Thursday, January 31, 2019

Political image of the week: a new generation

The account Instagram of willymckey gave the following picture:

With Guaido, from left to right, Mejia, Pizarro and Gonzalez
You got to love this picture!

In 2007 there was a wave of protests against Chavez due to the closing of RCTV broadcast.  It was strong enough that it got Chavez his first major political defeat with the referendum loss of 2007.

The title of a post on May 31 2007  was "The week the Bolivarian Revolution died".  It died when Chavez lost the students of Venezuela, and thus the future.  Of course, I was writing about the symbolism of that week, full aware in that text that revolutions may see their ideals die but that does not necessarily stop them from dragging on for years.  I just did not expect that it would last another 11 years.

What is so intensely satisfying in that picture is that the 4 men started their career in the protest years of 2007 or whereabouts.

Today you can see them holding the main chairs of the National Assembly. They are the power rising, edging the old opposition class, and perhaps bringing down Maduro.

The history books will one day write on the "2007 generation", of these 4 but of several others jailed, exiled and more.  They are our future and it is thrilling.

Venezuela as moral bankruptcy of the left: seeking "dialogue" at this point is supporting Maduro

Before I go into this I need to clarify the meaning of some terms least people go all bonkers. What I call left is strictly people that are to the left of European social democrats or US liberals.  Myself I politically gravitate between social democrat /liberal and center. Though if the candidate is appealing I have crossed the line more than once.  One of my griefs against Reagan is that he turned decisively Liberal US into a dirty word. Liberals were the heirs of a great tradition of free enterprise and social responsibility; now rednecks toss around Liberal in the same sentence as Commie. And that has been so damaging...

The reason of this rant type of entry is that suddenly out of nowhere some people are proposing that the regime and the Venezuelan opposition "dialogue" again.  At this point in time offering that as the lone idea to bring peace to Venezuela is to mock's people's intelligence. And worse, it does give Maduro some time to recoup and charge again.

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Pushing the nuclear button

That is it, the nuclear option has been activated!

On January 6 I was writing
"...The regime will HAVE TO dissolve the NA because this one has the nuclear option. Already since 2015 the NA has warned the world that lending money to Maduro was at their own risks of never recovering it since the NA not having voted on new debt this one is not valid. Now it gets worse, since Maduro is not the recognized president, his signature will have no validity for any act. ANY."
The time has come.  But note that it is not the National Assembly that has pushed it, since it does not have ways to enforce it. It is the USA that has pushed it today.

Saturday, January 26, 2019

The eight day challenge: myths of snap elections

Yesterday the European Union, clearly in trouble in finding a single voice on how to deal with the current situation on Venezuela, emitted through some countries what was termed an "ultimatum" to Maduro. What I saw myself as a great tool form the EU generated a tweet storm of rejection that surprised me. Well, maybe not, the Venezuelan tweetosphere has become quite deleterious.  Perhaps that hysterical opposition expects the foreign legion to land tomorrow to free us?
So as a new public service I am going explain a few electoral details to understand the whys of the ultimatum details.

How does operate the European Union foreign policy

Friday, January 25, 2019

Misinformation galore wars: separating the wheat from the chaff

It has been raining political analysis, misplaced opinions, and whatnot, specially from the foreign press, leftists and what not who just learned how to place Venezuela on a map (if that much).

Let's take it in an occamish manner and answer a few questions (keeping in mind idiocies spewed from the left, the leftist press as the worst offender to one's intelligence!)).

Who is Juan Guaido?

Thursday, January 24, 2019

Servicio publico / Public service / Service public: RE:23/01/2019

RE. Juan Guaidó 23/01/2019
Servicio publico/Public service/Service public

Español: Escribo esta ayuda explicativa en tres idiomas para que usted pueda argumentar con cualquier ignorante que pretenda ser conocedor de Venezuela.
English: I am writing this so you can argue with any ignorant that pretends to know about Venezuela.
Français : J’écris ceci pour que vous puissiez expliquer aux ignorants qui croient tout savoir sur le Venezuela. 

Explication technique simple du 23 janvier en français

 - L'élection de Maduro en mai 2018 n'a aucune légalité ni légitimité. L'élection a été convoquée en dehors du système judiciaire (élection en mai pour être assermenté en janvier, convoquée par une assemblée constituante illégale, conditions extrêmement défavorables pour tout candidat contre Maduro, etc.).

Simple technical explanation of January 23 crisis in English

My excuses for a bad typo: for some reason Blogger repeated the first two paragraphs, something that did not happen in the French and Spanish versions.  When I proof read it it was a cache copy and thus I did not detect it.  Sorry for those who already had read this post entry. But the arguments still remain equally valid.
- The election of Maduro in May 2018 has no legality or legitimacy. The election was convened outside the legal system (election in May to be sworn in in January, convened by an illegal constituent assembly, extremely unfavorable conditions for any candidate against Maduro, etc.)

Explicación técnica simple del 23 de enero en español

- La elección de Maduro en mayo 2018 no posee ni legalidad ni legitimidad. La elección fue convocada fuera del ordenamiento legal (elección en mayo para juramentarse en enero, convocada por una asamblea constituyente ilegal, condiciones extremadamente desfavorables para cualquier candidato contra Maduro, etc)

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

23 de enero, bis repetita placent

Between 2003 and, say, 2015 I wrote furiously this blog denouncing the dictatorship that Chavez wanted to, started to, definitely installed in Venezuela.  And now, irony, when I should be typing furiously what seems to be the end of the regime I have got to drag myself in front of the computer.  I am not the same person.
Our next president?

Yet, since I plan to attend tomorrow's opposition rallies I shall write a short summary of the past 2 weeks to help people cut through the contradictory news; and sometimes misleading news from well intentionned journalists who are, I am afraid, coming a tad late to the party.  Last night for example the French TV called Guaidó "extreme right" which goes on to tell you to watch out for what you read.  This blog is, of course, perfect.

Sunday, January 13, 2019

And so we reached January 13, to everybody's great surprise

What has been remarkable in the last three days is what DID NOT happen. What happened was not necessarily meaningful, nor did it solve any problem but it contributed to set the base line for the next weeks, until January 23 unless the regime cracks down before. (1)

What happened was that Maduro did swear in at the high court (TSJ). As if his word had more value than Venezuelan currency.

And in the next two days the opposition at the National Assembly started the process to declare itself as the new government since Maduro election is not recognized and he did not swear in as the constitution demands. So he does not exist and any paper with his signature as of January 10 is worthless.

Thursday, January 10, 2019

January 9, the eve of "10 de enero"

The fateful day is in a couple of hours.  A brief review of where we stand at. In no particular order.  But first, the way the main drag of Carcas was covered today (and I presume other venues).

The banner reads "I am president" with an hashtag, you know, to make it more contemporary.

Monday, January 07, 2019

Reviewing the "10 de enero" myth: the end of the road

Three weeks ago I was commenting how dire the situation was as the fateful date of January 10 approached. Today things are clearing up and we may get surprises.

First, a brief recall.
1) An illegally elected Maduro on May 20 needs to be sworn in by the National Assembly.
2) the NA powers have been voided by the high court TSJ in an illegal way. No law passed by the NA is valid. Yet the swearing in itself is not a law and thus there is no way to annul the NA on that prerogative. 3) Maduro will not go to the AN for swearing in because not only he cannot do so legally but he cannot appear to be caving in to the NA legitimate demands.  You could talk about the Mexico wall deadlock, but you ain't seen no nothing compared to the deadlock here since 2015.
4) The NA cannot compromise with Maduro because his election was outside of the constitutional requirements, both in date and organization. If a fraction of the opposition would break away to make a new majority pact with chavismo representatives (absent since late 2015) it still would be illegal and that portion of the opposition would have no chance ever to get votes in future elections.