tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post3655672928420921146..comments2024-03-26T00:37:34.943+01:00Comments on Venezuela News And Views: Sunday's results, an exercise in immaterialityDanielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-8489039346036774982013-04-13T21:54:25.501+02:002013-04-13T21:54:25.501+02:00More math here :p
I was looking at previous elect...More math here :p<br /><br />I was looking at previous election results, trying to see if there was a "baseline" number for each camp, and trends among the years, and stuff... Ill explain that later, so first, here are the numbers. Please note that those are approx numbers:<br /><br />year---2008---2009---2010---2012pre---2012reg<br />gob----5,9-----6,3----5,5----8,2-------5,6<br />opo----4,4-----5,2----5,7----6,8-------4,4<br />abs----4,8-----4,9----5,6----3,8-------8,9<br />total--15,1----16,4--16,8----18,8------18,8<br /><br />From the above table, excluding the elections in which chavez was on the ballot (2009 and 2012pre), the baseline would be around 6 million votes, actually, if you compare 2010 vs 2012 regionals, let's say that the simpathy vote was included, it was basically 2010 all over again. Those elections were not crucial to chavismo, because El Supremo, and more importantly, his way to run things (which is what el pueblo is actually voting) were not at stake. From all these, we can conclude that the hard-core chavista vote is actually LESS than 5.5 million votes.<br /><br />On 2009 chavez was directly at stake, because if he lost the referendum, he wouldnt have been able to get reelected on 2012, so El Pueblo had to vote in order to save the Beloved Leader, there was motivation from them to do so. Let's say that for 2012, the best scenario for chavez, assuming a constant total number of voters, would be 6,3 million. What's interesting is that by 2012, and compared to the previous election in 2010, the REP (total number of voters) grew by 2 million, the oppo vote grew by one million, and the chavista vote grew 2 million considering the 6,3 million number. This points several issues:<br />a) part of the extra oppo 1M came from previous abstention: if you never voted for chavez, why would you suddenly go vote for him? however, if you never voted oppo because "it didnt convince you", this was the oportunity to do just that<br />b) part of the extra oppo 1M came from the newly registered voters.<br />c) the most important of all: from the extra 2M of the govt, part came from the new voters, and the other part were forced voters. As I said in a), if you never voted chavez, why would you suddenly?<br /><br />The following table lists how the new voters split between gov and oppo<br /><br />%new-gob---100----80----75----60----50<br />new-gob-----2----1,6---1,5----1,2---1<br />new-oppo---0-----0,4---0,5----0,8---1<br /><br />To analyze the reach of the operacion remolque for forced voting, we must consider the previous table:<br />- If the oppo didnt get a single new vote from previous abstention, and grew by 1M, then, the operacion remolque had a reach of 1M<br />- Since registration was hindered and completely partial to the govt, the most logic assumption is that most of the new voters were pro govt. Considering the range between 80-60% pro govt new voters, operacion remolque could have moved about 0,6 million voters.<br />- The total number of chavista voters, without forcing, ranges from 7.2-7.6 million.<br />- The total number of hardcore chavista voters is between 6.2-6.6 million, because thats the number of chavistas that keep voting on whatever election comes up, the rest voting only if chavez is in the ballot.<br /><br />In conclusion: the possible best for maduro is:<br />base:------6.2--6.6<br />remolque:--0.6---1<br />total:-----6.8---7.6<br /><br />If we consider how maduro has fallen from grace within the chavista universe, since the demise of chavez, we can safely say that this fall is about (at least) 5% of the chavista electorate, so the most probable number of votes for maduro is 6.5 -- 7.2.<br /><br />Now, share your thoughts on this, please :)kernel_panicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-71713267692266040082013-04-13T19:57:28.228+02:002013-04-13T19:57:28.228+02:00Have you read this wonderful piece of sh... in tod...Have you read this wonderful piece of sh... in today's Guardian? Comments are even more hilarious! It´s so easy to love socialism from the confort of British isles. Come on! http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/12/my-presidency-chavez-revolution-continue#start-of-commentsMilonganoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-86689903401296645172013-04-13T19:26:12.942+02:002013-04-13T19:26:12.942+02:00I found this article interesting: Do the math! Lik...I found this article interesting: Do the math! Like Nate Silver-style. <br />http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2013/04/13/matematicas-electorales-por-carmenbeat/<br />Translating: she sees two scenarios, and both shed a very close result to either candidate, that will but to the test the mood (talante) of the Venezuelan society and its governability. <br />Let`s hope and pray for the second scenario... <br />Dr. Faustus - you're my hero!<br />Milonganoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-34782964561527276732013-04-13T19:05:59.787+02:002013-04-13T19:05:59.787+02:00As I've said many times, to me it's quite ...As I've said many times, to me it's quite simple:<br /><br />-Pathetic lack of education, everywhere, including the 'government"<br />- Corruption, thieves, thugs, stealing money.<br />- The Elite left the country a long time ago, except for a few, because we were afraif being killed for a pair of shoes.So what's left ain't much to write home about. <br /><br />- The Chavista Maduro Gang will cheat. Again. Sadly, this brave Capriles guy stands no chance.Sledgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00669696149094846115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-43991588969399477182013-04-13T18:22:50.424+02:002013-04-13T18:22:50.424+02:00Faustus
I wish you had not replied to the creep a...Faustus<br /><br />I wish you had not replied to the creep above. Odds that he is the same solitary chavista that haunts all blogs comment bombing and running away never addressing any issue are 99%. He also suffers of massive personality disorder as his absolute lack of integrity bars him from sticking to a single handle and take responsibility for his words.<br /><br />Since it has been years that no new chavistas have attempted visits I have no qualms in erasing his messages since he is more of a deranged mind than any semi serious discussion seeking to characters. Other chavistas with brighter lights have been able to learn that here the cannot ever win an argument. Thus they prefer not to visit here and insult me elsewhere where they ego gets less bruises.<br /><br />But I have to admit that the wording of your reply is as good a choice of words that this creep will ever be able to understand. Assuming of course he gets back to read which I doubt, all idiot fanatics always eschewing confrontation where the other side can reply. So I am letting both stand, but please, next time, give me a chance to erase it first. His style is so repetitive that no matter what handle he takes we can always recognize him.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-3818061036710227712013-04-13T17:00:55.016+02:002013-04-13T17:00:55.016+02:00To the anonymous poster above
In the coming month...To the anonymous poster above<br /><br />In the coming months and years as Venezuela collapses into chaos and bloodshed I could only wish that your personal life is filled with the same pain and suffering. Your dogmatic insanity helped create and support this nightmare in Venezuela. One can only wish that you experience its horrific consequences as well.Dr. Faustusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-23106585640052165282013-04-13T15:17:49.157+02:002013-04-13T15:17:49.157+02:00It's a pleasure to see that the relatively san...It's a pleasure to see that the relatively sane elements of the Venezuelan right are severely depressed and that delusional belief in a likely bourgeois election victory is confined to those most clearly out of touch with reality in all respects. <br /><br />It's also interesting that there is not yet any trace of a viable political alternative to Venezuelan socialism to be found anywhere on the right, which still confines itself to whining, snivelling, fatuously reciting its dogmas and smugly sneering at the popular masses. That ideological sterility promises many more years of political irrelevance to come for the Venezuelan bourgeoisie and its hangers on.<br /><br />Enjoy your election folks! Isn't democracy grand?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-79360743924902314072013-04-13T08:03:16.918+02:002013-04-13T08:03:16.918+02:00Sad, but my feelings exactly. Whoever wins it will...Sad, but my feelings exactly. Whoever wins it will not be pretty. That is the legacy of Chavez.Edgar Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12876467122119993446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-26278409788484663452013-04-13T06:06:21.594+02:002013-04-13T06:06:21.594+02:00Good night and good luck! Good night and good luck! Milonganoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-28416030011911190682013-04-13T04:17:11.784+02:002013-04-13T04:17:11.784+02:00"When a country has fallen so low, when socia..."When a country has fallen so low, when social-hatred-pass-the-buck is now the accepted state policy, what can we really expect? Can Capriles change anything?" Daniel, this was very well said. It is amazing to me just how low this entire planet has fallen with this kind of attitude. My fear is that the only real change that can take place is when everything comes crashing down and people finally wake up and realize that the state cannot save them. Keep fighting the good fight, Daniel. Cheese Without Whinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03391564347515098315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-40244070914684593542013-04-13T03:29:40.494+02:002013-04-13T03:29:40.494+02:00Were Henrique Capriles to lose on Sunday, an unlik...Were Henrique Capriles to lose on Sunday, an unlikely event I know (sorry, I'm still allowed to be an optimist), it will be because Venezuela has not yet hit rock bottom. The economic insanity that is/was Chavismo has not run its course. They've built a massive house of cards with storm winds still a few months away. Inflation hasn't hit 50%, ... yet. The Mercal store shelves still have some small quantity items for sale. The city morgues, though packed, haven't resorted to 13th century black plague pits,....yet. The economy is on autopilot, with the fuel gauge needle already pointing to the red. It is only when ones' back is to the wall do human beings see the 'real' world around them, and then suddenly become rational. The Venezuelan population might not be there yet. Hitting rock bottom, however, implies violence. People fighting one another for their very existence. It's a stage of human survival. It is the Venezuelan Zeitgeist hanging over this latest election. Rock bottom. One only hopes that it will never come to that.Dr. Faustusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-52644058777913812202013-04-13T02:44:37.337+02:002013-04-13T02:44:37.337+02:00The question I have is whether Capriles will have ...The question I have is whether Capriles will have to make deals with top generals or even high level Chavista in the current government?<br /><br />This might be the only viable option. Agree in return for not prosecuting, they will leave office, remain quiet, and be able to keep their pension and most assets.<br /><br />It is a moot question until Capriles wins. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-85455310374059302992013-04-13T02:40:25.758+02:002013-04-13T02:40:25.758+02:00Priceless: " Monday 15 is when we start payin...Priceless: " Monday 15 is when we start paying for all the mess Chavez left us, whoever wins"Humbertonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-55735784200983158342013-04-13T02:11:24.757+02:002013-04-13T02:11:24.757+02:00Daniel, that was a damn good post. Saludos to you ...Daniel, that was a damn good post. Saludos to you all from another puertorriqueño that loves Venezuela, dearly. Carlos A Bas Huertashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01892006476601350604noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-60388633087535731142013-04-13T00:08:59.853+02:002013-04-13T00:08:59.853+02:00I listened to Capriles when he talked about housin...I listened to Capriles when he talked about housing during one of his public pep talks to the crowd. He specifically mentioned that those who would get housing would also walk away with a property title, no hanky panky with the State still being the owner, I remember that clearly. However, whether or not his message will trickle down to the interested parties is another matter.Charlynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-56651630589582482062013-04-12T23:57:27.789+02:002013-04-12T23:57:27.789+02:00"people like Arreaza and Jaua and Rodriguez a..."people like Arreaza and Jaua and Rodriguez and Ramirez will start planning a Caracazo 2". Maybe, if they have not run before like several of them did in April 2002. If not, this will signal the start of a civil war.If so just like a surgeon has to be radical with a cancer, Capriles would have to be as well. He has a perfect excuse, these guys sold out to a foreign power. Accused of high treason they likely would start plotting a Caracazo from Switzerland.Charlynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-37336685085317174162013-04-12T23:29:26.002+02:002013-04-12T23:29:26.002+02:00With Capriles, it will be tough but he seems to ha...With Capriles, it will be tough but he seems to have accepted the challenge head on. If the majority of Venezuela votes to support him sunday, that majority is also voting to support the changes that are needed and the ones Capriles will attempt to make. That is a step in the right direction.<br /><br />With maduro, it is clear that his path will only allow chavez to continue to drag down venezuela from the grave. Not once has he shown even a hint of a thought of his own that wasn't moronic. This ignorance will result in not one but two steps backwards for Venezuela, only speeding up the death spiral. I understand the defiance of the corrupt minority in control that will do anything to prevent losing control, but I can't understand the masses who support chavez and now maduro who have nothing to lose, and still vote to continue rather than try a different path. I have tried to understand this cult mentality, but I can't.<br /><br />Capriles did touch on the housing during the Globovision interview when he was asked the question, and his response was that if you were on a list for a house and met the criteria for a house, that you would get a house when built. He only stated that this list and others would be made transparent, which is the way that it should be. He didn't say anything about ownership, which may help to change a lot of peoples minds and earn votes if offered title versus lease. This housing list of over 3 million applicants was instrumental in winning votes for chavez, and could have been exploited more by Capriles. I hope they get the message that they will not lose a chance for a house if they vote for Capriles.<br /><br />concerned<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-3571749872060409982013-04-12T22:48:17.874+02:002013-04-12T22:48:17.874+02:00Se correr o bicho pega, se ficar o bicho come. Tha...Se correr o bicho pega, se ficar o bicho come. That's a Brazilian saying meaning damned if one does and damned if one doesn't, but the image of a fierce animal catching you if you run or eating you if you stay quiet is more clear to define your point. Which was a shower of very cold water pouring over us. I'm going to have a drink, or two. Milonganoreply@blogger.com