Final Thoughts Before the Elections

by Alex Beech

Political marches induce hope in the best cases, and hysteria in the
worst. During the referendum, I noticed how a march can be
intoxicating - to see all those people in one place, to feel the
energy. But at the end of the day, millions stay home, and you never
know how those millions are going to vote in the privacy of their
voting booths.

There is a reality Venezuelans who oppose Chavez need to face if we're
going to move forward as a nation, and that is that Chavez may win on
Sunday. While Chavez has made colossal mistakes as a president,
there are still those who will happily vote for him. Why?

- For many in the ailing middle class and alienated upper class,
Chavez has destroyed jobs, scared foreign investors, plundered the
public sector, drained the country of its human capital, and generated
hate. But there are also those who have benefited from this
government, either directly or indirectly. How many bankers and
investors haven't made millions from recent debt transactions, from
dealings with corrupt politicians? New homes purchased on Park Avenue
and the Dominican Republic represent this wealth. And it's not a class
of nouveau riche, as the media likes to portray them. Or Bolivarian
bourgeoisie. Plenty of old money has also grown, and money, like
fungus, likes to stay where money grows. These people will vote for
Chavez.

- Old monsters are better than new monsters. This mentality
particularly applies to the poor. If you've always lived in a tin hut
with no running water and electricity, Chavez has spoken to your
dreams, even if nothing has materialized. He has spent millions on
tangible benefits, like missions and subsidized food. Even if the only
things some have gotten from the revolution is fresh apples and
aspirins, that's two more things than they had before. Add to that the
fervent promise of a house and an education, and you've got loyalty.
For those voters, there's no guarantee that a new president will
provide anything new. Moreover, there's no promise of continuity. With
Chavez, the new house might come, but with the new guy, what happens?
Nothing is guaranteed. Expectations, like fungus, prosper where
expectations grow. These people will vote for Chavez.

- Never underestimate the power of acknowledgement. After millions of
Venezuelans were ignored, personally and politically, for decades,
Chavistas came along and acknowledged them - spoke to them on the
street, gave them a voice. Humans are like children who are often
content with attention. When I was an international observer for the
Democratic Coordinator in 2004, I wanted to see a Mision at work. I
was taken to a Mision Robinson, where I spoke to a classroom of
Chavistas. One person who struck me was a woman who said, "when could
I ever speak to a minister or a councilman before? Now I can speak to
any politician." This woman will likely never get anything from a
Chavista politician, but the fact he acknowledged her guaranteed her
loyalty because she felt like a political actor in her country. People
like her will vote for Chavez.

- There are those who believe that Venezuela is on a longterm path
towards social and political equality, and that that can only be
achieved through a Marxist dialectic they see at work in Venezuela.
Ignoring any present realities, they will vote for Chavez.

- There are those who still feel disdain for the politicians of the
past, and they're scared that things will go back to the way they
were. The opposition includes everybody who isn't a Chavista. That's
a rather large menu, which includes fresh and vibrant faces, and old
faces which still reek of the past.

Even though the past few weeks have been magical in many ways – the
marches, the music, the colors –Venezuelans have developed an
extremist mentality that can only bring harm. It's either democracy or
dictatorship, victory or death, capitalism or communism, etc. This
infantile mentality has led to despair that has almost morphed into a
strange silence, as if the elections results were a life and death
matter.

While it would be great if Rosales won the election, and he may, the
Venezuelan opposition should also prepare for a Chavez victory. Chavez
enjoys at least 40% of support, and that's a conservative estimate.
While the Chavez administration has been a disaster - corrupt beyond
belief, incompetent, a violator of basic human dignity – Chavez is a
pragmatist and a survivor. To win the presidency, he campaigned with
the rhetoric of hatred. But to remain president, he knows he will need
to govern a nation that on the one hand hates him, and on the other
hand doubts him. That means moderation because repression isn't an
option. Too many people have marched against him, nailed themselves
to trees, and defected from his camp. Marx said, apparently, that
shame is the only true revolutionary sentiment, and Chavez has been
shamed into humility. There is no way, with the money that is flowing
through Venezuela, that he will implement a barter system or
expropriate property. His own people are more capitalistic and
materialistic in practice than their predecessors, and at the end of
the day, so is he.

The next four days are historical. They will be defined, not only by
the election, but by how Venezuelans react to their fate. The Chavez
government needs to respect the electoral process, guaranteeing
fairness. If fairness is evident, then the opposition needs to accept
whatever results may come with dignity and grace. Difficult times are
ahead regardless of who wins the election. No matter what side is
celebrating next week, wounds will need to be healed which will
require time, reason, and serenity.

Tags: chavez, venezuela, elecciones3d, rosales