I have been mesmerized by Carter and Gaviria pretty much backing up the results shown by the CNE. In spite of the way that it was done, which criticism still stands as I write. That is too many lose ends, to many things done in the dark, too many unverified things.
So what could have possibly happened? How could exit polls, several of them, be so far out of touch with the results?
1) Hypothesis one. The Coordinadora Democratica lost the election, did lousy exit polls and now is trying to claim foul. If indeed they are doing such moves and have cheated to the point that this bloggers (and many others bloggers and seasoned journalists) fell for it, then the opposition deserves to go to political hell. Unfortunately we will accompany them as unfortunate sacrificial victims.
2) Hypothesis two. Unfortunately there are other elements. Gaviria and Carter had not lifted their behind from the chair that Quirros Corradi, the technical manager of the opposition campaign pointed out the missing link not addressed by Carter and Gaviria. I have taken the pain to make a diagram, which I hope is self explanatory. The CRUCIAL control to verify that the machines indeed have worked as planned HAS NOT BEEN DONE IN THE PRESENCE OF OBSERVERS AND THE OPPOSITION. This is pointed by the red connecting dot.
Quiros Corradi has gone one step further: if the Carter Center and the OAS do not demand that the CNE allows for a random sample of the ballot containing boxes within the next 24 hours, there will be ample opportunity to tamper them as they are in the hands of the military and nobody can watch to make sure that nothing is happening to them. Then it will not be possible to do a significant audit of the process.
I find a little bit strange that the Carter Center and the OAS will certify a result without making that last verification. Why is it so? Why the hurry when they could have waited yet another day? I better not speculate at this point.
PS: as I am writing this Rodriguez is supposedly adressing this point. But he is not giving all the details. We'll see.
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