SCALING UP THE CONFLICT
Saturday 4, January 2003

After a "truce" for New Year, things are heating up. But first I need to explain something.

According to the 1999 constitution, there is a "recall" election figure that comes AFTER the mid term of any elected official. To activate this feature, one needs to sign up 20% of the district electorate AND the total votes to oust the official MUST be greater than the votes obtained to put the said official in office. It is easy to see that this is a very cumbersome procedure and that it is designed to kick out only notoriously incompetent officials.

In the concrete application to Chavez, who is on record as saying that this is the only formula he would accept, there need to be gathered almost 2 million signatures nationwide after mid August (signatures gathered before could be invalidated!). If all goes well, the process to gather, verify, approve, and organize the election would allow for this election to take place in December 2003 at the earliest. That is, at least another full year to figure out a way to avoid defeat, and when I mean a way I am not talking about good government to convince people to give him another chance... More likely another for year misrule and deepening crisis, and sleazy maneuvers by pro Chavez politicos.

What the opposition has been fighting for is a non-binding referendum. This feature, also introduced in 1999, requires of 10% of the electorate signing up for it. The opposition has garnered almost 20% to ask Chavez to resign. Granted, it would be like a real life poll since Chavez would not be obliged to resign. But it is clear that if Chavez did not manage to obtain more than 30% of the NO, he would be in big trouble and would have to negotiate some way out. All serious polls give him at most 20% NO. And Chavez people have stopped emitting polls, a clear sign that they acknowledge that they are below 50% and unlikely to get back to any level of strength to negotiate (say a 40%). This beauty contest has been called for February 2. Through December we were worried about the "paro" and its consequences but waking up January first we realize that there is only one month for that poll. Chavez went to Brazil and apparently sensed renewed international support. This is his opinion since he got to meet there his mentor Castro for a few hours and Lula da Silva, the new Brazilian president who in an ill advised decision has sent Venezuela a tanker of gasoline to help Chavez out during the strike. It would seem that Lula is having second thoughts as his own trade unions have announced that they will not load any further shipments to Venezuela as long as Chavez keeps threatening to undo legal unions. It remains that South American leaders, who direct governments not as democratic as one would like them to be, seem to be slightly on Chavez side since they are afraid that if Venezuelan opposition wins, that would become a lead to make elected leaders accountable. Imagine that! But this is the story of support that Chavez came back with from Lula's inauguration and there is little evidence to corroborate what he claims.

The fact is that Chavez has realized that he must go to the offensive and now I can start describing yesterday events.

The opposition had called for a march to what is Caracas version of the ceremonial avenue, a large avenue that ends with a huge monument to the heros of Independence Wars, Los Proceres, and which has behind it the main military base of Caracas, Fuerte Tiuna. The reason was that a dissident military has been arrested by military police who refuses to obey the order of a judge to release him. To press on this conflict of powers, a bad omen by itself when Chavez has said publicly that the military needed not to obey all judicial orders, the opposition wanted to demonstrate in front of the Army main quarters. In spite of all the legal permits the army blocked access to that avenue, and let a group of chavistas, at most a thousand, play havoc with the head of the march. The opposition march as it has become usual run into the hundred of thousand and is only armed with whistles and flags. The chavistas had weapons and did not hesitate to use them. Initially the army tried to push them away but eventually let them start some shooting. The Metropolitan police tried to stop that, but a subset of the police under a chavista controlled borough interfered. Eventually the national guard came in and in a brutal show of repression pushed back the opposition march instead of pushing back the chavistas who to the eye of the world had the guns and the agressivity, and the cooperation of police sectors. So far 2 confirmed deaths, several bullet wounds among the official 36 injured folks.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch Chavez has declared that there is no money for the February 2 referendum, and further more the army had too many other priorities than to guarantee protection during the referendum. The Army has traditionally provided security in Venezuelan elections. So if there is no army you can bet that a few polling stations will be at risk these days. He also has announced that he will hire a whole bunch of Algerian and other Middle East oil experts to run the oil industry on strike. This for a nationalist president....

The opposition has countered announcing that they will raise the money to pay for the election and that they will plan a tax boycott. To demonstrate further its resolve, the striking oil industry has made a point by point rebuttal of the government allegations that it was recovering control of the oil industry. Not that it was really necessary as it can be seen in 90% of gas stations closed, and the intermittently open 10% who have miles long car lines. And the even worse lines of folks trying to get cooking gas.

So this is where we stand, entering our second month of national strike, a president menacing now with a state of exception, letting the army and his paid followers hit defenseless civilians and an opposition that only garners more resolve in front of what has become a dictatorship de facto. I say this because it is clear now that Chavez has no intention to go to a free election, nor in February, nor in August or December nor ever. And he has no intention of modifying his team or to loosen his stronghold over the organisms that guarantees the basic freedom and rights of minorities and opposition.