Wednesday, February 18, 2004

The USA is guilty of the April 11 2002 massacre
Dedicated to my US friends

Wednesday 18, February 2004

OK, so now that I have caught your attention.

Background

There has been rumors since April 2002 that the US was to some extent involved. The dislike of the US for the regime of Chavez, shared by many Venezuelans and other countries by the way, has never been questioned. From there to decide that the US directed all of the April events is a long stretch. Nobody can bring hundred of thousand of people in the streets if there are no local conditions that do motivate these people. Simply said, there are not enough dollars to bring half a million folks to the door of Miraflores Palace, not enough TV propaganda. After all, Chavez TV has been making so much propaganda that by now we should all be chavistas. People do have a mind of their own you know...

At any rate, rumors have remained rumors and UNTIL TODAY no hard proof of US direct intervention in the April 2002 events has been offered. And an ambassador visit to Carmona does not qualify as proof, incidentally.

Chavez breaks with the US

Note: I say Chavez breaks with the US, not Venezuela breaks with the US. No matter what I will write below, keep in mind that probably a couple of oil tankers will be leaving Venezuelan harbors to satisfy the gas guzzling SUV if North America.

Chavez used an unrelated event yesterday to accuse George Bush of all but being himself at Puente Llaguno on April 11. Going into the details of the speech is useless. This could have been uttered from anywhere. For example last Sunday Chavez was disqualifying from his Sunday prorating stand NGO of impeccable credentials that are now denouncing abuses of his administration. I mean, disqualifying COFAVIC is crazy, even in front of chavistas! COFAVIC, to name one of them, has made a career denouncing abuses of the "abject" regimes that preceded Chavez and probably indirectly contributed a lot to Chavez arrival to power. But Chavez is not known for his gratitude.

Translation

Very simple, Chavez feels the waters of the Recall Election rising. The signatures are in, the international opinion knows that. And the international representatives, namely the OAS, know very well that Chavez is trying to commit any fraud he can get away with it to cancel the election.

There is only one thing for Chavez to do: if the opposition does not want to engage in a frontal battle with him, as he hoped the opposition would do last Saturday, he will find the battle he is itching for elsewhere. Using speeches that include words such a "treason to the fatherland" is the last refuge of scoundrels.

The French had an expression for this kind of politics of desperation "La fuite en avant", the flight straight ahead, no matter what the consequences. Roberto Giusti does describe it quite well in today El Universal:

All of these episodes [meaning from the violence in Merida and Carabobo, to Lina Ron camping with her hosts in front of the CNE or the attack on Bush] concatenated in a sequence that lasted less than two weeks, account for the radicalization of the regime, of the final transformation of the Army and the National Guard into the praetorian guard of the Caribbean emperor, or at the very least into a militia at the service of one sect and one ideology.

My advice to the US, which I am sure is following my blog for to get its clues, is to let it go. Do not reply to Chavez directly and if you must say something, just let the White House spokesperson say something benign and non-committal (we will look into it, we will form a special committee, we will ask our ambassador). Worry not, Chavez needs your dollars and he will keep sending you all the oil you need. Anti globalization speeches stop at his wallet.

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