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Monday, August 16, 2004

Electoral coup d'etat strange mechanics

Saying that a coup has strange mechanics is an oxymoron, of course.

But I need to stress a few points:

The CNE MUST gather its five members and vote on any major declaration. If the declaration is voted by 3 members out of 5, then it can be read and published. THIS WAS NOT DONE but it was done all the time in all previous processes, such as the controversial repair mechanism. Why such change in proceedings? And why in the wee hours?

The OAS and the Carter Center can only emit a report in which they will say that the election was OK or not. IT IS NOT UP TO THEM to recount ballots, etc... However a bad report is enough to activate the American Charter and international sanctions. This is what happened to Fujimori. For a while he prevailed but eventually he had to give up.

It is just impossible to have two sides with such extreme results. One side is simply not telling the truth. This is of course obvious. But if I stress this it is because after such a crass manipulation of data it is very difficult to backtrack. This is the reason why civil wars start: one side went too far in its petulance and no more face saving was possible.

The streets are far from being delirious with chavistas celebrating. This is not normal. Yes, a few cars are honking away in the the night (well, it is dawn now). Some fireworks are thrown. But that is that in San Felipe. Strange, no? Could it be that chavistas really know that they lost? After all they live with relatives and neighbours and surely they must know where the majority went.

And again the lack of cadena. Is it because he is reluctant to provoke needlessly the international observers? Is it because he is wavering? He has done cadenas for far lesser things, no? Now that he has reached the edge of brinkmanship, what next? Will he go the next logical step and shut down the media? Arrest opponents?

Our country is in great, great danger.

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