tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post6136140812105001796..comments2024-03-18T19:50:24.376+01:00Comments on Venezuela News And Views: Now what? December troublesDanielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-35382505666657685192012-10-26T04:20:40.949+02:002012-10-26T04:20:40.949+02:00Hi, I'm not predicting anything at all, in rea...Hi, I'm not predicting anything at all, in real life you just can't extrapolate past results to the future, even if the difference is 3 months or 2 years, you can only go with guts *and in a normal country with surveys* and the data just helps me a little bit. My prediction is this <br /><br />Safe Oppo: Zulia, Lara, Nueva Esparta and Tachira<br />Oppo leaning: Miranda, Merida<br />Toss ups: Carabobo, Bolivar, Anzoategui<br />Gov leaning: Sucre<br /><br />I'd like to say Mardo has a chance in Aragua, but the truth is I don't see him winning at all, I hope I'm wrongNelson Fernandezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05841482297425956415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-7995103121329291722012-10-24T14:48:19.888+02:002012-10-24T14:48:19.888+02:00What are you telling us? A landslide for the oppos...What are you telling us? A landslide for the opposition just two months after a major chavez feat?<br /><br />What you are saying is true, but there is a factor you do not consider. All the elections you mention are spaced among themselves by a year in which often some significant political event occurred. This time around there will be no major event until December and the electoral machinery and. Blackmailing tools will still be largely in place. In other words I am afraid that trends will not help us much this time around.<br /><br />Of course, for once I would love to be proven wrong......Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-67405763534103172632012-10-24T07:42:18.635+02:002012-10-24T07:42:18.635+02:00The only state where chavismo has ever performed b...The only state where chavismo has ever performed better in local elections than presidential elections is Merida. In every other state Chavismo generally loses 2-10 pts.<br /><br />I calculated a weighted average of the % of chavismo perfomance in "presidential like" (2006, 2009 and 2012) elections vs No chavez elections (2008 and 2010)<br /><br />State Chavismo % difference<br />Anzoategui -5.1055<br />Apure -7.9895<br />Aragua -5.1445<br />Barinas -6.771<br />Bolivar -9.717<br />Carabobo -5.672<br />Cojedes -8.0875<br />Delta Amacuro 1.287<br />Falcon -5.63<br />Guarico -0.89<br />Lara -10.0005<br />Merida 0.0165<br />Miranda -5.97<br />Monagas -6.4<br />Nueva E -6.4<br />Portuguesa -2.9<br />Sucre -8.45<br />Tachira -10.25<br />Trujillo -12<br />Vargas -3.85<br />Yaracuy -4.65<br />Zulia -4.75Nelson Fernandezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05841482297425956415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-63284254653159579332012-10-24T07:38:16.409+02:002012-10-24T07:38:16.409+02:00This comment has been removed by the author.Nelson Fernandezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05841482297425956415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-67419967626200507242012-10-24T05:56:33.989+02:002012-10-24T05:56:33.989+02:00Come on! I need to pretend I am objective.....Come on! I need to pretend I am objective.....Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-43316329844071252252012-10-24T05:23:12.222+02:002012-10-24T05:23:12.222+02:00"Not to mention that Reyes Reyes was a pitifu..."Not to mention that Reyes Reyes was a pitiful governor". An understatement?Charlyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01145328603062740131noreply@blogger.com