tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post8266161864042790192..comments2024-03-26T00:37:34.943+01:00Comments on Venezuela News And Views: Can we get a grand unified theory of political physics for Venezuela? Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-62284521917661448732014-06-15T20:06:33.106+02:002014-06-15T20:06:33.106+02:00Why would Maduro ever resign? As long as he is bei...Why would Maduro ever resign? As long as he is being fed he will stay. His job is merely to announce the occasional assisination plot and tell lies each an every day. He doesn't have to do anything or accept any accountability. If you oppose him he will throw you in jail. <br /><br />His job is pretty easy as he really does nothing except blow hot air. He is a tyrant and tyrants will stay around as long as they can do so safely. Until Venezuelans choose to make a uninimous stand Maduro and those close to him will be around for decades. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-81104029700948213602014-06-14T05:12:49.833+02:002014-06-14T05:12:49.833+02:00It was an autocratic kleptocracy under Chávez, wit...It was an autocratic kleptocracy under Chávez, with Chávez as the sole, omnipotent autocrat. <br /><br />But Maduro is so inept, he can't even get the autocracy part right. So it's an oligarchy. And like any oligarchy when the going get tough, the oligarchs fight with each other to figure out who gets the last scraps.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-8839471257745024222014-06-14T05:08:59.085+02:002014-06-14T05:08:59.085+02:00Oligarchic kleptocracy.
Oligarchic kleptocracy.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-61038032499086100922014-06-14T01:57:29.308+02:002014-06-14T01:57:29.308+02:00I disagree Dr.Faustus.This is not 2002! After Apri...I disagree Dr.Faustus.This is not 2002! After April 11ths coup they started a grand purge on institutions, specially the FANB and PDVSA,add to this the underestimated cuban intelligence.. They are practically immune to sabotage,coups,assassination attempts, et cetera.<br /><br />I still think the only way they're gonna fall is when a vast amount of people take the streets, or if someone goes a bit too far on the war between factions thats taking place inside chavismo,bringing enough instability for whatever to happen.<br /><br />Juan Crespohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13813847010096229013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-73901099147803817132014-06-13T21:01:33.380+02:002014-06-13T21:01:33.380+02:00In the case of some in the regime, resignation (wi...In the case of some in the regime, resignation (with exile) is still possible. In the case of Maduro, there exists the possibility that he may overthrown, jailed, executed, or whatever; but if he resigns, the Cubans will surely shoot him dead, dead, dead. He is caught between "the Devil and the deep blue sea."Roynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-52790403734032598082014-06-13T17:09:10.758+02:002014-06-13T17:09:10.758+02:00My Unified Theory remains the same:
More escasez,...My Unified Theory remains the same:<br /><br />More escasez, more inflation, more colas, less harina pan, until the Pueblo, finally really pissed off, unifies and overthrows the regime, in the streets.Sledgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10963609943524453700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-30300972541846036042014-06-13T17:00:45.736+02:002014-06-13T17:00:45.736+02:00Oooh, sorry Daniel. I meant to write Sans Culott...Oooh, sorry Daniel. I meant to write Sans Culottes! There is a difference...Dr. Faustusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-51203147745413305642014-06-13T16:57:57.447+02:002014-06-13T16:57:57.447+02:00Might I disagree here? They WILL resign given th...Might I disagree here? They WILL resign given the right circumstances. Do you recall the look on Hugo Chavez's face back when 100,000 people were standing outside of Miraflores Palace demanding his resignation? With perspiration pouring down his face he looked into the TV camera's and asked for "Calm! ...Calm!" from the general population. He was scared. The situation had gotten out of control. He was terrified for HIS OWN SAFETY! He thought that at any moment that crowd outside would be streaming into the Palace looking for vengeance. Fear was on his face that day. He resigned that very night. Today, 12 years later, with the economy in an absolute free-fall, a similar crises may face Maduro. This thing can turn in a flash, especially as things turn to desperation. Dwindling medical supplies, massive unemployment, incredible violence on the streets, shortages of basic food stuffs, the poor being forced into even deeper poverty, etc, etc. The Chavista's may quickly find themselves facing millions of modern-day 'San Culottes,' willing to sacrifice all for their 'Liberte`.' Don't think it can't happen, and soon. <br /><br /><br /><br />Dr. Faustusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-12683068950601927912014-06-12T21:00:36.437+02:002014-06-12T21:00:36.437+02:00You mean, 100,000 clones of the Castros after Sant...You mean, 100,000 clones of the Castros after Santos steals the election?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-64166711076966542472014-06-12T20:59:39.603+02:002014-06-12T20:59:39.603+02:00It is now a plutocratic autocratic kleptocracy! It is now a plutocratic autocratic kleptocracy! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-64888599304347302402014-06-12T20:58:14.486+02:002014-06-12T20:58:14.486+02:00The people most likely for the regimen to investig...The people most likely for the regimen to investigate probably are themselves, since they are all looking for an open back to put the knife in in opposed factions. They all want to be the top dogs with the most accepted views, and the richest jobs/best opportunity to embezzle and graft on the government.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-16692737239785220622014-06-12T20:24:55.395+02:002014-06-12T20:24:55.395+02:00Chavez didn't have to assist ceremony(he was d...Chavez didn't have to assist ceremony(he was dying),since it was only a formality.<br />So i guess presidential elections are a formality since the president is still Chavez.<br /><br />They will never resign!None of em!<br />They already have a hard time accepting X or Y was their fault.There is barely,if any,record since 1998 of Chavismo taking the blame for something (other than being too soft on fascists). It's not in the script,it's all propaganda. If you never say it's your fault,it will never be your fault.That is why people see them as really strong and powerful people,and that is why people find it really difficult to blame them for any mess we have.Because they've never been wrong,not even when they decided to take arms in 92.<br /> <br />Please understand, they can't look weak,EVER.Juan Crespohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13813847010096229013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-37040412525593748242014-06-12T19:32:10.797+02:002014-06-12T19:32:10.797+02:00If Maduro resigns now, Arreaza has 30 days to call...If Maduro resigns now, Arreaza has 30 days to call new elections (if they follow the Constitution, that is)<br /><br />More likely, they would apply their "Administrative Continutiy Doctrine" to try to justify Arreaza remaining in power for the rest of the term.<br /><br />Or, both Maduro and Arreaza resign, leaving Disodado in the Palace.<br /><br />Roberto NAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-10911941680170511502014-06-12T17:10:35.683+02:002014-06-12T17:10:35.683+02:00Excellent analysis Blake.
The fanaticism and blin...Excellent analysis Blake.<br /><br />The fanaticism and blindness that is behind political ideology is far more difficult to defeat.<br /><br />firepigettefirepighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15158275219887987252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-52625004715404435822014-06-12T17:02:46.096+02:002014-06-12T17:02:46.096+02:00If Maduro is viewed as the leader of a pro-Cuban f...If Maduro is viewed as the leader of a pro-Cuban faction within the regime, and I say regime as this is clearly a dictatorship, then Cabello is logically the leader of a self-serving Nouveau Riche faction within the regime. Both factions wish to retain power, and both factions are willing to use any means necessary. However, the pro-Cuban faction is only concerned with economics as they impact the flow of money to support Cuba and the regime. The pro-Cuban faction has a vision for the future and would prefer an indoctrinated but docile populace that is totally dependent on the state for food, housing, education and information - much like North Korea. The Nouveau Riche faction is materialistic to the point of myopia and is only concerned with economics as they impact the flow of money to enrich and empower the Nouveau Riche. The Nouveau Riche faction doesn't care about the populace and doesn't look far enough ahead to have a long term plan - deal with problems as they appear and blame everyone else, just retain power at all costs - much like Zimbabwe (although the Chinese may be whispering in someones ear in an effort to protect their investments). There are most likely other factions - facists, communists, etc, but they are all generally related to one of these two main groups.<br /><br />So would Maduro resign? No, not unless his Cuban handlers lose the power struggle to Cabello or determine there is an opportunity to consolidate power somehow.<br /><br />Is someone really planning a coup? Probably, but most likely not the people being accused. In fact, if I was in the pro-Cuban faction and felt I had enough support in the military, I would 1) arrest the opposition leaders, 2) stage a coup to implicate Cabello, 3) institute emergency military powers in response to the failed coup. If I was in the Nouveau Riche faction and felt I had enough support in the military, I would 1) arrest the opposition leaders, 2) stage an electoral coup with a dirty election, 3) institute emergency powers in response to the electoral "victory", forcing the Cubans out and cutting them off financially.<br /><br />Between the two factions, the more likely to collapse and the one that is easier to defeat is the Nouveau Riche - they are criminals, but they are not fanatics. In the end, criminals are simply greedy and self-serving, while fanatics are insanity.Blakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18358085342779306387noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-18772346898928046012014-06-12T15:35:52.348+02:002014-06-12T15:35:52.348+02:00"Maybe a bigger event like a sudden resignati..."Maybe a bigger event like a sudden resignation of Maduro? " Correct. Were he to resign, and I think based on the current economic plunge it is inevitable, must there be a new election, or can they just shuffle the deck? Yes, I know, they CAN do anything, but even avoiding a Presidential election? The key to your theory is quite simple, Maduro's days are numbered...Dr. Faustusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-88570206426473662612014-06-12T14:44:16.982+02:002014-06-12T14:44:16.982+02:00Of course I agree with you. But that is not good e...Of course I agree with you. But that is not good enough for the regime. Having corresponded with Pedro I am expecting that at anytime I will be in the published contact list as ALL the coup mongerers of Venezuela. Oh well.....Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12128609182544333477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-67728039003686541942014-06-12T12:23:06.840+02:002014-06-12T12:23:06.840+02:00"Pedro Burelli lives outside of Venezuela now..."Pedro Burelli lives outside of Venezuela now, is quietly building up his personal fortune in diverse venture capital and does not need to do anything with Venezuela."<br /><br />And yet, Pedro Burelli dedicates a good part of his time to fighting to re-install democracy in Venezuela. <br /><br />As we say in Venezuela, ME CONSTA PERSONALMENTE.<br /><br />He lobbies tirelessly to expose how this regime is anything but a democracy.<br /><br />He has never, either publicly or privately (in front of me) advocated for anything but a democratic solution to our woes.<br /><br />And as far as I have seen with my own eyes, he is extremely ethical as well as passionate about Venezuela.<br /><br />Just sayin' (not that I think that you believe otherwise, Daniel. This is for those who don't know him and his work)<br /><br />Roberto N<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-57678479950101745112014-06-12T11:25:17.684+02:002014-06-12T11:25:17.684+02:00What I see is the destruction of civil society in ...What I see is the destruction of civil society in Venezuela. By civil society, I mean political power that is distributed to each citizen as a right regardless of their age or size or strength or wealth. At this time the power is taken by those who can cause physical harm to others, including those who are armed with weapons.and those who can direct soldiers or gangs. Civil society may be very difficult to restore until the thugs are removed. Gordohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15691999086847940690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-63255303672700154922014-06-12T10:49:10.337+02:002014-06-12T10:49:10.337+02:00In about 50 years the enlightened opposition in Co...In about 50 years the enlightened opposition in Colombia will be complaining that about 110,000 Venezuelans are propping up the Colombian dictatorship. By that time Venezuelans will be as hated as Cubans are today. Perhaps by that time people will have forgotten about how sad Cubans were. That's my polytical physics theory. I won't be around to be proven wrong .<br />AntonioAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-72864239029209546392014-06-12T10:14:20.814+02:002014-06-12T10:14:20.814+02:00My one and only theory is that the PSUV owns Venez...My one and only theory is that the PSUV owns Venezuela,through Maduro,Cabello,Flores or whoever they put there, the disaster will continue.<br /><br />A coup,extreme landslide or massive protests(real protests,not the venezuelan guachafa thats been on since february)<br /><br />Oh yeah,the coup and the protests are not happening to chavismo,EVER.<br />So yeah,we'll see on year 3158 if we win the elections.Juan Crespohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13813847010096229013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4080946.post-23445694107894943162014-06-12T09:07:58.432+02:002014-06-12T09:07:58.432+02:00It is more a kind of bid, a forecast, a theory abo...It is more a kind of bid, a forecast, a theory about the volatile Situation don't make sense in my opinion. To the bid, I think the sole fact that the "Magnicidio" sketch adress overused Props (in the sort of the Posada Carriles tale) tells us how desperate the band is. Making use of Digital Communication as "proofs" of a "plan" only point at menace the users of digital media, an empty attempt btw. The other issue, Lopez Audios, can be a typical trap for traitors, it is an internal hunting inside the chavizmo. And I agree it goes against Cabello. Of course they need an Election but the question is wether they will reach the lifesaver before an Tsunami reach them (too explosive economical crisis)...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com