Chavez making a fool of himself at Doha; invites genocide Bashir to Venezuela

[UPDATED]
I could not have hoped for a faster confirmation on my two recent post on foreign affairs. In the first one I mentioned that Venezuela, or rather Chavez, had not been invited to the Viña del Mar conference for progressive leaders to offer proposals to the coming G20. In the second post I criticized Lula for defending Chavez against all common sense. Well, Chavez today showed that he was really pissed off at not been invited at Viña del Mar and along the way embarrassed further Lula who will have even more of a hard time dodging questions about Chavez.

The first thing that hit the newsroom in Venezuela was the declarations of Chavez against Chile's Bachelet in Doha. The event in Doha, Qatar, is a "summit" between the Arab League and South American countries to promote trade. It is not to promote democracy of course as even Iran (not a member of the league) is more democratic than most of the Arab league members. The league, not democratic, some of its members militantly Muslims, challenged the rest of the world in its own summit held yesterday by inviting al-Bashir, the genocidal president of Sudan, currently with an international arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. Interestingly if you look at the map of the ICC you will notice that only three Arab League countries belong to that International Court (the US, by the way, does not, but Venezuela does).

So why did poor Bachelet deserved the wrath of Chavez? According to the Tal Cual release (nothing in English yet, sorry!)

"There are some progressives around here that I do not understand (...) They do not do anything good for the unity of South America when president Bachelet calls for a meeting with the Vice President of the USA and the British Prime Minister (...) Two representatives of the Empires! I think that this jeopardizes South America Unity!"

Oh dear! Where should we start?

With the ignorance of Chavez entourage that was not able to explain to him that this Viña del Mar meeting had nothing to do with South America? Or with Chavez bad faith at not been invited and uttering such spiteful remarks, implying that unity is only possible with him at the helm? Truly, he is pissed of not having been invited. The pariah status he is gaining is starting to affect him. As I wrote then, it is clear that when serious work is required folks like Chavez are not invited.

So, not been able to steal the show at Viña Del Mar he went ahead to steal the one at Doha. After all in Doha little work was expected anyway as it is more of a P.R. show summit than anything else, where the only objective of the Arab countries is to trump their nose at the West by hanging out with some Latin Leaders. Any serious work of the Arab League was done the day before.

So Chavez arrived proposing a new "petro currency" to replace the dollar. What is that fixation with creating world currencies when Chavez is unable to manage his own currency? What would he do with his spending ways if Venezuela depends from another currency for its accounts and populist programs?

Then to remain the darling of Muslim fundamentalist countries he stole the show by defending al-Bashir and dismissing the ICC even though Venezuela is subjected to its decisions. He wondered aloud why the ICC was not arresting Bush before arresting al-Bashir. The only thing that this reveals is his conception of justice, Venezuelan style, where Chavez announces on TV what politicians he wants to see behind bars, and quickly HIS judicial gang proceeds to forge any necessary evidence. A smart journalists would ask Chavez whether he submitted to the ICC a well documented case to arrest Bush or Olmert. Probably the thought never crossed Chavez mind....... Or the journalist could simply ask whether Chavez read the al-Bashir file.

And then he invited al-Bashir over to Venezuela. I am sure that the Darfur experience will be of great use to Chavez when he decides to kill off the opposition that refuses to submit to his military regime. Not to mention that al-Bashir can offer tips to Chavez on how to escape international prosecution when his turn will finally come. Asinus asinum fricat.

Watch next:

• The next interview of Lula by a big gun as Zakaria....
• Venezuela lame excuses to leave the ICC....
• Bachelet refusing to meet Chavez ever again
• The International Socialist group visiting Venezuela and Chavez possibly not receiving them
• al-Bashir probably will not come as he knows better than going to an ICC country (though admittedly Chavez could use this as an excuse to pull Venezuela out)
• But if al-Bashir does not come expect a "triumphant" tour through Arabic countries by Chavez anytime soon.
• And more, much more comedy sketches to this show "loud mouths in search of an audience"
  

Update: Cristina Kirchner, certainly not a very admirable leader, today did something good for her very tarnished image: she was the only leader at Doha who did not take part in the "family picture" and who stood up and left when Bashir turn to speak came.

Update 2: do not miss this great editorial of the Washington Post

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Lula knows he screwed on Venezuela and Chavez

I was watching today an interview of Brazil's president Lula da Silva on CNN, conducted by Fareed Zakaria (1). The interview was very interesting. Lula has answers to everything and rather thoughtful answers (for example his thoughts about expanding the UN security membership and its role). He might be an union worker in origin but that has not stopped him from learning a lot along the way. However all his self assurance was sorely tested when Mr. Zakaria asked him on Chavez. The approximate transcript first, click on pics to enlarge (2).

Zakaria: You are regarded as a great symbol of democracy in the Americas [more flattering comments follow] And yet some people say that you have been quiet as Hugo Chavez has hollowed out and destroyed democracy in Venezuela. You have greeted him as a friend, you have not really criticized the complete reversal of democracy in Venezuela. Why not speak out about it if Brazil wants to take a greater role in the world? Would that not be a part of it, to stand for certain values?

Lula: [during the question it was fascinating to watch Lula's face: from dead serious he put up a laughing grimace without noise, something clearly designed to hide his real thoughts and trying to ridicule the question which coming from that kind of interviewer is simply not possible to do and demeans Lula more than anything he could do to demean Zakaria] Maybe we cannot agree with Venezuela democracy. But no one can say that there is no democracy in Venezuela. [some strange and irrelevant mumblings follow about him having less years than Chavez in office and that Chavez went through so many elections while he himself went through only two]

Zakaria: Wouldn't you like to have had the advantages he has when running with the opposition muzzled, his gangs out in the streets. This is not real democracy.

Lula: We have to respect the local cultures of each country. The political traditions of each country. The political cultures of each country. Brazil has made a lot of investments in Venezuela and I believe that the US needs to get closer to Venezuela. Why so? Because I think that it would be beneficial to the US and to Venezuela.

Zakaria: How we would do that? [reminders of Chavez insults to the US follow]

Lula: [he goes on with a lot of bullshit totally irrelevant to the previous questions. Then there is a talk about generosity] With an economy the size of Brazil we have to make gestures of generosity to our neighbors because otherwise they will have the right to think that Brazil is an imperialist power, that the US is an imperialist power, because there is development in our countries and there is underdevelopment in their countries. I believe the results that we have managed to achieve are good ones, I would say for Brazil, for Latin America and for the rest of the world.

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How can we possibly put a good spin on this section of the interview? Even Zakaria looked surprised, and more than once. After all, the idiocies of Chavez are simply public knowledge and glossing over them would have actually been better for Lula than to try to skip the questions outright as he did.

So this is my story to try to make sense of this rather pathetic moment. Let's start with the salient points.

First, of course, Lula might have learned a lot in his career but not as much as he should have on Venezuela. His demeaning comment on Political Culture (repeated, incredibly, three times) simply tell us that all that he knows about Venezuela comes from Chavez. He might have received accurate reports form his foreign office but clearly, he has been very selective about what he chose to use. And pray, do tell us, when was it Venezuelan political culture to insult the opposition from a position where this one cannot reply to you? This is so offensive that I rather stop now on this part.

Second, there is that mercenary aspect to him: he cites the Brazilian investments as an excuse; which is not and excuse, otherwise we could excuse the US and many other countries of a few crimes because, well, you know, they invested. And this is made even worse when unprompted he excuses himself about Brazilian imperialistic tendencies. Truly Chavez brought the worse in Lula and made him blabber.

And third there are clear escape attempts at not replying at all to Zakaria questions. At some point Lula must have realized that he did not convince Zakaria, and perhaps not even himself. This last picture on the right is a witness about some strange brief pauses taken by Lula then, with shifty, impatient looks, images that we do not get from Lula at any other point in the interview.

I am not going to detail why Lula is so wrong because not only the abuses of Chavez are public knowledge, but this blog is a whole narrative of those abuses and to top it off, the CIDH has just published last Friday a lengthy report where Chavez electoral abuses are detailed, a report by the way that Zakaria did not need to make his statement (3). I rather speculate on what is going on with Lula.

First, Lula comes from the hard left that got educated to reality with time. That is why he had to run three times before he was finally elected. As such he might never have managed to reconcile fully his lefty militant heart to what he knows is the reality that has brought him success and keeps him high in polls. He knows he has betrayed some of his youth tenets but he is not going back because he is smart enough to understand that this way is the one that does bring some success.

As such Lula has always looked at Chavez as the kind of leader he might have wanted to be if he had a smaller country to rule and more means. Federal Brazil does not have the easy riches of Venezuela. Brazil is such a world in itself that a Chavez like clown is simply not possible anymore there (Qadros might have been the last specimen of the sort and Brazilians might have learned their lesson for good then). It is simple quite possible that Lula lives vicariously through Chavez the leftist experience he will never live himself, blinded enough by Chavez charisma and showmanship to overlook the fascist and military tendencies of Chavez that someone like Lula should know better have having suffered for the lengthy Brazilian military regime (other leftists that suffered repression are not fooled by Chavez, for example Chile's Bachelet or Uruguay Vasquez).

But as I have already written in this blog Brazil is an Imperialist country by tradition and perhaps even by vocation (Bandeirantes anyone?). Lula might try to pretend it is not but he fools no one. However we cannot blame him much on him applying imperialism on Venezuela: after all Chavez is serving to him the country on a silver platter and why would not Brazil industrialists benefit from the Venezuelan piñata? If there is one that should be judged harshly by history, and hopefully by judges, on this matter it is Chavez, not Lula who after all behaves as the president of a great country, serving his country interests before he serves his own ones (well, in general at least).

Still, after this interview it should be extremely clear to anyone that Lula has helped Chavez as much as he could, that he has been an active accomplice in the destruction of Venezuelan democracy. In fact we could go as far as to say that Lula has only disdain for the Venezuelan people and that he thinks that Chavez is actually a redeemer that got a bum rap and thus deserved his help. As such when history books will be written Lula will be pointed as having some Venezuelan blood on his hand because at no point we can show a Lula berating Chavez for his abuses, even in private (read again that part where he thinks he has been achieving great things in Latin America!). In fact we can even think of occasions where some of his comments were perceived as indirect criticism of Chavez only to see Lula a few days later backpedal fast and embrace Chavez again. And let's not forget that Lula visited Chavez at least twice in important electoral times endorsing him.

The funny thing for me here is that Venezuela and Brazil are probably the two countries closer ethnically in Latin America, with a similar racial make up and mix, a similar way to conceive of life. And yet Venezuela is fast becoming a failed state while Brazil is threatening to become a world power. In a way a take over of Venezuela by Brazil would not be such a bad thing, you know.... I wonder how much of that subconscious thinking might have operated in Brazilian ruling class as they contributed to the demise of Venezuela (they will put the blame on Lula but too many went along this complacency toward Venezuela). Meanwhile woe is us in Venezuela because while Chavez squandered our possibly last historical opportunity Colombia and Brazil grew in strength. In a post Chavez Venezuela Bogota and Brasilia will fight over taking Venezuela under their area of influence.

Remember, ten years from now, you read it here first.

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1) I get the CNN from London bureau, not the direct one from Atlanta, ask my Cable company why.... Fareed Zakaria GPS. Thanks to my new Direct TV decoder that allows me to record on command and examine such an interview in detail. I shall use it on Chavez in the future!

2) I do not have the transcript, what I quote is what I lifted from replaying the interview. Since Lula spoke in Portuguese, CNN gave us a simultaneous translation, with the risks that this implies on finer points.

3) Not on line yet, sorry. I guess it will come up Monday. CIDH = IACHR, by the way.

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The feeble Venezuelan markets

As a sign of how weak, feeble and fragile Venezuelan markets have become under Chavez and CADIVI do not miss these two posts by Miguel. You will learn how the shenanigans of a single guy basically killed for a few days half the currency exchange system of Venezuela swap market. We knew we were vulnerable but maybe it is worse than what we thought. Read this first and then this. Keep in mind that Miguel scooped the Venezuelan press and was picked up by big papers for their news. This has to be the biggest blogging coup in Venezuela so far.

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Lula tells Venezuelans how worhtless they are; Viña del Mar confirms it.

During the campaign for the eternal reelection of February 15 2009, at some event Lula declared that he was not keen on reelection but that if Venezuelan wanted it it was their right. Or something to that effect that people are free to chose what they want and that eternal reelection was not that bad. Heck k, even some people took that as a message that maybe Lula was considering getting access to a third term himself through some constitutional change.

Well, today there is a small ruckus in Venezuela press rooms as Lula this time in a more serious forum is stating point blank that more than two terms in office is simply bad for democracy, and we assume this would be true in Lula's mind in Brasilia, Washington, Harare or Caracas. Well, he said again that maybe Caracas was different but Brazil would be changing president even if Lula's ratings are above those of Chavez, that democracy was best served by true alternation. Do not be fooled by what he really meant even if he did not express it: Venezuelans are a stupid and silly people reelecting the same clown over and over while he keeps wrecking his country and giving juicy contracts to Brazilian companies. Lula could not possibly care less for Venezuelans.

You do not believe me? Read the roster of the "summit" being held in Chile, at Viña del Mar. A select group of progressive leaders is gathering to discuss ways to get out of the crisis that is besotting the world. Who is invited: Chile as the chair, the UK, Spain, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Norway with, hold tight, the US of A. They are going to attend the closing and summary of a think tank gathering for the previous days where intellectuals, politicians, economists, etc, associated with social democracy and democratic left gathered to offer proposals to the G20 summit coming soon.

As you can see it is a serious summit, with serious people, even if some of you might not agree with their ideas. And the meeting is the more serious that mickey mouse regimes not interested in dialogue, in global solutions or in real democracy offering real solutions for the people and not for their leaders, were not invited. So there was no Ecuador, or Bolivia or Nicaragua and best of all, no Chavez. In fact the Brazilian envoy said that other leftist regime ideas were to be respected which is a very diplomatic way to say "we need to work to solve the crisis and we have no time to put up with showmen coming over for temper tantrums; learn to behave and next time we might respect you enough to invite you over".

We, Venezuelans are a weak and miserable people and we are treated just as we deserve. We are the laughing stock of the world and our stupid leader still thinks that smiles when he places a purchase order are actual smiles of political support.

-The end-

Me likes Hillary

When I lived in the US linked to Academia, I cannot tell you how many times I got upset by people saying things that they should have known much better than saying. What was one of my biggest pet peeves was a line like "these nasty Colombians, why do they send us so much drug?". I must have defended Colombia dozens of times, on occasion as the perpetrator of the inanity passed a joint around. And in Academic party time, which made the whole thing inexcusable on account of ignorance. Well, one would think of, no?

Thus when I read these words from Secretary Hillary Clinton on her arrival in Mexico I could not but be elated:

“Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade”
“Our inability to prevent weapons from being illegally smuggled across the border to arm these criminals causes the deaths of police officers, soldiers and civilians.”

Some of you might remember I was a Hillary supporter at first (well, I hinted at it, this is not a US themed blog). Well, that was a reason why. I liked her school marm attitude on some things and her ability to say such truisms, to address some white elephants in US society. OK, she also speaks too much on other things and she might not be too scrupulous on her personal dealings, but she is a politician for crissake!

She certainly is not saying such things without Obama's consent, I am sure. But it is quite gratifying for me to see that this new administration is at least getting a few things right (at least of those things that do matter to me and the future of Latin America).

Is it not ironic that we had to wait for a team accused of commie tendencies to finally acknowledge that drug trade is as extreme a capitalist venture as they come? That drug trade is fueled like nothing else by the laws of supply and demand? The US can do all the reeducation and detox programs, all the drug enforcement agencies it want, bombing all the poppy fields in the world, as long as it does not start punishing more effectively the consumer of drugs these measures will not work. Period.

Meanwhile in Venezuela just this week we learn that 325 kilos of cocaine have been caught in Margarita island. Imagine that, the supply of that poor island for years probably! And even though Venezuela is at best a reluctant collaborator in fighting drug trafficking it has the chutzpah to vaunt its prowess.... There was a time when the only contraband was booze, and then it was made legal. Now apparently Chavez limitations on booze traffic in Margarita have been replaced by drug traffic. Progress! Well, for someone's wallet anyway.


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Has anyone heard of the Carter Center lately?

I thought of the Carter Center as I read this AP story about the CIA exposing its findings on electronic electoral fraud. I am not interested in revisiting again that story, nor in wondering why if the CIA knew such information they are/were not doing more about it (other countries are mentioned by the way). No, I am wondering what the Carter Center is up these days, whether it recovered some of its former prestige (in Venezuela it has stopped coming up in conversations completely except for the occasional curse) and whether on occasion they feel at least a little bit bad about having helped considerably the establishment of a particularly scruple free military regime.

But I do not think I should worry much about the Carter Center having afterthoughts or regrets. They would be the last one on that matter since even Cesar Gaviria has acknowledged publicly that democracy is problematicin Venezuela, nowhere else than at the latest IAP assembly. Interestingly in that assembly Venevision, property of Jimmy Carter good friend Cisneros, was duly questioned from having benefited from the misfortunes of its commercial competition and having caved fully to the Chavez line. The amazing thing at that assembly is that Venevision had the nerve to defend its untenable position, which of course made its case even worse and lost them any little bit of respect they might have left in that group. But the sad truth is that Venevision is the network watched only by chavistas who cannot stomach anymore VTV or ViVe, and those poor souls that cannot afford cable, or do not dispose of it in their area. Amusingly that branch of the Cisneros family is now a social pariah in Venezuela, who today prefers wisely to seek (buy?) friends in the US or elsewhere. Though I suppose Carter might still come here to fish for pavon in Apure courtesy of Cisneros who he helped talk to Chavez directly. Now that I think of it I do not recall Carter having tried to have Chavez talk to anyone else opposing him in Venezuela. He has no more friends worth his efforts I suppose.

Oh! and let's not forget about those who the Carter Center encouraged to seek an agreement with the government to hold the now officially fraudulent referendum of 2004. One is dead, one is in exile, one has lost a large chunk of its properties in Venezuela, and the other ones are faring hardly better. There again I do not recall the Carter Center having protested abuses committed against them.

But it would be unfair to only blame the Carter Center (though it has a commanding share in the business of destroying Venezuela's democracy). A few days ago in Salvador the ruling ARENA lost to the Farabundo guerrilla front.

Besides the fact that this opens the distinct possibility of a renewal of bloody conflict if Funes is unable to control his reconverted guerrilla (or in waiting?) I have not a single tear for ARENA. The outgoing president, Saca, pledged that its country would watch closely that Vivas and Forero would get a fair trial in Venezuela when they refused to grant them political asylum. It has been now three years of one of the worst travesty of justice that we were given to witness in Venezuela, with Salvador remaining awfully discrete as to their human rights commitment. When you think of it, very ARENA, is it not? No wonder people voted them out at long last. The only thing ahead for these two political prisoners might be a final arranged verdict around April 11 where Chavez rewriting Venezuelan history will make sure that they bear the guilt of all the crimes that he provoked himself that day in 2002.

I do not think that the Carter Center is going to lose any sleep over that. They might actually hope to be included in the great epic that Chavez is imagining for our official story. But guess what? That ingrate also seems to have forgotten Jennifer McCoy and her combo, preferring to hang out with Sean Penn and Oliver Stone.

I think the time is right to write the history of these enablers that allowed the madness of Chavez to take over Venezuela and destroy it, you know, before the blood that seems to be promised to us starts running. Thus we will know before hand who to put the blame on when we will need to leave Venezuela for our lives, if that fateful day ever comes.

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My 2009 wallet

I was wondering about yesterday's Chavez "acto fallido" wondering what it means for my meager personal finances.

The sales tax increase I can absorb. After all I have purchased all of my big ticket expenses, including a small LCD TV.

The rest is more complex. The only thing we can retain from Chavez speech is that no serious spending cuts will be done and borrowing will increase further to compensate the fall of oil prices. The implication is very simple: Chavez realizing that a two year stint with inflation above 30% has not stopped him from winning last February vote has decided that as long as he manages to feed his base he can still win further elections (or cheat without consequences, same difference). When we think of it a little bit more, the real economic announcement was not Saturday: it "escaped" Chavez two days before when he mused about "la bola de billetes" that the private banking had in forced reserve at the Central Bank. That is, Chavez is simply getting ready to take over the banking system, or at least some of its cash.

It is not necessarily that Chavez does not understand why the banking system must retain some of its cash in the Central Bank to sustain the confidence of its clients, it is that he needs money and ideologically banks are, well, inherently against any XXI century communism, oops, sorry, socialism! By intervening further the deposits of the Central Bank Chavez by now knows very well that he will push inflation to very dangerous levels. But he also knows that banks will become very dependent on the government for their survival and will thus be for all practical purposes nationalized. That is, in case of a run on Banesco, to name one bank, this one will have to call Miraflores instead of relying on its now compromised BCV reserves.

I think at this point the government does not know exactly how to go about this latest madness, but after yesterday non-announcement we know that they are up to something with our savings and working money. It might be an outright nationalization without compensation (what seems to be happening with Spanish held Banco de Venezuela). It could be a "corralito" like in Argentina. It could even be at some point the end of the convertibility of the Bolivar, as limited as that one is today, making thus any saving you have pretty much worthless, as well as your home, your business and the rest. After all Cuba has been operating for decades without a real currency and what Chavez has been trying to do at local level with exchange coupons in lieu of currency is telling of the mentality in the higher echelons of his pseudo-administration.

One thing is clear: Chavez is gambling on a return of high oil prices sooner than later. Thus he is not afraid of hitting the banks even if only partially, assuming that the return of better days will minimize the damage he will bring to the banking system. Of course, once he gets the taste of this new drug there is no way to stop him, just as he did with the famous currency reserves of the BCV ("el millardito" only, remember?)

What should I do with my meager income? Well, time to buy dollars at any price and to find ways to hide them under some rock. We are back to the time of the "morocotas". Some progress this robolution brought us!

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Morocotas: nickname of the 20 USD gold dollar coin which served of savings in Venezuela before banks existed outside of Caracas. The lore is that there are little stashes of these gold coins in hiding as their owners perished during some of the civil wars that we suffered util Gomez came. Any Venezuelan restoring a very old home or farm secretely thinks for at least a second that a rotten leather purse will appear inside a crumbling wall.....

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Chavez's economic fart

Thus we have it, after weeks of expectation (not from me anyway) Chavez announced an economic package that is pretty much worth nothing, just as I guessed waiting for sleep to come last night. Heck, I was so little concerned that I went around my normal Saturday activities and only read tonight at 9 PM on El Universal web pages the details. The first overview shows that Chavez balked at making necessary adjustments and he just accepted a minimum package that he hopes will tidy him up to the end of the year. In other words he counts on the few savings left and some minimal spending cuts to allow him to wait for an oil price increase that he hopes will come by the end of he year. If I were him I would pray to Saint Barak in heavens to make sure he intercedes with God almighty to help his namesake on earth.

Let's see the only 5 items worth noting, and sometimes for their stupidity, 5 items that illustrate quite well the failure of chavenomics and his arrogance in refusing to face the consequences.

Sales tax up by 3%, to 12%
Main victims- Middle class folks. The rich, bolibourgeois or old money, really do not care: they can afford it, and they shop in Miami anyway. The poor can barely afford food where there is no sales tax.
Effect-not enough new income as long as gas and electricity prices do not go up. However the negative political effect exists in all sectors.
What it really means- the key here is to remember that Chavez dropped the sales tax as a way to fight inflation. With a 30% + last year it obviously failed dramatically. So, hoping that people have short memory he raises it again. But at the same time he admits that he is unable to control inflation and so decides to empty our pockets to sustain his rule.

Minimum wage up by 20%
Main victims- The working poor, and in particular the state employees. Many business (mine among others) were already giving increases of up to 20% so this will not affect them.
Effect-Until now the government had tried to parallel minimum wage increases with official inflation. But now it accepts that there will be an official decrease in purchasing power of the lower economic sectors of at least 10% from last year. There will be consequences, the more so if inflation cannot get below 30% this year.
What it really means- The government has a huge amount of people working at or close minimum wage status (misiones and administration). By increasing that wage below the inflation rate it acknowledges that it does not have the money to pay them, and also implies that higher wages will not be increased.

Review of the 2009 budget and ONLY a 6.7% decrease
Main victims- The opposition governors and mayors and the people they administrate. By Venezuelan law a portion of regular income must go to the states. By reducing the budget and taking a barrel price of 40 instead of 60 Chavez will be able to control ALL income that he gets above 40 USD without having to share it with, say, Ledezma.
Effect- Almost irrelevant as there is an increase in public debt also announced.
What it really means- Naively the government hopes that cutting off higher wages in the public sectors and toning down propaganda expenses will be enough to reach that goal. Corruption by itself will make sure this fails.

No devaluation for the time being
Main victims- All of us. People that import necessary items (spare parts, equipment investment, raw material).
Effect- The only way for the government to sustain the present exchange rate is not to give fixed rate CADIVI dollars. Thus importers are forced to the parallel market which is already almost three times as high as the official currency value. The result is simply more fuel for inflation as people need to run their cars, need to eat imported food, need to clothe themselves, etc...
What it really means- The government really does not know what to do, does not understand the implications of the world crisis, is unable to clean up its act. It means that Giordani is indeed again in charge, more senile than ever. It also means that the longer the adjustment is postponed the more painful it will be.

No gas price increase for the time being
Main victims- The environment, the budget which has to sustain the subsidy.
Effect- Terrible! When the other measures are implemented, if they are, this single item will be even more glaring as the obnoxious, scandalous, irresponsible subsidy that the government gives.
What it really means- Chavez is scared shitless. The one single measure that would have made sense, that would have sent a positive signal that the country is finally going to get managed responsibly was not taken, not even partially. If there was one NO-decision that would show how politically weak Chavez really is, how clay-like his feet are, it was that one. With that decision Chavez shows that once again he is putting all his eggs in a significant oil price increase before the end of the year.


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Chavez's "paquetazo"

As I am ready to go to bead I think it is fair to mention that tomorrow we are supposed to hear of the economic crisis package that Venezuela will finally chose to adopt, way behind most of the world, and way, way behind serious countries. Of course, all the postponement by chavismo due to its fanciful daydreaming of oil prices climbing back up fast, due to the need to make sure the beloved reader can be president for life, due to too many years of politically successful populism, have resulted in measures that will be tougher than what could have already been done last fall, including, gasp, the first price increase in gas in ten years. Yeah, that is right, it is possible that Chavez might do the very same thing that he used to justify his coup in 1992: the drastic economic measures that affected so much the people of Venezuela and resulted in the "caracazo" (they did not, really, but revolutionary lore is too time consuming to dissect in this post).

But Chavez will not do it. In fact after today massive rally in Maracaibo to support Rosales, where among other thing the opposition decided to put the blame squarely on Chavez, he might postpone for yet a few more days the announcement. But let's assume that tomorrow indeed he will try to counter Rosales hit of today. He will probably tone down whatever "package" he has in mind and will dedicate most of his speech to insult Rosales and the opposition. How will that help the country I need not insult your intelligence with it.

In fact the government tonight is for sure feverishly working on how to distance itself as much as possible from the "paquetazo" image, that the Venezuela political body has internalized since 1989. It is also trying with equal desperation ways on how to put the blame of the measures on the opposition. That this one has had no say whatsoever on the country polices since at least 2004 is no obstacle for chavismo. However I suspect that the folks that he managed to fool once again a month ago might not be so lenient this time around. After all how can Lorenzo Mendoza be accused of the economic crisis when Chavez is threatening to take away his business. I mean, you really need to be weak minded to buy the idea that a guy about to lose all and perhaps even face jail was able to direct Venezuelan policies for the last 5 years. Even more, "harina P.A.N." has not been missing since 2004, and remained affordable. This might not be true anymore AFTER Chavez implements his "paquetazo".

So, what should this "paquetazo" include? As far as I am concerned it should include the following measures, some applicable maybe progressively, but all completed by the end of the year.

devaluation from 2.15 to the USD to at least 3
increase in V.A.T. to 15% for many items
income tax up (but not business income)
multiplying gas price by 10 to get back to its price level of 1998
duplication of the price of electricity, cooking gas and water

and this ONLY with the hope to retain enough resources to keep financing the social programs misiones!

In addition just to allow for the production to restart on more solid bases and to decrease significantly our dependence on food importations you need to at least:

improve CADIVI hard currency access to all agricultural activities
end price control on at least some items to make sure that at least some sectors of the food chain are covered (free rice while continuing control on corn, for example)
stop land seizure and invasion, or at the very least guarantee property as long as specific items are grown
improve safety and labor relations in the country side
limit food importations as much as possible, and do them at prices reflecting the country's production costs, that is, no subsidy on imported feedstuffs!

and I am not touching other area of production in Venezuela: I just try to imagine what it would take to keep at least "essential" programs working and stopping the growth on our dependency on food imports.

And what we might get? Forget about the second list, that would mean that Chavez renounces his demented agricultural policies. Not going to happen. On the first list you might as well cross the devaluation. Gas price hike would be a meager 2-3 fold. Taxes will be increased across the board, including a tax on business values just as these might get unable to pay it due to the recession coming. Maybe some agencies would be restructured with people becoming jobless to make some limited savings. Plus a collection of small showy measures that even put together will not amount to much.

The result? Nothing will be solved; however the measures will be enough to feed the inflation pump and soon enough any temporal relief felt by the state will be annulled, not to mention an aggravation of the recession. And that will be at best because if Chavez resorts to his announcement yesterday that he might grab the bank reserves at the Central Bank we could even end up having bank runs as people get scared for their hard earned money. The recession and inflation that would follow that would be disastrous.

But all in all it does not matter: I think that Chavez waited for too long and judging by the increasing workers protest he is facing a very hot summer.


-The end-

There might be an opposition after all

[updated]

Well, I bet Chavez is even more surprised than me tonight. Yesterday Rosales was accused of corruption. Within twenty four hours Rosales called for a huge, and I mean HUGE, popular rally in Maracaibo, of the type of rallies that even with a gadzillion of buses Chavez today would be unable to call for in 24 hours. And, hold tight, all the who'swho of the current elected opposition leadership is taking turn on stage to defend Rosales and declare chavismo corrupt. They are all there, from Salas Feo to Carlos Ocariz, from Miryam do Nascimento to Gerardo Blyde. Well, I have not seen the one from Margarita but you know, even if you want to go you might not always be able to do so. If Chavez did want to strengthen the leadership of the opposition and its unity around Rosales he could not have done better....

It is very noteworthy that all speakers are striking the right note, defending Rosales but spending more time in attacking Chavez recent policies, and harshly.

A law revoking referendum in the near future?

update: it was really one of the most successful opposition rallies I have seen. The psychological image of all of the opposition leadership unified in its criticism of Chavez abuses, with words much stronger than what we are used to see will have an impact. Rosales spoke at the end and even accused the Zulia representatives of betrayal to their own home state. A recall election on the National Assembly in the works? Why not? Even removing a couple of dozens seats only would have a tremendous psychological impact.

Whatever honeymoon Chavez thought he would be benefiting from his February 15 result, it died this week.

Madre mía, si el gobierno
no ayuda al pueblo zuliano,
tendréis que meter la mano
y mandarlo pa'l infierno.

-The end-

Petkoff on Rosales

For those who doubt what is the real reason to put to jail Rosales there is the mini editorial of Petkoff (under his pen name Simon Boccanegra). I have no time to translate it right now, but for those who can read Spanish it is essential and immediate read. If you need the English version come back in a few hours or use the translate tool of Google.

¡Todos con Manuel Rosales!

Chacumbele ha dado un paso más en el camino del hostigamiento permanente a que ha sometido a Manuel Rosales.

Como era de esperar (porque lo contrario era impensable), la Fiscalía acusa a Manuel y pide al tribunal orden de prisión preventiva para el alcalde de Maracaibo. Misión cumplida, pues.

La canallada, jurídicamente hablando, es insostenible. Pero eso es lo de menos para Chacumbele. Para atropellar no necesita coartadas jurídicas, le basta con su voluntad. Los cagatintas que lo acompañan ya se encargarán de fabricar los "expedientes".

¿Qué le cobran a Manuel? ¿Su eficiencia como mandatario? A los ojos de Chacumbele eso sería parte de su "delito". Haber sido un gobernador y alcalde eficiente y honrado en medio del hatajo de incompetentes y corruptos que son buena parte de los gobernadores y alcaldes del oficialismo. Le cobran también su coraje y su indesmayable brega por impedir que sobre Venezuela caiga la losa sepulcral de la dictadura. Sin embargo, más allá de las razones personales que puede tener un alma rencorosa y mediocre para meter preso a Rosales, existe un problema político de gran calado. El ataque a éste es parte del propósito chacumbeliano de anular a las gobernaciones y alcaldías como centros de acción e iniciativa política y administrativa distintos al poder central. Y no sólo a las que están en manos de mandatarios democráticos -aunque estos constituyen su primer objetivo, por razones obvias-, sino a TODAS. Ya las focas le dieron la ley para arrebatarles funciones y dentro de pocos días tendrá la ley que le permitirá designar gauleiters sobre los gobernadores. ¿De qué hablamos? La figura de las "autoridades regionales" o "vicepresidentes" no la inventa Chacumbele. La patente es de Adolfo Hitler, quien, en su época, con el mismo objetivo que Chacumbele, es decir anular a los gobiernos elegidos en las provincias alemanas, designó estos funcionarios, denominados gauleiters, es decir, "jefes de región", sobrepuestos a los gobiernos elegidos por los pueblos de cada land o provincia. La agresión a Manuel Rosales nos concierne a todos porque es una agresión a los mas de cinco millones de venezolanos que votaron NO y también, muy probablemente, a quienes dentro del chavismo muestran preocupación por el rumbo de colisión que ha impuesto el presidente a su gobierno. ¡Manuel Rosales somos todos!

P.S.: By the way, a reader a few days ago complained of my facile comparison with Germany 1933. Well, if now Petkoff does an even more advanced comparison will this reader complain to Petkoff? In other words, it is time that a few in the opposition wake up and smell the coffee.

-The end-

Rosales to go to jail, under Chavez orders

What was expected finally happened today: a second tier lousy state prosecutor asked for Maracaibo's mayor indictment on corruption charges. Ex Zulia governor, ex-presidential candidate and now Maracaibo mayor Rosales had it coming: Chavez demanded jail for him during the last regional election campaign. Rosales in turn asked then for jail for Di Martino, ex mayor of Maracaibo. No news about how the investigation on Di Martino is proceeding. Nobody is expecting him to be indicted anytime soon in spite of all evidence accumulating against him. But we are pretty sure that Rosales is in deep trouble because these type of orders from Chavez are always followed through.

What is important here is not the news. The timing has been chosen because Chavez needs people to discuss something else than inflation, crime, the Guyana workers nearing a general strike situation, the PDVSA suppliers that are not being paid, etc, etc...

What is not important here is whether Rosales is a corrupt public servant. For all that I know he might have dipped in the public coffers. However there is one thing that I am willing to bet my life on it: Rosales might have stolen public monies but I am absolutely sure that Diosdado Cabello or the Chavez family have stolen more, much more than Rosales could. Why I am so willing to bet my life on it? Because Rosales was closely monitored at all times during his rule whereas none ever could monitor Diosdado Cabello in Miranda or the Chavez family in Caracas, or Miraflores for that matter. Try as a simple citizen to get info on these guys and tell me how far you will go.

What is not important here is whether Rosales will be denied to go on trial as a free citizen. The important thing to note here is that even notable chavistas, pursed for corruption such as my own ex-governor of Yaracuy, Gimenez, are far from reaching the trial status and they are freely walking the streets while Rosales could be arrested as early as tomorrow. As far as I know the Gimenez corruption crimes listed at the time by the High Court president herself sounded way worse than what Rosales is supposed to have done. Other names of chavista walking the street free are Velazquez Alvaray or Manuitt to name two famous ones spectacularly discarded.

To close this I will make a precise comment: if people think that getting rid of Rosales is after all no big deal, that perhaps the opposition could benefit from having less leaders and perhaps become somewhat more effective, that any corrupt public servant unmasked is always a good thing, well, they are thinking wrong. What is at stake here is allowing Chavez to decide who will be permitted to become his opposition. The way the different opposition leaders respond to an eventual jail for Rosales will be crucial for their future, and the future of the country. Rosales is not going to jail because he stole money: he is going to jail because he beat Chavez last November. If you fail to understand that then you understand nothing about Venezuela.

-The end-

Carmona versus Chavez

Since February 15 a new wave of abuses from the executive power of Venezuela has come to castigate us who did not vote for the man (and arguably a large amount of those who voted fro Chavez as the workers of, say, CVG, will let you know if you ask them).

Discussing things such as the expropriation of Hato Caroni or the rice processing plants is really irrelevant for this blogger: he discussed such similar events extensively since the 2004 take over of Hato Piñero or CANTV in 2006, to name two of such events. If people then did not understand what this meant for the country, what else could I say today to convince them that I have not already discussed? That we cannot feed ourselves or that Internet is increasingly failing speak by themselves.


No, what I would like to share is the parallel between the Carmona coup of April 12 and what Chavez has been doing since April 13 2002. Carmona wanted an instant power grab that supposedly would have lasted 6 months. For those who forget conveniently certain facts, in his infamous decree (who never made it to the official journal of Venezuela, an important legal remark) he said that he could not run in the general eelction to be called by April 2003. True, we will never know whether Carmona would have kept his word but we know for sure how Chavez is not keeping his multiple words.

Since April 2002 Chavez has been slowly but surely concentrating all power in his hands. Fraud has been his great ally as well as a very incompetent opposition. What Carmona wanted in 2002, Chavez has obtained it, and more, since those days. Venezuela is today much less democratic than what a Carmona 6 months interim would have probably been. Again, we will never know that for sure but we know today that Chavez will make sure that he will never lose power through pacific means. Those who claim the contrary are either woefully uninformed, are propaganda agents or are cashing in at the Miraflores cash window.

Chavez has been clever though. Instead of dissolving the National Assembly like Carmona did, he made it irrelevant. Instead of removing the governors and mayors elected by the people, he made them irrelevant. Instead of firing the High Court, he changed the law, removed some undesirable judges and drowned the other ones by packing the new court. Instead of taking over VTV, he closed RCTV outright and covered the country with an overwhelming net of propaganda audiovisual waves, while neutering most of the remaining private media. And more such comparisons. However there is something that Chavez did and that Carmona did not contemplate: Carmona would have worked with the 2002 current economic system until a new government dealt with the necessary reforms whereas Chavez destroyed it without replacing it with any viable alternative. What Chavez gave us was the most corrupt regime in our rich corrupt history where only those close, very close to the higher echelons of government can operate freely. Though with the end of high oil prices it is quite possible that these ones will also be robbed of their "new" possessions as Chavez crass populism needs to keep "giving".

All in all what Chavez has done since 2002 is much worse than what Carmona intended to do. As April looms with its "cada 11 tiene su 13", it is useful to remember these details, that the real coupmonger since 1992 has been Chavez and that he has never stopped since then. He just went more slowly about it. In this regard Carmona was just an idiotic amateur whose mistakes are paid dearly.

-The end-

Sunday's hypocrites: Magglio and Chavez

[Updated]

I know, I know, I should be writing about more important things such as the latest land seizures, the harbors wars, Stanford fraud, a Russian bomber base in Venezuela and what not, but I prefer to discuss the latest ridicule because it is, in my opinion, the most important event of this week: baseball Venezuelan star Magglio Ordoñez was booed at the Baseball world cup in Miami by a crowd consisting mostly of Venezuelans. Today Chavez started his Alo Presidente lambasting Miami Venezuelans inexcusably rooting for the enemy. Inasmuch as what happened in Miami is distasteful, there is only one person to blame here and it is Chavez. Not the fans, not Magglio: Chavez and Chavez alone from having created the climate of hate that is leading us inexorably to a violent exit.

True, politics should never be mixed with sports and you should always root for your home team when this one is playing. Or at least stay quiet. But what happened in Miami is much, much more than just a disgruntled anti Chavez fan base.

First, Magglio Ordoñez made an add in favor of the SI in the February 15 referendum. He did not need to do that, and he should have stayed away from it. It is not the same thing to say in an interview that you support Chavez, just between the question about your family and the one about your latest training methods. It is another thing when you actually make a specific pitch for the man.

True, athletes deserve to have a political opinion, but if they pretend to represent all of their country they should abstain to make political statements, or if they must allude to their preferences do so in a casual way at most. Pushing this line of argument, I could go as far as seeing Magglio in a large group of people featuring their support for Chavez in 2006, but not for the type of election that we held last February where the message proposed was that a group in the country was trying to find ways to impose Chavez forever to the other group. Taking position in such a highly polarized context can only bring you trouble, no matter which side wins.

This being said, we must agree that Magglio has no excuse. When he states that he is allowed to express himself and that he is not hurting anyone, he is either a fool whose dozens of millions earned in the MLB have cut him from the Venezuelan reality, or he is a liar. Perhaps another type of athlete, one from those sports that never get much financial support, could be excused from publicly supporting Chavez. After all, how much money can ever do a TaeKwonDo player compared to the millions already made by Magglio and those he still shall pocket? When you are the image of a major MLB star in the US you owe it to all Venezuelans to be discrete on politics as all the other MLB stars, even bigger than Magglio, do. Magglio is simply an interested idiot.

But he is also a victim because he has left himself get trapped into Chavez Machiavellian world. And he is a dangerous victim too because he forced the team to get out fast to his defense least they lose the tournament after a fit of demoralization or least Chavez exacts revenge on them at home from something that they could not help. Not all of them have the comfortable millions in the bank that allow Magglio to be an airhead.

When Chavez complains about the Miami exiles (and many Venezuelans who flew in for the occasion) playing politics with Magglio he should be ashamed because he is the one who introduced politics to Venezuelan sports. Or has he forgotten all the photo op he sought for the Beijing Olympics? Or has he forgotten how he used to America Soccer cup to promote himself? Anything that Chavez touches becomes corrupt and those that allow Chavez to reach them become corrupted too in a XXI century Faustian bargain. As such Magglio can almost be pitied as a a victim. But he still remains and idiot and probably an interested liar.

Chavez is the biggest hypocrite, and his followers along. After all, did they not try to give hell to Alejandro Sanz when he tried to come to Venezuela for a concert a while back. Now for all practical purposes he is not allowed in the country (as many writers, journalists and the like, by the way, including Lech Walesa). Why those crocodile tears about Magglio being booed in Miami? Because it risks to impair the chances of Venezuela to win the title and thus deprive Chavez of another ego bloated moment?

"I voted for Chavez and all I got was this divided country" is the kind of t-shirts they could start making. Of all my Venezuelan sports memories I cannot recall a situation like the Magglio one yesterday. This is the only true achievement of Chavez in ten years, to divide us into a 54 and a 46% blocks that are about ready to kill each other, or at least throw empty bottles at each other. Socialism my ass, plain fascism is what this is. Because let's not forget that if Chavez inner fascist is plainly revealing itself these days, it also feeds on the other side becoming fascist and acting on it as they did in Miami. The honorable way out of this is for Magglio to swallow his pride and make a communique where he repeats that he is pro Chavez but admits that it was a error from his part to act on it, and apologizes for it. But then again he probably knows what Chavez would do to him if he were to atone.

This Miami moment is so illustrative of our predicament that the mind reels.

To close this I must also address something rather unpleasant: why are there so many Venezuelans in Miami? Why has this group increased so much under Chavez? True, they might have been contaminated with some of the extremism of some of the Cuban exile, but still, that does not detract from the reasons they went to Miami: political prosecution, financial problems, lack of opportunities at home, soaring crime in Venezuela, and what not... All of these things might or might not be attributed to Chavez but the aggravation of everyone of them is to be laid without a doubt at the feet of Chavez. But then again, like Castro had, he also wants his radical Miami exile.

Update: in a moment of idleness I looked for more info on Magglio Ordoñez. Quickly I found clear evidence that 1) he is an ignorant idiot and 2) that he probably is doing "business" with the revolution (namely the gang in Anzoategui; maybe he wants to become governor when he retires of MLB?). This picture at voting time says it all, lamé and rhinestone mass murderer included. Yet another great moment in bad taste.

-The end-

Weil in color, to make sure you understand clearly the Chavez takeover

Tal Cual cartoonist Weil rarely uses color. But today he makes an exception to illustrate clearly what the recent decisions of Chavez mean. In short: Chavez did not like the electoral results of November 2008 so he is changing the laws to remove opposition officials competences and putting above them some guy that will be appointed by Chavez himself, the umpire form hell. I recall fondly the stupid arguments of professional PSF stating that Chavez was such a democrat because he subjected himself to so many elections. That is, until he started losing them.



-The end-

The first direct consequence of the eternal reelection referendum

It was not long until the legal consequences of stupidly voting for Chavez in February came to surface. Wednesday the rubber stamp national assembly removed a big chunk of competences from mayors and governors, leaving them with very little to do. Why that? Two basic reasons.

In a system where the same guy can run again and again it is ESSENTIAL that all seems to flow from his government. So, in preparation of 2011 election (one is never too ready for those things) Chavez had his assembly vote on removal from local officials of the big bucks thing: public transportation through airports, ports and road building and maintenance. This way it does not matter if a governor is chavista on the rise (Henri Falcon) or opposition, any visible public work project will be seen as a grant of Chavez to the area. Chavez will be able to inaugurate alone any single mile of road he wants to open, without anyone else taking any itsy bit of credit.

Expect more of the sort. Indeed, the cheating for the 2011 election has started by making sure that nobody can have any administrative achievement to show for an electoral platform. As such people such as infamous and famously corrupt Diosdado Cabello are doing their utmost to sabotage even small initiatives such as creative ways to deal with the nightmarish traffic of Caracas, when as a governor of Miranda in 4 years Cabello did nothing. And as a minister before that time he did even less except having him and is family get immensely rich.

Which leads us to the second reason. Killing decentralization simply focuses all corruption to Caracas. Already for many permits I have to go personally to Caracas, EVEN THOUGH our company does have an office in Caracas.

For certain things, it does not matter where in the country you live, you must go to a central office which at best is located in Barquisimeto (not even Valencia where the opposition risks too much to take office at any given time). But going to Barquisimeto is not enough for me becasue Barquisimeto will only approve AFTER Caracas does anyway. Let's say that when you have to go to Barquisimeto you waste one day instead of the two you would waste going to Caracas. I can tell you of an inspection for a certain process that I am waiting for since 2007 has not been approved from Caracas yet even though the personnel that would do that inspection is located close by. I can tell you that the company safety delegates must go personally every month to Barquisimeto to submit their report as even a FedEx posted and signed by them will not do. Each time of course the company has to pay for the day and all the travel expenses. And if these people were to suffer an accident in the road becasue the government forces them to do the trip, the company will have to pay for everything anyway.

What is the consequences of all of this administrative mess? That you will have to resort to some Caracas agents which will charge you fabulous sums for permits that by law would cost nothing or very little. And you will have to accept their business offer becasue otherwise you will waste so much money and time traveling several times to Caracas that, come to think of it, hiring a "gestor" will simply not look that expensive after all. Of course, once you yield to these people they start charging more and more, fees that they split with Caracas bureaucrats.

But in a way I love it: all these asshole chavista who voted SI one month ago and who are protesting already more and more everyday as Chavez is tightening the economic screws now will be told that they need to go to Caracas to be heard. I want to see how they are going to manage it without the free bus rides they used to get to go and support Chavez at Bolivar avenue. Good for them!!! Let them eat red icing cake!

-The end-

Crime getting everyday more assertive in Venezuela

[UPDATED]
While Chavez makes sure that everyday more people join the unemployment lines, crime is becoming bolder and bolder, I suppose to make sure it accommodates the new arrivals that will join the crime wave, raising the competition of this vibrant sector of Venezuelan economy. A few minutes ago I was informed that a charity group in Caracas (foreign nationals and their friends, no further details will be revealed right now) was held hostage for ransom as one of the guest was kidnapped at the doors of the event.

Namely, as people gathered, one of the late comers arriving alone was caught off the street and a message was sent to the attendance that the criminals requested 50.000 BsF cash to release him unharmed. People had to hit their wallet and between all of then they managed to raise 13.000. You know, people go to charity events with their check books, not a wallet full of cash, and even less in Venezuela.... Note that the 50.000 number was reasonably realistic when you consider that the attendance managed to raise 13.000 in cash (6.000 USD in value at the official exchange rate). Maybe if they had asked for jewelry and watches?

I do not know yet if the victim has been released and if the ransom was paid and how. But do those details really matter at this point for the objectives of this blog, even though we should all feel sorry for the victim? The salient fact here is the level of organization of crime in Venezuela. The guys knew of the event in advance, had an estimate of how much they could get out, waited long enough to get a latecomer, had a way to communicate with the attendance, etc...

Is the government doing anything? Of course not. These days in fact Chavez is threatening state workers who protest with reprisals, accusing them of bourgeois tendency and all sot of insults that today private enterprises bosses would never think to use, and even less dare to use against their employees. As the economy keeps sinking and as the bloated state bureaucracy will need to be trimmed and as the private sector will be unable to absorb this unemployed crowd, assuming it can at least keep the workers currently working, I let you imagine what will be the crime level in a year from know, and its increasing sophistication.

I just hope that the silly PSF visiting Venezuela get properly mugged, you know, in solidarity with the Venezuelan people.

Update: I got more details. It was not 50.000 they were asking, it was 500.000, immediately and in cash. That is, the family had to raise more than 200.000 USD in cash. Obviously they could not. They are a group of mid level professional people who own little more than their home and some modest savings. The mother of the victim is a retired teacher and her second husband a small shop owner (I have know them both for decades).

All parents and friends went to ATM machines, carrying not only their ATM card but their VISA and MC for any cash advance they could come up with. Around midnight they had come up with 115.000 BsF, about 50.000 USD. The thugs relented and accepted that amount. They demanded that the wife of the victim came alone to a specific spot on Caracas main highway where she surrendered the loot. She was allowed to go safely and shortly after her husband was released. He claims he was treated well, and that for the way his captors behaved they were a highly organized and professional group that were used to this type of actions.

As far as I know they did not even bother calling the police, not to mention that had they called the police they should have surrendered the whole operation to them and risk seeing all of their assets frozen to make sure that they could not pay anything as ransom. Considering the disquieting rumors and facts that circulate everyday more and more, there would be a significant participation of police force in this new kidnapping mafias; and thus even less trust from the victims as to the police readiness and willingness to solve the crime. The recent kidnapping of banker Garcia Velutini is highly suspect on this regard. From personal experience when I have been robbed at home or at work I know that calling the police is totally useless, the only purpose to do so is to have an official report for insurance claims. You never recover your property.

-The end-

Chavez really, really wants to control Caracas

Poor Chavez, he really has a problem! The mean people did not vote for his candidate for Caracas mayor at large. And the new one, Ledezma, is showing to the world all the corruption and mismanagement that existed before he won the election last November. Of course, this is totally unacceptable. So, before arresting poor Ledezma, or even shooting him, there is a clever way to neutralize him: a new law that will put above Ledezma and all the local mayors of Caracas a Chavez appointed jerk that will have more power than the elected officials. Democracy? What democracy? Just vote for Chavez and he names everyone else and voila!

I love it when I call the 54% of people who voted SI an undemocratic crowd and I get such a fabulous and quick confirmation! If we were a democratic country chavistas and anti chavistas alike should go to the streets of Caracas to protest even the idea of discussing such a law that annuls their vote in such a blatant way. Will I stand corrected? I doubt it.

But meanwhile, this is of course a great distraction in the chavista circus where all must be discussed but what really needs to be discussed, such as crime and traffic and corruption.

I tell you what should happen if we had a real opposition in Venezuela: tomorrow a committee should be formed to prepare for the Recall Election of Cilia Flores who as a Caracas representative is accepting that such an undemocratic law is put to discussion in the chamber she presides. And it should be called clearly, stating that her decisions go against the will of the Caracas people and as such she should be removed as she is not representing them anymore. And if people from either side were not afraid, were democrats, were willing to fight for their rights then they would have no problem signing on the petition to call a vote on that, Tascon list or not.

I am not holding my breath. Meeting with Aznar is so much easier, so much more fulfilling, so much more effective to make sure that Caracas is adequately ruled.

-The end-

2009 Venezuela

Where are we standing now? The February 15 vote has indeed changed some of the parameters of Venezuela but it has not solved any of the basic problems and as such we have not progressed towards any satisfactory settlement, political, economical or social for that matter. However a few things are now clear: the electoral composition of the country and the economic crisis on its way to hit us, and real bad, are the things that will push Chavez toward a further radicalization of his policies with disastrous consequences.

The not so new political division

One thing that is now very clear is that we know exactly how the Venezuelan electorate is divided, without any of these external parameters weighing in such as local politicians, local issues, historical perspectives and others. After 10 years of rule the country has decided strictly based on Chavez merits and as such it has awarded him 55% of the vote. Which is his lowest personal score, by the way, but a clear majority nevertheless.

As I have written in preceding texts, I personally think that those 55% of the country that voted for Chavez are basically of undemocratic nature. Not that the 45% who voted against him do not contain also a significant amount of not very democratic folks, but it is my conviction that the immense majority of the Venezuelans who have a democratic fiber in them did vote NO on February 15. Those who did not vote NO were either unable to vote for X reason, or actually belong to the counted few democrat idealists still hanging around the Chavez camp. As such the lesson we must get out of February 15 vote, no matter how bitter that lesson is, is that the large majority of Venezuelans, perhaps as much as 2/3 of the country really do not care how things are done as long as they get what they are seeking. I cannot write it in any more charitably.

Let’s decompose the chavista electorate of three weeks ago.

A portion is hard core chavista and would vote for him no matter what, even if he were found in bed having sex with an underage boy.

Another portion vote for him because they think that Chavez is offering them some revenge from real or imaginary ills. Usually voting for Chavez is an excuse for their own shortcomings. We call them the “resentidos sociales”.

There are those who are scared, who think that if they do not vote for Chavez they are going to lose their jobs, or social unrest will come, or their relative would lose their jobs, or something. These people do not care about the large issues at all, probably only vote when they feel their routine threatened. We can include in this group a strange group of conservatives who actually think that they should be allowed to vote for the same cacique for as long as they feel like it. Indeed according to some pollsters when Chavez allowed all politicians to run for ever, that is when his chances to win brightened.

And of course we cannot forget another large constituency, those who are getting something out of the regime, be it a meager misión stipend, or a juicy governmental contract, it does not matter. They are out looking to make a buck and they cannot care less if others are making more or less than them, if the system is fair or not, as long as they get their hands on something.

All of these people share something: they all know very well what Chavez does, how reckless and abusive he is, how corrupt his regime turned out to be. They all knew that perfectly well and yet that did not stop them from voting for him. They have absolutely no excuse, never should they be allowed to say that “Oh, I did not know! Oh, I was following orders!”. After ten years, they have no excuse and thus the only rational explanation for what they are allowing to happen to our country is that they do not care about democracy, they strictly care about what is out there for them to grab. Some kind of perverse “single issue” voter we could call them. It is not that this is such reprehensible attitude towards life and politics, it is just that the difference between the barbaric and civilization resides in the later to be willing to consider more than just its self serving interests or loves. When the barbaric becomes the overwhelming majority, then a society should get ready to get what it deserves.

Chavismo on the rampage

The terrible thing here is that Chavez and his entourage know well the low democratic tenor of their electorate, and the implication in it: no loyalty when things turn sour. He also knows that this year will be more difficult as there will be less lavishness to dispense in 2009. That is why he decided to radicalize his actions.

In 2006 Chavez thought he had it made and did the gorilla thing: RCTV went down, and the “reforma” was launched. Within one year he had received his first knock out, and that happened with Venezuelan heavy crude hovering at the 100 USD level. Now again he basks in victory and he once again behaves as if all was within his reach. Except that now he is missing 15% of the electors he had in 2006, a 15% that more or less found its way to the opposition. Chavez knows that his time is now counted and the time to act is today. He has a very precious few months to create the system that he hopes will lock the deal for him once and for all.

In democracy even a landslide victory is no excuse to create an irreversible social change. True, landslide victories can produce permanent changes in society but at some level all understand that there is certain reversibility, or at least always to possibility to adapt a given system even if it cannot be overturned anymore. But Chavez, and his advisers in particular the Cuban ones are no democrats and with the current crisis they know it is now or never. They do factor in one advantage: the world is so busy with its crisis that any undemocratic move in Venezuela today will not be met by a strong reaction from overseas. Not to mention that these outside folks think that if Venezuelans are stupid enough to vote for a creep so obviously on an authoritarian trip, so be it for them.

And thus Chavez has started to act. All what we see these two weeks, from intervention of the rice processing pants to a radicalization of the personnel in government through a new ministry, is designed for that, to force the economic issue, to stir the people on his side against the only enemy at hand: the opposition for the time being symbolized as the private sector. Which curiously does not stop him form trying to pick up a fight with Obama, as a future needed enemy.

Chavez is obliged to go to war: he has run out of money and he must secure a food supply he cannot easily import anymore. By a series of populist measure he will try to ensure that his Mercal and PDVAL remain supplied. At the same time he finishes off the private sector which is always seen as a threat, not only political but also moral. This is why this week end we saw a Chavez minister implying that the people should not wait for the state to nationalize of intervene private business, they should actually take the initiative. This is why even areperas are a target because they are simply a constant reminder on why the government is unable to tame inflation, not to mention that for the cheap hordes of chavismo they are a convenient scapegoat.

What to expect for the reminder of 2009?

The situation is, to say the least, delicate. The chavista offensive against the private food production concerns is going to be an irremediable disaster: we are not going to have enough food, without having the means to import the needed stuff. To this you need to add the collapsing mining and metal industry of Bolivar and the PDVSA inability to sustain investment to keep up not only its production but also its bloated bureaucracy. True, for a brief period of time, while the new takeovers still sort of work out (a month? three maybe?) there will be a brief euphoria in the chavista base as distribution of cheapened items take place. But this cannot last and then chavismo will have to face the music. Some to all of these things will take place, with their consequence:

Taxes will be raised: any weak possible investment will dry out. Increasing taxes to go out of a crisis can only work as a short gap measure when you have already a strong production base and you want to use these taxes to restart consumption and/or production of some sectors. As it stands today, the private sector that survived the 2002-2005 crisis is working full speed and cannot increase much its current production without massive investments that will take at least a year or two to have any effect.

Public sector employment will be curtailed; private sector job offering will not rise: these people will find no jobs in the private sector. A stalling and then a decrease of production will take place because of the adverse conditions facing the private sector. The increased number of ill conceived regulations that saddle the weakened private sector, from CADIVI to LOCYMAT, are designed to control and weaken the private sector. As the crisis looms we cannot count on the private sector to help, even if it wanted to do so.

Food shortages will come back with a vengeance: the government will be faced with either allowing prices to rise sharply or to institute some form of rationing system.

Budgetary cuts will have to be decided: once weapon purchases are canceled the only fat that can be cut is at the level of social misiones, or increasing gasoline prices.

A devaluation will happen: this, with all that is already listed above will lead to higher inflation than the 30%+ we already observe.

If to all of this you add the deliberate political tensions that Chavez is creating these days what do you expect the final results to be? Social breakdown and the increased repression justified in the name of keeping order in the country. That repression will include serious attacks to freedom of expression as the government will need to hide its economical failure and the repression it needs to undertake to make sure this one does not affect its hold to power.

It is a classic textbook scenario. In fact, it is quite possible that Chavez looks forward open confrontation, civil war even, to become either a martyr Che style or a Mugabe/Castro feature. Or why do you think that Venezuela this weekend decided to support Sudan's Bashir, Darfur genocide notwithstanding?

There is no more pretense even.

And these sad considerations force me to consider what I should be doing for myself and this blog.

-The end-

No more arepas for you

At times chavismo manages to combine in one single item all what we need to establish its stupidity, ignorance, arrogance and intolerance. The announcement of the brand new minister, price control inquisitor extraordinaire, Eduardo Saman, to look into the arepa price is such an instance.

For those late in this game the arepa is the unique, and glorious, contribution of Venezuela to world gastronomy, our own way to make a very special type of corn bread that is stuffed with only your creativity as the limit (I have my own recipe of yellow corn arepa with sauteed mushroom which is out of this world).

Well, Mr. Saman, on his way to "inspect" (harass is a much better word) a corn flour plant of Polar stopped to eat an arepa de pernil and he was scandalized by its cost. Well, obliviously it has been a long time he has not had to pay for his own food because the reported price is one yours truly has been paying since early last year, and for the cheaper cheese arepas as I am near veggan.

Well, Inquisitor Saman, this why I think that you are:

ignorant

Carlos Andres Perez in the mid 70ies decided to regulate the price of arepas served to public. Within a couple of years 95% areperas had stopped serving arepas (areperas, where arepas are made and served). I remember that as a college student then I could not eat arepas when I was coming back home on holidays (at home my parents did not cook the stuff, we only ate them outside of home). Even after the regulation was lifted it took half a decade to again see areperas regularly in the landscape of food offering. Only in the 90ies were finally areperas as wide spread as desirable, and their quality reaching again pre regualtion days. The only folks who benefited from that were US fast food joints never subjected to regulation.

stupid

You try to imply that areperas owners are conspiring for the good of the country, that they are speculating on the price of the served arepa. Are you aware what is charged in restaurants for other food items? Have you an idea what a burger, industrially made, costs, compared to arepas that by definition and necessity must be artisanal, even in a big joint? Look at the picture of this very average arepera stand: are this people really getting rich out of speculation? Are the people purchasing an arepa there stopped by the high cost of the arepa served?

But most of all, if people are paying for an arepa what one would pay for a burger, does it not speak well of the gastronomic tastes fo the people in Venezuela? And of your poor own taste, by the way.... I mean, arepa de pernil just before going to a tough job activity... no wonder you were in bad mood and screwed the rice concerns.

arrogant

That you decided on your own what should be the price of an arepa is astoundingly arrogant. Not to mention that your calculation to come up with the price is simply dead wrong. According to you an arepa sold at 20 should cost only 1.50. I can say from that you have no f*****g idea on how arepas are made, the work it takes, the price of the diverse ingredients that go in, and most of all the overhead costs that the stupid policies of your government force upon the areperas. Asshole, why don't you make a living for a few weeks working at an arepera instead of preparing yourself to close them?

intolerant

Finally, you show how intolerant chavismo is. It is the same old story than for RCTV: did you ever heard of remote control for TV sets? If people watched RCTV instead of VTV was it because RCTV had rigged their TV sets in such way that only RCTV could be detected?

It is the same thing with arepas at 20. If people are willing to pay for them (and my goodness, do they! areperas are full of people at breakfast and lunch time, and not that empty at dinner time) could it not be because they chose to do so? Why did they not stay at home? Or had breakfast before living for work? Or did not bring a sandwich at work? Why did they not go to the cheap Chinese joint? Or to Burger King? Are they THAT STOOOPID to pay top price for an arepa when they can actually roll them themselves at home, just as I do at least once a week?

Why is it that you have that need to rescue us from things that are not threatening us, and along the way making sure that once again arepas will become lousy before eventually disappearing from the streets?

Why is it that you need to get your nose in every detail of our lives? Fuck off!

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PS: read the comments of pro Chavez people in the YVKE link I gave above and here again. Observe that some of the comments are actually xenophobic and that most are simply what your average "resentido social" would say, wanting all near free, as a divine right of sorts. These people cannot even conceive that at some point there will be no areperas left. Mind boggling! No wonder Chavez keeps being reelected, the ignorance of too many of his voters is truly an asset for him.


-The end-