The last weeks of the chavista regime?

THE LAST WEEKS OF THE CHAVISTA REGIME?
PART 2: Corruption and plunder

Fin de Règne Caracas: a scramble for jobs, caught squatters, corruption accusations flying and the pillaging of PDVSA and our national cultural heritage

In the past couple of weeks came to the forefront a bevy of chavista infighting. It is turning ugly as all sorts of accusations are flying.

Upheaval in squatter deals

One rather amusing case is the arrest of a certain Yasmin Manuit. This very well armed woman was directing one of the gangs that has specialized in squatting all sorts of buildings in the Caracas area under the rule of mayor Freddy Bernal, an erstwhile Chavez faithful. Until now it has seemed that this squatting for profit was done by Lina Ron and Ms. Manuitt, while Bernal had his police turn a blank eye. Suddenly it was all over. Yasmin has seen herself handcuffed and after 4 years of neglect Bernal's police is suddenly expelling squatters. For the last few days Lina, Freddy and Yasmin have been calling each other names, real bad names, not what they were used to do when they discretely blackmailed the building owners that wanted their property back. Who knows what happened there! Someone got short changed? Electoral fever pushing Bernal to pay lip service to private property? Whatever it is, it surely beats Venezuelan soap operas vivid imagination!

Representative Rondon gets even

On a definitely more serious note we have the case of representative Rondon. Until a few days ago the chairman of the powerful oil committee in the National Assembly, he has been fired and expelled from his party for demanding that the oil minister come to the committee to account for his actions. Revolutionary ministers apparently feel that they are exempt of such decadent democratic procedures.

Tonight Rondon has aimed higher in his corruption accusations, targeting Baduel, the general who most helped Chavez on April 2002 and who is expected to be the fourth general in Venezuelan history to get three stars (Chavez has named 3 of them, incidentally, for revolutionary battles one imagines).

In the picture Rondon is shown with what he claims is the original of a 1999 letter that Baduel sent to help secure some contract in the oil industry. Traffic of influences it is called. What is rather amusing is that this was the retort to a weak attempt by representative Luis Tascon to pin down Rondon with the same charge yesterday. Rondon has declared that "he knows things that could make the government fall". I wonder how do they feel using among themselves the questionable tactics that they have used on the opposition for the past 4 years.

The opposition is not running into the arms of Rondon, by the way. After all he has been for quite a while a chavista lap dog and his credibility is barely any better than Tascon of the infamous web page that listed people who signed in the Recall Election drives. His famous "Tascon list" was blatantly used to fire people in the public administration.

One wonders if Rondon has had enough or if he is just upset because he was left out of some juicy deal. However, what I have observed is the amazingly articulate discourse of Rondon, intelligent and organized. Rondon until a few weeks ago was only too happy to repeat the party line in his talk show apparitions. Who is the real Rondon? Is he a free agent or is he making up something, maybe with he anti Baduel camp?

PDVSA is sinking and whatever can be scavenged by chavismo is grabbed

But Rondon accusations are unfortunately not unfounded. Reports of PDVSA troubles are more and more insistent. Gustavo Coronel summarizes all the recent reports from low production to financial maneuvers. Indeed among the many things that PDVSA is doing one is to finance the glorious bolivarian revolution. This has obviously created some "financial problems" not to mention expenses difficult to justify. The solution seems to be quite simple: PDVSA is buying back its bonds to get out of the market and thus avoid the obligation of accounting for its finances to the US Securities and Exchanges Commission.

The problems at PDVSA since its take over by the chavista hacks are for all to see. El Universal translates in English an article justly titled PDVSA: a ship adrift. A rudderless PDVSA, who had become the only reliable financial source of any Venezuelan administration, is looking more and more as the near dead goose of the golden egg. Which did not stop the current pillaging administration to grab an extra 2 billion dollars out of PDVSA coffers to finance the Chavez campaign to try to defeat the Recall Election. Well, more likely to line up the pockets of a few officials that feel that the future comes on August 15, and want to be ready no matter what.

But PDVSA is not the only thing being plundered. In another stunning article Milagros Socorro wrote Thursday in El Nacional about all the Venezuelan historical collections which seem to be disappearing, on how some historical sites are barred from view to the public and the press. As a challenge she has asked for proofs of misdeeds with our cultural treasures or to be left in the places, catalog in hand, to write publicly that all is there and it was just a nasty campaign against the Chavez administration. I am afraid that she will rather be disappointed.

Fin de Règne?

Indeed, one can wonder what will be left of the country after August 15. The feeling that we are the end of something suffuses more and more the air we breathe, the news we watch. Even if Chavez remains a new era will come, an era where Chavez will finally control all and democracy as we have known it since 1958 will be gone. It will be a pauperized country, a country unable to reach the growth level it requires to have a chance of leaving poverty. A country on the way to a modern Cuban lifestyle, or on its way to civil war. Opposition and chavismo all know that. This explains the atmosphere we have now where all seem to wait for the sky to fall while a few try to make a last quick buck. Though, no matter the perturbing recent polls, some like this blogger hope for blue skies. There were always people putting their hopes on the new king.

THE LAST WEEKS OF THE CHAVISTA REGIME?
PART 1: I wanna be a Justice!

Fin de Règne Caracas: a scramble for jobs, caught squatters, corruption accusations flying and the pillaging of PDVSA and our national cultural heritage

Is this an optimist title? Well, yes in that this is what I personally hope. Unfortunately it is still far from certain. But the atmosphere that is in Caracas these days is more evocative of the end of an era than the promise of a bright new future. For all of its claims of an impending victory, the chavista ship looks more like a Titanic that hit an iceberg of 2.6 million signatures.

I was on the road these last days and could not write. Then again I would have had trouble choosing a particular issue. Thus, as I do on occasion I will pick a few representative scenes that do evoke this deliciously deliquescent Fin de Règne atmosphere that the French qualified so well, having had so many kings which such endless reigns. Next, all from a judicial scramble to a corruption accusation to the chief of staff general Baduel. A rather long catalog, but it must be told.

The judicial sauve qui peut

Now that the new law of the High Court has been approved (at the very least questionably) it is time to fire the Justices that are not in the good graces of the regime. But surprisingly it has become more important to name the extra dozen or so Justices that the administration can now place in the court. As the Recall Election nears, a 12 year term seat in the high court seems quite appetizing for some, just in case.

Already the formation of the committee to chose the new Justices was not very promising. The opposition considering the whole deal illegal decided not participate and prepares instead for the mother of all filibusters. However, the worst was the election of the chairman of the committee: Representative Carreño. If there is a discredited representative in the Venezuelan parliament it is Carreño. From announcing the death of a very alive Montesinos (1) to declaring that Direct TV had a hidden camera in the decoding device to spy the Venezuelan people, this representative has demonstrated once and again that he is totally unfit for any public office. But as one of the very few unconditional of El Supremo it is certain that he will do all the necessary dirty work to ensure that all new Justices tow closely the Revolutionary line.

The list of judicial nominees so far goes beyond all that one would have expected in cynical posturing. One is representative Luis Velásquez Alvaray, the father of the beast, the new Judicial Law and a pro Chavez hack if any. Well, he sent a letter to the manager of the president's party to say that as of now he will not be exercising any political function for the party. The letter received and signed by the manager was then duly registered at the notary public. Today Velásquez Alvaray announced that he was candidate to the High Court and that as registered in the notary he was now impartial and thus fit for the job, to offer justice to all.

For the US readers. Imagine a few years ago that Edward Kennedy or Jesse Helms would want to be named to the Supreme Court and would sign a personal note as to their impartiality and fairness as to that moment. And try to imagine that Republicans or Democrats would buy that one and vote for their nomination. Yes, that gross! Except that Helms and Kennedy would have the good sense not to expose themselves to such ridicule, and actually took pride in their partisanship which actually reminded their respective parties of their core values.

But it gets better. Among the list of unfit candidates appears the actual formal head of the Electoral Board, CNE's Carrasquero! That is, the guy supervising, in theory, the critical electoral moment is bailing out to the High Court! And gossip has that he wants nothing less but to become the new president of the High Court as a prize from having being able to postpone by a full year the Recall Election. Just as if the head of the US GOP electoral effort suddenly decided to fill an unexpected Supreme Court opening. Unbelievable nerve!

What a way to save one's butt in case an unfavorable electoral outcome were to happen: sauve qui peut! (whoever can save his skin, do it!, a lousy translation)

But you do not need to wait for the installation of the new High Court to have a taste of how justice will be administered in Venezuela. The investigation report by the National Assembly on the burnt soldiers of Fort Mara stated that the violent fire was originated from inside! From soldiers that at most had matches! Of course the opposition did not approve the report. And the majority representatives that voted yeah are the same ones that will vote on the designation of the new judges.

Thus Human Rights Watch stands vindicated as his report last month is proving to be quite to the point. HRW even allows itself to reply to the rudeness of the Vice President when it disqualified them in a demonstration of his ignorance and political vindictiveness. Which of course does not stop other lackeys from barking against HRW.

Justice and self criticism are the first casualties of the end of eras.

A quick note

Capriles Radonsky is still detained on made up charges and is becoming the poster boy of political prisoners in Chavez's Venezuela, no matter what the diverse apologists of the regime say (you know who you are).

Caracas Chronicles and Miguel, back from his trip, post with comments a Wall Street Journal article on Baruta's mayor. I cannot comment on it as I will be on the road for the next couple of days but I wanted to make sure that it was not missed. Besides there is little I could add, anyway.

PS: if anyone wants to offer me a WSJ subscription for faster comments, feel free :-) Contrary to other outlets, recently in the news for being funded with Venezuelan government money, this blog cannot afford the WSJ subscription. I just feel that people should know, so they will not need to investigate me. The only subscritpion I have is to Tal Cual and Teodoro did not sent it complementary in spite of all the translations I made :-)

A strange Electoral Campaign in Venezuela

The early electoral strategy of each side, and a few numbers

Sunday 27, June 2004

Soon we will be half way in the time interval between the Recall Election on Chavez rule (August 15), and its announcement. Yet, the outside observer would be forgiven if she wondered about what kind of election we are running. Certainly this is going to be quite an atypical event, in particular in South America were strong leaders remain in office no matter, or are booted out unceremoniously. An atavism that resurfaces often, at least in the pro Chavez camp.

The pro Chavez camp

Once all the talk of "megafraud" was over, as begrudgingly Chavez admitted that there were indeed enough signatures, the first question for chavismo was to make people forget such a distasteful campaign and its ignominious failure, not to mention the lies. Thus Chavez launched the "campaña de Santa Ines" and a "Maisanta commando", digging into some mythological Venezuelan past to create an atmosphere of last battle and mobilize his troops the better. The idea of course was not to let his troops linger enough and wonder about one year of electoral tricks that failed.

Now the chavista verbal effort is littered with war terms, the organization includes "commandos" and "patrols". No quarters will be given to the opposition which is blithely associated with a plan from the US to invade Venezuela as soon as it can pull its troops out of Iraq. Or even earlier through Colombia. Amazingly some people are buying it.

But it makes sense at some level. Chavez, an incomplete soldier, yearns from the final battle that will eradicate his opposition. Democracy for him means that the other side waits until he is done with whatever it is he wants to do. More pragmatically, he knows that the numbers are not with him and he needs a rabble-rousing campaign if he is to have a chance at turning the tide. That strategy could indeed work out, or could backfire badly. But if it works out the opposition will be annulled for a few years, enough for him to set a system that could be broken with great difficulty. And foreign opinion will welcome him, and his oil, back as a democrat. That is, if he wins the referendum fair and square.

The anti Chavez camp

The Venezuelan opposition after having invested so much in the recall
election drive reached the desired goal a little bit tired. So far its campaign is not going full steam and that has started worrying a few analysts. But is this a matter of concern? After all the opposition does not have the financial back up that Chavez has, after he has grabbed 2 billion dollars to share around for vote buying. Its effort must be carefully targeted, with outmost efficiency as this is the last chance to remove Chavez in a peaceful way. Thus, before throwing the book at Chavez, a careful preparation is good strategy. Also, as a hodgepodge, the opposition needs time to assuage internal dissention until it can become fully efficient as it demonstrated in November and May when all was patched for the common goal.

In fact the opposition does not need to portray Chavez, we all know who he is. Its campaign must be centered in exposing Chavez voter buying actions, and in offering a more efficient and honest administration to replace Chavez. In this respect, the numbers do help the opposition. The opposition has the electoral capital, it only needs to make sure it is not dilapidated.

A speculation as to how is the Venezuelan electorate divided

Let's imagine a group of 100 Venezuelan electors whose behavior I will speculate about in the table below. From that table, it should become clear that the first priority of the opposition is to keep its voters motivated. It also should be clear that the uphill road is for Chavez, which explains in large part his early start (not forgetting that he loves to campaign and that is the only thing he seems to know how to do).

To understand the following table it is important to realize that signing up one's name with ID number is a very powerful act and it indicates a voter that is highly motivated. After all Chavez has now in his hand a list of all his declared opponents, and he has not been reluctant at using it. Considering all the pressures that people, or their relatives, have suffered in the public administration or elsewhere not to sign, or even to withdraw their signature, it is a safe bet to assume that a large chunk of the population did not sign for the Recall Election but will be very motivated to vote against Chavez. This is the big, big advantage of the opposition, no matter what polls say, as this kind of determination only plays for Chavez if these opponents stay home as it is very unlikely they will return to Chavez. The numbers (percentages) are rounded up to the highest or lowest digit as long as it favors Chavez.

25	Number of voters that will not vote no matter what, based on past patterns and even accounting for more motivated electorate than usual (recent abstention almost reached 50%). This is the chronic abstention. The other type of abstention is calculated at a 20% potential, as an ADDITIONAL abstention. This one is due to a possible lack of motivation of the likely voters as the campaign unfolds; but these voters are unlikely to switch sides.
30	Number of votes that the opposition needs to unseat Chavez (3.7 millions out of the current electoral roll)
20	Number of people whose signature was recognized, people that arguably will not change their mind until August 15 (2.4 million out of the current electoral roll)
5	Number of voters whose signature was not recognized but who did sign (actually that number is 1 or 2 point higher depending on the data versions)
12	Number of people that could not sign but who likely would go and vote against Chavez (1 for every 2 who signed, conservatively, 25/2)
37	Opposition potential, hard core voters
29	Votes that the opposition will get if there is no more than a 20% abstention within its ranks. (37 – 8).
38	Number of likely voters outside of traditional abstention and opposition core support (100 – 25 – 37; not 29 as opposition abstention would not go to Chavez)
30	Hard Core Chavez electoral support according to the average polls in the last year (my average, and I probably should put no more than 25). Even recent surveys, although closing the gap, show a 10% difference in favor of the opposition and I am only putting a 7% difference
24	Number of votes that constitute Chavez hard core supporters, if no more than 20% abstain (30 – 6)
8	Number of voters left to fight for (38 – 30). These are the ones that need to be convinced either way, the famous NiNi (Neither Nor), if they indeed exist
30	Number of voters that Chavez needs to have assuming that the opposition fails to gain any voter during its campaign (as much as 3.7 million and at least one more than what the opposition gets)
6	Numbers of votes that Chavez needs to add from this 8 NiNi to his hardcore base if the opposition does not manage to gain any (30 – 24)
2	Voters left, up for grab, where Chavez needs to gain at least as many as the opposition might gain (8 – 6). That is, Chavez needs at least 1 of these 2
1	What the opposition needs to gain to feel secure enough to beat Chavez no matter what (2 / 2). This would give the opposition 29 + 1 = 30
7	What Chavez needs to gain to feel secure enough to beat the opposition no matter what (6 + 1). This would give Chavez 24 + 7 = 31, ensuring his victory even if the opposition gets the 3.7 million votes.

Of course, this is only a scenario, even if it is a conservative one. Clearly all rests on whose side is more able to motivate its supporters, that is, what will be the final abstention figures, national or among supporters. However it should be clear that no matter what scenario one comes up with, Chavez needs to work more than the opposition. If that explains the early and combative start of his campaign it does not exempt the opposition to take its own campaign seriously. And it does.

From the numbers above the first objective of the opposition is to keep its voters motivated. The more of that 37% opposition potential goes to vote the more difficult it will be for Chavez to survive, even if he motivates his troops equally well. Unfortunately, for him he can only motivate them with more money, more social programs, just as the recently established "misiones" are showing their strain. Whomever he was going to tun into an unconditional supporter has been turned into one long ago.

As to the desired margin of victory, well, that is another story for a future post. It will depend on the respective campaigns and the legal tricks used by chavismo to "modify" the electoral results.

A quick note

Read the eyewitness account of Alexandra Beech at the US Senate hearings on Venezuela this week. And do not forget to read again the Aleksander Boyd reports on how the Chavez money goes to fund his overseas supporters. Then for homework you can meditate on the effectiveness of it all.

Added 24 hours later: Gustavo Coronel has also come out with his own eye witness version. I should also point out that venezuelanalysis has his own version. However the site has next to it an article considering VEA a serious newspaper... Really! But I suppose that now that Ultimas Noticias is once again found disgrace in the eyes of El Supremo, VEA must be promoted. Funnily that interview with a director of VEA points out that he was a TASS correspondent for years. Enough said!

In Venezuela, we are not chained to the TV
It is the TV that is chained to Chavez

Friday 25, June 2004

Today's front page of Tal Cual is priceless.



As I wrote yesterday, most people in Venezuela could not see the Portugal/England football match. The reason was that Chavez decided that we should watch the military parade for 5 hours, perhaps in some sort of atonement to the military for not having protected them from Human Rights abuse inquirers. These pesky justice seeking peaceniks! I do tell you! The nerve of questioning our glorious Venezuelan Army! One could imagine him thinking. Not realizing perhaps that in the US trials have already started on the Iraq prison abuses while in Venezuela we ARE STILL WAITING FOR A SERIOUS INQUIRY ON ALL SORTS OF MILITARY ABUSES SINCE FEBRUARY 27. But I digress.

The fact is that "cadena" means chain. And to put the networks in "cadena" is to chain them to the official message. No doubt that it is Chavez's secret wish, to finally once and for all chain all the networks to his glorification. Hence the chains on the front page picture of the glorious moment when the Portuguese goalie, Ricardo, nailed once and for all the coffin of England's hopes.

Nobody in Venezuela that did not have access to cable could see a single live minute of that great game. Even chavistas talked about that today, surprised themselves by such a relentless "cadena". With the never ending cycle of "cadenas" there is no wonder that the impoverished country still manages to have a third of its TVs receiving some form of cable, legally or illegally.

But Chavez cadenas will not make us forget about the Fort Mara soldiers who died of a painful death. Nor the one that was drowned on purpose. Nor the Nazi-onal Guards that tortured Zambrano to death while raping his girl in front of him. Nor the prisoners vilely murdered in Puerto Ordaz. Nor the clouds of toxic gas released over Caracas after February 27 2004.

No, we will not forget that the ones really betraying the fatherland are those that are unable or unwilling to prove that they are not corrupt military officers such as Lopez Hidalgo, Cruz Weffer, Garcia Carneiro, Ivan Rincon and countless other selling their souls and Venezuela for a few perks and some stars on their shoulders. Chavez can throw any military parade at them, we will not forget.

And in today Venezuela, by writing these words I could be charged of treason to the father land, I'll have my gentle readers know. No more have done the Sumate people, Henrique Capriles, Carvajal, and countless other that are now in jail or waiting for jail any time soon.

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PS: the picture caption, "no me fodas", is a rather strong pun that I rather not translate in this family oriented blog :-)

The electoral campaign started, on Carabobo day
A fitting day for a military electoral campaign

Thursday 24, June 2004

Today is Carabobo day, the anniversary of the major and almost final battle of our independence wars. And it seems that it will be the unofficial start of the Recall Election campaign, depicted by Chavez in military terms for quite a while already.

Though the official start for the Electoral Campaign for the Recall Election of August 15 is July 15, at least according to the rules set by the Electoral Board, CNE, the omens of the last 2-3 days are not good for our peace of mind: life might become unbearable as we near August 15.

Today, to commemorate the Carabobo anniversary, we got treated to a 5 hours "cadena" of the military parade live from the Carabobo fields. A "cadena", for those that are late comers to Venezuelan blogs, is the much abused privilege of the executive to tie ALL the broadcast media, radio and TV, to play simultaneously live or not some message that the government deems important for the Nation to hear. For example, today Chavez decided that we should watch for about 5 hours the military cheap parade. Well, I did not watch it. I have cable TV and I decided to watch the Portugal England football game from Fox Sports network from its Argentina team. Argentineans are good when commenting on European football. Incidentally the fact that many Venezuelan Portuguese could not watch their small country beat England live will probably have cost once and for all the Portuguese vote to Chavez. But I digress.

But why is Chavez doing such an unusually long "cadena" with a military parade? After all his troubles after February 27 and the burnt soldiers debacle he has been bending backwards to assuage the military moods. Such things as increased budgets or expensive parades are the means. Clearly he needs to be as secure as possible of military support before August 15, or at least sure enough that they would not do something against him.

But perhaps we thought that the military "cadena" would be enough. No such luck. Around 8 PM there was yet another "cadena". This time Chavez using his presence in Carabobo state took the opportunity to swear in the local electoral campaign commando.

Now I have a question for all of the chavista supporters in the foreign media, in particular people like those writings in pseudo intellectual leftist papers, or web sites, and who have made a career in accusing the Venezuelan media of bias (it is biased indeed, but with some reasons that these supporters fail to mention). The question is: why is it important to the nation that Chavez force broadcast us the swearing in ceremony of his troops? Is it because the theater was filled up with red shirts? That sure looked nice.

The fact is that Chavez has shown today his campaign colors, truly. He will not be paying for TV advertisement. He will just run all sorts "cadenas" whenever he will feel like. And ask if the opposition will be able to run advertisement on the state TV and radio… You might be disappointed by the answer. Though if you are a Chavez supporter you might be pleased.

I will venture that this strategy might backfire. The Venezuelan people is not that stupid.