I wonder if anyone is aware of the chasm ahead. From what I can see it would seem like no, nobody is taking notice. But then again I may be wrong. Hopefully.
Showing posts with label 2015 crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2015 crisis. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Saturday, December 12, 2015
The last days of Maduro. Or is it of Cabello?
I will try to be short. The actions that Maduro and Cabello are taking are playing against them. One could almost call them suicidal.
Monday, December 07, 2015
A vote for the times
What happened today in Venezuela is truly momentous, better than the wildest hopes the opposition could have ever had a year ago. In the last 3-4 months the objective of a nice victory was getting clearer, but tonight the preliminary result announcing a 2 to 1 victory in seats? No way, Jose!
As I type this I am half drunk with the bottle I drowned on my own over the excruciating long wait of the night. No, I am no lush, I did the pilgrimage for a last vote to San Felipe now that I live mostly in Caracas. I have not gotten around to change my district (next in Petare to help Ocariz). But I had kept that semi cheap Chilean champagne that I did not drink in 2009 keeping it for when chavismo would be ousted. It had to wait 5 years in my fridge and me alone but willing. My stupor is accompanied by the streets which are suddenly awake with caravans of opposition supporters in this very chavista state which may be getting back to old former governor Lapi days.
They are right to celebrate as this election marks the end of an era, at last. Chavismo cannot recover from such as stunning disaster that not even Cuban "expertise" could avoid. There are still 17 seats to be decided, too close to call, but the opposition already has secured the 3/5 supernumerary majority and by getting a few of the 17 it may not reach the fabled 2/3 majority needed for certain laws but it will be strong enough to offer a credible resistance against a desperate regime. The future of chavismo is bleak, and it certainly does not pass through its current structure and mood. Implosion is in the future and speedy internal reform is a must if it does not want to disappear, if it wants to remain a leftist option in Venezuela. Appealing crassly to Chavez memory was a mistake, they killed the idol. Now they are on their own.
There is no need to inquire deeply in the causes of the rout. Empty shelves and 200% inflation say it all. As I wrote often, in the last two years the regime has had the chance to take some economic measures that would not have avoided the crisis but made it less politically damaging. But it did not. The regime was hostage to utmost currency exchange arbitration abuse and drug trafficking, all protected by the upper army cadres. What happened in the end was that the populist government lost contact with the populi. And that was that.
What comes next is an exciting page in our history and renewed blogging fervor from yours truly. Only one thing can be more interesting to blog about than the downfall of a regime: the birth of a new order.
Make no mistake, the road is still flush with ambushes. A narco regime was stunned by a defeat they truly never believed could happen. But as the international penal law starts closing in there is no telling what desperate measures they could be willing to risk. Keep in mind that in spite of the disaster, a 40% still voted for the regime. A quick renewal could mean a quick return.
Yet, the economic disaster will kill political support for whatever system comes next and even that 2/3 potential victory will require for the opposition to reach out to chavismo to avoid the worst, something that could even include an increased civil war. Yes, the daily number of violent death in the country are already the signs of a civil war waged between drug and corrupt gangs for their turf, both against the common citizen.
But how to deal with that is best left for the coming days. Tonight we must celebrate one thing: el pueblo spoke and proved that freebies and promises of freebies are not enough. In the end maybe democratic values are not the decisive factors when voting, but accounting is. And demanding accounting for the rulers is where democracy starts. Let's savor that moment when Venezuelans put aside political polarization, artificially created class and race divides and went all together, from negritos to catires, from tierruos to sifrinos, to say that enough is enough, that equality is not standing all together in line for a little bit of milk.
As I type this I am half drunk with the bottle I drowned on my own over the excruciating long wait of the night. No, I am no lush, I did the pilgrimage for a last vote to San Felipe now that I live mostly in Caracas. I have not gotten around to change my district (next in Petare to help Ocariz). But I had kept that semi cheap Chilean champagne that I did not drink in 2009 keeping it for when chavismo would be ousted. It had to wait 5 years in my fridge and me alone but willing. My stupor is accompanied by the streets which are suddenly awake with caravans of opposition supporters in this very chavista state which may be getting back to old former governor Lapi days.
They are right to celebrate as this election marks the end of an era, at last. Chavismo cannot recover from such as stunning disaster that not even Cuban "expertise" could avoid. There are still 17 seats to be decided, too close to call, but the opposition already has secured the 3/5 supernumerary majority and by getting a few of the 17 it may not reach the fabled 2/3 majority needed for certain laws but it will be strong enough to offer a credible resistance against a desperate regime. The future of chavismo is bleak, and it certainly does not pass through its current structure and mood. Implosion is in the future and speedy internal reform is a must if it does not want to disappear, if it wants to remain a leftist option in Venezuela. Appealing crassly to Chavez memory was a mistake, they killed the idol. Now they are on their own.
There is no need to inquire deeply in the causes of the rout. Empty shelves and 200% inflation say it all. As I wrote often, in the last two years the regime has had the chance to take some economic measures that would not have avoided the crisis but made it less politically damaging. But it did not. The regime was hostage to utmost currency exchange arbitration abuse and drug trafficking, all protected by the upper army cadres. What happened in the end was that the populist government lost contact with the populi. And that was that.
What comes next is an exciting page in our history and renewed blogging fervor from yours truly. Only one thing can be more interesting to blog about than the downfall of a regime: the birth of a new order.
Make no mistake, the road is still flush with ambushes. A narco regime was stunned by a defeat they truly never believed could happen. But as the international penal law starts closing in there is no telling what desperate measures they could be willing to risk. Keep in mind that in spite of the disaster, a 40% still voted for the regime. A quick renewal could mean a quick return.
Yet, the economic disaster will kill political support for whatever system comes next and even that 2/3 potential victory will require for the opposition to reach out to chavismo to avoid the worst, something that could even include an increased civil war. Yes, the daily number of violent death in the country are already the signs of a civil war waged between drug and corrupt gangs for their turf, both against the common citizen.
But how to deal with that is best left for the coming days. Tonight we must celebrate one thing: el pueblo spoke and proved that freebies and promises of freebies are not enough. In the end maybe democratic values are not the decisive factors when voting, but accounting is. And demanding accounting for the rulers is where democracy starts. Let's savor that moment when Venezuelans put aside political polarization, artificially created class and race divides and went all together, from negritos to catires, from tierruos to sifrinos, to say that enough is enough, that equality is not standing all together in line for a little bit of milk.
Sunday, December 06, 2015
The decalogue of a new opposition (eventually?) led National Assembly
A thought exercise first. If the MUD opposition alliance gains a majority in the new National Assembly, who is the opposition? Maduro or the MUD?
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Flowers and letters: no romance for the revolutionary corpse
It is hard to underestimate the weigh of this week's events on an agonizing Maduro's headed regime. Even your prudent blogger is cautiously allowing himself to believe that yes, indeed, the regime's life should be counted in weeks... Or that at the very least a major change is just around the corner.
The week started with the reply sent to Tibisay Lucena by OAS Secretary Luis Almagro. See, Almagro got really upset about the flippancy of Tibisay Lucena, head of the CNE, Venezuela's electoral board. The woman, on orders from the regime that she is only too happy to oblige, is refusing ANY supervision to the crucial electoral process coming on December 6.
The week started with the reply sent to Tibisay Lucena by OAS Secretary Luis Almagro. See, Almagro got really upset about the flippancy of Tibisay Lucena, head of the CNE, Venezuela's electoral board. The woman, on orders from the regime that she is only too happy to oblige, is refusing ANY supervision to the crucial electoral process coming on December 6.
Friday, October 16, 2015
Weil sums up the Venezuelan situation
Cartoonist Weil publishes an extraordinary cartoon (and he has quite a few of them!)
In the background the symbol of the corrupt regime gangs fighting against each other for political control through colectivos, grenades, etc...
Further in front petty thieves stealing in hunger whatever they can (toilet paper, for example, how can that be any more pathetic?).
In front two items, paupers fighting over a chicken while someone is dead on ground through hunger, crime, whatever....
There you have it, Venezuela today. I am impressed.
In the background the symbol of the corrupt regime gangs fighting against each other for political control through colectivos, grenades, etc...
Further in front petty thieves stealing in hunger whatever they can (toilet paper, for example, how can that be any more pathetic?).
In front two items, paupers fighting over a chicken while someone is dead on ground through hunger, crime, whatever....
There you have it, Venezuela today. I am impressed.
Sunday, October 04, 2015
2015: the lost year
It has been three weeks without posting. But in all truth what should have I written about?
Friday, September 18, 2015
Economic electoral planning: institutional bachaqueo and printing money
The election date approaches. Whether these will be held is irrelevant, the regime needs to prepare for it no matter what. From my sources I get the following tidbits as to how the regime is planning to distribute goodies to try to buy votes.
The "bachaqueo" is bringing some political dividends to the regime, at least from those who can actually profit from it. Bachaqueo for those late in the game is a Venezuelan variety of black market (1). Those that can stand in long lines because they are out of a job buy they share and resell part of it at significant markups. It becomes particularity lucrative when: 1) you belong to an information network from cashiers to truck drivers and storage personnel who can warn you that X will arrive at Z before the neighborhood hoi polloi knows about it, thus the bachaqueros are first in line before supplies disappear; 2) you know someone high ranked in the store or the Nazional Guards on duty to avoid riots and they let you get out with more than your share; 3) you belong to a network well organized with bus and motorbike drivers that can carry you fast from one line to another line so in one day you may be able to stand in line at 2 or 3 locations, and rack it in; and of course 4) you belong to a narco-military-mafia organization that do not even own a store and gives you a certain amount at mark up for you to mark it up further. (2)
The "bachaqueo" is bringing some political dividends to the regime, at least from those who can actually profit from it. Bachaqueo for those late in the game is a Venezuelan variety of black market (1). Those that can stand in long lines because they are out of a job buy they share and resell part of it at significant markups. It becomes particularity lucrative when: 1) you belong to an information network from cashiers to truck drivers and storage personnel who can warn you that X will arrive at Z before the neighborhood hoi polloi knows about it, thus the bachaqueros are first in line before supplies disappear; 2) you know someone high ranked in the store or the Nazional Guards on duty to avoid riots and they let you get out with more than your share; 3) you belong to a network well organized with bus and motorbike drivers that can carry you fast from one line to another line so in one day you may be able to stand in line at 2 or 3 locations, and rack it in; and of course 4) you belong to a narco-military-mafia organization that do not even own a store and gives you a certain amount at mark up for you to mark it up further. (2)
Monday, August 24, 2015
Will it hold?
It seems that creating an unjustified "state of emergency" at the border with Colombia has accelerated talk of regime "change". We have Miguel, or a nice article at the FT (subscription) by Daniel Lansberg or a dire "self-coup" from Oppenheimer at the Miami Herald. Readers of this blog should not be surprised as I have expressed often my doubts at the elections on December 6 would be actually held, or when describing how the country was collapsing steadily.
Rather than going into the macro thing covered extensively elsewhere, let me go first into the micro stuff.
Rather than going into the macro thing covered extensively elsewhere, let me go first into the micro stuff.
Friday, August 21, 2015
Brief electoral report
This is not an electoral report. As I have announced weeks ago, this blog will not cover the coming elections for a variety of reasons. Still, when I read all of the nonsense or wishful thinking elsewhere, I suppose that I feel compelled from time to time to remind people that treating the parliamentary election of December as if it were a normal election is, well, close to idiotic. In other words discussing in detail the intrigues inside the MUD of PSUV is close to irrelevant. Discussing the treachery of the regime is close to redundant at this point. Speculating on the final outcome with polls and calculations is only marginally productive unless one places the comment on the consequences of the vote rather than the actual results.
Thus in no particular order a few talking points, for lack of a more descriptive title.
Thus in no particular order a few talking points, for lack of a more descriptive title.
Friday, June 26, 2015
Recovering Venezuela is going to be more difficult than what most people think
There are reckless souls in the opposition that claim that a mere change in the National Assembly and a couple of years of decent public administration are enough to turn around the Venezuelan Economic crisis.
I think such talk is simply reckless even if its intentions are merely electoral. At this point stirring false hopes is a deadly undertaking for whichever side. At least chavismo being in full denial mode is pretending that there are only minor problems that are the fault of foreign interests, period. It does not help them much but it cannot hurt them much either compared to its other problems.
I think such talk is simply reckless even if its intentions are merely electoral. At this point stirring false hopes is a deadly undertaking for whichever side. At least chavismo being in full denial mode is pretending that there are only minor problems that are the fault of foreign interests, period. It does not help them much but it cannot hurt them much either compared to its other problems.
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
In victory we eat
This morning finally Leopoldo Lopez, reported not being able to stand up anymore, has let it be known that he ended his hunger strike and asked that others end their own as well. Too many are heralding the calling for elections a great victory for Lopez, but I beg to differ. A victory it is but it lays elsewhere, associated to Leopoldo Lopez, make no mistake.
Let's look at the "electoral victory" first.
Let's look at the "electoral victory" first.
Monday, June 22, 2015
Was Leopoldo Lopez hunger strike discussed in Port au Prince?
As I was sitting to write this entry where one of my intentions was to pat myself in the back, I run through a just out the presses article by Jackson Diehl from the WaPo. To all what has been discussed lately about the (in)famous meeting between Shannon and Cabello Diehl adds the lone noteworthy data:
the U.S. diplomacy has a modest goal: to prevent López’s death. Shannon told Cabello the continuance of the dialogue between the two governments depended on López remaining alive and being convinced to end his hunger strike, sources said.
the U.S. diplomacy has a modest goal: to prevent López’s death. Shannon told Cabello the continuance of the dialogue between the two governments depended on López remaining alive and being convinced to end his hunger strike, sources said.
Wednesday, June 10, 2015
De genocidas y huelgas de hambre
Pienso que ya está bien, que ya Leopoldo y Daniel y los otros presos políticos tienen que terminar una huelga de hambre que logró lo poco que podría lograr. Si es que logró algo en verdad, que esta por verse.
Vamos a hablar claro. Estamos frente a un gobierno que ya se puede calificar de genocida; y cuidado que a través de este blog siempre me he rehusado a usar una palabra tan monstruosa, tan cargada de peso histórico. Es casi una dignificación perversa de atribuir esta palabra al patético elenco criminal que hoy nos desgobierna.
Pero este gobierno ha evolucionado hacia eso, hacia una mentalidad donde no es pecado para ellos eliminar físicamente los que estorban, o sencillamente eliminar los que no gustan.
Empezaron con la lista de Tascon, un apartheid moderno que todavía el mundo civilizado no ha condenado debidamente, a su gran deshonra. Esa lista del odio no solamente se sigue usando después de 10 años pero ha sido constantemente perfeccionada a través de los listados de las Misiones bolivarianas y flujos electorales a nivel de comunas y gremios. De allí se dividió el país nítidamente entre un ellos y nosotros, entre patriotas y apátridas.
Luego empezaron los crímenes. El primer crimen fue el de dejar morir a Brito por su reclamo de tierras. Pero también ha sido un crimen dejar salir una generación de profesionales al exilio, un crimen contra el país, un asesinato al futuro. Como fue un crimen permitir que el trafico de droga se convierta en rutina, que convierta al país en un narcoestado desencadenado la sangría en los barrios que nos dan una matazón con niveles de país en guerra. Todos, todos eso crímenes son imputables a Hugo Chávez pero los pagarán otros.
Pero el ultimo paso hacia el genocidio es la propia indiferencia a la muerte de los inocentes, cuando los poderosos tienen otros menesteres que atender y no se pueden preocupar en buscar siquiera alguna excusa. No es que Hugo Chávez se preocupase en buscar excusas para sus crímenes, pero la repartición de dinero acallaba la conciencia de muchos, incluyendo muchos opositores.
Venezuela ha llegado a este punto revelador porque ahora faltan las medicinas y el gobierno no permite que lleguen. Ya hay enfermedades que son criticas y el gobierno prefiere que se mueran todos en vez de permitir que se abra un resquicio para que por lo menos algunos puedan importar lo que puedan. Eso se niega porque seria admitir que 15 años de gestión han sido errados, que las arcas están vacías. Pero los genocidas son todos, sin excepción, seres cegados por el orgullo y no se abrirán compuertas. Los jerarcas pueden salir del país a hacer lo que quieran para su salud pero nosotros venezolanos todos estamos condenados a la indiferencia absoluta a nuestras necesidades por parte del gobierno, muriendo en una falsa igualdad, sin que le duela a nadie. Solo se salvarán los que el gobierna decida que se salven.
Llamemos esto "genocidio del siglo XXI".
En toda franqueza ¿alguien en verdad espera que el gobierna evitará que se mueran los huelguistas de hambre? Lo digo con toda responsabilidad, estoy seguro que muchos en el gobierno desean la muerte de Leopoldo y Daniel. No les importa las consecuencias. Por esto le pido a todos los que están en huelga de hambre que por favor desistan, que busquen otros medios de lucha, que con genocidas no hay chantaje que funcione.
Vamos a hablar claro. Estamos frente a un gobierno que ya se puede calificar de genocida; y cuidado que a través de este blog siempre me he rehusado a usar una palabra tan monstruosa, tan cargada de peso histórico. Es casi una dignificación perversa de atribuir esta palabra al patético elenco criminal que hoy nos desgobierna.
Pero este gobierno ha evolucionado hacia eso, hacia una mentalidad donde no es pecado para ellos eliminar físicamente los que estorban, o sencillamente eliminar los que no gustan.
Empezaron con la lista de Tascon, un apartheid moderno que todavía el mundo civilizado no ha condenado debidamente, a su gran deshonra. Esa lista del odio no solamente se sigue usando después de 10 años pero ha sido constantemente perfeccionada a través de los listados de las Misiones bolivarianas y flujos electorales a nivel de comunas y gremios. De allí se dividió el país nítidamente entre un ellos y nosotros, entre patriotas y apátridas.
Luego empezaron los crímenes. El primer crimen fue el de dejar morir a Brito por su reclamo de tierras. Pero también ha sido un crimen dejar salir una generación de profesionales al exilio, un crimen contra el país, un asesinato al futuro. Como fue un crimen permitir que el trafico de droga se convierta en rutina, que convierta al país en un narcoestado desencadenado la sangría en los barrios que nos dan una matazón con niveles de país en guerra. Todos, todos eso crímenes son imputables a Hugo Chávez pero los pagarán otros.
Pero el ultimo paso hacia el genocidio es la propia indiferencia a la muerte de los inocentes, cuando los poderosos tienen otros menesteres que atender y no se pueden preocupar en buscar siquiera alguna excusa. No es que Hugo Chávez se preocupase en buscar excusas para sus crímenes, pero la repartición de dinero acallaba la conciencia de muchos, incluyendo muchos opositores.
Venezuela ha llegado a este punto revelador porque ahora faltan las medicinas y el gobierno no permite que lleguen. Ya hay enfermedades que son criticas y el gobierno prefiere que se mueran todos en vez de permitir que se abra un resquicio para que por lo menos algunos puedan importar lo que puedan. Eso se niega porque seria admitir que 15 años de gestión han sido errados, que las arcas están vacías. Pero los genocidas son todos, sin excepción, seres cegados por el orgullo y no se abrirán compuertas. Los jerarcas pueden salir del país a hacer lo que quieran para su salud pero nosotros venezolanos todos estamos condenados a la indiferencia absoluta a nuestras necesidades por parte del gobierno, muriendo en una falsa igualdad, sin que le duela a nadie. Solo se salvarán los que el gobierna decida que se salven.
Llamemos esto "genocidio del siglo XXI".
En toda franqueza ¿alguien en verdad espera que el gobierna evitará que se mueran los huelguistas de hambre? Lo digo con toda responsabilidad, estoy seguro que muchos en el gobierno desean la muerte de Leopoldo y Daniel. No les importa las consecuencias. Por esto le pido a todos los que están en huelga de hambre que por favor desistan, que busquen otros medios de lucha, que con genocidas no hay chantaje que funcione.
Sunday, May 24, 2015
Leopoldo Lopez shows us what a selfie should be all about
Leopoldo Lopez from his jail in Ramo Verde has managed to sneak out a video where he calls for a massive protest next Saturday 30th. While himself and Ceballos start a hunger strike. Let's watch the video first:
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
The good news bad news silly game
Before I am accused of being once again misleading, there is no good news in Venezuela, even if Diosdado were to be taken in chains today a la Noriega. The country is far too advanced in its decomposition for such an event to be positive on the spot. Witness of that are those people that still manage to bemoan that it is a mistake, that bothering Diosdado with such "attacks" only strengthen chavismo just when finally, just now, really, this time is the one, no kidding, we were going to win elections and reverse the whole thing. It is not that some people never learn, it is that they do not want to learn...
Friday, May 15, 2015
VN&V will not cover the coming legislative elections in Venezuela
Now that I may have gotten your attention, this is not entirely true. But what is true is that it is not worth my time covering elections which are a fraud on so many levels, from so many sides. And yet vote we must.
First, to make things clear, it is not that I am not up to task, 5 years ago my predictions went quite close to the mark, to two seats from the actual result. The prediction gathered out of the regime gerrymandering huge advantage and assorted bonus was on the mark. We know the consequences of that vote.
But then I had material to work on. If previous electoral results were not reliable they still could be used to establish trends. If pollsters were weak and underfunded, and even questionable, they still could be used for trends. There were independent papers so you could sense the mood. Regional papers in particular were useful for those who were not Caracas navel gazers. I even had some contacts.
All of this is gone.
First, to make things clear, it is not that I am not up to task, 5 years ago my predictions went quite close to the mark, to two seats from the actual result. The prediction gathered out of the regime gerrymandering huge advantage and assorted bonus was on the mark. We know the consequences of that vote.
But then I had material to work on. If previous electoral results were not reliable they still could be used to establish trends. If pollsters were weak and underfunded, and even questionable, they still could be used for trends. There were independent papers so you could sense the mood. Regional papers in particular were useful for those who were not Caracas navel gazers. I even had some contacts.
All of this is gone.
Monday, February 23, 2015
El llegadero entry post
UPDATE 3
Too many things have happened since I posted last on February 2. No point recapping it all. Then again people consult blogs more for interpretation and opinion than news. At least this is what I do. Google News does a fine job to keep you up to date (though not on Venezuela as official media is now so dense that it is hard to fish out real news #GoogleFail).
Too many things have happened since I posted last on February 2. No point recapping it all. Then again people consult blogs more for interpretation and opinion than news. At least this is what I do. Google News does a fine job to keep you up to date (though not on Venezuela as official media is now so dense that it is hard to fish out real news #GoogleFail).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)