They did what responsible politicians do: "juntos pero no revueltos", together but not mixed up. I find this pragmatism quite satisfying and a sure sign that the opposition unity in the end will prevail in spite of frequent pettiness.

Though not as clear I could also write a similar story for the other two guys in the picture, both having at least an outside chance at winning the primary respectively in Libertador and Hatillo. But you get the point. These petty divisions inside the opposition for seats that should not be challenged because there is really no point or justification for it, is distrating from the bigger picture. And even if we know for sure that no matter how divided they are for the priamry these guys will be elected anyway, we are allowed to wonder.

It is not that I am negating the primary system, I am all for it, but when some claim that primaries cannot be separated in two because of the cost I wonder how dry their crocodile tears are thinking at the expenses for some primaries that are truly useless.

---------------------------
NEW FEATURE

To simplify my wordy posts on elections I will try as much as possible to give a summary at the end of my electoral updates for the primary. One liners, arrow up, down or even. Candidates in alphabetical order. Opinionated.