Can Chavez escape the fallout?

What happened to the image of the glorious bolibanana revolution these past few days is no mean feat, reminding us that you cannot hide your crimes forever.  Chavez might scream bloody murder as much as he wants, it might work at home for his more and more shrinking though increasingly imbecility stricken following, but it will not work overseas.


As I wrote yesterday, Zapatero government in Spain cannot take chances on any soft pedaling of the terrorist ETA because it could be enough to bring down his government in parliament, or elections.  Today the Spanish opposition PP was deadly clear in its request that Spain must demand a clear and complete explanation from the Venezuelan government for the issue to be settled.  It went as far as requesting formal break up with Chavez regime if the ETA-FARC-chavismo link is confirmed.  Let's not forget that Spain is currently holding the helm of the European Union and if Zapatero were to break with Venezuela it would mean that Europe would break.

It seems that someone brought some sense to Chavez already as Spanish foreign minister Moratinos told us that Chavez was willing to investigate the issue, even under protest.  I suppose that Fidel Castro who needs Europe badly told Chavez to gain time until he could find some scapegoat.  Interestingly, and undiplomatically, Moratinos also told us that Chavez bitched at him and the Spanish judicial system.  Had Moratinos become so cozy with Chavez that they allowed Moratinos subconscious betray him?

But Chavez needs to watch more than over his shoulder toward Spain: Colombia very politely has announced that it expects explanations over the fact, the more so that in the terrorist plans were the murder of ex-president Pastrana and current Uribe.  Granted, Colombia might be less of an annoyance for Chavez than Europe but not coming clear with it would kill Chavez favorite line: Colombians want to kill me!!!!!

And let's not forget about the AICHR report that the US want to discuss at the OAS.....

It is far from over folks and Chavez might be in for his hardest diplomatic time since he is in office, with a check book not as fat as it used to be....  and allies tarnished by their silence on too many Human Rights abuses.  Imagine the use that Serra in Brazil could do of a Lula blocking discussion of these issues at the OAS assembly.  Lula might be tempted to ditch Chavez there to make sure that Roussef wins. Just to name a case in point.