Wednesday 3, December 2003
Actually the numbers I am going to give you are not definitive, nor even accurate. For example the people transcribing the numbers at the different newspaper that I used as sources tend to "forget" a thousand here and there. For example El Universal gives as Chavez total for 2000 3.757.773, but after I transcribe their numbers and add them up, I get 3.767.524. It is really nothing, so I am giving you "my" numbers but I wanted to make this clear in case somebody has been checking some numbers and detects slight differences.
Another thing is that the opposition numbers are not final. That is their exact survey is not done and they have announced that the numbers given so far could increase slightly in the coming days. Nevertheless we can already draw some conclusions.
Let's start tonight with the general numbers and tomorrow I will give you the detailed table on the state by state numbers. I will give you the general table comparing the numbers in 2000 and 2003.
For my calculations I have assumed that the numbers collected by the opposition will be validated as is by the electoral board. And to be fair I have assumed that by some miracle Chavez retains all of his original electors. The opposition gains its votes on the large abstention in 2000 (more than 40%).
| 2000 | 11.720.979 | Electoral Universe | |
| 2003 | 12.014.765 | ||
| 2.402.953 | 20% required signatures 2003 | ||
| Chavez 2000 | Opposition 2000 | Signatures 2003 | |
| TOTAL | 3.767.524 | 2.304.547 | 3.602.051 |
| % electoral universe 2000 | 32.1% | 19.7% | *** |
| % electoral universe 2003 | 31.3% | *** | 30.0% |
The first three lines give the electoral population and the magic number of 20% signatures of the total electoral population of Venezuela.
The red column give the Chavez result of 2000, his share of the electoral population (remember that there was a 40% or more abstention which explains his 59% victory of cast votes), and the share he would have today if everyone of his electors remained faithful.
The purple columns are the votes obtained by the main opposition candidate in 2000 (Arias Cardenas was the main one, there was another one, Fermin, but he did not even get a 5% so I removed him for simplification) and the number of signatures obtained, and what both represent of the electoral population.
Conclusion
Clearly the opposition is biting the heels of Chavez. More than likely part of this opposition growth comes from disaffected chavista voters. In addition a very significant number of people that would vote against Chavez could not sign up (military, public service).
If one takes into account these considerations one could safely add 20% to the opposition numbers if an election were held today. One could also remove a 20% to the Chavez vote, due to the long tenure, the econimic crisis, the disaffection. The result: about 3 million for Chavez and about 4.2 million for the opposition. The opposition is clearly in position to not only win the recall election, but win it with 500 thousand more votes than the required 3.7 million (one vote more than what Chavez got in 2000, per constitutional rule).
Certainly the recall election would be in late March and in three months many things can happen, perhaps improving Chavez chances, or wrecking them further. Regardless, it is no wonder chavistas are grim these days, and unrelenting in trying to find a way to annul enough signatures to drop below the 2.4 million.
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