Monday, May 12, 2008

A dangerous week for Chavez mental balance

We have been told that on May 15 the Interpol will tell us officially that the computer of Raul Reyes (RIP somewhere in an ex-FARC camp in Ecuador) is a legitimate source of information. That means that it was really his computer and the mails in it were addressed to him or written by him. Amen of other documents.

Now, readers of this blog and other informed folks around the planet have known for the longest of time that Chavez was in bed with the FARC. Evidence and proofs have long preceded anything found in that computer (and other computers by the way). After all, Granda, noted FARC terrorist, was living happily in Venezuela. But there were also less noted facts, not reported in the press but well known by folks interested in "turismo de aventura". For example the FARC having priority gas dispatch in Amazonas state, resulting in tourism organizations being less willing to organize trips there as they could not count anymore on a sure gas supply for their boats. And of course Ivan Marquez being received at Miraflores Palace: what was Chavez thinking that day?

No, we already knew that. The difference now is that there will be real documents that could not be excused away by Chavez (and Ecuador's Correa who had no business at all in cavorting with the FARC this early in his term).

Chavez of course will try to dismiss all of it, at least for his market at home. Overseas he knows he is toast even if Lula, in a strangely misplaced fit, calls Chavez the best president Venezuela has had in over a century. Somebody should charitably explain to Lula that we have had already plenty of Chavez like presidents such as Gomez and Castro and that the only novelty is that Chavez really has a lot of money. Well, I suppose that maybe Lula meant that Chavez was the best president ever for Brazil, on this I am willing to agree. But thinking of it, maybe Lula is informed enough on those Reyes computers to know that all the great Brazil juicy contract in Venezuela could see their end coming soon... (1)

Thus we must understand Chavez rant of yesterday as a preemptive apology? Excuse? Reverse attack? If anyone knows how real the info in Reyes computers is it is Chavez himself. Or why else would he be so hysterical about it these days?

Whatever it is, AGAIN, do not take his threats against Colombia at face value. The Venezuelan well fattened generals are now even less likely to go to war with Colombia to save Chavez ass. Be assured of that. Because it is not Venezuela's honor that needs to be saved, it is Chavez one who was stupid enough to risk it supporting the FARC. Note my kindness in allowing for Chavez to have any honor to begin with....

Now, the only real interesting question is what effect will all of these have on the Venezuelan public. I am afraid that our current general alienation will not affect much Chavez ratings one way or the other. Used to ten years of extended hand to receive free stuff form the state, most people have stopped caring about what countries have a common border with Venezuela and the dangers that Chavez represents. But that dog also has a bite as they soon will find out.

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1) That Lula interview was giving to Germany's Spiegel. I do not know whether it has anything to do with Anglea Merkel tour in LatAm about to start, but Lula will suffer already his first embarrassment post interview as Merkel declared bluntly that Chavez does not speak for Latin America. To which Chavez replied in his typical insulting ways. The Deutsche Welle had all the trouble in the world to write on it in their usual objective and balanced ways...

-The end-

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