Fifth update on the Venezuelan Recall Election
Is it all over?
I mean it, it is all over. We just do not know how it will be expressed.
On one hand I have received, from three sources, exit polls, at least one of them reliable. As usual this sort of information must be handled carefully and I merely retransmit it because it coincides with my gut feeling, and the faces I am seeing on TV. But I could be wrong, of course.
The three sort of coincide. The NO would only win in Vargas and Falcon. The SI would be winning by more than 70% in Miranda, Tachira, Margarita and by more than 60% in at least 4 more states. The SI would already be at 4.2 millions and 3.7 are needed. And there are still, this late at night, long lines. The CNE has decided on maintaining polling stations open until midnight!!!!!!!!! Translation: it is a good way to postpone the catastrophic result by a few hours while they decide what to do.
But what they decide to do is the problem. Facing a possible 60-40 defeat, in spite of the polls (which the reader will remember that I never believed) chavismo has some tough decisions to take. Sobella Mejias, one of the 5 CNE directors, just went on TV to remind, to the letter, what are the obligations of the army. Translation: the Army is up to no good. What could that be? Trying to avoid such a humiliating spread by cheating a little bit more here and there? Going directly for a coup? All is possible in particular after having seen Jorge Rodriguez, on the other side of the CNE of Mejias going on cadena less than an hour ago.
So there we are. It is 9:30 PM and it might be hours until the CNE emits its first statement. I must remind the reader that as soon as the 3.7 is passed and that the tendency to the SI victory is assured, Chavez automatically ceases to be president. Thus the interest to postpone as long as possible the fateful announcement. Postponing it forever been the preferred option, of course.
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PS: London and Paris show victories for the SI of at least 80%. I can hardly wait for the Miami result, though I understand that the foreign secretary has forbidden embassies to count votes until tomorrow. But apparently the order arrived too late in London or Paris.
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