In praise of the two MUD solution: 1- a new realitity

Let's be frank about it: when Obama and the Pope imposed a dialogue on the Venezuelan opposition MUD alliance they screwed us bad. But at least there is a tiny silver lining: the contradictions inside the MUD are now apparent and must be dealt with.

The recap is simple and at this point in this blog seems redundant. Obama did not want any trouble in the Caribbean while he was trying to bring out of the cold the Cuban dictatorship. In the failed hope that it would favor Hillary electoral prospects when the political situation in Venezuela became tense last summer State sent Thomas Shannon several times to Venezuela to promote a "dialogue". To add weight to the pressure the Vatican was recklessly brought in; a Vatican, need I say, led by a Pope with what we could call more socially liberal ideas, rarely adapted to real politic when you deal with dictatorships.


The rest is history. The Venezuelan regime surfed comfortably over the dialogue wrecking it as wanted, while claiming that they wanted dialogue and more dialogue. The MUD unraveled, the streets got cold and the regime got a very significant extension on its life. Probably until 2019 at the very least. In what shape will the country be in 2019 is not difficult to predict and by then probably no one but narco-chavismo will want it.

But the political scenario emerging this year is not what everyone expected. See, history has a way not to repeat itself. Obama lost its gambit, Cuba is more repressive and so his Venezuela. When the question "who lost Venezuela/Cuba?" will be asked the guilty will not be Bush or Clinton but Obama. Never mind that his indecisiveness masked as grace by his late supporters have probably done a lot to bring forth the "need" for a strong man among enough US voters. Thus the uncomfortable truth that Obama helped a lot to bring the promising disaster of Trump. I have the feeling that in the end Obama will be ranked poorly as a president, when all have a chance to examine how all of his unfinished and untied schemes unravel. Having a scandal free White House simply is not enough to make a Rushmore like president.

So there is Trump and he owes nothing to the Pope. He actually does not give a shit about the Pope. And so far, amazingly, the only aspect in which he has been coherent is toward his non Mexican Latin America policy. If the approach to Mexico is a reckless disaster that has not been the case with the rest. President by president have received a friendly phone call, considerate, business like and often including a conversation about Venezuelan prospects. At least thus it comes from Panama, Peru and Argentina. The now famous "best tweet" of Trump receiving most known political prisoner wife Lilian Tintori at the White House has not been a shot in the dark.

To this you certainly must add that the Vice President of Venezuela has been put on the Treasury Department black list. For drug trafficking. For fake passports. For corruption. For whatever. Us here in Venezuela know very well that Tareck El Aissami fate is to rot in hell, preferably after a few years in some earthly slammer. The problem for the Venezuelan regime is not that Tareck has been penciled in that list. The problem is that he was not the first one and apparently he will not be the last one.

Thus the happy regime that made it to January 10, without a single sanction for violating the Constitution in blocking the recall election is again on the defense. The lull will have lasted barely a month.

Right now the regime is circling its wagons. All rally around Tareck not for love but for survival. I can assure you that if there was a way to send Tareck to the US without internal consequences, he would already be in lots of trouble at home.

If you are not in agreement that the support for Tareck is not out of good will and sincere love, look at what the regime is doing to Venezuela. There is hunger and disease all around and yet, money keeps flowing to Cuba, interests on debt are payed and corruption rakes whatever is left. The heartless nature of the regime, or rather its total lack of humanity is easy to understand: their fate is sealed if they lose power, even if they lose any small parcel of power. None of them, be it Tareck, be it Maduro himself can be thrown away because it would be the time when the regime unravels.

So what else is left for the regime? To begin with, alongside increased repression and constitutional violations, besides trying to bring back desperately the dialogue to clean up its image facing Trump, it decided to make elections impossible this year by demanding a new registration of all political parties. No need to go into the details of the measures taken, suffice to say that the timetables stated are difficult to meet, that the process will drag long enough to kill any election in 2017 and that to boot there is a way to include chavista folks signing down for opposition parties and then suing for fraud because "they have been tricked into". We have seen that movie, we are expecting the remakes. Then the courts can adjourn the registration renewal of any dangerous political parties and hold elections with only the regime party PSUV and a few non dangerous unpopular token ones. Brilliant!

So, what will the opposition do?
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Written listening to Haydn London symphonies, always good to clarify one's mind.