I have taken the table published in my lone electoral analysis post for this time around, but I have added arbitrarily a value on the win/lose result.
That is, for example, if Ledezma wins the opposition only gets 2 points, those for the obscene regime electoral advantage, but if it loses it it loses 6 points, mostly for the psychological impact it will have.
Thus points are not directly proportional to the size of the district, but much more on the psychological meaning of a given result and how that could influence future political developments. All very, very arbitrary, of course. My lone opinion but you are more than welcome to question a given "ranking" in comments.
At the end, I have calculated what a given point total means, from a disaster for the opposition to a victory that would justify this one to call outright a constitutional assembly as the only way to get rid of the corruption of chavismo.
My own gut feeling score is 30, which means that the opposition will do good enough to allow a strong questioning of Maduro inside chavismo, but not good enough to render the opposition able to throw a direct challenge. For that 61 points or more must be reached. The economic crisis is simply not deep enough yet to make people start thinking about the well founded nature of a regime based on dependency tot he ruling party.
Have fun.
PS1: in the format of my excel table source I could not put more accurate signs like ≥ so bear with the slight error in the way I wrote the margins with the < and > characters.
PS2: if all goes well in the table you cannot get more than 99 points. And if the opposition fails to win anything and loses the indicated districts it already owns, the score is -24.
Thanks, that´s the base for an intriguing board game! Just add dice, cards, stones, a board and rules who heavily favour the player with the red stones. The goal of the player with the red stones is to grab as many free TV sets and computers as possible. In the meantime, the player with the red-blue-yellow stones has to score 61 points in the elections. Things can be made more interesting by introducing rolling blackouts, natural disasters and motorbike gangs, just like in real life.
ReplyDeleteYou can also use a Ouija board if it helps. Maduro surely does!
Delete:)
ta bien daniel, posteo aqui mi score basado en tu tabla
ReplyDeleteme dan 22 puntos, like this:
I call close call on los teques, guatire,valencia, san felipe, independencia,barinas.
I call impossible an oppo win on vargas, urariche, valera, san juan de los morros, puerto ordaz.
I call sure for oppo: barquisimeto, san cristobal and merida
net score:
oppo winning in guatire, maracay, valencia, barquisimeto, maracaibo, san cristobal, merida, greater caracas, barinas, porlamar and ciudad bolivar (total, 22 points) and being super optimistic, los teques (+1), independencia (+1)
lets see what happens at the end
My call is for a solid +39, let's see how it goes :)
ReplyDeletespill the beans, just for the fun of it
DeleteWell, so far the oppo got.... 20 points. We need to see how it goes in Valera and San Juan de los Morros. Just a small progress
ReplyDelete