A way out for Venezuela: the post Duque election effect

The time has come to discuss what could be done about the Venezuelan narko kleptokracy. And the election of Ivan Duque in Colombia today does affect the possible outcomes.

At the Colombian border, with the symbolic barrier, from left to right: ex president Pastrana,
with hat; ex president Uribe, hat in hand;  Marta Lucia Ramirez, the new vice president of
Colombia and on the Venezuelan side Maria Corina Machado.  The A+ list
of the democratic Latin American right. Piñera of Chile is in thought on that picture. May 14.

A ¡NO! for reason

I have read so many idiots in the last three hours that I am forced to write about the Colombien plebiscite of today. Never mind that it will also have consequences for Venezuela.

When you go on vacation to Cartagena and think you
have been whitewashed by your travel agent

I heard "Brexit again! Trump next!"
I read the NYT being shocked
I see people wondering how could Colombians be so stupid, ungrateful, war loving folks!?

So let´s bring some of that hubris down, shall we?

First, the idiots doing amalgam. Today's vote in Colombian is not remotely close to the conditions of Brexit or Trump. Colombia is a, partially, warn torn country where everyone knows first or second hand the consequences of decades of a FARC guerrilla cum narko organization. Most people who voted in Colombia knew full well what they were voting for even if using the same facts led to different choices. With Brexit and Trump we have people that do not have enough problems in their real lives and are thus looking for new ones.

Maduro 3 Santos 0?

So Santos just won his reelection. I am not too optimistic for a good second term. So many things can go wrong when you have such a false start for a very complicated process with a neighbor that wants nothing better but you to fail.  The more so when the neighbors seems to be scoring several unexpected goals, a little bit like the hefty surprise victory of Colombia over Greece yesterday by 3-0.

Chavez and Uribe in French

So I went ahead and wrote on the fast in French a summary of the recent Colombia Venezuela spat, at the leftist central of Agoravox.  It is important to note that even if in a few hours I received more than 100 comments finding different ways to insult me, the editors know better than caving in to this hysterical French far left and keep publishing "controversial" articles.

Be nice, if you read French visit, register, vote for the article and even leave a comment in Spanish or English.  You will have the pleasure to read briefly thereafter a reply from my critics that I am bringing in my empire paid chorus, or something of the sort :)

¿Unas razones para la "intromisión" de Colombia en los asuntos de Venezuela?

Sobre la ruptura de las relaciones con Colombia despues de la sesión de la OEA este jueves me han fascinado los distintos comentarios,  sean los insensatos y violentos por parte de Cilia Flores, presidenta de la Asamblea Nazional de Venezuela, o de algún otro insensato comeflor, que se pierde en tecnicismos de que si los procedimientos de la OEA no fueron seguidos, de que si era la misma vieja historia repetida. Y se me ocurrió que casi todo el mundo no ve el bosque detrás del árbol. Lo que ocurrió ayer en Washington fue Colombia notificándole al mundo que una tragedia se está gestando en Venezuela y que no están dispuestos a asumir el costo solos.

Empecemos por tres puntos básicos.

Why Colombia did get so personal yesterday at the OAS?

I have been fascinated by the different comments coming from everywhere, be it the insensate and violent ones from Cilia Flores, chair of the Venezuelan Nazional Assembly, or be they from some insensate "come flores" who wallow on technicalities that the OAS procedures were not kosher and that it was the same old story anyway.  And it occurred to me that pretty much everyone is missing the forest for the tree.  What happened yesterday in Washington was Colombia serving notice to the world that a tragedy is brewing in Venezuela and that they are not willing to shoulder the cost alone.

Let's start by three basics here.

An Uribe Santos spat behind the latest citation of Venezuela to the OAS?

UPDATED.  Do not count me in those who think the latest initiative of Uribe in bringing Venezuela to account for its harboring of FARC terrorists inside its borders is the sure sign of a rift between Uribe and his protege president elect Santos.  The OAS session to deal with the accusations will be held next Thursday and one would think that sparks will fly.  But thinking that this is the main show would also be a mistake.

Is Mockus the best thing since sliced bread? (UPDATED)

I think not.  I have been an early supporter of Mockus in the blogosphere but, as I was afraid, the enthusiasm he has generated make the crowds forgive him too many mistakes so far.

Alas! Antanas Mockus will never be president of Venezuela!

The one nobody expected!

As a supplement of my previous post where the decision of Colombia's government to ask Colombians to avoid travel to Venezuela was discussed, I could have included the latest Colombian polls, had I known them.  The sudden rise of the Green candidate, Antanas Mockus, to the second spot in polls is throwing the election up in the air, and might be explaining some weird decisions in Bogota.  Nobody really knows what could happen in a second round ballot between Uribe's candidate, Santos, and the new darling of the green/independent vote, Mockus.

No one ever considered such a run off, always assuming that it would be between the Uribista candidate and either the Conservative (most likely) or the old Liberals or even the left Polo.  In the second round Santos was expected to breeze through, the only question here was if Uribe coat tails would be enough to carry him on the first round.  They are not.

Noemi Sanin, the Conservative candidate is sinking fast as conservatives seem to rally around Santos, though not in droves as some seem to find their way to Mockus for the time being.  Why? After all, Uribe and the Conservatives won a parliamentary majority in last months elections.  How come suddenly everyone is scrambling to confront the sudden Mockus surge?

Colombia to its citizens: do not go to Venezuela! Bonus: Samper's idiocy

In what is becoming a farcical vaudeville, dead serious but farcical nevertheless, the Colombian government issued a traveler advisory against Venezuela, a first for us and probably a first between South American countries.  Let's just say that a travel advisory warning between Venezuela and Colombia ten years ago would have been as unthinkable as a travel advisory warning between Canada and the US today.  If anything because nearly impossible to enforce.

In Colombia the post Uribe period starts, with a big thanks to Chavez

Colombia voted for its new Congress yesterday.  According to El Tiempo special page it looks like the right has an outright majority in the Senate and that with semi right parties it will be holding quite a comfortable lead.  The more so that the potential opposition will be chopped up between the Liberales, Verdes and Polo Democatico.  The only parties that would try eventually, with great care, to reconcile Colombia with Chavez, Polo Democratico and Liberal, apparently will not reach 25% of the vote together.

Where democracy resides

It is not in Venezuela, it is in Colombia.

I just watched on TV the reading of the Colombian High Court ruling saying that the law to call for a referendum that would allow for a third election for Uribe is not valid because it did not follow the rules for its elaboration.  It is not a judgement on whether Uribe deserves reelection, just an observation that no matter what, a president is not above the law and he must follow the rules.  Now as I am typing this there is the Uribe reply, also on Globovision, which is a concession speech of sort, with his call to follow the rule of law and that he would work for Colombia no matter where he is.

Cancun secrets

 No, this is not going to be about the spat between Uribe and Chavez, where Chavez was exposed and humiliated once again but where Uribe did not look too good either.  The surprise here was not Chavez trying to grab headlines, that is about the only thing he can do these days, for which he is willing to do anything, as silly as it might be.  No, the surprise was that a normally cool Uribe lost it.  Or did he?

2010 for Latin America (the failure of Lula?)

This map lifted from the Economist will do fine to introduce a Latin American forecast of 2010 because it explains a lot. If you observe well, all of Hispanic America is in trouble, besides Costa Rica, Uruguay and Cuba (then again, how could trouble start in totalitarian Cuba?). Flanking that zone of probably social unrest there is the US and Brazil. This last country has decided to take advantage of the relative USA weakness to make a gamble and establish it area of influence across the sub continent.

For quite a while I have been writing about Brazil imperialism, US withdrawal, and such things. But when we look at the result of Honduras elections, not the vote count but the reactions around, it seems that suddenly a few cards are falling. The clearer hint comes probably from Uribe deciding to recognize the new Lobo government while a few yards away at the Lisbon summit Lula kept saying that there is no way Brazil will recognize the Honduras vote, just as he was fresh from receiving Ahmadinejad who has killed infinitely more people than Micheletti, and quite deliberately at that. At least on a morality point of view Lula would do better to shut his big mouth.

You never know who you really work for

Just a little note to all those believers in Chavez, those ready to justify anything he says or does: you might be working for Uribe. Indeed, taking advantage of the recent events where Chavez looked like a real danger for Colombia Uribe seems to have decided to seek a third term. Until now I had the firm hope that he would not do it, not become just another caudillo like Chavez (though Uribe IS efficient and has his trains run on time, so to speak).

Two notes:

Chavez and Uribe of course benefit from each other to strengthen their power at home. In that regard they are two peas of a pod.

For the record: although there is many to admire in Uribe I want to state clearly and unambiguously that were he to run again for a third term, it could end up a disaster for Colombia. Right now if Uribe retires from executive life he can still have a very productive political career elsewhere and maybe even come back to the presidency in 8 years. Colombia cities will name and rename a lot of stuff on his name. But 4 more years? He might be hated by all, as Chavez will end up being hated by all even if I do not live to see it.

I am against Uribe reelection and will not support it even though I am aware he has a claim to have been one of the best if not the best president of Colombia. And I am saying that without regard to my conviction that there should not be any reelection for any president, Honduras style. It is just that the way things are in Colombia Uribe could lose all he built if he persists in trying to remain in office. The true test of political success is that your programs continue without you.

-The end-

UNASUR in Quito: another Chavez defeat?

So Correa assumed office today with a 40% approval rating, a ten points loss since his reelection, with an intractable conflict with Colombia, economic troubles, a break in his coalition, a dollarized economy that limits his populism and more. The only think he could come up with was a promise of more radicalization of his government and an attack on the local media. Let's not call it a regime yet, as we must give it the benefit of the doubt that a genuine new constitution will be put to work in Ecuador. But considering the history of the country we can already start wondering whether Correa will finish his term...

But I digress, the real news was UNASUR.

As we were all expecting yesterday, ALBA et al were going to try to gang up on Uribe. They tried but they did not succeed, even though Chavez broke protocol (imagine that!) and went on a speech on the "winds of war". In the end the UNASUR summit, the wanna-be NATO cum OAS for South America, failed to produce the Colombian condemnation that Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador sought so desperately. And I use the word "desperate" deliberately.

Not only that but president Lula said that dialog should be long and extensive, that the US should be included and that folks should be willing to hear hard truths. I guess that last part was meant for Chavez more than for the US and Uribe, you know....

"People will have to listen to hard truths, on the contrary UNASUR risks becoming a club of pals encircled by enemies from everywhere" [My translation]

Preliminary conclusions:

1) Uribe's tour last week seems to have been way more successful than anticipated, at least by Chavez

2) Chavez convenient (imagined?) Colombian invasion of yesterday did not help his cause. Nor did his drama queen speech. He did not get anything he wanted at Quito except a song a dance that evening by Correa's supporters.

3) Lula is taking seriously UNASUR and as yours truly told you, Lula knows that without Colombia, the second army of the subcontinent in number and quite likely the number one in readiness, UNASUR is meaningless. You can bet that he will do his utmost to force Colombia and Chavez to reach some understanding

4) Last but not necessarily least though it is too early to tell, the absence of Uribe and his foreign minister (Colombia only sent a vice minister) does not seem to have hurt him much. Within a very few weeks a new summit will be held possibly in Argentina where these questions will be discussed. On that respect the show of Chavez at Quito probably helped immensely Uribe: the BBC reports that at declaration time all presidents looked ill at ease. Chavez needs to learn that at international meeting serious heads of state are not keen to gang up on the absent unless the absent is a totally rogue regime which is very far from being the case of Colombia. Or put it in a more pedestrian way, Chavez needs to learn that international summits are not managed like a bully would manage the school yard or a boot camp.

But not is smooth sailing for Uribe, far from it. He gained a nice respite but he still has lots of work to do. At least now Chavez will be less of a pain in the neck, confined to cheap vociferation from Caracas.

Meanwhile it is not getting any better for Chavez in Honduras even though he paraded Zelaya in Quito all day long. Obama is now on the record saying that Chavez attitude in Honduras is an hypocrisy. Here are his words:

"The same critics who say that the United States has not intervened enough in Honduras are the same people who say that we're always intervening and the Yankees need to get out of Latin America"

"If these critics think that it's appropriate for us to suddenly act in ways that in every other context they consider inappropriate, then I think what that indicates is that maybe there's some hypocrisy involved in their -- their approach to U.S.-Latin American relations"

Canadian Prime Minster Stephen Harper supported the statements made by Mr. Obama, suggesting that "If I were an American, I would be really fed up with this kind of hypocrisy."

"You know, the United States is accused of meddling except when it's accused of not meddling," Harper said.

Now observe that Harper is a "right wing" politician and Obama a "left wing", at least in the reductionist mind of some and yet Harper came with this strong support. That is what is expected from true allies, from statesmen that are able to look a little bit further than what plays at home. It also seems that Obama paused briefly before using the H word. I love it....

Definitely, yet another rotten day for Chavez....


-The end-

Chavez anti Uribe (and anti Colombia) activities

Let's not get dizzy by the constant somersaults that Chavez gives on Colombia. The fact of the matter is that his goal is clear, to remove the current system to place there a system where he and the FARC would have a say. Or some crazy stuff like that. The fact of the matter is that there is a deliberate strategy to sabotage Uribe and prop the FARC. If Chavez has to make such somersaults it is because Uribe sees sharply through Chavez and counters him effectively.

Yesterday Chavez held, and pay for I am willing to bet anything on it, a "conversatorio" on the Colombian situation.

A "conversatorio" is the artifact used by chavismo to hold reunions that they should not be holding publicly by disguising them as "a conversation", a small talk on topics that should never be associated with a government. An informal symposium if you wish, something that does neither has the blessing nor the criticism of the power in place. But as you can see by yourself after you click on the image to the right to see it in full, even those forms are not respected as Chavez cannot resist appearing on top of them all. Unbelievable!!!!!!

As you read through the list of guest, lead by Piedad Cordoba, and as you read the motives you realize one thing: all of these Colombians, no matter what their good intentions might be, SHOULD NOT BE HOLDING SUCH A MEETING IN CARACAS!!!! They are aligning themselves with Chavez at a time their country is being attacked by the host. And that this conversatorio is to fight the invasion of the US in Colombia is no excuse. They could hold it in Bogota, you know. I doubt the government there would break in the room to arrest them as many people are expressing in Colombia their objections on the US/Colombia deal.

You can be free to draw your own conclusions but as far as I know if I were myself to attend such an event in Washington I would probably be investigated as I arrive at the Caracas airport and accused at least in Aporrea of high treason.

And of course, in case you need further proof about Chavez involvement in Colombia internal matters, this paid advertisement is yet another piece to add to the inculpating dossier. With the bills paid to have all of these people come to Caracas.

-The end-

Colombia cornered?

With the recent breathless events in Colombia I think it is time that we review a little bit the situation. And as it is usually the case it is best to start with a map. Courtesy of Google Earth I made the one below, which might not be the prettiest one for sure but more useful than anything else I could find in the net.

The situation BEFORE the latest Venezuela/Colombia break up

Three things before I start: 1) I am not making any judgment call or pretending to favor one position over the other, all what follows is a statement of fact or close to it; 2) some things I will write are not P.C. and would never be said in staid diplomatic circles, but you can always try to prove me wrong and 3) I will not put links because there would be too many links to add; read this as a tall tale if you wish or trust me, it is up to you.

The fact of the matter is that Colombia today has every right to feel like a cornered country; not by a lack of friends, it does have some, but the countries around its vital borders are now ruled by avowed enemies not only of Uribe but of any Colombian government that will not welcome the FARC as a ruling partner.

The red flat arrows represent these countries actively wishing for a change of regime in Colombia and taking all measures they can take to that effec,t short of open warfare. Venezuela, Colombia and Nicaragua now are in open confrontation while Cuba still with official links to Colombia is the evil machinery behind all of this all. More than Venezuela, for its human value Colombia would be the golden fleece of Castrism; Colombia is a complicated country to attack militarily so a good base from where to launch attacks, only a step away from the Panama Canal and Venezuela's oil.

To compensate these un-friends Colombia has very little. Brazil is a neutral country at best. But Brazil is empire building and it is not in its interest that any Spanish speaking country develops enough to become one day a challenge. In XXI century "empires" is not understood as actual territorial conquest but as areas of infleucne where the people in hit are just too linked to the main power to dare go against it. The only country that could do so one day is Colombia, not by its size but by its land a climate that can support a consequent population, its relative better education and its privileged strategic position: no matter how strong Brazil becomes, as long as Colombia is prosperous and at the center of a sensible alliance (with or without the US) Brazil will never be able be the US of South America. Bolivar already anticipated this since his dream of Gran Colombia was the ideal wedge between the inevitable rise of the US and Brazil. Thus the wavering yellow line at its border, a relatively safe border for Colombia just because Bogota and Brasilia are so distant. That yellow line could turn red at any time.

In front of all this Colombia has only two friendly neighbors. Peru is far and ethnically different enough that there is no significant rivalry there. Besides Peru is much more mired in its Southern flank instability. Currently both countries have different political ruling groups but they share one thing, the belief that free markets, with some control, are the best way to dig from underdevelopment. As such Colombia and Peru have shown a rather healthy economic grow in the recent decade, and generally warm relations.

Panama is small and a small piece of Colombia to begin with. But it has become one of the playgrounds of rich Colombians who can hide there part of their fortunes. Adding to this that the border is a very inhospitable jungle, there is no hard feelings left. With the new political turn to the right in Panama we can even expect a closer relation. Costa Rica is enemy with no one but probably prefers Colombia to Nicaragua or Venezuela. And we can expect a post Zelaya Honduras to establish warm relations with Colombia: if there is a country that understands the need to get rid of chavismo/FARC at all costs is Colombia.

Now that I hope the context is established let's look at what happened in recent days.

The FARC rockets

The trigger was disarmingly simple: the Colombian Army found in a FARC camp small rocket launchers made in Sweden and sold to Venezuela before Chavez became president. Chavez this week finally explained the reason these rockets found their way to the FARC: they robbed them in 1995 or something like that. Not very convincing, and curiously pointless. More important, the explanations came AFTER he suspended relations with Colombia and after he expressed unambiguously that he wanted to stop commercial deals with Colombia. In other words, that he did things in the reverse order proves that his intention all along was to find an excuse to break with Colombia once and for all.

The reasons for this sudden radicalization can be found in the internal situation of Venezuela where Chavez got three very worrisome polls this week. All conclude that a reelection in 2012 is looking uphill with three long years to go where the only hope is a return of oil to the 100 USDso as to bring him out of the financial ditch he has fallen. As the fascist-like regime he now presides Chavez resorts to well worn strategies such as crude nationalist baiting.

But the reason can also be found in the complete dossier that Colombian intelligence has established on the Chavez government. If in Venezuela the press is a little bit demure, or lazy, in doing the necessary inquiring, when you read the Colombian one you can see by yourself the amount of details exposed, with names of Venezuelan officials collaborating with the FARC, dates, locales, etc, etc... In other words Chavez knows that he cannot deal with the charges and prefers to attribute them to an hostile country, even if he needs to invent that hostility.

The US bases in Colombia

That was the excuse for Chavez to try to turn the table around and put the spot light on Colombia. It certainly would work at first.

The reason why it could work is the that there is a knee jerk reaction in South America against the US. This reflex is understandable considering our past relations. However besides the Panama intervention to justifiably remove Noriega there has been really not much to complain from the US since the Carter years. We are talking now 35 years out of the 140 the US Empire has arguably existed.

But how can you expect Brazil's Lula and Chile's Bachelet, who personally suffered greatly in their earlier years of the consequences of US intervention in South America politics to remain cool when Colombia announced that the US base dismantled in Ecuador will come back as several small units in Colombia? It was easy for Chavez to focus the attention on that but it will be more difficult to keep it.

Why the bases? On a drug war logic it is certainly a good thing. After all now the Colombian army has demonstrated its strength and serious observers know that the Colombian military will not be there to serve coffee to US officials. Both sides benefit from their joint effort: the US on its war on drugs and Colombia on its war on terrorist FARC and ELN.

Interestingly the folks who are opposing that are not really using the sound argument that the US should start by putting order at home, punishing consumers first, before they go around bombing out drug traffickers who today are an easily renewable commodity. Folks prefer to play the anti US card.

It seems that in Colombia public opinion not only is backing the new bases, with the appropriate conditions, but also the tightening of relations with Venezuela. Because there is another logic here for the bases: Venezuela has become a very erratic regime, led by a violent man who has been demonstrated to support the FARC, and all sorts of other unsavory regimes. The Honduras open intervention was perhaps the last nail for Chavez Colombian coffin as it was clear how Chavez treats allies. Colombians are certainly not the folks to take up lightly mistreatment by Venezuelans, and even less by a vulgar military like Chavez when the Colombian ones express themselves so properly. That is why business guilds of Colombia told Uribe that they will find new markets because Colombia should not once again bow to Chavez. Something taken up by the Colombian Church and other sectors while some in the opposition are taking, in my opinion, the dangerous gamble of trying to patch up once again with Chavez.

Indeed, a lot of people do not understand that the reelection of Uribe has marked a permanent shift to the right in Colombia. The traditional Conservative Party has put itself behind Uribe as well as the right wing of the Liberal party. Colombia around Uribe has enjoyed a consensus sorely lacking for decades, coupled to a successful and durable economic growth and of course a verifiable pacification of the country. It seems that Uribe will not to commit the mistake of running for a third term. Placing at the helm yet another liberal right president such as Santos could usher another decade of stable government, and thus the possibility of the FARC finally negotiating a surrender in order to avoid a final wipe out.

Uribe is thus probably looking to the distant future and this is also an element that must be considered in his whirlwind tour of South America capitals.

Uribe's grand tour

Uribe has been spending a few hours in the following capitals, meeting all South American head of states and taking evenly sympathy or disapproval. Why is this significant even if on the surface Uribe might appear on the defensive?

First you must understand that Uribe is not discussing only the why of the bases in Colombia, a battle he knows very well he cannot win in today's environment. But he also knows that within two years there might be right wing victories in Chile, Uruguay, and maybe even Brazil, so Uribe is certainly playing for the long term, to better days and as the true statesman he is , Uribe is probably already working for his legacy and to ensure the success of his follower.

What Uribe is taking along is the dossier he has on Chavez, certainly the real reason of his stop over in hostile La Paz, to make sure Evo Morales knows what he is defending and the risks he is taking if he follows Chavez all the way through. Evo might anyway, he is too dependent on Chavez now, but Uribe will be able to say "I told you" and along the way strengthens the opposition to Evo without disrespecting him.

But that dossier of Chavez is also for the promoters of UNASUR, namely Brazil's Lula. UNASUR is mostly a Brazilian invention, something that would be a more effective OAS but without the US, a NATO of sorts where Brazil would occupy the center stage as the US occupies it in the NATO. In other words, UNASUR is the tool that Brazil counts on to become the king of the hill. Without Colombia UNASUR makes no sense. Uribe stop in Brasilia will be to tell Lula that unless he starts becoming more effective at controlling Chavez, unless UNASUR is a real protection instrument engaging for Colombia against he FARC, then Colombia will proceed with its next best option: a tight alliance with the US.

The threat is not empty. An increasingly beleaguered Democratic administration that is not finding its footing fast at home and outside might finally decide to cast its lot with Colombia as the only possible reliable ally with Mexico. Uribe is going to get its FTA even if it means distancing itself of its continenalt sector. Why? Only an FTA can free Colombia from its commercial ties with Venezuela and Ecuador, while at the same time making these two countries economical non entities. Barak Obama in fact seems to slowly understand this reality that he inherited. After all, the nice reception of Bush by Lula was more the one of a seller to his big customer, a way to show that Brazil was becoming a big player. Obama might be realizing this as he is drawing closer to Colombia, as the only way to avoid a fight with the inner cities that are his natural constituency: better give Colombia an FTA and help them on the drug war rather than doing at home what really needs to be done to stop drug consumption, such as putting to jail his leftist Hollywood friend or the black dealers of the ghetto. Real Politics at their crassest.

As for the first impression or Uribe's tour, it is clear that he has undone some of the Chavez damage. True, Evo did not budge and the dingbat at Buenos Aires is too stupid, too corrupt and too dependent on Chavez to even understand what is going on. But Brazil and Chile toned down. Brazil relative moderation after initial disapproval seems to indicate that Uribe's objective of telling Brazil that it needs to control Chavez if it wants UNASUR to succeed went through. We cannto expect Brazil to jeopradize its business in Venezuela for the sake of Colombia, but signs are promising that at least on FARC and drugs Brasilia might become less lenient with Chavez, remindign him, who knows, that after all Chavez did offer Venezuelan territory for Russian bases.

Next?

Things are so volatile already and Chavez is so mercurial lately that we can speculate from an incoming war with Venezuela to a patch up of things with an active role of UNASUR to end the FARC conflict. But there are two changes that seem to be taking place and to modify for the long term the way this chess game is played. It seems that Chavez this time means it, that he wants to wean himself from Colombia because he knows that the trade deficit in favor of Colombia will protect him less and less agaisnt the mounting evidence of his association with the FARC. Chavez is casting his lot, is jettisoning fast his democratic pretense, is cornered at home. He is about to make his final grab for final complete power Cuba style and 6 billion dollar purchases a year from Colombia is not going to help. Not to mention that once Chavez has installed the regime he has always wanted he will be forced to support the FARC more actively than what he does today, with all the risks this entails.

The second change mirrors the first one: in Colombia they have resigned themselves to a long Chavez tenure, and even if he falls tomorrow they visualize an unstable and unreliable Venezuela for at least a decade anyway. The consequence of Chavez will last until 2021, with him in power or not. Colombians have now the full dossier on the man and they fully know what he is able to do. But they also know that the Colombian economy has diversified, grown and solidified whereas the Venezuelan one is more dependent than ever on oil. Colombians now have the dangerous confidence of countries that know they can win wars, and easily, countries that know that time is on their side.

Let's hope that UNASUR and Brazil get the message and start bring Chavez down to heel before it is too late for us, his hostage victims.

Meanwhile let's not get into the easy gamesmanship to get against the bases or in favor: they are not going to solve anything in or out; and besides there are already plenty of US technician and military personnel in Colombia, a number that could be increased easily even if for political reasons Uribe withdrew the military bases. Even Obama chimed in to that effect, implying that the "bases" were not bases after all.

The US military bases or camps or spots are jsut an excuse. This is something else, probably a broad strategic move sped up when Zelaya was overthrown. The confrontation with the ALBA/Chavez has started, or rather the confrontation between representative democracy with occidental values and populist plebiscite driven regimes. That confrontation is unavoidable and the military bases are in fact a means of pressure to force countries to start choosing their side while damage can still be limited.

-The end-

Chavez defeat of the day

Maybe I am going to have to start a new feature to keep track of the increasing numbers of Chavez defeats on the foreign policy front. The news today is Lula visit to Colombia and its deep meaning about the position of Chavez in Latin America these days.

The picture above is of Lula, Uribe and Peru's Garcia with Shakira on the mic singing Colombia's national anthem. They were in Leticia, on the Colombian Amazon, signing agreements including their engagement to secure the Amazon basin. They also were there presiding some of Colombia Independence days events. A visibly emotive Lula even said a few verses. Lula spent two days in Colombia whereas he was in Venezuela for a very few hours, just to sign some business deal, probably cashing some of the money Chavez owed him.

You may draw your own conclusions, but there is one that is pretty clear: Uribe is now a Latin American leader, to the grief of a few I am sure.

-The end-

Uribe goes to Venezuela to blackmail Chavez

Many a press article is wondering about the sudden visit of Uribe to Venezuela, even if that one is to last barely 7 hours and will not take place in Caracas, far from excess prying eyes. Paraguana is a good place also to hide the real agenda behind a "technical" fake one. What all of these journalists are failing to understand is that this visit is not between two normal countries after a near war situation. If it were the case, after all the streams of insults that Chavez uttered this year there is no way that Uribe would visit. At best we would have a preliminary encounter at foreign ministry level to prepare a visit perhaps late, very late this year.

No, what we have here is a thug receiving his neighbor and his neighbor knowing that quite well about the thug and acting accordingly, blackmailing the thug, the only language these people understand. Uribe knows very well that war was never an option for Chavez, and if anything the latest brilliant hostage rescue set that point on granite.

What we are seeing here is one man moved by the interests of state and another one moved by trying to save his sorry ass. And if you still do not get it, some details next.

Uribe and Colombia State Interests

For every dollar Colombia buys to Venezuela, Venezuela must be buying these days around 5 dollars from Colombia. No matter how disliked Venezuela is these days in Colombia, over there they all know that it is impossible to move away, or to hope the other guy disappears by some magic. On the other hand the proximity of the Venezuelan market is a deity's send for business and they are more than willing to put up with whatever clown that sits at Miraflores.

Thus Colombia which is having a coherent development policy, at least compared to Venezuela, is using Venezuela to export its first industrial productions while it keeps building up its own technology and resources. Venezuela, who these days produces less and less, is only too happy to buy in order to keep social peace least people realize that we are about to starve any day disaster strikes us. Let me put it in other words, all proportions guarded: Colombia in a way is using Venezuela the way South Korea used Asia 40 years ago or Japan did 70 years ago. That is, the places where they learned international business and tried out their goods before peddling them to more demanding customers, read the US a few years inside an FTA.

Uribe comes here to demand Chavez to reopen the borders in a more reliable way, to become less mercurial about trade with Colombia, or else. It is not that Colombia wants open borders: a case can be made that Uribe has been trying lately to export less to Venezuela, not to depend so much from border trade. No, what Colombia and Uribe want is more predictability: if Venezuela wants to buy less, fine, but tell us how much less and for how long and stick to it.

To achieve this Uribe has the Reyes computers, the expressed support of Chavez to the FARC last December, a brilliant rescue and a now respected army, hemisphere wise, which is making many people nervous. Or why else do you think that Richard Lugar asked Brazil to mediate between the FARC and Uribe ASAP? It is not in the US interests for other people to realize what a good job they did in Colombia, nor for Uribe to start thinking he can do without the US. But I might be digressing some here...

Chavez and his very own interests

Once again I must remind readers that we are not discussing Venezuelan foreign policy or Venezuela's state interests: since 2004 the only interests that have directed Chavez foreign policy have been his own. Period. In fact it would be fair to set the date where Chavez foreign interests became dominant when the oil barrel hit the 30 USD mark.

Right now Chavez has a big problem: his whole strategy in Latin America is falling apart, and of his own doing. No one forced him to support the FARC at his State of the Union speech. No one forced him to pay off local Bolivian officers to support Evo Morales. No one forced him to buy billions of bad Ecuador and Argentina debt that are now questioned even by his ex finance ministers!

Another reason for his crashing project is that Chavez huge ego/hubris has removed any competent person around him on the foreign policy front; which is incidentally another reason why Uribe is coming himself: he knows full well that with Venezuela's joke of a Foreign Minister Maduro he will go nowhere. Uribe probably feels like if he needs to speak with a thug, well, let it be the Thugo Major.

So now, Chavez justly feeling cornered, losing sleep on account of the drop wise release of the infamous lap tops info, has decided to play nice. He wrote to the US to renew with the DEA which was kicked out unceremoniously not that long ago. He suggests to met with Uribe in Venezuela and pretends he is delighted when Uribe accepts. Now he is about to ask Uribe his price to silence the computers.

Indeed, 7 hours are plenty enough for the real agenda of the reunion....

-The end-