Capriles officially does not recognize the election result

You may say that there is no surprise there, but the intention of last night special TV show of Capriles was to announce officially that under the conditions set by the CNE the opposition will not accept to participate in the audit and that it will push forward to denounce in court the election, "impugnar" we call it here. In other words, the ante has been pushed up since last night.

The first problem here is that the Venezuelan electoral board, CNE, has yet to describe how the audit is going to proceed. Capriles set a deadline for Thursday, and the CNE has not sent, that we know of, even a phone call to ask for, say, 24 hours more. No. The dithering of the CNE, Thursday gathered but "unofficially" so no communique could be issued, was a mere taunt.

Since it is clear that the regime has no intention of doing a serious audit (1), the opposition has no other choice than to legally denounce the election and ask for a new one, or at the very least a repeat of all the questioned centers (2), if those one amount to a potential of enough votes to change the final outcome. That would require, and it is my guess, that at least 1 million voters are called back to vote to annul the thin Maduro "margin of victory" and give Capriles a 1 vote majority. Or something like that. Right there you can understand that every single center which voting is contested has to be fought to death to force a new vote.

But then again, say, if the opposition makes a case for more than 2 million voters to vote again, we might as well make the case for repeating the April 14 election altogether.  The paradox is that the regime may actually want to annul the election anyway, thus avoiding an audit that it knows it will lose, and even worse, an audit result that will question results for previous elections all the way back to 2004 recall election fraud........ At least, this is what the few chavista left with some common sense should push for as the least of all evils for them.

My guess is that the regime is going to let Capriles go to court, exhaust him as much as possible him there and avoid the audit. As a P.R. it will be a disaster but for those thugs it does not matter much as long as they remain in office, free of legal prosecution. We can expect on the shirt term increased repression, and grotesque stone walling.

But even the best of stone walling will not serve them well.

First, the simple act of "impugnar" is enough to throw a doubt internationally on the election results  As such, serious countries, will automatically avoid signing major commitments with a regime that could be found out to be illegal suddenly with the people coming after having an excellent excuse not to pay.

Second, Venezuela automatically becomes irrelevant in international forums, what has happened to Iran after Moussavi was robbed of his victory. Not that Iran was much relevant before but after the post electoral repression Iran had to dig in at home and Ahmadinejerk can only travel to countries like Venezuela or its ALBA clients.

Third, as the regime keeps stalling and Venezuela opposition brings its case to international courts, from electoral fraud to fascist lay off of public workers, its ability to function decreases and even the elite economic prospects start being affected, fostering further internal divisions inside chavismo as el pueblo realizes that a regime that is so "cara dura", stone faced, is not worth supporting. And thus, by the end of the year, the regime may have lost enough support that it is not inconceivable that the OAS decides to apply to it the Interamerican Chart for Human Rights (or even Mercosur demands the application of the Ushuaia agreements once Paraguay returns to the fold and gets its hoped for revenge against Maduro (3).

And I can keep evaluating the consequences  But I trust you get my drift, that it is only starting and that difficult days await us ahead. Do not forget that not only the regime has to deal with fraud accusations that are credible, but it has aggravated its case by closing down parliament for all practical purposes, and shown its true fascist nature in the crass manipulation of information by making up outright lies shown in cadena, while abusing all sorts of workers rights. Chavez could get away with some of that because many believed his claim of 4ta republica, sabotage and what not. But Maduro does not have that advantage: he inherits a public administration and a legal system that has been set by them, through 14 years, and that know they want to do without. Overseas, that is not acceptable (4). It is clear for all that the opposition does not have the means to perpetrate the crimes that the regime is trying to paint on it.

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1) Serious audit: having access to the voting books where all voters must sign and stamp their thumb prints. This is the only way to know who really voted, who had the right to vote, who voted more than once. In other words, this si where the fraud resides and why the CNE does not want to surrender the books for examination.

2) Questioned centers: this is where the opposition has unassailable grounds as there are even videos of electoral abuses that simply cannot be dismissed, such as chavista officials watching directly how people voted. And the protests originated early on Sunday 14 so the CNE cannot play dumb. Apparently there are enough reports of those "voto asistido", assisted vote, centers that the opposition claims that 1 million at least should be asked to vote again without pressure.

3) Maduro was caught red handed trying to interfere in Paraguay internal affairs, stirring the military to make a coup. I van assure you that once Paraguay returns in the Mercosur fold, they will not have forgotten that and at the first opportunity will demand the application of democracy clauses of Mercosur against Venezuela.

4) I am giving you a simple telling example. In Spain Rajoy has tried to accept Maduro "victory" after he was promptly brow beaten by threats against Movistar, Repsol and BBVA, big Spanish interests in Venezuela. Even though he was prompt in accusing the socialist in power to be too lax in with Chavez when he was in opposition  Thus El Pais, center left, goes as far as translating into English some of its major recent articles on the crisis, and strong editorials.