Tuesday, January 22, 2019

23 de enero, bis repetita placent

Between 2003 and, say, 2015 I wrote furiously this blog denouncing the dictatorship that Chavez wanted to, started to, definitely installed in Venezuela.  And now, irony, when I should be typing furiously what seems to be the end of the regime I have got to drag myself in front of the computer.  I am not the same person.
Our next president?

Yet, since I plan to attend tomorrow's opposition rallies I shall write a short summary of the past 2 weeks to help people cut through the contradictory news; and sometimes misleading news from well intentionned journalists who are, I am afraid, coming a tad late to the party.  Last night for example the French TV called Guaidó "extreme right" which goes on to tell you to watch out for what you read.  This blog is, of course, perfect.

Saturday, January 12, 2019

And so we reached January 13, to everybody's great surprise

What has been remarkable in the last three days is what DID NOT happen. What happened was not necessarily meaningful, nor did it solve any problem but it contributed to set the base line for the next weeks, until January 23 unless the regime cracks down before. (1)

What happened was that Maduro did swear in at the high court (TSJ). As if his word had more value than Venezuelan currency.

And in the next two days the opposition at the National Assembly started the process to declare itself as the new government since Maduro election is not recognized and he did not swear in as the constitution demands. So he does not exist and any paper with his signature as of January 10 is worthless.

Wednesday, January 09, 2019

January 9, the eve of "10 de enero"

The fateful day is in a couple of hours.  A brief review of where we stand at. In no particular order.  But first, the way the main drag of Carcas was covered today (and I presume other venues).

The banner reads "I am president" with an hashtag, you know, to make it more contemporary.

Sunday, January 06, 2019

Reviewing the "10 de enero" myth: the end of the road

Three weeks ago I was commenting how dire the situation was as the fateful date of January 10 approached. Today things are clearing up and we may get surprises.

First, a brief recall.
1) An illegally elected Maduro on May 20 needs to be sworn in by the National Assembly.
2) the NA powers have been voided by the high court TSJ in an illegal way. No law passed by the NA is valid. Yet the swearing in itself is not a law and thus there is no way to annul the NA on that prerogative. 3) Maduro will not go to the AN for swearing in because not only he cannot do so legally but he cannot appear to be caving in to the NA legitimate demands.  You could talk about the Mexico wall deadlock, but you ain't seen no nothing compared to the deadlock here since 2015.
4) The NA cannot compromise with Maduro because his election was outside of the constitutional requirements, both in date and organization. If a fraction of the opposition would break away to make a new majority pact with chavismo representatives (absent since late 2015) it still would be illegal and that portion of the opposition would have no chance ever to get votes in future elections.