Venezuela's electoral numbers 2012: 3- time to call it for Capriles?

Yes, I think I am ready to call it for Capriles. Remember, that his winning does not assure that he will take office as the thugs in Miraflores palace may have other plans. Also, there is still a month and a half of campaign left and all is possible, even the unthinkable that would plunge the country in chaos. But based on my trend studies, based on the obvious organization and enthusiasm in Capriles campaign, based on the obvious mess in the Chavez camp, I think that right now, today, if elections were held, Capriles would win by at least 100.000, with a potential to grow 300,000 by the end of the month.

Before you read the tables below, a few things to keep in mind.


Polls: only one, that I know of, is calling already for a narrow Capriles lead.  But all serious pollsters are having a positive trend for Capriles.  His camp has even hinted that they are expecting a 500.000 victory margin. As such my trend study is walking hand in hand with these polling numbers so neither one is far of the mark :)

Votes: due to chavismo powerful blackmailing machine, it is my feeling that many people today will say that they are not voting for Capriles.  But more than at any time in recent elections there is the strong possibility that hundred of thousand may change their vote at the voting booth.....  thus I am expecting, and I come on record now with that, at least 200,000 votes more for Capriles than whatever polls say October 1.

Data: as always, my data comes straight from CNE pages and I pretend it as true.  That means I am not dwelling on fraud reported in remote centers, etc...  The point is that even with the CNE data, I see a Capriles win in October. If indeed the opposition manages to cover effectively all centers this time around, then the stronger a Capriles victory will be.  Note: "total" numbers in the tables may not match exactly some of the totals numbers reported by the CNE because I have been rounding up a lot.  That is, 123,456 becomes 123 or even 120 K votes.

Method: I confess that I have been a little bit more sloppy than in previous estimates.  But my private life has been complicated since April and I simply do not have the time or energy to look into as much provincial information and trends as I used to do.  Still, my starting point from past elections is good and I have tried to compensate my accidental sloppiness through very conservative estimates.

Starting points: I used the Rosales/Chavez of 2006.  The most relevant election since then was the parliamentary election of 2010 because Chavez invested himself so much in it, making it an election about him, at least in part.  In that election I considered the results for the "parlatino". In my opinion, the vote for an unknown Latin American parliament is freer of local factors, more likely to be a knee-jerk vote.  There was, besides the opposition list, a PPT and an OPINA lists who did little but enough in some states to influence next October outcome, depending on how these voters shift.  Being conservative I assumed that half of OPINA and PPT would go Capriles.  The rest?  Who knows... I do not subscribe to the opposition thesis that PPT votes will all go Capriles.  The last starting block was the opposition primary results which I was sent to and processed last February in several posts.

Background: you may want to consult three previous posts to help you understand better some of the tables below, the post on why I gave Capriles a starting point of 5 million + vote from the primary result, the trend away from Chavez in popular classes as per my long term watch of Caucagïta, and the three key states of Bolivar, Anzoategui and Lara which I put in purple in one of the tables.

And now the tables. I discovered that I can copy paste excel tables in blogger but some format is lost. It does have the advantage of simplicity for me and the same background.

In the first table we look at how the pro Chavez vote went down between 2006 and 2010.  I have noted the CNE registered voters in the first column but these numbers may change.  There are there for reference in the relative strength of each state.

In pink we can see the states where chavismo dropped more than 20%, and thus the states where the opposition has the most to win, in particular by making sure that its representatives are watching out every voting station.  and in purple what I consider the three major battle ground states.  I am not including there Miranda and Zulia because they are very polarized states from the start and neither side can hope to make much inroads in those at this point. Besides both states have 99% odds to go Capriles.

In the last column I assume that Chavez will make some recovery of the lost ground, as much as 30% of the lost vote in states where his voters abandoned him by more than 20% and only a 15% recover of lost votes in the other states, since I assume that the lower drop meant a more seated polarization, less pickings for each side.

	Registered Voters 2012	Chavez 2006	parlatino psuv	PSUV-CHAVEZ drop in 2010	recovery 2012?
Apure	292	126	98	-22%	106
Portuguesa	544	274	205	-25%	226
Guarico	471	217	160	-26%	177
Barinas	497	212	167	-21%	181
Cojedes	211	100	78	-22%	85
Trujillo	472	210	171	-19%	177
Merida	550	202	174	-14%	178
Tachira	755	258	207	-20%	215
Anzoategui	950	374	266	-29%	298
Nueva Esparta	305	113	75	-34%	86
Monagas	562	254	186	-27%	206
Sucre	602	269	163	-39%	195
Bolivar	894	372	241	-35%	280
Delta Amacuro	108	53	50	-6%	50
Amazonas	75	40	24	-40%	29
Aragua	1.112	538	345	-36%	403
Carabobo	1.416	584	385	-34%	445
Libertador	1.556	658	463	-30%	522
Miranda	1.858	693	650	-6%	656
Vargas	254	113	81	-28%	91
Zulia	2.229	724	655	-10%	665
Yaracuy	388	163	127	-22%	138
Falcon	597	237	180	-24%	197
Lara	1.142	516	213	-59%	304
Total	17840	7300	5364		5910
	Registered	Chavez 2006	PSUV 2010		Chavez 2012?

In the next table we look at opposition gains since 2006 when Rosales was candidate.  This is the most complex of the lot, sorry.

First column, registered voters.
Second column, from my post in February as to my projections for Capriles based on the primary result. This is what I consider the lowest he will get in October.
Next column is Rosales in 2006, for the record.
Then we have the parlatino vote in 2010, which leads in the shift from 2006 to 2010 next column in percentage. Some cases in pink show that the opposition in some instances did lose a few votes, which is the case in Miranda that I am at a loss to explain, except that there OPINA did a good score.
Which leads us to the next column where I added the PPT and OPINA votes, particularly important in Lara, Miranda and Amazonas.
The last column adds up the 2010 opposition vote plus HALF of the OPINA+PPT vote. You will note that it is slightly below my Capriles prediction in base of his primaries.  Let's call this column the minimum that Capriles will get in October, no matter what, still a hefty million more than Rosales in 2006.

	Voters 2012	Primary projection for HCR	Rosales 2006	Opposition 2010	OPPO SHIFT 2006-2010	2010 opina+ppt	OPPO LOWEST 2010?
Apure	292	58	54	52	-4%	6	55
Portuguesa	544	112	81	97	20%	12	103
Guarico	471	124	84	80	-5%	32	96
Barinas	497	133	95	121	27%	9	126
Cojedes	211	47	36	37	3%	5	40
Trujillo	472	109	92	94	2%	8	98
Merida	550	165	173	173	0%	10	178
Tachira	755	246	245	282	15%	13	289
Anzoategui	950	284	235	313	33%	17	322
Nueva Esparta	305	93	79	102	29%	8	106
Monagas	562	124	103	119	16%	12	125
Sucre	602	181	95	140	47%	12	146
Bolivar	894	270	169	229	36%	22	240
Delta Amacuro	108	16	15	15	0%	2	16
Amazonas	75	27	11	7	-36%	24	19
Aragua	1.112	333	209	318	52%	25	331
Carabobo	1.416	468	360	451	25%	36	469
Libertador	1.556	479	387	460	19%	50	485
Miranda	1.858	700	525	480	-9%	44	502
Vargas	254	58	49	62	27%	6	65
Zulia	2.229	689	683	820	20%	13	827
Yaracuy	388	96	87	82	-6%	21	93
Falcon	597	160	142	158	11%	12	164
Lara	1.142	358	258	289	12%	208	393
TOTAL	17.840	5.328	4.267	4.981			5.285

In this next table we have a first look at Chavez versus Capriles next October.  This is my most conservative scenario, the worst that Capriles can do if his campaign were to start floundering through September.

Here I simply compare the votes between Chavez and Rosales in 2006 and what I expect these results to be in 2012 with Capriles. In other words, I see that Chavez has lost 1.3 million while the opposition gained 1 million (implying more abstention than in 2006, mostly due to chavista voters staying home).  In this worst case scenario, Capriles loses by 600.  But in the next table, I try to take into account other factors which reverse that result.  But before we go there observe that this 1 million gain for the opposition offers very significant state gains compared to 2006, highlighted in pale blue.  Miranda does not figure in the gains because Rosales did poorly there in 2006. But all logic, observations, etc., give Miranda to Capriles in October

	Registered Voters 2012	Chavez 2006	Chavez 2012?		Rosales 2006	Capriles 2010?
Apure	292	126	106		54	55
Portuguesa	544	274	226		81	103
Guarico	471	217	177		84	96
Barinas	497	212	181		95	126
Cojedes	211	100	85		36	40
Trujillo	472	210	177		92	98
Merida	550	202	178		173	178
Tachira	755	258	215		245	289
Anzoategui	950	374	298		235	322
Nueva Esparta	305	113	86		79	106
Monagas	562	254	206		103	125
Sucre	602	269	195		95	146
Bolivar	894	372	280		169	240
Delta Amacuro	108	53	50		15	16
Amazonas	75	40	29		11	19
Aragua	1.112	538	403		209	331
Carabobo	1.416	584	445		360	469
Libertador	1.556	658	522		387	485
Miranda	1.858	693	656		525	502
Vargas	254	113	91		49	65
Zulia	2.229	724	665		683	827
Yaracuy	388	163	138		87	93
Falcon	597	237	197		142	164
Lara	1.142	516	304		258	393
Total	17840	7300	5910		4267	5285

Thus we reach the last table which is where more of my gut feeling and recent observations come into play, such as voiding the scenario where Miranda would not be won by Capriles.  In that table I still remain conservative.

In this table Chavez 2012? and Capriles 2012? are values "corrected" from above. For example I actually improve Chavez in Guarico in spite of a bad result in 2010.  But in general I improve Capriles and lower Chavez based on the political mistakes that Chavez perpetrates and the expected local consequences (not trying to be more impressed than necessary by Capriles street showings, remember, conservative estimates!)

With these corrections now Capriles beats Chavez by 100,000.  I know, I know, it is all very subjective to my appreciations (and I can still change by October). But I persist and went further by adding two columns of states where I think there is a current down trend for Chavez and an uptrend for Capriles.  These should come to fruition by September and then Capriles in my speculation will be ahead by 300,000 votes. Note that and uptrend for one does not imply a downtrend in the other.  What I am trying to guess, among other, is how abstention evolves. By the way, in this "corrected" scenario I see almost 300,000 voters than in 2006.

	Registered Voters 2012	Chavez 2006	Chavez 2012?	downtrend Chavez	Rosales 2006	Capriles 2012?	uptrend Capriles
Apure	292	126	106		54	65
Portuguesa	544	274	226	10	81	103	10
Guarico	471	217	177		84	100	10
Barinas	497	212	175		95	130
Cojedes	211	100	80		36	40	5
Trujillo	472	210	175		92	105	10
Merida	550	202	170	5	173	190
Tachira	755	258	215		245	289
Anzoategui	950	374	280	10	235	330
Nueva Esparta	305	113	86	5	79	106
Monagas	562	254	190	10	103	150	10
Sucre	602	269	180		95	160	20
Bolivar	894	372	250		169	260	5
Delta Amacuro	108	53	40		15	20
Amazonas	75	40	30		11	25	5
Aragua	1.112	538	403		209	360
Carabobo	1.416	584	440	10	360	480
Libertador	1.556	658	500	10	387	525	10
Miranda	1.858	693	550	10	525	650	10
Vargas	254	113	91	5	49	65	5
Zulia	2.229	724	665	15	683	850
Yaracuy	388	163	115	5	87	100
Falcon	597	237	170	5	142	175	5
Lara	1.142	516	280		258	420
Total	17840	7300	5594	100	4267	5697	105
Total if?				5494			5802

So there you have it, my first official prediction. Capriles winning by 300,000. If any one can prove me wrong, you are welcome to make your case.  It should not be too difficult as there is a lot of guessing and gut feeling above.  But be warned that it is coherent and based on much more than how many people show up at Capriles rallies or do not show up at Chavez shows. If one were to use that criteria Capriles by now would be winning by a couple of million of votes.

In other words, what I am hinting at is that this election more than ever will depend on abstention, this one this time jeopardizing the chances of Chavez as his followers may not be ready to vote for Capriles but are more than ready to stay home in disgust.  That is the number to watch on polls and through election day.