tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post3534702813419587265..comments2024-03-26T00:37:34.943+01:00Comments on Venezuela News And Views: VN&V final predictions for October 7Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-70433794896035510342012-10-04T22:43:49.293+02:002012-10-04T22:43:49.293+02:00this phrase is mint! pure gold!this phrase is mint! pure gold!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-405429906945578422012-10-03T18:10:11.213+02:002012-10-03T18:10:11.213+02:00"I will have you know that this blog is the o..."I will have you know that this blog is the only place where you will find extensive post election analysis and that is what one needs to do if one wants to be able to understand truly trend lines, something that I do not think pollsters do that well. Those analysis are the real secret of my method, the only way not only to know your electoral map, but also to feel it, literally."<br /><br />truer words never spokenfirepighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15158275219887987252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-78447565007641427052012-10-03T17:43:30.737+02:002012-10-03T17:43:30.737+02:00Thanks a lot. Your answer is complete and satisfie...Thanks a lot. Your answer is complete and satisfies my curiosity. CheersPedrohttp://twitter.com/plinaresherreranoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-84460426964247585812012-10-03T07:04:23.748+02:002012-10-03T07:04:23.748+02:00By the way, thanks for the question. No one ever ...By the way, thanks for the question. No one ever asked and I did not want to make a long boring post about it. This way, even if quickly written, it is on record.<br /><br />If you want to understand better my work read my posts on caucaguita.......Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-53951565067216442912012-10-03T06:57:22.699+02:002012-10-03T06:57:22.699+02:00There is no trust needed. Nor I am asking for it a...There is no trust needed. Nor I am asking for it as I am an amateur and if pollsters fall on their face regularly, I cannot be far behind.<br /><br />I start with trends study, but I am not a slave of them. That is, I use my political, geographical, ethnographic knowledge of Venezuela's areas (that is why I do not classify my states in alphabetical order or from the larger to the smaller). I try to use my political and historical knowledge to figure out at which time the asymptotic line will stop the growth of the trend line.<br /><br />Then it becomes a guts and guess work based on local news, national trends and only marginally on polls which I find very unreliable in Venezuela. I use only C21, Data, Varianzas and Keller, and for trends only.<br /><br />Only pollsters payed for their work can afford a "scientific" method, I cannot as I work alone.<br /><br />So yes, it is a unique method that takes quite a lot of work anyway. If I keep doing it it is because I have been getting better and better at it! In 2006 I was still too instinctive and not enough self critical. If I predicted Rosales defeat I blundered in putting it at 3%..... In 2007 I thought the referendum would not pass, though admittedly it was largely due on faith.<br /><br />By 2008 I was starting to have enough data to correct my previous mistakes and I got the regional elections at an acceptable level, messing Cojedes but insisting on Caracas with Ledezma that nobody believed me with.<br /><br />In 2009 I did not really predict much because I could not deal with the stupid referendum, but in 2010 I was one of the very few people who predicted that we would be getting between 65 and 70 seats!!!!!! No pollster got as good as I did.<br /><br />The next one was more difficult as it was a primary. Yet, all along I wrote that participation was going to be above 2 million and maybe up to 3. Which almost nobody got, though Datanalisis got at least the % number for Capriles. Then again that was no big feat as all thought Capriles was going to win.<br /><br />But this time around it will be my last prediction as my system has reached its course. If Capriles wins the political presumptions I am based on (mostly a opposition union front) will cease soon when chavismo loses almost all governors in December. Divisions will start by the time we roll to municipal elections in April and then my system will crash.<br /><br />I have been very lucky on latching in a consistent and coherent method because the country is very polarized, so trend lines have a meaning, and I make a big effort to get a regional pulse. But once the opposition divides in front of a much weakened chavismo I will not be able to keep the pulse and the trend lines will be over.<br /><br />And if Chavez wins then I will have better things to do planning my escape from the country than looking at electoral numbers.<br /><br />And yes, since August I change my state numbers at will on my instinct and local knowledge. That is why I publish percentage than the actual numbers I work with though you certainly can deduct them if you do the math. But my first prediction of August was fully based on my long term method and my analysis of the primary results published last April. I will have you know that this blog is the only place where you will find extensive post election analysis and that is what one needs to do if one wants to be able to understand truly trend lines, something that I do not think pollsters do that well. Those analysis are the real secret of my method, the only way not only to know your electoral map, but also to feel it, literally.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-24387126738008519092012-10-03T06:00:56.828+02:002012-10-03T06:00:56.828+02:00I have been looking at your predictions from time ...I have been looking at your predictions from time to time and find them interesting but I also have problems to trust them. The thing is that I don't understand yet what is the methodology you use to change the percentage of advantage from Chávez to Capriles every time yo do so. Is it your perception? Is it a linear combination of polls? Would you label your method as scientific or speculative?Pedrohttp://twitter.com/plinaresherreranoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-89770745315267242092012-10-03T00:34:30.774+02:002012-10-03T00:34:30.774+02:00Margareth
My comment was about no one in every in...Margareth<br /><br />My comment was about no one in every in particular. I am just tired of hearing so many of such comments.<br /><br />This being said. Hackers may indeed come in and do all sorts of things. But there is a box with the paper ballots and that tally must match the electronic one. That is, for a hacker to tamper he needs to print ballots from a remote position and have that match. It is easier to just stuff the box of the opposition has no witness.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-20927719978832355042012-10-02T22:33:31.052+02:002012-10-02T22:33:31.052+02:00I found this link about e-voting in the Netherland...I found this link about e-voting in the Netherlands<br /><br />http://www.prodemos.nl/content/download/5147/25693/file/Electronic%20Voting%20in%20the%20Netherlands.pdfmargarethnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-82684801195261724262012-10-02T22:12:20.375+02:002012-10-02T22:12:20.375+02:00No Daniel. Some computer nerds in the Netherlands ...No Daniel. Some computer nerds in the Netherlands showed that they could enter into the system, from then on its voting by red pencil. There are several countries who don't use voting machines. margarethnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-11917989363754035582012-10-02T22:01:31.525+02:002012-10-02T22:01:31.525+02:00There is no doubt in my mind that Capriles landsli...There is no doubt in my mind that Capriles landslide will prevent any fraud/coup. Chaverment, at this point, still half believes its own lies. It is too hard for these arrogant people to comprehend what is going on. They have been in denial about the seismic shift that many of us already felt since the primaries, so they will need a while to overcome the shock. If we are lucky, that will be midnight.<br /><br />Then, a new era begins. And the real challenge.<br /><br />MariaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-43693778244199012142012-10-02T21:44:29.727+02:002012-10-02T21:44:29.727+02:00Sometimes I feel that these rumors that so wildly ...Sometimes I feel that these rumors that so wildly circulate is in fact a subconscious expression of people that want the election to fail....Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-50147055113315549562012-10-02T19:41:18.862+02:002012-10-02T19:41:18.862+02:00to see results Vicente Diaz must be there, and the...to see results Vicente Diaz must be there, and the oppo representatives in tot. room as well. Results are encripted and every CNE rep. has a password, when all passwords are in place the servers tell the results. So theres no way they can put fake results in there.... All the system has been extensively audited....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-85352814563462247222012-10-02T18:45:29.339+02:002012-10-02T18:45:29.339+02:00Different Anonymous
Don't you worry that PSUV...Different Anonymous<br /><br />Don't you worry that PSUV will and the electoral commission will just fudge the #s totally? Afterall there is a computer system involved and the Cubans have a vested interest here in keeping Hugo in power. So they fudge the election, Chavez wins 52/47 or something like this. Capriles calls foul, they go to count ballots and there is some chaos, lost ballots and whatnot, but that is 5 to 9 months later, meanwhile is Hugo even alive? What then? PSUV Junta and 'caretaker' government... Tell me why they just can't fool the computers and have CNE stamp it as official. Protests will just die away a few months later??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-33257852676765691452012-10-02T16:33:23.631+02:002012-10-02T16:33:23.631+02:00Here's a little story that has no moral other ...Here's a little story that has no moral other than it made me feel good.<br /><br />I was in a long line to pay a government bill (no names to protect the innocent) & after 45 minutes I finally got to the cashier. There was a little discussion about the fact that the payment website that they use won't accept my information so I could pay on-line.<br /><br />The cashier advised me that the website hasn't operated in 3 months due to a problem of communication between the government entity & the payment portal. In frustration I said "Hay un camino". He smiled, didn't say anything but reached through the payment opening & squeezed my hand.<br /><br />The change will come Sunday night or early Monday morning. +1 million votes for HCR!!!Island Canucknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-46857442687903312772012-10-02T16:30:51.339+02:002012-10-02T16:30:51.339+02:00This is like waiting for Christmas, but where Chri...This is like waiting for Christmas, but where Christmas might actually turn out to be the first day of 6 more years of Lent...pjkhttp://www.peterkrupa.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-25811275442957177312012-10-02T15:35:12.481+02:002012-10-02T15:35:12.481+02:00Daniel: vote early. go to Caracas with your champa...Daniel: vote early. go to Caracas with your champagne. If I can travel 5 hours to vote and return, you can too. sydnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-1684122807879603992012-10-02T15:25:28.546+02:002012-10-02T15:25:28.546+02:00This is the most exciting election ever.... I live...This is the most exciting election ever.... I live in the states" Michigan"... I've been following election since the beginning... this is an election with True meaning..... I've been following this blog.. the frustration.. the passion....... I've been to Venezuela a few times.. I've been profiled iat the airport..had my cell phone stolen by a pirate cabbie..twice!!..:).. but I've also met a lot of great people.... I hope this election turns out the way you want it... keep up the great blog I'll keep following it...Best!!michael*248https://www.blogger.com/profile/17045248451468333210noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-38820508404493907262012-10-02T15:18:43.787+02:002012-10-02T15:18:43.787+02:00I feel strongly that many Chavistas will turn and ...I feel strongly that many Chavistas will turn and vote for Capriles. These are the ones that are tired of groveling to Chavez for what little benefits the government provides. Despite Chavez claims, he is not the owner of the country and the benefits are not gifted by Chavez.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-46686529353278795932012-10-02T14:53:51.663+02:002012-10-02T14:53:51.663+02:00I hope Capriles will win with all my heart, but I ...I hope Capriles will win with all my heart, but I am afraid for fraud in the election. Sorry I have this gut feeling, and I hope so much Daniel is right! margarethnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-64737514603408385452012-10-02T14:34:23.768+02:002012-10-02T14:34:23.768+02:00Daniel, aren't you gonna have the table availa...Daniel, aren't you gonna have the table available for us to play with? Maybe a Google Docs read-only document would be nice.Ricardohttp://twitter.com/veneconoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-49381617719752659702012-10-02T12:59:19.765+02:002012-10-02T12:59:19.765+02:00"Vargas really does not count for much"
..."Vargas really does not count for much"<br /><br />Although maybe true, it still hurt a little bit :(<br /><br />Hope you are right in your predictions, fingers crossed!Anelimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-33779981419565511672012-10-02T05:23:32.312+02:002012-10-02T05:23:32.312+02:00I think Bolivar is in. After today visit by Capril...I think Bolivar is in. After today visit by Capriles it is in blue :)<br /><br />Oriente is indeed the key, not only to victory but the margin. If HCR carries Bolivar by 5, Monagas by 1 and loses Sucre by 1 it means a national victory by a solid 5.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-28851201171720216502012-10-02T05:00:40.593+02:002012-10-02T05:00:40.593+02:00I am reviewing everything all the time but only up...I am reviewing everything all the time but only update if needed really. Cojedes is so wretched, so dependent that Chavez did not need to go there. If he went it is because he is afraid to go elsewhere or because he thinks he may lose Cojedes. If he loses Cojedes he loses the election by 1.5 million.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-28448849225310648772012-10-02T04:19:16.711+02:002012-10-02T04:19:16.711+02:00Looks like you did a heck of a job, Daniel. I dare...Looks like you did a heck of a job, Daniel. I dare to give Monagas and Aragua to HCR by a narrow margin IMHO. The key to a possible HCR victory passes by reducing the gap in those Chavista strongholds like Los Llanos and specially winning Oriente and Bolivar.geha714https://www.blogger.com/profile/12680077918707375990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-63859537352112528032012-10-02T04:18:07.215+02:002012-10-02T04:18:07.215+02:00Will you be revising your numbers for Cojedes?
Tod...Will you be revising your numbers for Cojedes?<br />Today's chavista rally was, according to several, pitiful. Chávez, too, looked dreadful - unas ojeras asombrosas. <br />http://www.noticierodigital.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=907353sydnoreply@blogger.com