Sunday, August 22, 2004

A reply from David Luhnow

David Luhnow is an author of the Wall Street Journal article that I commented on Friday night late. He was very kind in replying to me on my concerns. As promised, I am posting "as is" what he wrote to me. It is in Spanish. Translation tomorrow, it is too late and I just got it!

Hi Daniel. We are just as interested as you in getting to the bottom of this. What you can post on your blog is the following.

El Centro Carter dijo que estudio todos los resultados de las mesas y encontro 402 votos repetidos del “si” y 311 del “no”, de un total de mas de 12,000 mesas. Mande esas cifras al Dr. Rubin y le pregunte que eran las posibilidades de que se repitiera o el si o el no 700 veces (sumando 311 y 402) de 12,000 mesas. O sea, que probabilidad hay que de cada 17 mesas, dos maquinas tendrian el mismo resultado de o el si o el no (esa parte es facil – divides 12,000 por 700). El me dijo que las probabilidades de que se repiten una u otra son aproximadamente 1 en 17 veces – o sea, no muy distinto del resultado actual.

Ahora bien, eso es usando las cifras del Centro Carter. La oposicion dice que han encontrado mas de 2,000. Si es verdad, ya no seria estadisticamente probable. Hay que ver quien tiene la razon.

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