Today the opposition has called for a work stop for individuals. The regime is in full propaganda mode to claim that the move is a failure. The opposition claims it is a success. So here are 7 items to figure out whether it was a success
1- It is NOT a strike, nor a lock out. What the opposition did was to ask folks to stay put at home between 6 AM and 6 PM.
2- Whether a strike or a lock out or a stay-put, one fact is that it was called on Wednesday for Friday, not even 48 hours before it was supposed to start. A general movement of this nature is not easy to start, and it certainly require preparations so that adverse propaganda will be reduced to a minimum. In France where strikes are too regular an occurrence and where employees are highly trained at such activities, they are rarely called with less than a week notice.
3- You need to understand that the regime has used threats that it often brings to fruition. Never mind that fascist piglets like Diosdado Cabello have said they will seize whatever closes. So public employees will mostly show up for work. And many vulnerable stores/business will not close. To give you an example, my office is next to a small shopping center and this morning the NAZI-onal guard accompanied some agency to take pictures of the stores that did not open. (ADDED LATER: they made another inspection round at lunch time!)
4- Some business simply cannot close because the regime has long decided that certain sectors of the economy are of "public interest" and thus cannot do as they please. For example, all business dealing with food production or selling groceries or banks cannot close because, well, you know what will happen.
5- In addition business that work with perishables (agriculture, livestock, and the like) simply cannot stop. Period. The best they can do is to close the administrative offices but production cannot close, not even on Christmas day.
6- Other folks cannot close, like Emergency Rooms, hospital care for people that got surgery that week, etc...
7- And there is the nature of the Venezuelan. Many of us will do what they do everyday regardless of what happens outside. The bubble in which many live is truly astounding. Never mind those who say "heck, I am not working but it is a good opportunity for social visits, exercise, whatever" not realizing that their cars will be counted as activity.
So there you are, weigh carefully these parameters before you succomb to regime propaganda.
My take? The more strident the propaganda the more successful the stay-put. That gauge never fails.
As far as I can tell it is more of a success than what I thought it would be. Heck, even people like me thought it was an error to call such actions so soon!
The régime will not suffer from such strikes. What will make them react is the creation of a support network to help Pdvsa employees quit working. This means organizing a system whereby say 10 families agree to contribute small sums to help each employee that commits to stop work (not resign). Pdvsa runs largely on the effort of young people such as engineers hired since 2003, many of which are not Maduristas. Take about 1000 of them out of their jobs and the system will break down. You see, Pdvsa today isn't like in 2002, when it had spare capacity and everything was extremely well maintained. Today everything is held with chewing gum and there's zero spare capacity. This means that as soon as these young engineers start leaving the system will break down. Their response will be to bring in foreigners such as ecuadoreans, so a certain subsidiary effort will have to be made to make their stay a bit difficult, such as protests in Maturin, punta de Mata, and Cabimas. To be honest, I don't think Venezuelans have what it takes to get this done. As for the march on Miraflores, nothing will happen. They'll simply arrest a few hundred, beat a few dozen, shoot 20 and that's it.
ReplyDeleteThe appropriate title should have been 7 reasons why "the strike" wasn't a full success. That, of course, and the need for some editing before publishing, don't invalidate your shrewd analysis.
ReplyDeleteEditing? What Editing? My English is Shakespeare Worthy!
DeleteKidding aside, I wrote better than expected, not successful. But Maduro lewd comment with Viagra and "parar" indicates that as far as the regime goes it was successful enough to upset them.
¡Gracias por explicarnos la situación!¡Me gusta como escribes! Thanks for explaining to us the situaton! I like the way you write!
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ReplyDeleteWhen is all this talk and smoke screen going to stop and the Regime thrown from power. All talk and no action will not feed the people of Venezuela..
ReplyDeleteYou are welcome to Venezuela, grab a gun, and show us how it is done.
DeleteThe narco-criminal regime is probably laughing at these 'strikes'.
ReplyDeleteAs long as they have the corrupt military, filthy Sebin and putrid Guardia on payroll, who can knock them down?
My guess is many are saying "hora de raspar la olla", meaning steal whatever's left, as fast as possible, and start looking for plan B: escape to Europe or the Caribbean.
Some of the MILLIONS of "pueblo" Enchufados will do that. Open new bank accounts, talk to their filthy rich friends overseas.. But for some of the big fish, such as the corrupt PDVSA thieves, escape and sweet asylum might not be that easy, especially if they messed with drug traffic and the DEA.
Meanwhile, Venezuelans can march or protest every week. A march to Miraflores? It will be stopped way short, of course. This is not Le Jour de la Bastille, when no one had bread, and everyone went out to decapitate a stupid king. This is just the motorizado arrechos days..Much more bark than bite.
One more way to tell - the Venezuelan government bans foreign reporters from entering the country.
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