tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post1320136700010105419..comments2024-03-26T00:37:34.943+01:00Comments on Venezuela News And Views: Venezuela's electoral numbers 2012: 4- September forecastDanielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-34937194488467970102012-09-25T21:29:01.704+02:002012-09-25T21:29:01.704+02:00Ok here are some thoughts. Sure the opposition is ...Ok here are some thoughts. Sure the opposition is in better shape to win this time. However, you are taking quite a few things for granted and all of them seem to be working for Capriles.<br /><br />1. Abstention is never a given. It can be high, it can be low. Since there is no data on abstention, noone can be sure about it. And even if there was any data, abstention is tricky to measure. <br /><br />2. Regarding abstention again. True, it will mostly hurt Chavez. After all, he is the one with the most voters to lose due to indifference. Also, it is a given that usually it is the government that gets its supporters disenchanted, not the opposition. However, don't you think that there is a possibility that those quite high abstention figures you are predicting can prove to be highly damaging for Capriles as well? Isn't there a possibility that this extra 10% you are predicting are actually votes that Capriles needs to get ahead?<br /><br />3. Polling in Venezuela tends to be partisan and disastrous and for those reasons few people actually trust polls. As a result, the only thing that can dissapoint or fire up the base of a political party is the general climate. This climate has been neither in favor of Capriles nor against him. This means that sure, his base will come out alright but it also means that Chavez supporters will come out as well. <br /><br />4. Anyway, if you are so sure about your analysis, bet on Intrade.com. They have Chavez as a 90% favorite, so you got a chance to make money.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-63017217183595226762012-09-23T16:50:52.061+02:002012-09-23T16:50:52.061+02:00I hope you are right, Daniel, and that sense can r...I hope you are right, Daniel, and that sense can re-enter Venezuela with Capriles. Also hoping that Capriles and supporters can unite all the people to build a better country for all, learning from all past mistakes. Pollyana maybe, but she was happy!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-78949946283905542642012-09-11T04:27:09.398+02:002012-09-11T04:27:09.398+02:00Pitch forks, Syd, pitch forks......Pitch forks, Syd, pitch forks......Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-11437980952533748302012-09-11T04:08:52.334+02:002012-09-11T04:08:52.334+02:00Whoa! What courage! An anonymous Anonymous will no...Whoa! What courage! An anonymous Anonymous will not bother giving us his reasoning but will come back as Anonymous on October 8 to tell me why i was wrong. <br /><br />Oh! But from blog reading in 2006 he infers that 6 years went by without any effect... Never mind that this blog in 2006 said that Rosales was going to lose. Never mind he predicted in a BBC piece what would happen in a second chavez term. Some reading you did.<br /><br />Brother! Another searing example of chavista intellectualism. I am cowering!<br /><br />Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-72454957248912105162012-09-10T23:35:34.110+02:002012-09-10T23:35:34.110+02:00Presidential elections in Venezuela are by far the...Presidential elections in Venezuela are by far the easiest elections to predict. Such elections during the past 13 years have been remarkably consistent.<br /><br />I remember doing the rounds of opposition blogs back in 2006, and this all feels remarkably similar. Highly optimistic but with nothing substantial backing it up. Ignoring the majority of polls which tell us the spread hasn't changed. Honestly believing that isolated accidents have any bearing at all on voters after 13 long years.<br /><br />I'll be back on the 8th of next month to tell you in more detail why you messed up so badly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-40619057082359638172012-09-10T16:41:13.798+02:002012-09-10T16:41:13.798+02:00And where are your correct predictions? I have at...And where are your correct predictions? I have at least a track record of correct predictions in 2008 and 2010. Thus, even if I were to fail miserably with this one I still would not be totally discredited.<br /><br />As for evasiveness from someone signing anonymous and evading his own bitterness...Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-88984997331369698602012-09-10T07:28:54.599+02:002012-09-10T07:28:54.599+02:00Being evasive, Daniel? I mean everyone can decide ...Being evasive, Daniel? I mean everyone can decide independently whether or not you're full of sh*t, but surely getting this prediction massively wrong would be a grave indictment.<br /><br />Simply put, to entirely misread a national scenario means you are misreading the vital components of the scenario. So to try and cover your ass by saying that being wrong doesn't matter is a bit disingenuous.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-36276408766697994352012-09-10T05:36:26.417+02:002012-09-10T05:36:26.417+02:00Daniel, I'm banking on your prediction, based ...Daniel, I'm banking on your prediction, based on cautious conservatism. Though, of course, I'm hoping for a higher vote differential for Capriles.<br /><br />Meanwhile... may I suggest that you avoid impalement on forks by eating from now on with blunt-ended wooden chopsticks?sydnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-3698695148090669242012-09-10T00:35:25.614+02:002012-09-10T00:35:25.614+02:00I firmly believe we'll have the best chance if...I firmly believe we'll have the best chance if we get a huge, cordonazo de San Francisco style, rainstorm. Rain always triggers abstention: if you have to take care of your almost falling house the least you'll care is on voting. It might sound mean, but if we get that much rain i'll call the election for capriles for sure.. SaludosNelsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-64677398811751193962012-09-09T21:30:35.616+02:002012-09-09T21:30:35.616+02:00Well, that is another story altogether. In future...Well, that is another story altogether. In future posts.<br /><br />But it is important to establish a benchmark of sorts, the magnitude of the cheating Chavez needs to do. It is all about records, the only way to obtain a punishment some day.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-59163340280681608422012-09-09T20:53:51.293+02:002012-09-09T20:53:51.293+02:00Daniel, I think your analysis is spot-on, but Capr...Daniel, I think your analysis is spot-on, but Capriles could win by 2,000,000 votes (you can invent any number) and Chavez would not cede power.galloglassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-90045501657812495302012-09-09T20:22:38.764+02:002012-09-09T20:22:38.764+02:00My working hypothesis is a lower turnout than in 2...My working hypothesis is a lower turnout than in 2006. That is, more votes, 1 million more but less participation overall. As such what is the point for me to consider higher participation, or at least one equal to 2006? <br /><br />My political starting point is that more disgruntled chavistas will punish chavez by staying home than going to vote for Capriles outright. That is my model and I understand the other models based on trends alone and polls. But I do not share their premises because they assume that the chavista that voted for Chavez 14 years can for Capriles as if nothing, as it could happen in a normal democracy. We are in a dictatorship and that fact affects a large chunk of the population in emotional ways hard to measure through polls.<br /><br />Anyway, in less than a month we'll see who's right.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-53834921582619689232012-09-09T19:50:53.983+02:002012-09-09T19:50:53.983+02:00You are still betting in turnout around 65%, that ...You are still betting in turnout around 65%, that is not easy to digest. You are talking about an presidential election where the turnout would be the same as 2007. That's hard to believe..! In 2006 turnout was around 75% and I believe this will be the number for this election, I think at least 14 millions will vote. Capriles would need 7 millions in that scenery, have you done the excercise taking into account a turnout between 70% and 75% which is likely to happen (I think in this point all pollster agree, so, it's not only "my opinion").<br /><br />SOrry about my englishAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-21149566497842000642012-09-09T18:02:52.956+02:002012-09-09T18:02:52.956+02:00The question here is - When Capriles wins handily ...The question here is - When Capriles wins handily are you going to come back and admit that the Venezuelan people no longer have the patience or desire for another 6 years of Cuban Chavismo?<br /><br />I will bet that "Anonymous" and all his buddies will be nowhere in sight when O8 arrives.<br /><br />I'm also not so conservative as Daniel. I firmly believe that the vote count will be higher for Capriles.<br />As an example a friend from the local pueblo went to the mayor's office (Chavista) on Friday for some documents & was immediately confronted by red shirted members of the PSUV asking her if she was registered in various programs & missions. The indicated that the mayor would be handing out bonuses to people in need & that they would pick her up on voting day to take her to the polling station. They asked her numerous tiomes if she would be voting for Chavez. She, of course, agreed that she would.<br /><br />She will be voting for Capriles as will all her family & relatives.<br /><br />The Chavista vote this time around is a cloud of smoke. The people will be voting for change.Island Canucknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-56182226795667164962012-09-09T17:28:17.171+02:002012-09-09T17:28:17.171+02:00Chiguire
Eva has long ago understood this revolut...Chiguire<br /><br />Eva has long ago understood this revolution very well. She dropped by the cashiers office and now she even has her TV stunt, apartment, wardrobe, etc, etc... And probably keeps dropping at the revolutionary cashier which leaves her with too little time to drop bomb bloggers. She is a revolutionary success alright.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-58375620548115818702012-09-09T17:25:39.656+02:002012-09-09T17:25:39.656+02:00I never cease to be impressed by the bitterness of...I never cease to be impressed by the bitterness of such comments, where the authors are never able to even assume a fake identity, and certainly not to bring an idea, a comment, even a link to another site debunking my texts. Don't you ever get tired of comment bombing? Why did you not leave a comment in, say, this post:<br /><br />http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2012/08/this-is-post-3500-and-hopefully-counting.htmlDanielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-3449885194800920382012-09-09T16:30:15.115+02:002012-09-09T16:30:15.115+02:00Eva, is that you?Eva, is that you?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15767138288076710115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-41574264445499659862012-09-09T12:25:53.842+02:002012-09-09T12:25:53.842+02:00It actually does matter if you make an ass of your...It actually does matter if you make an ass of yourself here, because the factors leading you to this final prediction are the same factors which broadly determine your reliability as a political commentator.<br /><br />In other words, if Chavez wins with his customary >60%, it will mean that you have catastrophically misread the political landscape in Venezuela. It will mean you have a grossly distorted perception of reality on a wide range of significant issues relating to the popularity of the president.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com