The first thing a casual observer might think in Venezuela is that there was an election and nobody won. Indeed at home I was not kept up at night with people celebrating in the streets. Actually, as I write, we do not know yet the results, any results even if you look at the CNE web page where there is only, finally, the Rodriguez communique of last night posted. A communique that did not say much and was trying mostly to make the CNE look good after yesterday's obvious manipulations.
But commentators are starting sprouting articles and interviews. The good news for this blogger is that they confirm what he was already writing last night. This does not necessarily reflect on the sapience of this blogger, but rather on how obvious the results for anyone with a semi objective mind. In no particular order:
SUMATE states that today there are less people trusting the CNE than yesterday. The rhetoric and obscure maneuvers of yesterday, the delay in the results, the unhinging of Rodriguez again, and many more are eventually hitting home: the CNE is unable to convince people to go and vote. Sumate promises a press conference later. Will be interesting to see their numbers.
Teodoro Petkoff in Tal Cual writes an editorial about the abstention being a result of chavistas upset with the direction the government has taken after the Recall Election. His competitor in "Las verdades de Miguel" of Miguel Salazar much closer to chavismo, chimes in! Well, not really as he tries to deflect the guilt of high abstention to Chavez party rather than Chavez himself.
The more and more prestigious Keller group gives already an analysis. First it debunks the pseudo myth that the CNE has tried to project that the abstention in municipal elections is 70%. It is around 48% in Venezuela's precedents (interestingly Salazar agrees with that). The 2000 figure that the CNE hangs to as a life raft is for a very atypical election totally skewed by an unpopular and useless trade union referendum imposed on it. But Keller goes further blaming abstention on the lack of honesty from the CNE, and the divorce between Chavez and his base since the Recall Election, such as the dislike for the exaggerated pro Cuban bent that all polls observe!
But it gets better as apparently rumors fly that the opposition might have gotten way more seats than planned in spite of the abstention. If this is true, then abstention was really as much a chavista phenomenon than an opposition one and something really important happened yesterday. Could this be a defeated victory for Chavez? To be continued.
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