1- This is an extremely emotional election, harnessed by powerful blackmail and fear campaign tactics. Voting patterns can change significantly as late as Sunday.
2- Poll are unanimous in predicting a MUD alliance victory. Yet, Datanalisis always in search of notoriety has announced this week that Maduro recovered personally 11% of its "popularity" without explaining what this meant to their earlier numbers. Someone pointed out that Luis Vicente Leon could not rest his ever present wish to be in the forefront, to "declare just for the sake of declaring".
3- This blogger has not performed the painstaking analysis done in previous years. Then he got it right more often than wrong. This time around I will limit myself to examine the possibilities since there was no time, nor will to do the work for personal reasons. Let's say charitably that I base myself on memories and educated gut feeling district per district, under strict prudent assertions, from older data.
4- And of course this assumes that votes will be indeed counted as they come. But let's not be picky about that now as predicting the extent of actual ballot stuffing cannot be predicted. For simplicity let's assume that the regime will count the ballots.
This being said, as in the previous installment, I have divided the 167 seats to be voted on as "safe" "leaning" and "toss up". Let's just say that "safe" means 85% probability of victory, "leaning" 70% probability of victory and toss up, less than that. Thus a final prediction means an arithmetic calculation out of the 5 groups.
Case 1: 10% difference between MUD and PSUV
A narrow victory for the opposition, due to the gerrymandering of electoral districts and the bonus for the PSUV coming from states which are very dependent on social programs.
Case 2: 15% difference between MUD and PSUV
Things improve a little bit for the opposition but the gerrymandering still plays heavily against the comfortable majority the winner would get in a normally functioning democracy.
Case 3; 20% spread between MUD and PSUV
This is still not good enough. The MUD needs a 3/5 super-majority to be able to resit the pressure and abuse of the regime. and be "veto" proof on some type of legislation. That is, the MUD needs to gain 101 seats.
In this case things look a little bit better as the gerrymandering effect starts fading some. The opposition MUD would be getting at least 100 seats and as much as 105. The super-majority number being 101, it is clear that the opposition getting less than 20% more votes than the PSUV will allow the regime to postpone the debacle.
I am not going to calculate what is the spread the MUD needs to get the 2/3 majority in parliament which would mean the end of the regime but I guess it is at least a 25% vote advantage, a majority that as of now I do not see happening. Too many people are willing to bitch about Maduro but once in front of the voting machine, their vote becomes conservative, conservative having become PSUV. In democracy a conservative vote is always the one given to a party that has been more than ten years in office, a situation that people simply are afraid to change.
My final prediction?
I think I am going to go with case 2 with a few provisions. There may be a couple of independents squeaking in. Some upsets may not happen.
So I am going to go with 96 seats and 16% more votes for MUD than for PSUV. Why not? As crazy as any other prediction to be found around. My optimist outcome is 18% ahead with 101 and my pessimist is 13% with 92.
One thing I believe strongly and international community seems to have completely missed with the smartmatic elections is the percentage that vote. International press seems to believe that PSUV is very good at getting its supporters out to vote. They seem to miss that fact that you don't need to come out and vote to have your vote cast. Last election near everyone had to vote in order to have so many people vote. Sorry that's not what's happening. Prior to the smartmatic machines my wife's friend in government was part of the organizing group taking Colombians from voting station to voting station casting multiple votes for even dead people. The smartmatic machines allows the government to cast what ever percent of the voting populous that don't vote into their favour. It bugs me to read the media to say how good they are at getting out the vote.
ReplyDeleteMaduro''s ultimate goal is pure repression with max exodus of the population to neighboring countries leaving just the thugs to deal drugs and oil with no resistance left. And who is there that will stop him.
Smart-tastic!....wasn't it Tibsi that said there would be no auditing whatsoever? ..
ReplyDeleteI believe they" Chavismo " have targeted their goals..they will watch vote tallies in real time,as suspected...then do as they do......who will stop them?....saying that...it's the most exciting election is ever watched....good luck!!
I'm going to go with the "squeaky majority" because that is probably what the regime wants. I doubt they think they could manufacture a "victory" without widespread civil unrest, and that would require the willingness of the military to fire on their own citizens. I know some hardcore anti-chavistas assume the military will do this. However, you have to remember, the guys doing the firing are people who group up with the same people they'd be shooting. More than one dictatorship fell because it gave orders to fire on civilians and the soldiers wouldn't comply.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I'm not being optimistic, a true vote would result in an overwhelming opposition victory. Maduro et al aren't going to allow a 2/3 majority for the opposition, so there will be some rigging on the margins. The questions is would citizenry accept it and if it didn't, we are back to the question I raised above, would soldiers fire on their own citizens?
Agre. Been saying it for months. If the regime is not high on Crack and completely stupid, plus masochistic and suicidal, they are salivating for a laughable little "MUD victory". They will fins ways to still dominate the laughable Venezuelan "Parliament". Namely, Bribes. A realazo limpio. $$$ to the MUD. And it will all look so lovely and "democratic"..
DeleteThe reasons they will accept and orchestrate a small MUD "win" include these 2:
- To avoid a massive popular revolt, with International support, as people are not stupid, everyone knows Chavismo does not have a majority, at all. An uncontrolled, excessive Fraud with Smartmatic and all would be rejected. Too obvious.
- A laughable MUD win would allow the regime to blame the Venezuelan Economic disaster on the new "burguesito Parlamento de la derecha". They will blame everything on the MUD "ah, no nos dejan gobernar y se roban la comida del pueblo". Chavismo is highly proficient on blaming other people for everything, starting in January expect Maduro and Cabello to blame everything on the MUD new diputados. Just what the doctor ordered for those chavista scum bags
Your giving them a lot of intelligence credit. I still say they want a revolt and want to cause mass exodus from the country.
DeleteYour giving them a lot of intelligence credit. I still say they want a revolt and want to cause mass exodus from the country.
DeleteConsDemo I like your thinking. They will show the oppo winning but by a smallish margin and zero political power but then "how can they complain, they won".
ReplyDeleteBingo guys
ReplyDeleteIn light of this new study, I will reluctantly raise my longtime prediction to an 8% MUD "win".
ReplyDelete"The MUD needs a 3/5 super-majority to be able to resit the pressure and abuse of the regime. and be "veto" proof on some type of legislation. "
Not sure why everyone keeps saying that. Unless we lost all memory, after 40 years of ad/copey corruption and 17 years of Chavista Kleptomaniacs, which included lots of MUD too. Even in the highly unlikely 3/5 Muddy Super-Majority, what prevents Cabello and the Thugs at PDVSA to BRIBE half of those new MUD diputados. We are talking about highly corruptible people like Ramos Allup or worse, after all. All these young new MUD diputados are clearly famished for Money and power. I'd venture to guess that more then half will be Purchased. And others will be extorsionados and intimidated by the despicable, corrupt Chavista Regime. People seem to forget who still has the money, and the Executive Branch. Plus the infamous Military, the Guardia Nazional, Sebin. Plus the ineffable TSJ thugs.
So any MUD majority will be highly diminished, controlled by massive bribes and intimidation.