SOME READING MATERIAL
Tuesday 4, November 2003
I am a little tired and without inspiration these past days, too much traveling I suppose. Fortunately the press has come up with some interesting articles.
Let's start with the debacle in the oil industry. In spite of all of Chavez efforts to pretend that we are pumping as much as before the strike and that everything is just, just wonderful, well, evidence is to the contrary. The Houston Chronicle under the pen of Brian Ellsworth treats us to a rather harrowing description of the deliquescent Venezuelan oil industry.
Two quotes to capture the spirit of the article:
"I used to repair 200 to 300 pumps per month, but I haven't been called to service anything since February," said one contractor, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Buyers complain of high water content of crudes, and contractors report high sand presence in wells and constant problems maintaining well pressure.
and more damning:
Figures provided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the U.S. Department of Energy show Venezuelan oil production close to 2.6 million barrels per day, down from almost 3 million barrels per day in November 2002 and considerably below its quota of 2.9 million barrels per day.
This comes after Venezuela has been one of the most noticeable of the OPEC quota cheaters, despite Chavez's pro-OPEC rhetoric.
Furthermore, Venezuelan authorities now insist on including upgraded synthetic crude as part of petroleum production figures, whereas Venezuela previously categorized synthetic crude as bitumen and therefore not part of quotas. While Venezuela used to understate its production figures, now it is doing its best to inflate them.
The next article is a commentary in the Miami Herald by Oppenheimer and Gunson. The article "Chavez steps up criticism of U.S." describes the mounting campaign (hysteria?) of the Chavez administration trying to find any excuse (enemies?) to distract from the incoming recall election attempt.
Just a quote that the reader can compare with what I wrote on the subject on October 28 and 29:
He has hinted that the U.S. ambassador in Caracas is gay and branded Bush administration officials as ''imbeciles'' and ''criminals,'' while his minions accused the CIA of trying to destabilize the government.
As a side comment I was told that Oppenheimer on TV interviewed Iris Varela and she did not come out too great. It is interesting that Chavez minions are dodging Venezuelan TV and trying to find friendlier spotlights elsewhere. Tarek Saab, the foreign comittee president of the National Assembly, was the victim of such a try in Colombia a few days ago on the guerilla. Compared to his Colombian counterpart in the debate he looked very tense, very repetitive, very unoriginal. It is really good that people outside of Venezuela can see live the second rate politicos that rule our unfortunate country.
PS: I will put the whole articles in the documents section.
Wednesday, November 05, 2003
Friday, October 31, 2003
From the Venezuelan Andes
Thursday 30, October 2003, from a cyber cafe in Merida
A surprise business trip to Merida, in the heart of Venezuelan Andes gives me the opportunity to test the feeling from a region that has been particularly affected by the Chavez administration.
The three taxi drivers I had today were ALL ardently anti-Chavez. When Chavez was elected first, taxi drivers were one of the work groups that were reputedly the most pro Chavez. But times work wonders.
One of the cab drivers reminded me how the election of Merida State governor was particularly deceitful. Indeed, in 2000 of all the questionable elections the one from the Merida State was the biggest "cause celebre" as very precise evidence of electoral fraud was presented and the courts buried deep the cases, which 3 years after have still not been settled!!!! According to the cabbie, people have not forgotten that fraud, even if they did not vote for the injured party.
Apparently, Merida the biggest campus town in Venezuela, has failed to go "left Chavez". It is still a leftist town, I suppose, but it has smelled the authoritarian in sheep's clothing. From what I have gathered in a single day, if we manage to have a recall election, Chavez is in big trouble in Merida. Of course there is the rest of the state but as far as I know I do not recall any big improvement as Chavez has punished Merida since he justifiably doubts its "loyalty" to the revolution.
Meanwhile I am enjoying the mountain sights, further uplifted by so many kindred spirits around me. And I crowned the evening by having ice cream at a "Guinness record" ice cream parlor. It was featured in the Lonely Planet Series show on Venezuela as the place with the largest number of flavors, including sea food, spaghetti and cheese. I was conservative, I took one cinnamon, one sweet corn and one date small scoops. Yummy!
I wonder if I'd dare try calamari ice cream tomorrow night...
PS: it seems that the latest video has floundered even faster than the first "proof" of CIA covert activities. But I am happy tonight, so I am not going to bother checking the data from a cyber cafe. However, I can assure you one thing, of the dozen of so people I talk today not a single one discussed the CIA actions.
PS2: From a well know craftsman today I got myself a ceramic button with the Venezuelan flag and a big SI on it, meaning "yes to the recall election". The Lady that makes them told me that since she is making and wearing the buttons she got only twice someone making a disparaging comment. Let's see how this works out in San Felipe next week.
Thursday 30, October 2003, from a cyber cafe in Merida
A surprise business trip to Merida, in the heart of Venezuelan Andes gives me the opportunity to test the feeling from a region that has been particularly affected by the Chavez administration.
The three taxi drivers I had today were ALL ardently anti-Chavez. When Chavez was elected first, taxi drivers were one of the work groups that were reputedly the most pro Chavez. But times work wonders.
One of the cab drivers reminded me how the election of Merida State governor was particularly deceitful. Indeed, in 2000 of all the questionable elections the one from the Merida State was the biggest "cause celebre" as very precise evidence of electoral fraud was presented and the courts buried deep the cases, which 3 years after have still not been settled!!!! According to the cabbie, people have not forgotten that fraud, even if they did not vote for the injured party.
Apparently, Merida the biggest campus town in Venezuela, has failed to go "left Chavez". It is still a leftist town, I suppose, but it has smelled the authoritarian in sheep's clothing. From what I have gathered in a single day, if we manage to have a recall election, Chavez is in big trouble in Merida. Of course there is the rest of the state but as far as I know I do not recall any big improvement as Chavez has punished Merida since he justifiably doubts its "loyalty" to the revolution.
Meanwhile I am enjoying the mountain sights, further uplifted by so many kindred spirits around me. And I crowned the evening by having ice cream at a "Guinness record" ice cream parlor. It was featured in the Lonely Planet Series show on Venezuela as the place with the largest number of flavors, including sea food, spaghetti and cheese. I was conservative, I took one cinnamon, one sweet corn and one date small scoops. Yummy!
I wonder if I'd dare try calamari ice cream tomorrow night...
PS: it seems that the latest video has floundered even faster than the first "proof" of CIA covert activities. But I am happy tonight, so I am not going to bother checking the data from a cyber cafe. However, I can assure you one thing, of the dozen of so people I talk today not a single one discussed the CIA actions.
PS2: From a well know craftsman today I got myself a ceramic button with the Venezuelan flag and a big SI on it, meaning "yes to the recall election". The Lady that makes them told me that since she is making and wearing the buttons she got only twice someone making a disparaging comment. Let's see how this works out in San Felipe next week.
Thursday, October 30, 2003
“Pura Paja”
The U.S. of A. Ambassador is not buying
October 29, 2003
The behavioral patterns of the Venezuelan administration must be affecting the diplomats posted in Caracas. The US-one, lately in the eye of the storm dues to some due to some alleged CIA activities, went on today to use Venezuelan slang to discuss the attitude of some Venezuelan representatives.
The (in)famous video of last week, pretending to bring to light the CIA activities, had caused a visit of Charles Shapiro to the National Assembly, specifically to assemblyman Maduro to ask for proofs of the CIA intervention. This was last week.
Today, while visiting Zulia state, a state that has become one of the bitterest opponents to Chavez since the oil strike, Mr. Shapiro (1) declared, and I am not making this up, "Nunca lo hizo, entonces eso es como ustedes dicen en buen venezolano: es pura paja". My translation: “He never did it [bring the proofs], thus as you say in good Venezuelan: it is pure straw”. The literal translation does not serve the actual wording of the ambassador. “Pura Paja” means “Total Bull Shit”.
Yes, an US ambassador has qualified one of the “leaders” of the National Assembly as a “total bull shiter” (2). Should the US reader be shocked? Not at all. The ambassador has just replied in kind to Mr. Maduro, perhaps in an effort to “reach and touch him” better since diplomatic language seems to be lost in translation. That or he is watching too many of Chavez’s speeches…
Assemblyman Maduro and others have made a career of levying the most incredible charges never to be bothered afterwards with sustaining them. He promised in last week meeting to provide Mr. Shapiro with the proofs of cover up actions so the ambassador could transmit them to the State Department. Nothing has been brought forward, except for yet another questionable tape today that has been received with even more questioning comments than the previous one.
If Chavez himself in his Sunday routine accuses people of all sorts of misdeeds and never manages even to start a law suit, why shouldn’t the underlings better him up? This reminds me of a famous speech two years ago by Carreno, another of Chavez henchman, accusing Direct TV to set Venezuelan homes with satellite decodifiers that were carrying hidden cameras to check what people do at home. Amazingly, covered in ridicule, he never backed. Then again, he was already inured since he was the one from the administration that announced that Montesinos (3) had been assassinated in Peru by the Peruvian Army and that he had the proof of it. In lieu of proof, Montesinos appeared a few weeks after, having hidden in Venezuela, presumably protected by s sector of the Venezuelan government. The investigation to the “Montesinos Affair” has followed the same route of all “difficult” investigations for the Chavez administration: the “too forget about” drawer. I am sure that there is enough room left in the drawer for the CIA videos.
----------------------------
(1) I have already described the actions of Mr. Shapiro in a previous post, September 24"Three Embassies". He has been criticized a lot, but I happen to think that he might be more effective than what he is being credited for. If anything his effort to understand Venezuelan slang and use it appropriately are commendable. At least with an administration that seems unable to speak proper Spanish.
(2) The English section of El Universal had a much more subdued version:
US ambassador to Venezuela Charles Shapiro rejected once again charges made by pro-government lawmakers regarding CIA's involvement in Venezuela.
Deputies Juan Barreto, Nicolas Maduro and Roger Rondon insisted that the US intelligence service is trying to destabilize President Hugo Chavez' administration.
Shapiro said when he met with Maduro last week, the assemblyman told him he would submit evidence proving his denouncement and he never did. "So, that's rubbish, as Venezuelans say," Shapiro commented.
He added that he disagrees with "microphone diplomacy, but when two deputies attack the US with groundless accusations, I have to respond."
(3) Montesinos was the security head of former president Fujimori, the one that managed the direct corruption schemes of political opponents. The manhunt chase that he generated after the fall of Fujimori was quite something.
The U.S. of A. Ambassador is not buying
October 29, 2003
The behavioral patterns of the Venezuelan administration must be affecting the diplomats posted in Caracas. The US-one, lately in the eye of the storm dues to some due to some alleged CIA activities, went on today to use Venezuelan slang to discuss the attitude of some Venezuelan representatives.
The (in)famous video of last week, pretending to bring to light the CIA activities, had caused a visit of Charles Shapiro to the National Assembly, specifically to assemblyman Maduro to ask for proofs of the CIA intervention. This was last week.
Today, while visiting Zulia state, a state that has become one of the bitterest opponents to Chavez since the oil strike, Mr. Shapiro (1) declared, and I am not making this up, "Nunca lo hizo, entonces eso es como ustedes dicen en buen venezolano: es pura paja". My translation: “He never did it [bring the proofs], thus as you say in good Venezuelan: it is pure straw”. The literal translation does not serve the actual wording of the ambassador. “Pura Paja” means “Total Bull Shit”.
Yes, an US ambassador has qualified one of the “leaders” of the National Assembly as a “total bull shiter” (2). Should the US reader be shocked? Not at all. The ambassador has just replied in kind to Mr. Maduro, perhaps in an effort to “reach and touch him” better since diplomatic language seems to be lost in translation. That or he is watching too many of Chavez’s speeches…
Assemblyman Maduro and others have made a career of levying the most incredible charges never to be bothered afterwards with sustaining them. He promised in last week meeting to provide Mr. Shapiro with the proofs of cover up actions so the ambassador could transmit them to the State Department. Nothing has been brought forward, except for yet another questionable tape today that has been received with even more questioning comments than the previous one.
If Chavez himself in his Sunday routine accuses people of all sorts of misdeeds and never manages even to start a law suit, why shouldn’t the underlings better him up? This reminds me of a famous speech two years ago by Carreno, another of Chavez henchman, accusing Direct TV to set Venezuelan homes with satellite decodifiers that were carrying hidden cameras to check what people do at home. Amazingly, covered in ridicule, he never backed. Then again, he was already inured since he was the one from the administration that announced that Montesinos (3) had been assassinated in Peru by the Peruvian Army and that he had the proof of it. In lieu of proof, Montesinos appeared a few weeks after, having hidden in Venezuela, presumably protected by s sector of the Venezuelan government. The investigation to the “Montesinos Affair” has followed the same route of all “difficult” investigations for the Chavez administration: the “too forget about” drawer. I am sure that there is enough room left in the drawer for the CIA videos.
----------------------------
(1) I have already described the actions of Mr. Shapiro in a previous post, September 24"Three Embassies". He has been criticized a lot, but I happen to think that he might be more effective than what he is being credited for. If anything his effort to understand Venezuelan slang and use it appropriately are commendable. At least with an administration that seems unable to speak proper Spanish.
(2) The English section of El Universal had a much more subdued version:
US ambassador to Venezuela Charles Shapiro rejected once again charges made by pro-government lawmakers regarding CIA's involvement in Venezuela.
Deputies Juan Barreto, Nicolas Maduro and Roger Rondon insisted that the US intelligence service is trying to destabilize President Hugo Chavez' administration.
Shapiro said when he met with Maduro last week, the assemblyman told him he would submit evidence proving his denouncement and he never did. "So, that's rubbish, as Venezuelans say," Shapiro commented.
He added that he disagrees with "microphone diplomacy, but when two deputies attack the US with groundless accusations, I have to respond."
(3) Montesinos was the security head of former president Fujimori, the one that managed the direct corruption schemes of political opponents. The manhunt chase that he generated after the fall of Fujimori was quite something.
Tuesday, October 28, 2003
IS THE C.I.A. UP TO NO GOOD IN VENEZUELA ?
Tuesday 28, October 2003
A quick trip business to Brazil with three days rest in Rio, and it is hard to get back and face up to our reality here. Only two major stinks developed these last days. One, and the worst by far, is the naked attempt by the Chavez administration to grab control of the High Court once and for all. This I need to investigate more before I can write about it.
More fun to write about is the alleged covert actions of the CIA in Venezuela. Apparently two of our “star” assemblymen have presented a video that establish clearly that the CIA is up to no good in Venezuela. Let’s examine this story in more details.
1) The two representatives that have presented the alleged videos, Maduro and Barreto, are among the ones that enjoy the least credit in the National Assembly, or in the country for that matter. The simple fact that they are the ones that presented that video already casts a serious doubt as to the validity, veracity and/or importance of the video. A few weeks ago I actually wrote a little piece on Mr. Barreto and there is little else I could add to what I already said on the character. (September 12: The credibility Gap)
2) I have not seen the whole video since I am just back from Brazil. But from the tidbit and what I have been told, it has the technical hallmark of a hack job. And it does not really say anything really compromising, except for showing an ex (?) CIA advising a security company. A normal job for an ex-CIA.
3) Even if what is shown in the video were to be true it would show a supremely incompetent CIA. Not that the CIA has not made serious blunders in the past but being caught with a well known private protection company that is known to protect some of the leaders of the opposition is just silly. Incidentally, there are several of such companies protecting all sorts of public officials, embassies, etc... It just turns out that the owner of the alleged company was the one protecting Carmona Estanga before April 11 2002. What a wonderful coincidence, isn't it not? And how stooopid of the CIA to have maintained ties with the company that is perhaps the most watched of all the Private Security Companies in Venezuela, whose owner is currently exiled since April 13 2002.... Actually if the CIA indeed got caught that way, then the CIA is more likely to be working for Chavez than against Chavez.
Conclusion: this is most likely a rat.
It is part of the strategy destined to meddle even further the atmosphere and try to find a way, any way, to block the collection of the signatures scheduled for November 28. Just one of the many red herrings thrown by Chavez to see if the opposition loses its wits and bites a bait that would give Chavez an excuse to call off the recall referendum (state of emergency?). So far the opposition has not responded to any of the innumerable inanities thrown at it, and keeps focused on collecting the 20% signatures it needs to force a referendum in the first trimester 2004. (2)
In this light it is easy to understand that Chavez henchmen are willing to “enhance” or even forge any thing that could be used against opposition leaders. Or stir some cheap patriotism, which we all know is the last refuge of scoundrels.
Meanwhile “new evidence” is promised. We can always use a good laugh.
--------
(1) Maduro, since I must describe him, is another one of the “brilliant” failures of the chavismo. He presented himself as the guy that was going to reorganize the trade unions and bring them to Chavez. Apparently he had some experience organizing the Caracas Metro union. Well, apparently the experience was not good enough since after a series of failures, when the Union elections took place he was side stepped by Chavez for Aristobulo Isturiz (who became education minister after he failed to become the head of the unions). Since them Maduro has reinvented himself as one of the leaders in the National Assembly which eventually landed him the job to stonewall the negotiations with the opposition during the December strike and on. At negotiating he is not good. At blocking negotiations be it with the OAS or the National Assembly he is very good. Which is what really his master want.
(2) Any serious poll predict Chavez with less than 40% in voter favorable intention for him, and what is even more dangerous a "hard" 40-50% that say their mind will not change against Chavez until then, no matter what Chavez does. Electoral pollsters say that the hard negative votes cannot be changed quickly, not in barely a trimester. The only tactic that can work in such a short time period is all out negative campaigning.
Tuesday 28, October 2003
A quick trip business to Brazil with three days rest in Rio, and it is hard to get back and face up to our reality here. Only two major stinks developed these last days. One, and the worst by far, is the naked attempt by the Chavez administration to grab control of the High Court once and for all. This I need to investigate more before I can write about it.
More fun to write about is the alleged covert actions of the CIA in Venezuela. Apparently two of our “star” assemblymen have presented a video that establish clearly that the CIA is up to no good in Venezuela. Let’s examine this story in more details.
1) The two representatives that have presented the alleged videos, Maduro and Barreto, are among the ones that enjoy the least credit in the National Assembly, or in the country for that matter. The simple fact that they are the ones that presented that video already casts a serious doubt as to the validity, veracity and/or importance of the video. A few weeks ago I actually wrote a little piece on Mr. Barreto and there is little else I could add to what I already said on the character. (September 12: The credibility Gap)
2) I have not seen the whole video since I am just back from Brazil. But from the tidbit and what I have been told, it has the technical hallmark of a hack job. And it does not really say anything really compromising, except for showing an ex (?) CIA advising a security company. A normal job for an ex-CIA.
3) Even if what is shown in the video were to be true it would show a supremely incompetent CIA. Not that the CIA has not made serious blunders in the past but being caught with a well known private protection company that is known to protect some of the leaders of the opposition is just silly. Incidentally, there are several of such companies protecting all sorts of public officials, embassies, etc... It just turns out that the owner of the alleged company was the one protecting Carmona Estanga before April 11 2002. What a wonderful coincidence, isn't it not? And how stooopid of the CIA to have maintained ties with the company that is perhaps the most watched of all the Private Security Companies in Venezuela, whose owner is currently exiled since April 13 2002.... Actually if the CIA indeed got caught that way, then the CIA is more likely to be working for Chavez than against Chavez.
Conclusion: this is most likely a rat.
It is part of the strategy destined to meddle even further the atmosphere and try to find a way, any way, to block the collection of the signatures scheduled for November 28. Just one of the many red herrings thrown by Chavez to see if the opposition loses its wits and bites a bait that would give Chavez an excuse to call off the recall referendum (state of emergency?). So far the opposition has not responded to any of the innumerable inanities thrown at it, and keeps focused on collecting the 20% signatures it needs to force a referendum in the first trimester 2004. (2)
In this light it is easy to understand that Chavez henchmen are willing to “enhance” or even forge any thing that could be used against opposition leaders. Or stir some cheap patriotism, which we all know is the last refuge of scoundrels.
Meanwhile “new evidence” is promised. We can always use a good laugh.
--------
(1) Maduro, since I must describe him, is another one of the “brilliant” failures of the chavismo. He presented himself as the guy that was going to reorganize the trade unions and bring them to Chavez. Apparently he had some experience organizing the Caracas Metro union. Well, apparently the experience was not good enough since after a series of failures, when the Union elections took place he was side stepped by Chavez for Aristobulo Isturiz (who became education minister after he failed to become the head of the unions). Since them Maduro has reinvented himself as one of the leaders in the National Assembly which eventually landed him the job to stonewall the negotiations with the opposition during the December strike and on. At negotiating he is not good. At blocking negotiations be it with the OAS or the National Assembly he is very good. Which is what really his master want.
(2) Any serious poll predict Chavez with less than 40% in voter favorable intention for him, and what is even more dangerous a "hard" 40-50% that say their mind will not change against Chavez until then, no matter what Chavez does. Electoral pollsters say that the hard negative votes cannot be changed quickly, not in barely a trimester. The only tactic that can work in such a short time period is all out negative campaigning.
Saturday, October 25, 2003
NEW RIO DE JANEIRO IMPRESSIONS (3)
Bonus commentary on nepotism and other political evils
In the plane reading the Jornal Do Brasil I caught a very interesting tidbit on Brazilian politics. Benedita da Silva was paying back the sum of about 1700 USD for a trip she took to Argentina. What is interesting here is that the woman, no relation to Lula I believe, is the minister of social welfare of president Lula. Apparently she took a trip to an Evangelical meeting there, which was deemed a personal trip since she is Evangelical herself and she could not justify any state business. So she got a reprimand and had to pay back the plane fare.
Now, for the life of me, I cannot remember when was the last time a Venezuelan cabinet member had to pay back undue expenses...
Once in Caracas I read yesterday yet another Brazilian cabinet member running into trouble for appointing his wife to some consulting position. He was asked to resign. Here, at home, the number of cabinet members that have appointed all sorts of relatives to key positions defies imagination. Hey! Even the great one has appointed, among other, two of his brothers and has had his dad elected governor of Barinas, his home state. `nuf said!
I think Brazil is on its way to solve its problems, or at least trying to do so.
Bonus commentary on nepotism and other political evils
In the plane reading the Jornal Do Brasil I caught a very interesting tidbit on Brazilian politics. Benedita da Silva was paying back the sum of about 1700 USD for a trip she took to Argentina. What is interesting here is that the woman, no relation to Lula I believe, is the minister of social welfare of president Lula. Apparently she took a trip to an Evangelical meeting there, which was deemed a personal trip since she is Evangelical herself and she could not justify any state business. So she got a reprimand and had to pay back the plane fare.
Now, for the life of me, I cannot remember when was the last time a Venezuelan cabinet member had to pay back undue expenses...
Once in Caracas I read yesterday yet another Brazilian cabinet member running into trouble for appointing his wife to some consulting position. He was asked to resign. Here, at home, the number of cabinet members that have appointed all sorts of relatives to key positions defies imagination. Hey! Even the great one has appointed, among other, two of his brothers and has had his dad elected governor of Barinas, his home state. `nuf said!
I think Brazil is on its way to solve its problems, or at least trying to do so.
Friday, October 24, 2003
NEW RIO DE JANEIRO IMPRESSIONS (2)
Lula and Chavez
Friday 24, October 2003
I had been walking a lot that Monday checking out the sights of downtown Rio, enjoying a Brazilian holiday that semi emptied the streets. Resting a little before going out again for dinner I watched TV for a little while. One of the stations was showing President Lula giving a speech. Out of curiosity to hear the sound of his voice, I decided to listen to it. Brazilian Portuguese is actually not too difficult to follow for the Venezuelan ear, even more so when one is fortunate enough to speak another romance language besides Spanish. I quickly gathered that it was an important speech since Lula was installing a symposium at the Brazilian Congress to study an eventual treaty of free trade with the North American association (ALCA, Spanish or Portuguese acronyms).
Such a speech in Venezuela by Chavez on such a sensitive political topic would not have been a missed opportunity by this one to saddle us with yet another “cadena”. But that was not the case in Brazil: only one network was showing the speech live. I know, I zapped my remote and only one TV network was broadcasting the speech live.
Lula was actually reading from notes, but in a very natural way, which probably means that he wanted to be sure the message he was transmitting was complete and coherent. This lasted a very few minutes, then Lula gathered all the sheets of paper together, put them aside and gave a few personal remarks. These remarks were to the point, nothing personal. Although it is clear that his administration will lead the negotiations, it was clear that he was speaking in the name of Brazil and that he was encouraging the Brazilian Congress to participate actively and study the issues well. He stressed that this was not the time of personal positions and political gains but that Brazil had to negotiate as one. “We want to make this clear: it is not a matter of saying yes or no to ALCA, but to discuss what ALCA we want” (my free translation from a column of Jornal do Brasil in the plane next day). Nothing that I could gather smelled of personal aggrandizement: Lula seemed genuinely to be more of the cheer leader of the negotiation team-Brazil than trying to impose any particular view on the matter he might have. His stronger words were really to the US stating that we will discuss ALL and not only the issues that the US wants to discuss.
The total duration of the speech must have been in the 10-15 minutes order. Congress and assistance applauded a different intervals and as far as I can tell no booing or over enthusiasm came from the audience. All in all, very institutional, very organized and business like.
In Venezuela such a speech would have lasted at the very least an hour, in “cadena”. Chavez would not have read notes, except on occasion pick up a small piece of paper that seems more a list to “to do” than any prepared speech. The speech surely would have included strong attacks on neo-liberalism, assorted to cheap criticism of the USA desire to impose its will. A few wild card ideas such as creating a South American block to face the world would have been floated, yet again while conveniently forgetting that Venezuela is the main sabotager of the only block to which it belongs, the Andean Block. All of this garnished with personal comments on his youth in Barinas, narrating what supposedly people in the streets tell him of the Free Trade Zone proposal, grim examples of neo-colonial exploitation and of course reminiscences of April 11 2002 alleged coup and the press plotting against his pure regime. Not forgetting of course his latest phobia, the international complot against Venezuela.
This is all well and fine but nowhere on Chavez discourse you would have seen a well thought counter proposal, nor mention of the people that would be negotiating and even less encouragement to do a good job. The listener would leave thinking that actually one of the two things would happen: either that night mighty Chavez will sit with a couple of collaborators and draft a proposal on his own to regulate, say, intellectual property, or that he will just avoid negotiating anything since whatever is on the table can only end up to be in the favor of the US of A. But nowhere the listener would have gathered a clear indication of what would be the issues to be negotiated, which ones are crucial to Venezuela, etc… In other words, as usual, nothing constructive would be unearthed of the hodgepodge that his speeches are.
This was rather a revelation for me. I knew that Chavez was an incorrigible babble-mouther, that he loves to get drunk with his own words. But somehow one gets used to his style to the point of forgetting that the real style of a responsible president, even from the left as Lula, is to be able at least on occasion to give a managerial speech. Chavez is unable to do so. All his speeches are political litanies and tales of recriminations and woes, real of imaginary.
Indeed, in 10 minutes of TV watching in my hotel room, in a foreign language, I understood better the issues described by Lula than any issues ranted for two hours in Spanish by Chavez.
There is no way around: Chavez lacks elemental managerial and organizational skills, even at the level of his speeches. What carries Chavez’s speeches is the emotion, not necessarily the content. The chaos of his administration certainly reflects that.
Lula and Chavez
Friday 24, October 2003
I had been walking a lot that Monday checking out the sights of downtown Rio, enjoying a Brazilian holiday that semi emptied the streets. Resting a little before going out again for dinner I watched TV for a little while. One of the stations was showing President Lula giving a speech. Out of curiosity to hear the sound of his voice, I decided to listen to it. Brazilian Portuguese is actually not too difficult to follow for the Venezuelan ear, even more so when one is fortunate enough to speak another romance language besides Spanish. I quickly gathered that it was an important speech since Lula was installing a symposium at the Brazilian Congress to study an eventual treaty of free trade with the North American association (ALCA, Spanish or Portuguese acronyms).
Such a speech in Venezuela by Chavez on such a sensitive political topic would not have been a missed opportunity by this one to saddle us with yet another “cadena”. But that was not the case in Brazil: only one network was showing the speech live. I know, I zapped my remote and only one TV network was broadcasting the speech live.
Lula was actually reading from notes, but in a very natural way, which probably means that he wanted to be sure the message he was transmitting was complete and coherent. This lasted a very few minutes, then Lula gathered all the sheets of paper together, put them aside and gave a few personal remarks. These remarks were to the point, nothing personal. Although it is clear that his administration will lead the negotiations, it was clear that he was speaking in the name of Brazil and that he was encouraging the Brazilian Congress to participate actively and study the issues well. He stressed that this was not the time of personal positions and political gains but that Brazil had to negotiate as one. “We want to make this clear: it is not a matter of saying yes or no to ALCA, but to discuss what ALCA we want” (my free translation from a column of Jornal do Brasil in the plane next day). Nothing that I could gather smelled of personal aggrandizement: Lula seemed genuinely to be more of the cheer leader of the negotiation team-Brazil than trying to impose any particular view on the matter he might have. His stronger words were really to the US stating that we will discuss ALL and not only the issues that the US wants to discuss.
The total duration of the speech must have been in the 10-15 minutes order. Congress and assistance applauded a different intervals and as far as I can tell no booing or over enthusiasm came from the audience. All in all, very institutional, very organized and business like.
In Venezuela such a speech would have lasted at the very least an hour, in “cadena”. Chavez would not have read notes, except on occasion pick up a small piece of paper that seems more a list to “to do” than any prepared speech. The speech surely would have included strong attacks on neo-liberalism, assorted to cheap criticism of the USA desire to impose its will. A few wild card ideas such as creating a South American block to face the world would have been floated, yet again while conveniently forgetting that Venezuela is the main sabotager of the only block to which it belongs, the Andean Block. All of this garnished with personal comments on his youth in Barinas, narrating what supposedly people in the streets tell him of the Free Trade Zone proposal, grim examples of neo-colonial exploitation and of course reminiscences of April 11 2002 alleged coup and the press plotting against his pure regime. Not forgetting of course his latest phobia, the international complot against Venezuela.
This is all well and fine but nowhere on Chavez discourse you would have seen a well thought counter proposal, nor mention of the people that would be negotiating and even less encouragement to do a good job. The listener would leave thinking that actually one of the two things would happen: either that night mighty Chavez will sit with a couple of collaborators and draft a proposal on his own to regulate, say, intellectual property, or that he will just avoid negotiating anything since whatever is on the table can only end up to be in the favor of the US of A. But nowhere the listener would have gathered a clear indication of what would be the issues to be negotiated, which ones are crucial to Venezuela, etc… In other words, as usual, nothing constructive would be unearthed of the hodgepodge that his speeches are.
This was rather a revelation for me. I knew that Chavez was an incorrigible babble-mouther, that he loves to get drunk with his own words. But somehow one gets used to his style to the point of forgetting that the real style of a responsible president, even from the left as Lula, is to be able at least on occasion to give a managerial speech. Chavez is unable to do so. All his speeches are political litanies and tales of recriminations and woes, real of imaginary.
Indeed, in 10 minutes of TV watching in my hotel room, in a foreign language, I understood better the issues described by Lula than any issues ranted for two hours in Spanish by Chavez.
There is no way around: Chavez lacks elemental managerial and organizational skills, even at the level of his speeches. What carries Chavez’s speeches is the emotion, not necessarily the content. The chaos of his administration certainly reflects that.
Thursday, October 23, 2003
NEW RIO DE JANEIRO IMPRESSIONS (1)
A tale of two downtowns
Thursday 23, October 2003
I was lucky enough to get a second weekend in Rio. This time having already visited the main touristy sites, I was in less of a hurry as in July. I had time to visit Downtown Rio and watch TV. It was a rather impressive experience.
First, Downtown Rio. It is a normal downtown. Weird smells can waft to your nostrils. Some ruined down areas that could be beautifully recovered (old houses for example are still surprisingly numerous). Some “unexplainable” garbage here and there. Even a prostitute tried to follow me as I was trying to find some old houses to take a picture of them (well, you know, I was in my touristy gear). All very normal.
Downtown Caracas, as I described earlier, seems more of a war zone than anything else. If Caracas now perhaps reaches Rio in Population, it largely surpasses it in chaos and urban decrepitude. Walks in downtown Caracas are a true test of grit and stamina. Dodging the street vendors that occupy all the side walks, avoiding garbage, avoiding breathing, really tells you a lot on your physical fitness. Not to mention the rampant insecurity. And I will pass on the physical deterioration of the side walks themselves, the old buildings, and the ones prematurely aged.
Only one explanations, authorities, today or past ones have not done their job and even behaved irresponsibly towards Caracas. The Chavez contribution is to have left the informal street vendors take over the place. Why? Plain incompetence at trying to keep a minimum of order? Mercantile interests by some obscure factions? Political favors? A way to keep an army of mercenaries at hand while somewhat paid?
The truth of the matter is that if my January description of Caracas was rather harrowing, it has gotten much, much worse today. There is just no excuse for the Chavez administration, and his henchman Bernal as the mayor of Caracas Downtown District, to have let things degrade to the point where they are at.
And I am not even talking of the soaring crime rate in Caracas, where the number of people killed read more like war casualty numbers. I wonder if it is even worth while comparing the statistics between the two cities: my bet is that per capita Caracas beats Rio. But I am too depressed to check.
A tale of two downtowns
Thursday 23, October 2003
I was lucky enough to get a second weekend in Rio. This time having already visited the main touristy sites, I was in less of a hurry as in July. I had time to visit Downtown Rio and watch TV. It was a rather impressive experience.
First, Downtown Rio. It is a normal downtown. Weird smells can waft to your nostrils. Some ruined down areas that could be beautifully recovered (old houses for example are still surprisingly numerous). Some “unexplainable” garbage here and there. Even a prostitute tried to follow me as I was trying to find some old houses to take a picture of them (well, you know, I was in my touristy gear). All very normal.
Downtown Caracas, as I described earlier, seems more of a war zone than anything else. If Caracas now perhaps reaches Rio in Population, it largely surpasses it in chaos and urban decrepitude. Walks in downtown Caracas are a true test of grit and stamina. Dodging the street vendors that occupy all the side walks, avoiding garbage, avoiding breathing, really tells you a lot on your physical fitness. Not to mention the rampant insecurity. And I will pass on the physical deterioration of the side walks themselves, the old buildings, and the ones prematurely aged.
Only one explanations, authorities, today or past ones have not done their job and even behaved irresponsibly towards Caracas. The Chavez contribution is to have left the informal street vendors take over the place. Why? Plain incompetence at trying to keep a minimum of order? Mercantile interests by some obscure factions? Political favors? A way to keep an army of mercenaries at hand while somewhat paid?
The truth of the matter is that if my January description of Caracas was rather harrowing, it has gotten much, much worse today. There is just no excuse for the Chavez administration, and his henchman Bernal as the mayor of Caracas Downtown District, to have let things degrade to the point where they are at.
And I am not even talking of the soaring crime rate in Caracas, where the number of people killed read more like war casualty numbers. I wonder if it is even worth while comparing the statistics between the two cities: my bet is that per capita Caracas beats Rio. But I am too depressed to check.
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